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Fedhater
11 May 10 23:42
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Date Joined: 20 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 159 | Blogger: Fedhater's blog
First ever punt in the market, bought more on gut instinct than thorough analysis.

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Replies: 157
By:
Banwana
When: 12 May 10 06:40
Yup.
By:
Fedhater
When: 12 May 10 15:42
Used up my £10K ISA allowance with it too. The return might not be amazing, but atleast it will be far better than my "high interest" account.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 12 May 10 22:43
oil will be at $50 by year end
By:
crediter
When: 13 May 10 01:09
probably drop like a stone..
By:
Fedhater
When: 14 May 10 16:24
At 535p now. Knowing my luck , it'll be at 500p by next week. Hopefully it'll recover to 650p-700p by 2011.
By:
luslen
When: 14 May 10 16:58
''The world of offshore drilling will be a different place after this disaster''.Tony Hayward.
By:
Fedhater
When: 14 May 10 18:39
The reality is our civilization is built on oil, and demand for it will increase year upon year for many more years to come.It will eventually be replaced, but that it far into the future.

It does look like BP will be be around 500p for atleast 6-10months. Personally, I wish I had waited and bought at 500p, but Im happy with 545 too.
By:
Soft in Places
When: 14 May 10 23:48
This is going to cost BP a years worth of profit,maybe more.
By:
Fedhater
When: 15 May 10 00:29
There is absolutely noway it'll cost them a years profit, maybe a quarters.

Exxon paid out around $4B for a much greater disaster, which pretty mush destroyed the coastline.

This oil spill will have far less severe consequences, this is a pipsqueak compared to Ixtoc 1.
By:
wykhamist
When: 16 May 10 13:11
I have to disagree with those who thing BP is oversold. The fact is that right now their liabilities are unlimited. I used to do research in relief well drilling and I know that the chances of the first relief well successfully fixing everything are quite slim. In fact, this a problem that could drag on for years.

Also, BP have a huge capital commitment in Iraq which is another project I do not have very good feelings about given the appalling commercial terms they agreed to.

Unfortunately most pension funds have significant exposure to BP shares, so we all stand to lose out if they go under.
By:
Fedhater
When: 16 May 10 16:54
They are drilling two holes simultaneously, and moreover they are using dispersants at the source. This essentially breaks a large portion of the oil into harmless fractions.

Fianlly, most of the oil is underwater and will be decomposed by bacteria. This area of the Guls is also a natural dead zone created by the waste coming from the Mississipi.

BP would be responsible for about 65% of the liabilities, Halliburton and others will cover the rest. Even with a total liability of $10B, they will only pay out $6B.

I feel it will come down to 500p, and wish I'd waited. I will out another £5K at 500p. 600p should be the minimum for BP.
By:
billy bones
When: 16 May 10 18:52
I don't trust the americans when it comes to legal claims on foreign companies.
By:
Fedhater
When: 16 May 10 19:33
They will have to claim equally from American companies too. The more BP pay, the more Halliburton and the others have to pay.

As I said, even if the payout was $10B, BP is liable for a fraction of that. They would end up paying around 60% of it.

The price will fall for the next 6 or so months and end up at about 500p. At this price I urge everyone to buy, don't buy at 530p or at 545p like I did.
By:
Mc Moonbeam
When: 17 May 10 07:30
Like my mom used to say to me ... when it's gone .. it's gone ..
By:
Fedhater
When: 17 May 10 21:21
But before it is gone, the price should appreciate a lot. Still, may many years left.
By:
Fedhater
When: 21 May 10 14:42
AS I had predicted, BP is treding towards 500p. It will be there or lower by next week.

THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY!
By:
mightymoyes
When: 24 May 10 18:44
you said earlier it could take 6 months or so to end up there, now it could be lower than that by next week!
By:
Akak
When: 24 May 10 20:35
BP will fall a lot further!!! Absolute fury in Louisiana.
I work out there, and they have handled this very poorly. This has been the only topic of conversation on radio and tv for the last month! Could ultimately see BP moving out of the Gulf of Mexico!! They need the goodwill of the American people, and believe me there is absolutely nil.
By:
luslen
When: 24 May 10 20:52
They deserve all the flak they are getting , awful penny pinching company , i hope they are punished big time for this.
By:
StadiumStatus
When: 24 May 10 23:11
during the worst of the '08 recession they bottomed out at 376p. cant really see this oil spill having the same affect as a global decline in demand, but dont think its time to buy either yet
By:
deepwater
When: 25 May 10 12:14
BP making a further attempt to stop leak next few days

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html

live pic
By:
Fedhater
When: 25 May 10 17:48
483p now, heading to 450p, maybe even to 400p. Just wish I had waited, instead of jumping at 545.

