I would say it's highly unlikely that either RBS or Lloyds would pay a dividend for some years. The strings attached to the APS are punitive.
...and I ask the question again. What does "perpetual and irredeemable" actually mean in the context of the B shares being issued to UKFI as the impact will have a big bearing on the way these banks will be run over the next 10 years.
I would say it's highly unlikely that either RBS or Lloyds would pay a dividend for some years. The strings attached to the APS are punitive....and I ask the question again. What does "perpetual and irredeemable" actually mean in the context of the B
''Perpetual and irredeemable'' I would take to mean that the B shares cannot be cancelled by RBS buying them back at the conversion price. Therefore ALL B shares issued will at some time become Ords which UKFI will place with Sovereign Wealth Funds/Institutions and possibly a retail offer to P.I.'s. RBS could of course buy back Ords in the market but in my experience share buybacks are a complete waste of money(look at LGEN for example..1BN wasted in a pointless buyback and now they've cut the dividend again...to conserve capital lol). To my mind everything hinges on the final details of the APS and how many B shares are issued.From memory the fee is 6BN plus 13 BN extra capital plus an option on another 6 BN capital, all to be paid for with B shares. I hope that with the situation gradually inproving not all of this capital will be required......we'll know a bit more on Friday.
The LUFCwaffe,''Perpetual and irredeemable'' I would take to mean that the B shares cannot be cancelled by RBS buying them back at the conversion price.Therefore ALL B shares issued will at some time become Ords which UKFI will place with Sovereign W
According to the UKFI Annual Report RBS B shares convert to ordinary shares automatically if the share price reaches 65p or above for 20 out of 30 consecutive trading days.
According to the UKFI Annual Report RBS B shares convert to ordinary shares automatically if the share price reaches 65p or above for 20 out of 30 consecutive trading days.Page 25http://www.ukfi.gov.uk/releases/UKFI%20Annual%20Report%202008-2009.pdf
Yes you're correct there but UKFI cannot convert all their B shares if doing so would leave them owning more than 75% of the bank.
Most likely scenario is that they will convert B shares when the trigger point is reached then dispose of some and proceed to convert more and so on.
The strong performance of the investment banking unit in H1 will hopefully reduce the amount of new capital forced on the bank by the Govt.This cannot have been factored into the figures mooted when the APS was first devised.
Maybe fewer B shares will be issued than originally envisaged...although the Govt is getting such a good deal that they may force unnecessary capital on them anyway since RBS is in no position to argue.
Yes you're correct there but UKFI cannot convert all their B shares if doing so would leave them owning more than 75% of the bank.Most likely scenario is that they will convert B shares when the trigger point is reached then dispose of some and proce
It is the complete lack of clarity on the APS which is of concern.
Reading between the lines of the what has been dispatched for our edification, it would (as you point out) seem that there could be an intent (by UKFI) to trade out of RBS shares at opportune times which will free up the ability to replace with converted B shares.
...but as neither RBS (Lloyds) or UKFI have had the decency to state the intended workings of this scheme we can only make guesses.
If of course the details of the APS have yet to be confirmed then yes there are certainly grounds for optimism. The details available to date look punitive, and are based on pretty much a doomsday scenario.....todays interim results from Lloyds sound encouraging.
Will Lloyds reach the £25bn of writedowns that are required to trigger the APS?
Why buy an insure with an excess of £25bn if you can't invoke the insurance?
It is the complete lack of clarity on the APS which is of concern.Reading between the lines of the what has been dispatched for our edification, it would (as you point out) seem that there could be an intent (by UKFI) to trade out of RBS shares at op
Apologies to LLoyds......from their Interim Statement
"Government Asset Protection Scheme
The Group is working with HM Treasury to finalise the detailed terms and conditions and operational mechanics of the Group's intended participation in the Government's Asset Protection Scheme. The operation of the scheme and the impact on our business (and the consequential impact on our lending and the wider economy) is complex. The Group expects to conclude these discussions and agree terms and conditions which are in the interests of shareholders."
Hopefully they (and RBS) are in a stronger position now than when the details of the APS were first published.
A heavily diluted APS will potentially be a massive boost to the share prices of both RBS and Lloyds over the coming years.
Apologies to LLoyds......from their Interim Statement"Government Asset Protection SchemeThe Group is working with HM Treasury to finalise the detailed terms and conditions and operational mechanics ofthe Group's intended participation in the Governme
That's the first encouraging piece of news concerning the APS I've read to date.
Fingers crossed for a more favourable outcome than feared.
''In the interests of shareholders''.That's the first encouraging piece of news concerning the APS I've read to date.Fingers crossed for a more favourable outcome than feared.
