Tradefair & Financials
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Think we could be heading into a double dip recession, not as severe as the last time tho. The stimulus in America is only having a plugging effect its not going to stop the tide of new home foreclosures. Job creation is limited and the LIBOR rate is slowly on the increase again. America is wounded, even with the gigantic stimulus the recovery is weak and unsustainable
China will not be the driver as many people think it will and Europeans nations are effectively strapped for cash, implosion on the way
China will not be the driver as many people think it will and Europeans nations are effectively strapped for cash, implosion on the way
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So , how is this double DIP going to happen. You have to remember that we are coming from a very low level. GDP fell 6% and has clawed very little back.
My feeling is a Double Dip will be avoided |
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you could have a string of new home foreclosures even strategic ones, putting pressure on US banking system once again. Liquidity looks to be tightening which will be bad for small business and new home buyers,confidence will diminsh once again,this will play out over the coming months. Rememeber America is leading us out of the recession, its weak and wounded leader
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Whether we double dip or not is immaterial really. The economy needs to rebalance, and if that means contracting a bit as we loose the unsustainable parts of the economy so be it.
What's important is that we have the right kind of growth. Consumer spending on chinese imports, credit based consumption and of course government spending will not help pay off our massive debts. |
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The return to negative growth numbers would seem inevitable. Our GNP numbers have been massaged by borrowing and the stimulus packages. The stimulus has ended and the borrowing levels will be reduced, or more correctly, slowed. Inflation is out of control, which reduces purchasing power, wage rises are over. Welcome to the world of stagflation. The party's over. I don't know about double dip, we've just come out of an electioneering period where the previous administration bought some time with borrowed money - it was just a pause. The bedrock of borrowing is quicksand and we're up to our necks.
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