I'll be buying £5K more at 400-450p. I still think BP will recover to 600p by 2011/2012.
By:
jumpstart
When: 25 May 10 18:36
if they dont block this leak tommorrow , along with all the other news korea etc the spooked market may drag bp even lower by the end of the week i hope .... it is a long term investment for sure
By:
Mc Moonbeam
When: 26 May 10 01:28
I don't even think they know how to .. do they .. the disaster of the 90's took 9 months to stop !
By:
Fedhater
When: 26 May 10 18:19
The Ixtoc 1 was in the 70s or 80s.

BP, Halliburton and the rest did fvck up, and will be punished, but at 400-450p there is huge value for long term investors.

Demand for oil is rising and this will continue for a while.
By:
crediter
When: 26 May 10 18:20
says ..possible 42 billion liability..worst way...hope it sorted quick.
By:
Fedhater
When: 27 May 10 21:57
o% chance of a 42 Billion liability. It's political Hot Air. Even the Supreme Court ruled in Exxon's favour, regarding punitive damages.
By:
crediter
When: 27 May 10 22:56
this makes exons spill more like a splash on a garage forcourt
By:
wykhamist
When: 29 May 10 23:48
Latest attempt to surface kill the well has failed. I believe we will see the shares drop to around 450 or lower next week.

Anyone with any sense would have took the recent bounce to 520 odd as a chance dump their stock. Probably too late now, although if you could get 480 on monday you should take it.

There is also no guarantee the relief wells will work. Coupled with the latest falls in the oil price and likelihood of less or no dividend I can only see the shares heading further south.
By:
crediter
When: 30 May 10 09:25
apparently slicks as big as scotland.....surely new safety features regarding oil drilling must come into place....could cost all companies millions.
By:
Akak
When: 30 May 10 11:32
B.P have some extremely large projects ready to kick of in the Gulf of Mexico! This could see them put on the back burner for years!!! Get out while you can
By:
Biodiesel
When: 30 May 10 12:40
its a bloddy well disaster for BP
By:
Fedhater
When: 30 May 10 15:49
I have made my decision now, BP has utterly failed to bring a stop to the oil leak, and now it won't be stopped at least until august. BP should be 400p by then.

I hope I can get 480p on Monday. Overall my first punt on the market and my first loss too.

I will buy BP once it bottoms out at around 400p.
By:
Akak
When: 30 May 10 16:32
Sensible move !!! Unlike your initial buy!
By:
Fedhater
When: 30 May 10 17:44
This is my first trade and I will have made a loss of more than £1K, although the loss was entirely due to my greed.

I hope BP falls like a rock until around august/september (when the two drilling platforms finally intercept and cut off the oil flow). I will then invest that £9K, I expect that over a year or so it will rise enough to cover my initial losses and return me a reasonbale profit.
By:
PRETTY IN PINK
When: 30 May 10 17:57
You don't seem to understand, they may never be able to stop the oil flow. The relief wells will only reduce the pressure from the fractured pipe. This oil may be flowing into the gulf for decades, although at a reduced rate! Still thinking of buying?
By:
luslen
When: 30 May 10 20:35
Fedhater you won.t get any price monday as the markets are closed , but i fear when the market does open Tuesday things are going to be ugly and even more ugly for BP.

Spains debt downgrade which came through late Friday is going to be damaging to the market in general , but for BP it will be a double Whammy and i think you will be lucky to get 450p on Tuesday .

Looks like you've fallen victim to that old city saying about catching a " falling knife " . Good Luck.
By:
OLD HEAD
When: 30 May 10 22:47
cant see them above£4 if they are i'd sell if their not i'd sell,take the hit and get some sleep.
By:
Fedhater
When: 31 May 10 00:02
I've already executed the sell order through by broker at 494p, although I won't get this price. 480p and I'llbe very happy.

Unfortunately I did catch a falling knife...but fortunately I'm exiting before it does anymore damage.
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