Good to be on the rght side of things right!! Some on here are nbeing made to eat their own words. RBS up 2.5 pence today. as Ibought a load of these at just over 12 pence , every penny is Happy Days. Sure I bought some at much higher prices, that really does not matter any more!!! Happy days
SteptoesGood to be on the rght side of things right!! Some on here are nbeing made to eat their own words. RBS up 2.5 pence today. as Ibought a load of these at just over 12 pence , every penny is Happy Days. Sure I bought some at much higher prices,
Haven't digested the figures yet myself, but at first glance the negative statements look a concern. If the write downs have yet to peak and a recovery further off than previously anticipated by the markets, then the prospects for the business remain cloudy.
Hesters comments regards political interference don't bode well either, even though he's spot on in what he's saying.
RBS don't seem to have the flexibilty going forward that is now available to Lloyds, for whom they may even be able to escape the clutches of the APS, whereas RBS are being sucked into it
Haven't digested the figures yet myself, but at first glance the negative statements look a concern. If the write downs have yet to peak and a recovery further off than previously anticipated by the markets, then the prospects for the business remain
unless we see some inflation ,house prices are still way too high,rbs might have the edge on lloyds inthis respect,but i would be a little more cautious over 50/100 inboth shares.
unless we see some inflation ,house prices are still way too high,rbs might have the edge on lloyds inthis respect,but i would be a little more cautious over 50/100 inboth shares.
As previously stated it is in RBS interest to be cautious and more aggressive in writedowns. Obviously RBS and Lloyds loan book will be different but they can't both be right-
' results will be poor over the next two years, with no substantial improvement before 2011... still too soon to say whether the market had seen the high-tide mark for impairments. It's not impossible that we should be more optimistic now, but I am not going to call the turn today -- we need more evidence... Even if the technical peak is either near or has passed, it will be some years before impairments subside. One needs to be cautious at overinterpreting short-term indicators.'
RBS is too cautious or Lloyds are too optimistic with their view that loan impairments have peaked. Political nuances are very much in the picture but I think Lloyds are being overly optimistic.
As previously stated it is in RBS interest to be cautious and more aggressive in writedowns. Obviously RBS and Lloyds loan book will be different but they can't both be right- ' results will be poor over the next two years, with no substantial improv
RBS is too cautious or Lloyds are too optimistic with their view that loan impairments have peaked. Political nuances are very much in the picture but I think Lloyds are being overly optimistic.
Agree with this....reasons why??? Lloyds top dogs are much the same, and Daniels has to beef it up to try and make the HBOS deal look attractive, if not surely he would be history. RBS on the other hand have a new team. They need to play it down, and when it does start to improve take the credit, and of course the bonus's.
RBS is too cautious or Lloyds are too optimistic with their view that loan impairments have peaked. Political nuances are very much in the picture but I think Lloyds are being overly optimistic.Agree with this....reasons why???Lloyds top dogs are muc
RBS biggest corporate loss in UK history now a small profit.
Not a bad turn around if u ask me.....another year and these shares will have at least doubled.
RBS biggest corporate loss in UK history now a small profit.Not a bad turn around if u ask me.....another year and these shares will have at least doubled.
Trying to put a valuation on a bank that is all but nationalised is 100% guess work, because ultimately the share price will depend on what the bloke in no. 10 decides.
If he decides to pay 95 pence on the pound for all the sh1t that they have on their books then the share price could go to the moon. If he decides to let them suffer the consequences of the coming tsunami of defaults then the price will go all the way to zero.
There are far better ways to invest your money then trying to second guess what a politician is going to do.
OK RTB?
Trying to put a valuation on a bank that is all but nationalised is 100% guess work, because ultimately the share price will depend on what the bloke in no. 10 decides.If he decides to pay 95 pence on the pound for all the sh1t that they have on thei
Hester at RBS is talking it down so that when he gets his £9.6m bonus people are supposed to think he did a marvellous job, instead of savers just being robbed via QE.
Hester at RBS is talking it down so that when he gets his £9.6m bonus people are supposed to think he did a marvellous job, instead of savers just being robbed via QE.
But still think that there are reasons for Lloyds to be upbeat and RBS downbeat.
Although with talk of yet another rights issue at Lloyds it may be a while before £1 is reached again.
OK owls, get your point!But still think that there are reasons for Lloyds to be upbeat and RBS downbeat. Although with talk of yet another rights issue at Lloyds it may be a while before £1 is reached again.
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to serious p1ss off the small shareholders.
The big institutions will be happy (and can afford) to subscribe, but the small man on the street may struggle.
RBS non-core business is losing money hand over fist (£9.6bn for the last 6 months) is expected to continue to do so, and may not yet have peaked. Their participation in the APS looks a done deal.
