Bought £10K of BP shares at 545p. Long-term winner?

All that I have to learn, as I said this first 10K was more like a punt.

an expensive punt

and you're so keen to re-buy them

thing is this kind of stock will always be overvalued due to hedge funds/banks etc buying them up at will (because they have to) so the private individual like us really has to get in cheaply when possible which isn't very often

You're mad letting a broker deal for you .. why ??

Just open an account & trade the price yourself for that kinda money

I must have put it in a confusing way, it is an online account for trading. Only the "advice" was from a broker.

I will enter again at £4, I think bp was £3.70 during the 2008 crisis, so £4 would be a good price for small investors like me to enter.

I will only by 2K at £4. My new strategy is to reduce exposure to any one sector, and aim for gains of 10% p.a. (i.e. conservative gains with lowest risk to capital)

I would advise you against rebuying at 400 to be honest.

Fedhater, your not making much sense regarding this investment. B.P will likely hit £4.00 by end of this week!! Leave them well alone until atleast they have completed the two relief wells. I told you several days ago this could ultimately drive BP out of the Gulf of Mexico, this senario is now being discussed by the media.

its a two month wait till pipe issue is resolved--aug

you need ba-lls of steel to hold this share

It sounds like you've got decent money to hand.Why not have a look at this for awhile,you should soon see roughly when to buy or sell.

Updata .Free Trial.

http://www.updata.co.uk/freetrial2/

b.p end on e-bay come august.

As I said, I'll be on BP again after they complete the relief well (on August). At this time BP will be at £4 or less.

I lost 2K here, but Soderling made me £1K today, and if my Nadal bets come until the final, I'll be more than 2K up in the French Open.

kohaku - Thanks, I'll have a look at that.

g.l fed.

An immense amout of learning to do for me, hopefully I'll have the basics in 3-6 months. This really is a multi-year project for me, the outcome being the ability to have gains of around 10% a year.

USA is a dangerous place to do business. They will rip off foreign companies at every opportunity if they get a chance through the courts. I don't believe the US courts are fair and balanced where foreign companies are concerned. This situation and the US 'legal system' will encourage thousands of lawsuits against BP which may continue for 20 years. BP could be employing 50 lawyers for 20 years or more on this.

You don't seem to get it
The trick would be to get on before they complete the wells or the price will be eaten up by those in the know once it's done
Which is why shares are risky business they don't just give free cash away

I'm only interested in making reasonable gains, so I no problem waiting until they've properly fixed it.

If the American want to put BP out of business, they must hammer Halliburton and Trasocean too.

Fair enough just trying to help but you saw how sharply things can change
You need to set yourself targets & exit points before you jump in
What price would you of sold your 5.45 in profit for example ?
If there's not much upside don't just gamble for the sake of it

I'd have been very happy to sell them at around 600p (around a 9% gain). I really do appreciate all the help and information given by you guys.

I am gathering the information I need and therafter I will study it and then only will I go into the next round of buying. One thing I hadn't realised previously was that traders can make money when share prices fall too.

A lot for me to learn, hopefully a lot to earn too! :)

Avoid these shares like the plague, when the hurricanes start blowing the heavy sh1te on shore, the company will be worthless.

I'm out of BP now, at a loss of 2K though. I hope BP falls like a rock, so I can buy at the cheapest price possible.

wait for the cap completeion and f kin lump on.

its gonna be a guessing game when it happens but you know the price is gonna jump between 10-20 % when the news breaks.

That's the critical bit, August seems to be the general view. I'm thinking somewhere around the end of July is the time to lump on.

BP have accepted that this disaster them a $6.5B, with an overall liabiltiy for all companies involved around $10B.

Research the Biotech industry Fed and forget BP; there is no bottom in sight.

Fedhater

Lots of advice you have on the thread is "after the event" - there are lots of wise guys then.

Bad luck with your trade and better luck next time.

I think there was at least one person who had shorted BP when they were about 540p, and most didn't buy it or short it. It's a steep learning curve for me and my first trade turned out to be a loss, but that hasn't put off trading whatsoever. It just means I have more to learn.

