Tradefair & Financials
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when do you think rates will start going up?
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Replies: 54
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the banks must be chomping at the bit to put them up, however it will be a good while yet, and sign of interest rate rises will plunge the housing market into further gloom and that really wont win many votes
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post election.
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Not till 2011
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In November it was reported that the average of mortgage customers was paying 0.5% more than a year ago in the UK.
talk of the US putting base rate up by 0.5% in new year, and personally think the UK will see a series of rises after May regardless of a pattern of following any global rises beforehand. Hod on to your hats. |
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Jim
There is absolutely no talk of the US putting up rates any time soon! Bernanke has made it absolutely clear that rates will not increase for the "forseeable future"! Rtaes willnot rise in the UK until 2011. Already we have seen Europe come out of recession only for weaker signals to start coming out. Weaker output and 1 million extra jobs lost has not helped. The UK is treading a tightrope, and the ONLY silver lining is that House prices have not fallen further, ensuring banks and building societies are under less pressure than they would otherwise have been. Inflation is inevitably going to increase slightly in next 3 or 4 months before we see it falling once more. Low interest rates are here for teh forseeable future |
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Oh and Jim
Mortgages mmay well be 1% more expensive than a year ago, but please remember , they are probably 1-1.5% cheaper than 6 months ago!! Please do not get too carried away with statistics like that. Mortgage rates are falling rapidly at present , as lenders fight for teh business. RBS failed to met its lending target last year , and is being very aggressive in the market place, particularly at 90% where they have a 2 year tracker at 4.79%. N Rock are coming back into the market next year and Nationwide, Abbey and Woolwich are cuttung rates and fees regularly |
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At least there is no sign of inflation rising.
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imo i believe interest rates wont be above 2.5% come xmas 2011. they may climb slightly post election, but i mean slightly, then 2011 they will climb
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yep
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As if central banks can set interest rates!
Perfect storm on the bow - a gilt inventory that can't be sold + inflation creeping back into the numbers. Batten down the hatches! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1564924/Zimbabwe-interest-rates-up-to-800pc.html |
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chisel 15 Dec 09:46 Jim There is absolutely no talk of the US putting up rates any time soon! Bernanke has made it absolutely clear that rates will not increase for the "forseeable future"! Jim, you still think rates are going up in the STates any time soon after yesterdays Fed meeting. Absolutely no chance! |
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Not soon enough. In fact interest rates have been far too low for years and we are killing our currency as is everyone else. Paper money RIP.
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when they do (& probably very quickly) housing market will suffer BIG TIME, inevitable really as still nowhere near fair value
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You know what.
I think chisel maybe correct regarding the economy,inflation and house prices. Through out the year most of you guys have been predicting Armageddon- inflation to rise to painful levels. house prices to crash. No one wanting to buy Government debt etc. etc. I used to believe this would happen. But you know what I think in a years time. We'll all be no worse off. Ok we'll be paying a few pennies more in tax. But every budget gives us that scenario. I've come round to thinking "it's a lot of chatter, a lot of fuss over nothing. It will not occur. FACT YOU CAN BUMP THIS THEAD UP ON 30th December 2010 and realise I'm correct. :) Happy New Year to all you doomongers waiting for a double dip/crash. |
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when the lovable mr lamont stood on the steps of downing street interest rates went to 22,5 % for 6 hours and we are still here,i no most on here think they invented the world yesterday,but even those who are 50 have seen it all before
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It will happen Bobby, government are just delaying the inevitable at the moment.
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Bobby is chisels other alias.
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:^0 nah I'm not chisel's alias. As I said I believe taxes will rise by a penny or two. Vat might go to 20%. But spending on plastic in the shops and house prices will continue to rise.
Btw apart from chomping your finger nails and wetting your knickers what are you doing to hedge against this so called Financial tsunami? |
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Ive done plenty thankyou. Ive reduced my families sterling cash holdings by 75% since last spring and have further plans in hand to deal with the rest at short notice.
What have you done apart from listen to Chisels rants and ignore the facts? |
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Ok.