Lloyds on the other hand believe that the rate of losses should now be in decline, and they expect a significant reduction in impairments from now on. They also appear to have booked a lower profit on buying their debt than RBS did (£745m against RBS' £3.8m....from what I note in the Interims)...these benefits will not be inevidence so much next time, if at all.
Lloyds also believe they will be able to book a £+2bn readjustment over the next 6 months (was £+3.7bn for the first 6) which will be beneficial, + the ongoing cost savings.
Lloyds state that they will make a full year loss, but at what rate is that loss being reduced? Why pay £15bn+ for the APS, if you have to absorb the first £25bn yourself (c.£10.4bn attributable from the latest results, and believed to reduce significantly over the next 6 months).
For Lloyds the current APS arrangement no longer looks approriate, but at what cost and to whom (the small shareholder?). The amount raised by a rights issue needs to be assessed realistically. How much money genuinely needs to be put into the pot to keep the FSA happy regards capital ratio (which currently looks better than RBS from what I can glean)
It will be a while before RBS shake off the non-core loss making side....and return to a profitable bank. The latest accounts for the core business show a profit before tax of £6.3bn for 6 months (though this may include the debt buy back profit of £3.8bn).
Somewhere behind the figures from these banks lies profitability for the future.....your guess is now to work out how much and whether your holding is going to be diluted out of sight
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to serious p1ss off the small
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to serious p1ss off the small shareholders.
The big institutions will be happy (and can afford) to subscribe, but the small man on the street may struggle.
RBS non-core business is losing money hand over fist (£9.6bn for the last 6 months) is expected to continue to do so, and may not yet have peaked. Their participation in the APS looks a done deal.
Lloyds on the other hand believe that the rate of losses should now be in decline, and they expect a significant reduction in impairments from now on. They also appear to have booked a lower profit on buying their debt than RBS did (£745m against RBS' £3.8m....from what I note in the Interims)...these benefits will not be inevidence so much next time, if at all.
Lloyds also believe they will be able to book a £+2bn readjustment over the next 6 months (was £+3.7bn for the first 6) which will be beneficial, + the ongoing cost savings.
Lloyds state that they will make a full year loss, but at what rate is that loss being reduced? Why pay £15bn+ for the APS, if you have to absorb the first £25bn yourself (c.£10.4bn attributable from the latest results, and believed to reduce significantly over the next 6 months).
For Lloyds the current APS arrangement no longer looks approriate, but at what cost and to whom (the small shareholder?). The amount raised by a rights issue needs to be assessed realistically. How much money genuinely needs to be put into the pot to keep the FSA happy regards capital ratio (which currently looks better than RBS from what I can glean)
It will be a while before RBS shake off the non-core loss making side....and return to a profitable bank. The latest accounts for the core business show a profit before tax of £6.3bn for 6 months (though this may include the debt buy back profit of £3.8bn).
Somewhere behind the figures from these banks lies profitability for the future.....your guess is now to work out how much and whether your holding is going to be diluted out of sight
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to serious p1ss off the small
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to seriously upset the small shareholders.
The big institutions will be happy (and can afford) to subscribe, but the small man on the street may struggle.
RBS non-core business is losing money hand over fist (£9.6bn for the last 6 months) is expected to continue to do so, and may not yet have peaked. Their participation in the APS looks a done deal.
Lloyds on the other hand believe that the rate of losses should now be in decline, and they expect a significant reduction in impairments from now on. They also appear to have booked a lower profit on buying their debt than RBS did (£745m against RBS' £3.8m....from what I note in the Interims)...these benefits will not be inevidence so much next time, if at all.
Lloyds also believe they will be able to book a £+2bn readjustment over the next 6 months (was £+3.7bn for the first 6) which will be beneficial, + the ongoing cost savings.
Lloyds state that they will make a full year loss, but at what rate is that loss being reduced? Why pay £15bn+ for the APS, if you have to absorb the first £25bn yourself (c.£10.4bn attributable from the latest results, and believed to reduce significantly over the next 6 months).
For Lloyds the current APS arrangement no longer looks approriate, but at what cost and to whom (the small shareholder?). The amount raised by a rights issue needs to be assessed realistically. How much money genuinely needs to be put into the pot to keep the FSA happy regards capital ratio (which currently looks better than RBS from what I can glean)
It will be a while before RBS shake off the non-core loss making side....and return to a profitable bank. The latest accounts for the core business show a profit before tax of £6.3bn for 6 months (though this may include the debt buy back profit of £3.8bn).
Somewhere behind the figures from these banks lies profitability for the future.....your guess is now to work out how much and whether your holding is going to be diluted out of sight
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to seriously upset the small s
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to seriously upset the small shareholders.
The big institutions will be happy (and can afford) to subscribe, but the small man on the street may struggle.
