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As you know the reserve bank lifted rates last week to a cash rate of 4%.Variable mortgage rates are 6.25%.
Interestingly I saw at NAB bank deposit rates for 3 years @ 6.8% 2yrs 6,6% and 9 months 6.3%.
Clearly the banks are pricing in an average rat above 6.8% over the next 3 years.In order to be profitable rates will have to go well over 7% to make a profitable average.Lets say they peak at 8% or 1.75% above now.
Add this to a recovery in usa consumption at some point in the next 3 years leading to more demand for china goods leading to more demand for resources supplied by-u guessed it, Australia.Hence pushing the aud higher.
This would lead you to think the aussie is headed higher.maybe much higher.Might take 3 years but this could be one for the investors.
Interestingly I saw at NAB bank deposit rates for 3 years @ 6.8% 2yrs 6,6% and 9 months 6.3%.
Clearly the banks are pricing in an average rat above 6.8% over the next 3 years.In order to be profitable rates will have to go well over 7% to make a profitable average.Lets say they peak at 8% or 1.75% above now.
Add this to a recovery in usa consumption at some point in the next 3 years leading to more demand for china goods leading to more demand for resources supplied by-u guessed it, Australia.Hence pushing the aud higher.
This would lead you to think the aussie is headed higher.maybe much higher.Might take 3 years but this could be one for the investors.
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I assume you mean AUD / USD?
What about when the US start raising interest rates cleverclogs?
What about when the US start raising interest rates cleverclogs?
yes pastie aud/usd.You could argue that usa may raise rates thus negating some of the aud positives.However thats not certain.With deposit rates here ABOVE mortgage rates already interest rate rises in aust seem the strongest of possibilities.This can't be said about usa.
The trouble I find with Australia and its economy is that it is a bit of a one trick pony.
Take away the resource boom and what do you have ?
Not a lot imo.
Not much of a manufacturing base, a limited pool of executive talent, no exceptional entrepreneurial skills.
Just a nice , easy going place, known for its obsession with sport and relaxation.
Also the pros can and will do whatever they want with the currency, up or down.
As far as betting on it long term particularly againgst the US dollar, would all be a bit too speculative for me I'm afraid to say.
But each man to his own.
I must say Mr Ben, I think I much prefer your short term trading skills to your long term investing abilities.
But again I could be just as wrong on this as on anything else.
Take away the resource boom and what do you have ?
Not a lot imo.
Not much of a manufacturing base, a limited pool of executive talent, no exceptional entrepreneurial skills.
Just a nice , easy going place, known for its obsession with sport and relaxation.
Also the pros can and will do whatever they want with the currency, up or down.
As far as betting on it long term particularly againgst the US dollar, would all be a bit too speculative for me I'm afraid to say.
But each man to his own.
I must say Mr Ben, I think I much prefer your short term trading skills to your long term investing abilities.
But again I could be just as wrong on this as on anything else.
aus seems to be about 3/4 years behind the rest of the world
they are currently going through our mid 2000's property boom
they are currently going through our mid 2000's property boom
No I don't think that is true at all.
They had a fizzy property boom about 5 years ago which peaked around 2005/6 and it is now moving forward again but more slowly.
Their property market is robust though I will admit though.
Aussies have always loved their real estate.
They had a fizzy property boom about 5 years ago which peaked around 2005/6 and it is now moving forward again but more slowly.
Their property market is robust though I will admit though.
Aussies have always loved their real estate.
yes botty yu are absolutly correct.Aust is a one trick pony, everything is running off the back of resourses.Take it away to zero and we would be totally bankrupt.However if believe you china will not collapse , if you the usa economy recovers at some stage then aussie economy rolls on.
I'm not an investor but a trader as you know.But the case for a rising aud is strong and getting stronger.
Re the property market, the beginnings of a boom is now occurring in sydney and melbourne but not in the rest of the country.Our government is hell**on bring more immigrants in, we used to get 80k a year, that went to 125 k just 3 yrs ago, the 180k last year and this years target is 275k!
we have a capacity to absorb about 70k.Almost all of these immigrants settle in sydney and melbourne.Theres even a new political party here called"limited population party" or something like that which is gaining in popularity here.
In any case I have bought in sydney for contruction and my house in brisbane goes on the market just 2 weeks from now.We will see how strong the brisbane market is.
I'm not an investor but a trader as you know.But the case for a rising aud is strong and getting stronger.