BIOTECH - Many have said that this will be similar to the IT/Computer sector. I have thought of investing in Biotech, but I have little idea about the companies operating in this sector. Finding a budding Microsoft of the Biotech world now would be the holy grail.

BP seems to have stabilised around 420-430, when they have control over the flow the price should rise to 460-470. Finally, the severity of punishment dished out by the US Gov will decide if BP will see 500p this year.

when the two supporting wells are completed aug---is it guaranteed that they will stop the oil leak?

Yep, that is the guaranteed method. That was how the worst ocean spill ever (Ixtoc 1) was stopped. The drillships will intercept the leaking pipeline underground the sea floor.

All measures taken now are temporary. I expect a 10%-20% rise on completion of pipeline interception.

ah! my mistake. Ixtoc 1 was capped first then the pipeline intercepted.

fedhater, sign up for free end of day charting from prorealtime. They never hassle you to buy anything and the charts are superb. Put the auto trendlines on and have a look at a bp chart on the daily, weekly, monthly. You may be suprised. As posted earlier a huge trendline had cracked on the monthly charts before this happened. The bounce back is quite clearly flagged on the daily. Fundamentals give a bias, but the picture is played out technically.

Do not be suprised if this rally goes to 4.70 and then falls again. Big gaps are often closed, then the trend resumes.

Ghostdog - That's my ultimate aim, I know BP will go up and then down and up again. The key is to know what price to enter and exit.

I've just got myself the FT guide to Investing and the Motley fool's guide to investing. I will substantially building my knowledge about companies in the market and the market itself.

"Never try and catch a falling knife" pretty sums up this whole thread. :)

I agree, if only I'd waited a few more days...I would talking about a huge profit to be made in the coming months.....alas, I was left with a huge loss.

"dont invest in shares the way the average man does" a great quote, many do tho.

Buy a book on technical analysis. Get books by Dr Elder and Sam Weinstein, top reads if your into investing.

How does technical analysis generally suggest dealing
with surprise events? Does it still claim validity for
the moving averages, even though the pre-shock prices
are still contributing to the value for the entire span
of those averages?

Soap Joined: 31 Oct 02
Replies: 1528 03 Jun 10 22:20 
Fedhater

Lots of advice you have on the thread is "after the event" - there are lots of wise guys then.


Yes .. because he was still intent on buying them back & as you can see from my advice he could be in a much worse position now they've dipped below £4

People like you don't even offer anything at all .. just hate on others trying to help

I'd be tempted to go all-in if they drop below 350p.

There are also traded options to consider - selling
puts appeals to me more than buying calls as I think
the upside could take a while to materialise. Worst
case scenario with selling a long-dated at-the-money
put if the shares reach 350p is that I might end up
having to buy the shares I was happy to pay 350p for
anyway, except that the price would have been reduced
by the premium received.

385p is very tempting. Should I wait for 350p or lower to invest again?

My aim is to buy BP at or near the bottom and Hold it for 5+ years.

why this obsession with BP?  Look for another share imo.

Look at it this way - you are way behind on 'market info' regards the BP leak (as are most people who are not working on the leak)so why invest in a non-level playing field.

Find a nice safe share which does not have any meaningful results out soon

I have already decided to split my investment into different sectors, BP represents the energy sector.

down again this morning ,went below 350 ,but as previous poster says we're too far behind events.

interesting story developing.....

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=19591

Missed the 350p! It seems trading at the start of the market is the best strategy. Always had huge movements then. In BP's case is has dropped and risen on almost evrery occasion.

A daytrader who has been buying BP at market start and selling it off after a while in the same day would be making an absolute fortune.

Iam in after nibling at them @ 375, will be jumping out quick;y if they aint goin my way

I've made my decision, bought £2K at 360p. It is bound to appreciate greatly over the next few years. BP's known assets are around $236B.

This price is justabout perfect for smalltime investors like me.

This price is justabout perfect for smalltime investors like me

lol - wtf is that supposed to mean??

I've bought at £3.70 - but not my whole ISA allowance for the year[:(]

good grief there's always some 'investors' who are willing to catch a falling knife!

theyre crazy, still showing no signs of the fall stopping.

looks like back over400 tomorrow,wish id bought a few today

I caught the falling knife at 545p an dlost £2K if my £10K investment. Now the time has come to make profit.