Well since about 1995 I've been mortgage free. made a few bob shorting Bradford and Bingley from £2.10 downwards when people were talking of it being taken over when the shareprice stood at £2 :^0 Made even more shorting Northern Rock. But gave some of it back shorting the£ :( But currently unsure of what to do now. The FTSE 100 obviously does not reflect UK P.L.C as most companies in the FTSE do not generate their income from the UK. As to what companies will fold (inside the FTSE 100 or 250) I'm unsure. Some are bound to if this financial disaster arrives. But imo the FTSE 100 will not melt to 3000 or whatever the doomongers are predicting. The action will be in currencies. But which one and when?? That's the $64,000 question...... |
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Bobby
LOL, . It is a cardinal sin to agree with anything that i write! Funny thing is I have been right about how things were going for some time. I said that the lack of supply would ensure prices stayed stable , and they did. I also said that until interest rates rise, there will be litte pressure on house prices falling in value . Well, for the time being interest rates aregoing to s tay low. Banks are replenishing their balan ce sheets, and victories in bankl charge case ensures they keep even more cash. They will not be paying dividends for some time, and unemployment is not as bad as first predicted. House prices rely solely on the availability of mortgage finance, and mortgage finance is becoming more widely available and at higher loan to values. Is this enough to ensure that the number of new mortgage meets demand during 2010. For tnow I would say yes! So HAppy New year, hope we all have a good one! |
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You also said (housing thread 08)
chisel 08 Nov 17:17 deflation is a cast oiron certainty in the next three or 4 months |
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chisel always claims victory as if its all over. Just because House prices in some areas have risen for a few months and unemployment is rising slower than expected doent mean much. Both will be hit badly when the Public Sector faces reality later in 2010.
He just doesnt see that Brown has thrown everything he can to delay the real recession until after the GE by which time we will be in 10X the mess we would have been had we a Govt that wasnt completely irresponsible. |
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And now we get this
chisel 17 Dec 10:59 Larry All I said is that inflation would fall well below the 2% target. |
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Potlis
at what level did inflation hit a low ? |
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at what level did inflation hit a low ?
Why dont you look it up? you might discover that CPI never went negative, in fact prices have risen every month since your prediction in Nov 08. But it won't stop you continuing to claim "prices are falling" |
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chisel 08 Nov 17:17
deflation is a cast oiron certainty in the next three or 4 months Is that you, or not? |
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nation full of chisels + tabloid chancellor = bankrupt country
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Just been offered a 3 year fixed at 4.49 with 200 transfer - currently on SVR of 4.24. By the end of the 3 year fixed would own around 35-40 of the house. I'm thinking snap up the offer but grateful for another view.
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Just been offered a 3 year fixed at 4.49 with 200 transfer - currently on SVR of 4.24. By the end of the 3 year fixed would own around 35-40 of the house. I'm thinking snap up the offer but grateful for another view.
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Is that with Abbey?
Cant really knock the deal can you? What sort of sum do you owe. If you have a large mortgage it may be worth trying elswher. If not that is about as good as it gets! Best rates elsewhere are about the same but with biggerfees. The thing is with your SVR the only way is up. Trackers start at about 2.69-2.79% at 70% or 2.94% at 75% , so if you think rates will not increase the Tracker could be a better option. You can have legal fees paid and free valuation, but there is a £1000 fee. Personally I prefer a lifetme tracker with Woolwich than a Fixed rate . |
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lifetime tracker will be awesome when rates are 8%
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It is with the Abbey - we are at about 25% LTV at the moment. Although I like a bet in most forms of life I've always gone towards a fixed rate mortgage wise so I think I'll go with the offer- thanks for the reply.
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Gooseman
You have not taken note of a word I wrote. Although a lifetime tarcker you are only tied in for 2 years. This enables you to refinance without penalty any time after that. For your information, Abbey SVR is currently 4.24% which ois 3.74% above Bank rate with many other lenders SVR even higher!! Have a little think. I know you have no mortgage and rent , but you should not comment on things you know nothing about. 2 years is just 24 months, and if you choose a two year fixed rate, in 24 months you will come off the dealand go onto the lenders variable rate. The need to remortgage will be greater and incur fees that choosing a Lifetime tarcker would not incur.. Plus if rates are still ow, Which I believe they will be then a customer may choos to continue paying the mortgage on the Tracker for teh forseeable future |
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You have not taken note of a word I wrote
bang on.... |
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rates imo will be above 7% WITHIN 12 MONTHS ,could easily go into double figs ,pound might hit 1.4 euro before falling ,thats if the euro still exists ,and thats a very big if.
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Interest rates will go thru the roof now. Inflation will keep rising. The ONE EYED Scottish Monster can NO longer lie. Oh wait a minute he won't be in office come June
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i think the rate rises will come within a couple of months - and they could go as high as double figs easily i agree. ultimately i expect the euro to be hammered as well as the pound regardless of rate rises, and us to give up our currency and join the euro for the "collective strength of europe" (blah blah). the euro will teeter on the edge i agree, but i do not believe it is going anywhere. i wish i could say the same about the pound.
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Any rate increase will stop people spending It will be like turning off the taps!! Yiou really think tghe BOE will jeopardise a recovery while unemployemnt is rising. ? The BOE is aware that iinflation will spike , and expect it to settle down later in the year. Wages are down, so revenue fror teh governemnt is down , ensuring that the deficit will increase. The government needs revenue , and low interest rates is the only way tehy are going to get it..
Second. The BANKS. a substantial rise in Interest rates will bring panic, more properties to teh market and another house price collapse. teh banks will lose more money and risk teh stability of teh economy now and in the future. |