Re the property market, the beginnings of a boom is now occurring in sydney and melbourne but not in the rest of the country.Our government is hell**on bring more immigrants in, we used to get 80k a year, that went to 125 k just 3 yrs ago, the 180k last year and this years target is 275k!
we have a capacity to absorb about 70k.Almost all of these immigrants settle in sydney and melbourne.Theres even a new political party here called"limited population party" or something like that which is gaining in popularity here.
In any case I have bought in sydney for contruction and my house in brisbane goes on the market just 2 weeks from now.We will see how strong the brisbane market is.
cut and paste
check the last paragraph especially.
Australia Business Confidence Strong in February
Published: Monday, 8 Mar 2010 | 8:48 PM ET
Australian business confidence rose strongly for a second straight month in February while sales and profits both recovered from their January dip, providing further evidence the economy was running at a brisk pace.
The monthly survey of over 400 firms by National Australia Bank showed its measure of business confidence rose 4 points to +19 in February. That was the highest since last November, which itself was the highest reading since 2002.
The survey's measure of business conditions rebounded 5 points to +8, as sales and profitability improved while employment stayed around historically strong levels.
Mining showed the largest improvement, thanks to high commodity prices and robust Asian demand, followed by retailing, transport & utilities and recreation/personal services.
* Australia Job Ads Surge to Year-High in February
* Australia GDP Picks Up Pace in Q4
* Australia Lifts Cash Rate to 4%
* Australia Business Investment Jumps
* Private Equity Chill in Australia?
Importantly, the index of forward orders climbed 10 points to +6 in February, suggesting the pick up in activity had further to run. The strength of demand may have surprised firms since they had to run down inventories in the month, that index dropping 5 points to -4.
The employment index dropped a point to +5, but remains above its long-term average and far above last year's lows down near -30. Labour costs remained subdued, as were economy-wide prices. Capacity utilisation dropped to 80.7 percent.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the upbeat survey supported the outlook for further increases in interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent early this month and flagged more moves as the economy strengthened.
"We expect rates to be around 4.75 percent by end-2010," said Oster. "We now have rate rises pencilled in for May, August and November. That said, every meeting in 2010 is probably live and a decision will very much be data dependent."
C
check the last paragraph especially.
Australia Business Confidence Strong in February
Published: Monday, 8 Mar 2010 | 8:48 PM ET
Australian business confidence rose strongly for a second straight month in February while sales and profits both recovered from their January dip, providing further evidence the economy was running at a brisk pace.
The monthly survey of over 400 firms by National Australia Bank showed its measure of business confidence rose 4 points to +19 in February. That was the highest since last November, which itself was the highest reading since 2002.
The survey's measure of business conditions rebounded 5 points to +8, as sales and profitability improved while employment stayed around historically strong levels.
Mining showed the largest improvement, thanks to high commodity prices and robust Asian demand, followed by retailing, transport & utilities and recreation/personal services.
* Australia Job Ads Surge to Year-High in February
* Australia GDP Picks Up Pace in Q4
* Australia Lifts Cash Rate to 4%
* Australia Business Investment Jumps
* Private Equity Chill in Australia?
Importantly, the index of forward orders climbed 10 points to +6 in February, suggesting the pick up in activity had further to run. The strength of demand may have surprised firms since they had to run down inventories in the month, that index dropping 5 points to -4.
The employment index dropped a point to +5, but remains above its long-term average and far above last year's lows down near -30. Labour costs remained subdued, as were economy-wide prices. Capacity utilisation dropped to 80.7 percent.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the upbeat survey supported the outlook for further increases in interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent early this month and flagged more moves as the economy strengthened.
"We expect rates to be around 4.75 percent by end-2010," said Oster. "We now have rate rises pencilled in for May, August and November. That said, every meeting in 2010 is probably live and a decision will very much be data dependent."
C
It's not so much a case of hte Aussie $ going higher, but more a case of the pound falling. Investing in Aussie $ will protect your purchasing power much like gold but I would expect to make a fortune in real terms.
aussie dollar last 2 weeks
26 feb close 89.53
2 march close 90.45
5 march close 90.75
9 march trading 91.61
26 feb close 89.53
2 march close 90.45
5 march close 90.75
9 march trading 91.61
MrBen check out price of gold in AUS dollars. Currencies don't rise they only fall at different rates.
overcapacity in China is now a reality, the property bubble cant sustain itself, it never does, Chinnese economy to radically cool, wel say 3-4%
If you look at the Ozi dollar, I think its ran it major bull course with the downside more of a possibility. Its trading a range now
1 trick ponies do fall!