B.P closed up 12% in the U.S. markets and it is a foregone conclusion that the price will rise tomorrow. I'm not being greedy as before and so am only investing 1/4th of my funds. The rest will go into different sectors.

Too may armchair traders here, who aren't prepared to either lose or make money. The fact that I lost money previously doesn't mean I shouldn't take this opportunity!

The city is full of thieves, and small time investors like me(general public) are their quarry. These crooks need to be hanged from the tower of london.

the city is full of thieves because you made a bad decision originally? whose fault was it that you decided to buy when you did?

haha! The bad decision was due to me and me only. That the city is full of thieves is well known to the general public, and has been for a while. Here, I am investing my own money. If I make a loss then there is no burden on the taxpayer.

Perosnally, the goverment should have let the city collapse into the cesspool it had created. The city's philosophy is "privatised profit and socialised risk".

Fedhater

Not sue I agree that EVERYONE in teh city is a thieve... Any more that anyone else that tries to earn a living for themselves. Plumbers, decorators , car salesman, you name it. All try to sell their goods and services for as much money as possible. 

Good luck to you on your investment. Sont think you can go wrong. BP at a 13 year low!! Fill your boots son!

Personally I am a Lloyds TSB man myself. This organisation is an absolute MONSTER. When it catches fire the profits will be astui

Lloyds look a good price, what do you think about RBS?

I don't mind anyone making a living, but surely no industry/sector/business should be able to bring an economy down! Without taxpayers intervention, the banks would have collapsed, and most likely the entire economy.

The financial sector has too big an influence here.

Get real chisel
City traders offer NOTHING to Society they just happily milk it dry ... then cry when it all goes wrong

anyway on a lighter note BP are still falling though a lot more gradually

I'm considering a buy around 3.25-3.35p what you guys think ?

Don't even think of buying!!! Lots more bad news will follow shortly!!!

The meeting with Obama ..
I think he's bluffing a bit personally he hasn't got a clue but will happily bleed them dry

I'll take your advice though & leave them alone

I did say earlier that it would probably try to close the gap and carry on down. It couldn't even close the gap, big sign of weakness.

I used to buy things on the way down, but you get tired of it eventually. If people would just put a 50 and 200 moving average on a daily chart they'd save a lot of money.

True .. but this is a Huge situation & not the norm

I've given up trying to chart stuff what's the point when one snippet of hope results in a 50 pt bounce ?

It's all a gamble

Agree that this is not the norm, but you can bet that this stock is bouncing at technical points. Spread out a bit more than usual, but they are still there. A 50 point bounce is technical in itself. The market loves 50's.

It's a strange thing, but a market often breaks down technically before bad fundamentals come out. Sometimes this is just insider dealing, but sometimes it can't be explained.

Victor Neiderhoffer is a hardcore quant and used to be a top fund trader (until he traded with no stops), and he claims the intermediate trend changes often line up with a full moon! I've seen this happen, but need to keep some records before I could take it seriously as a confirming indicator...

Seems this is turning into a general trading/investing thread, GREAT!


What is the cheapest way to trade? What is the best software/book on technical analysis?

So where's all this bad news & what do the charts say now ?

You can make a LOT more money backing horses with a proven strategy-which i have developed-backing a % of bank componding after each bet.
using this technique my bank has grown rapidally in a very short term.

1 bet already has won today @15-8,
1 bet tonight; BANKSTAR,7.50 FFOS LAS.

There's a legendary guy on the net, screen name magellen, who turned 800 euros into 7 million in three years, scalping the yen. So I think I'll stick with learning this thanks.

fedhater, the best beginner book I've read is Technical Analysis for Dummies by Barbara Rockerfeller. It covers everything.

The market runs on trendlines and channels, and horizontal support and resistance. Best thing is to get a demo account and just look at a short time frame, draw trendlines and duplicate them into a channel. And just watch and see what happens at those points.

Moving averages are also very important, the 20 EMA on five minute charts usually gives support and resistance. It's just held the euro for more than two hours. The 50 EMA on the 15 minute chart stopped the retracement after a huge move this morning.

It depends what you want to do. End of day on 'prorealtime' is free and it gives auto trend lines that are useful, but too long term for me. If you want to trade stocks tradefair is alright, spreadbetting is cheap and you can go from a pound a point up.

I'd really recommend an Oanda forex demo, you get to try things out for free and their charts are amazing. You might think short term charts are irrelevant and forex is not for you, but you get a lot of quick experience of how things move. The charts are the same, certainly a 30 second chart of the euro looks exactly like a daily if you take the labels off.

Both the outfits I've mentioned don't hassle you for a phone number or to open a real account.

One last thing that 'works' that you don't often see mentioned is Ichimoku, which is used on a lot of Japanese trading floors.  But it's too much to go into here. Gives an instant idea of trend, S&R and breakouts.
Oanda has it, I even use a fast version on a ten second chart, the purists don't recommend that...

800 Euros into 7million in 3 years,we would all like some of that,alas, my formula wont "guarantee" returns like that,but betting bank should double every 2-3 weeks during summer,ease off during winter ,too few bets,but these type of returns,as you will be well aware,certainly beat your average isas.
Bytheway BANKSTAR lost but ill live to fight another day

lol/

lol!

thats the biggest pile of shyte iav ever heard. One made up by one of the main spreadbetting firms no doubt!!

Hasn't donkey races got its own forum [:(]

He started on Oanda and then moved to direct market. If you can find a spreadbetting firm with fractional pips, 5 second charts and instant execution let me know.

Do you realise how many fluctuations a market has at a ten second scale? He does dozens of trades a day at hundreds of euros a point. He also won an audited trading competition using the same methods with an incredible rate of return.

His achievements are epic, but really its still small change compared to the big forex traders. They make a couple of million in a good day. 

Perhaps if you did what he did, sit in front of a 10 second yen chart for months, you'd see that it's possible, but I doubt you will.

if it was that easy we be all at it, what stoploss does he use??

I never said it was easy, I just said it can be done. I'm working at it on the euro today and losing in heavy chop. But almost every mistake I make I can see the reason. Sometimes I'm actually selling my buy signals and vice versa as it goes nuts back and forth. He doesn't do that...

He has a hard stop of 20 pips and closes manually, the stop is only there for disaster. He closes out if it goes max 3 pips against him. And he is ruthless.

Mr Moonbeam, 1 "donkey" running on my system today,CLASSIC DESCENT 5-10 Redcar, so far this month 18 winners from 47 bets  56 pts .

Magellen isn't real, not the trading one anyway. You don't turn 700 euros into 7 million in 3 years, it's impossible to do this. Much better off playing the lottery.

Fedhater     Joined: 20 Mar 04
Replies: 117 04 Jun 10 01:04 
BIOTECH - Many have said that this will be similar to the IT/Computer sector. I have thought of investing in Biotech, but I have little idea about the companies operating in this sector. Finding a budding Microsoft of the Biotech world now would be the holy grail.


DNA sequencing is the next big thing. There are a number of companies aiming for the magical "$1000 genome". This will happen within 2-3 years. Whichever company achieves this first will sky rocket in price, we are talking massive increases here, the potential of this is that great. It will literally revolutionise healthcare if someone achieves it.

I believe your best bet for this area is in a company called Illumina. Two reasons for this.

Firstly, they are the current market leader in this area, so at worst you are going to make small gains simply because it is a growing industry.

Secondly, they are not only trying to develop a $1000 genome sequencer themselves, they also have the rights to sale and market another leading technology being developed by a small start up company, oxford nanopore. So essentially you are getting two chances at it for the price of one.

So at worse, you will get modest gains from this. At best, you will be rolling in it. Within 2-3 years a company will have made a $1000 sequencer, you just need to have bought into the right one

It's not impossible as he did it and many others will do similar things in the future. But I really can't be bothered to continue trying to explain why.

Good luck with your trade, but if I were you I'd give up the current strategy of buying long term downtrends with no idea where the nearest support is.