If you look at the Ozi dollar, I think its ran it major bull course with the downside more of a possibility. Its trading a range now
1 trick ponies do fall!
im with live4. as stated 2 years ago here all fiat currencies are being devalued, albeit gradually thus far, so no one has really caught on other than those watching the price of raw materials. sooner or later the gradual fall is going to become a rapid fall imho.
fair play though for making some short term gains. just be careful and dont be greedy.
fair play though for making some short term gains. just be careful and dont be greedy.
live 4 -aud priced in gold? why would that matter.What matters is buying something at one price and selling it at another.Buy it lower sell it higher, thats called a profit.It might still be down in gold terms but the profit is made.You can then withdraw those REAL dollars and spend them.The gold comparison is theoretical and so not relevant.Interesting from an academic standpoint but not relevant to making a profit.
biodiesel has a major point.Aust is totally dependant on the china equation, if china falls aust crashes.If you think china is due for economic turmoil the you could short the AUD.However I don't believe china will fall.I always thought china should crash in theory.However I've changed my thoughts.The reality is that everytime theres a problem the govt simpply changes the rules overnight to avoid any crisis, there is over capacity, there is bubbles of all kinds but it just doesnt stop.I'm bullish china.
biodiesel has a major point.Aust is totally dependant on the china equation, if china falls aust crashes.If you think china is due for economic turmoil the you could short the AUD.However I don't believe china will fall.I always thought china should crash in theory.However I've changed my thoughts.The reality is that everytime theres a problem the govt simpply changes the rules overnight to avoid any crisis, there is over capacity, there is bubbles of all kinds but it just doesnt stop.I'm bullish china.
Mrben 10 Mar 22:57
I'm bullish china.
what happened to your 'China going back to living in mud huts' theory?
do i need to bump that thread for a laugh? :D
or, god forbid, did you actually pay attention to some of what people said on that thread in reply to your nonsensical opening post?
I'm bullish china.
what happened to your 'China going back to living in mud huts' theory?
do i need to bump that thread for a laugh? :D
or, god forbid, did you actually pay attention to some of what people said on that thread in reply to your nonsensical opening post?
move on dimwit- subversion, melv, eton hogg - who ever you are today.
aaaw come on MrBen, dont make me bump the thread
seriously, how have you gone from mud huts to bullish? you have to admit its a bit of a change of opinion :D
seriously, how have you gone from mud huts to bullish? you have to admit its a bit of a change of opinion :D
further aussie data cut and paste.
Australia Jobs Flat in February after Strong Run
Australian employment barely rose in February as hiring took a breather after a very strong run, though the jobless rate remained low at 5.3 percent and full-time employment showed healthy growth.
The Australian dollar slipped and bill futures edged up as the market trimmed the chance of a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next policy meeting on April 6.
Data showed 400 jobs being added in February, compared to Reuters forecasts for a rise of 15,000.
"The numbers were slightly softer than expected but the data was fairly mixed. All told, it's not the sort of numbers that will change where things will go from here with rates. I see 4.25 percent by the end of the year," said Stephen Roberts, economist with Nomura.
housing numbers
Australian home loans fell the most in nearly eight years in January, hit by the scaling back of government grants to buyers and higher mortgage rates, suggesting past increases in interest rates were starting to bite.
The 7.9 percent drop in mortgage commitments in January came as a complete surprise to analysts who had forecast a 2.0 percent rise and broke a string of upbeat economic news, briefly knocking the Australian dollar lower.
It also contrasted markedly with a survey of consumers for March that showed confidence remained at very high levels even after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week lifted its cash rate for the fourth time in five meetings.
job advertisements
Australia Job Ads Surge to Year-High in February
Published: Tuesday, 9 Mar 2010 | 10:23 PM ET
Australian job advertisements in newspapers and on the Internet surged in February to their highest level in a year, suggesting that softness in January was merely a blip and further rapid employment growth lay ahead.
A survey by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group released on Tuesday showed total job advertisements jumped a seasonally adjusted 19.1 percent in February. That more than recovered January's 8.1 percent drop and was the biggest increase in at least two years.
Job ads were just 2.3 percent lower than the same month last year, compared to standing 26 percent lower in January.
"This month's growth suggests January's decline was probably just a seasonal anomaly," said Warren Hogan, acting chief economist at ANZ. "Forward indicators appear positive for more employment growth through the first half of 2010."
A massive 194,600 jobs were generated between October and January while the unemployment rate surprised everyone by dropping half a percentage point to 5.3 percent.