Look up "7 to 7 trader",

He turned £7,000 into £7,000,000 in 2 years. And is documented on articles (somewhere along the line his broker shafts him).

what worked for him mightnt work for you, everyone has different personalities and trading styles to suit them

Investing is a far better proposition for those like me, who have little time to trade. There are many more successful investors than the traders you speak of. What about the traders who lost it all? I'm not a big fan leveraging to much.

My aim is to have a £500K portfolio by 2020. I will be investing at least £5K - £10K per year, and there is a good chance I'll hit my targets. Ultimately, I'd like to have gains of £20K per year from portfolio. These gains combined with my salary should allow me a comfortable life.

Fedhater**** The next Warren Buffett? Just love your optimisim!! [;)]

and another 7% off BP so far today !!!

bp were always one of my fav shares,when i sold at 580 hoping to buy lower,and see them soar over 600 ,its not a good feeling ,i still feel that those who hold on will see 600+, within 24 months .but it is a real gamble.

fedhater ur setting urself unrealistic targets which will leave urself dissapointed, a 20% yearly return when investing in blue chips would be a excellent return,ud smash mang professional hedge fund managers with that return. Investing in small caps agressively could make u win or loose alot.

By the sounds of it value investing might suit you, so a pure contraian midset u should develop. American housing developers is contrarian play, hold on for a couple of years and you could be up 60%.

"Dont invest in stocks the way the average man does"

This guy has a very good blog using some simple methods. Basically he just finds a trend, waits for the market to retrace and then sells or buys as it breaks again in the direction of the trend.

http://maoxian.com/

Right at the bottom of the main page there are some charts of his shorts on bp. Every time optimists buy it he's just waiting for a break back down. Although he does say he'd be careful shorting now as it may be bottoming out and all the bad news could be in the price.


There is nothing to stop longer term traders using daily or weekly charts to do the same thing. Investing is fine in a bull market, or any market if you are expert, but for a lot of people it just turns into blind faith and no stop.

Thanks Ghostdog and Bio.


Dividends are very important to me, not becuase I want a regular income but because I want a stable growth of my capital. Is the talk of a double dip recession more fear mongering or an actual reality? I certainly won't be buying any equity if that's the case.

Recently, I've been researching "Gilts" and "Company Bonds with guaranteed return of capital", I've decided to invest £5K in this sector. I am researching ETFs (exchange traded funds) right now. I've decided I want only a 1/3rd of my investment in straight equities.

look up Mark Shipman, I bought his courseware,his style would suit you, his top guy and has a very simple system. His got two books out aswel

Fedhater - Fair play to you for putting up your thoughts on here. Iv been doing this for over 25 years and I'm still learning, and will be until the day I lose my marbles or die - and I'll never know anything like enough - however I've bought a few BP over the last few days and will happily keep nibbling away until the trend turns. I have seen many investors come and go over the years - dont lose your shirt on one trade because you think it's right. There is always someone else who knows more about a stock than you so use the trend but also use good old fundamental analysis as well - and Dont rush - There is always tomorrow!

no country will let bp drill at this depth..unless they put up 10 billion;and develop deep sea subs to work the rig........robots obviously havent worked....be a long before they recover;if at all.

time

ttt CAPS ON

£3.90 - back in profit for me now after they were down to 296

there was a thread on here back 2008 to pile in on RBS @ 80p.  There are still waiting

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BP-to-sell-assets-for-7-apf-3077169179.html?x=0

Sorry guys, seems that yahoo has moved on as it were; page no longer available.
However I reproduce a paragraph from the Kansas City Star, but you have all prolly heard of this by now:

Selling some parts

BP PLC said Tuesday it was selling assets in the U.S., Canada and Egypt to Apache Corp. for $7 billion to help pay costs from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Some or all of the proceeds will go toward a $20 billion fund to help pay cleanup costs and damages.

Sorry to but in. But when you sell shares how long does it take for the money to hit your bank account?

Cheers.

super Hans - Took 3 days for money to clear into my bank account after I sold BP at 430p a few months ago.

At 400p now. Will be at 500p by end of year. All those who bought at 300s will make a fortune.

Still hanging in there Fed?

Back to 500p now, and should rise further on the latest news with russia.

keep the faith

12 years later


411.60

Getting  back to base now £5.35 today