* Australia GDP Picks Up Pace in Q4
* Australia Lifts Cash Rate to 4%
* Australia Business Investment Jumps
* Private Equity Chill in Australia?
That fall in the jobless rate was a major reason the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) felt confident enough to lift interest rates four times since October
interestingly job numbers collected in arrears were flat but job ads- collected in the most current month surged.I'm tipping the next time job numbers come out new jobs will be big.
hence the AUD will rise.
i bought this moring 5 contrcts@ 91.32
Australia Jobs Flat in February after Strong Run
Australian employment barely rose in February as hiring took a breather after a very strong run, though the jobless rate remained low at 5.3 percent and full-time employment showed healthy growth.
The Australian dollar slipped and bill futures edged up as the market trimmed the chance of a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next policy meeting on April 6.
Data showed 400 jobs being added in February, compared to Reuters forecasts for a rise of 15,000.
"The numbers were slightly softer than expected but the data was fairly mixed. All told, it's not the sort of numbers that will change where things will go from here with rates. I see 4.25 percent by the end of the year," said Stephen Roberts, economist with Nomura.
housing numbers
Australian home loans fell the most in nearly eight years in January, hit by the scaling back of government grants to buyers and higher mortgage rates, suggesting past increases in interest rates were starting to bite.
The 7.9 percent drop in mortgage commitments in January came as a complete surprise to analysts who had forecast a 2.0 percent rise and broke a string of upbeat economic news, briefly knocking the Australian dollar lower.
It also contrasted markedly with a survey of consumers for March that showed confidence remained at very high levels even after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week lifted its cash rate for the fourth time in five meetings.
job advertisements
Australia Job Ads Surge to Year-High in February
Published: Tuesday, 9 Mar 2010 | 10:23 PM ET
Australian job advertisements in newspapers and on the Internet surged in February to their highest level in a year, suggesting that softness in January was merely a blip and further rapid employment growth lay ahead.
A survey by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group released on Tuesday showed total job advertisements jumped a seasonally adjusted 19.1 percent in February. That more than recovered January's 8.1 percent drop and was the biggest increase in at least two years.
Job ads were just 2.3 percent lower than the same month last year, compared to standing 26 percent lower in January.
"This month's growth suggests January's decline was probably just a seasonal anomaly," said Warren Hogan, acting chief economist at ANZ. "Forward indicators appear positive for more employment growth through the first half of 2010."
A massive 194,600 jobs were generated between October and January while the unemployment rate surprised everyone by dropping half a percentage point to 5.3 percent.
* Australia GDP Picks Up Pace in Q4
* Australia Lifts Cash Rate to 4%
* Australia Business Investment Jumps
* Private Equity Chill in Australia?
That fall in the jobless rate was a major reason the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) felt confident enough to lift interest rates four times since October
interestingly job numbers collected in arrears were flat but job ads- collected in the most current month surged.I'm tipping the next time job numbers come out new jobs will be big.
hence the AUD will rise.
i bought this moring 5 contrcts@ 91.32
cashed in tonight for a gain of 30 pips x 5 contracts= 150 pips= 1650 aud.I just could'nt pass up 1600$ in 12 hours.
"Might take 3 years but this could be one for the investors."
But if your in profit after 12 hours best to cash out then? Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking you, take your money when you can, just not sure that your sure what your strategy really is.
Personally I would be worried that part of the strength of the AUD is due to it being a recipient of the carry trade and when that unwinds it could be violent.
But if your in profit after 12 hours best to cash out then? Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking you, take your money when you can, just not sure that your sure what your strategy really is.
Personally I would be worried that part of the strength of the AUD is due to it being a recipient of the carry trade and when that unwinds it could be violent.
19 march 92.22
great range of 70/100 pips a day.
great for traders and investors.
great range of 70/100 pips a day.
great for traders and investors.
nice trade available today, bought 92.05 this morning, currently 92.11 will exit above 92.21. 5 contracts .
target just hit.sold 92.22 up 85 pips.About 900$ aud. All in a few hours work.No brainer.
How is this investing? Pure gambling imo. WD though if genuine.
However, we've just closed below the 1hr 50sma with the daily pivot just below. IF I had to 'invest' this Mr Ben, a good place to go long would be the support of the 1hr 200 sma @ 0.9163.
IF it closes below there then your long trade may be game off for a little while.
However, we've just closed below the 1hr 50sma with the daily pivot just below. IF I had to 'invest' this Mr Ben, a good place to go long would be the support of the 1hr 200 sma @ 0.9163.
IF it closes below there then your long trade may be game off for a little while.
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