The problem that Lloyds have is that there's initial agreement is that the Gov will subscribe to Lloyds B shares at a price of 115p per share......as they are currently trading at 100p per share it will be difficult not to seriously upset the small s
Cant help but wonder the motives of politicians and Mr Hester in the current share price yo yo. Do they not want the share price to peak too soon so that bonuses cause outrage and good news is discounted by the next election ?
Cant help but wonder the motives of politicians and Mr Hester in the current share price yo yo. Do they not want the share price to peak too soon so that bonuses cause outrage and good news is discounted by the next election ?
I am sure Mr Hester is being made fully aware of what is needed by the treasury mandarins who have been handpicked by guess who ? My guess is a big pick up by party conference time.
I am sure Mr Hester is being made fully aware of what is needed by the treasury mandarins who have been handpicked by guess who ? My guess is a big pick up by party conference time.
made 27% profit in less than a month but im not sure if i should get out now or wait a few years to see if i can double/treble my investment. im in no need of cash in short term so im thinking leave it
made 27% profit in less than a month but im not sure if i should get out now or wait a few years to see if i can double/treble my investment. im in no need of cash in short term so im thinking leave it
Wow...you have shocked me. I thought you were in for the long term?
I have been in since 36p and have on many occasions considered selling, especially with the doom mongers predicting the end is nigh. I haven't sold and am keeping for at least 5 years.
I may well regret it, but i am confident that in 5 years I will have made the right decision.
Kinda gutted you sold ...
STEPTOES YARDWow...you have shocked me. I thought you were in for the long term? I have been in since 36p and have on many occasions considered selling, especially with the doom mongers predicting the end is nigh. I haven't sold and am keeping for at
I too am surprised. I honestly believe that in 5-10 years time teh shares will have rocketed, leavinga massive profit!
Fair play to you though, if your plan was for a quick profit you have done well! Hope your are not the tyope to come on here when the shares fall in value saying we should have all sold! LOL I know you wouldnt do that!.....would you ?
SteptoesI too am surprised. I honestly believe that in 5-10 years time teh shares will have rocketed, leavinga massive profit!Fair play to you though, if your plan was for a quick profit you have done well! Hope your are not the tyope to come on here
Tbh needed some of the funds out and just decided why im at it to take them all out. Have been slightly concerned with 2 recent retraces. Will keep my eye on these shares still.
Good luck to all those still involved. Agree that long term still good investment
Tbh needed some of the funds out and just decided why im at it to take them all out. Have been slightly concerned with 2 recent retraces. Will keep my eye on these shares still. Good luck to all those still involved. Agree that long term still good i
Got to be the first to congratulate you STEPTOES YARD :) Well done!
On this occasion when I posted I got it wrong :(
However, I still maintain this has been artificially pumped up and is/was rising on thin air. In other words a good time to get out. imo.
But still WD.
STEPTOES YARD 01 Sep 23:14 Sold most of my shares today for 56.4p Happy with my profit Got to be the first to congratulate you STEPTOES YARD :)Well done!On this occasion when I posted I got it wrong :(However, I still maintain this has been ar
1. General sentiment that the markets have risen too much too quickly
2. Uncertainty about more rights issues and therfore more dilution
3. Doubts about the extent of the APS
1. General sentiment that the markets have risen too much too quickly2. Uncertainty about more rights issues and therfore more dilution3. Doubts about the extent of the APS
Smileys points encompass the key issues for both RBS and Lloyds. And it is points 2 and 3 that force the markets to think about point 1.
Without 2 and 3 the share price wouldnt have been anchored around the 50 to 55p mark. But the APS remains, and is a huge millstone on the share price
Smileys points encompass the key issues for both RBS and Lloyds. And it is points 2 and 3 that force the markets to think about point 1.Without 2 and 3 the share price wouldnt have been anchored around the 50 to 55p mark. But the APS remains, and is
Well done Steptoes. Your plan was a short term punt and it paid of. I am in for the long haul, and am not concerned about a drop in share price over two weeks.
RBS /NAt West are lending more mortgage money than anyother bank at excellent rates. They are a money making machine at present. Assett prices/stock markets/houseprices have not dropped liek predicted, and this is only goog for strengthening banks position
Well done Steptoes. Your plan was a short term punt and it paid of. I am in for the long haul, and am not concerned about a drop in share price over two weeks.RBS /NAt West are lending more mortgage money than anyother bank at excellent rates. They a
Interesting. If the government 2 years ago were to announce that they were going to buy the biggest Bank in the country then questions would have been asked. Now like you say the government could soon own them. they will make shed loads of cash in the coming years and all masked as a bailout rather than a takeover. stinks for me. I personally think lloyds may avoid a takeover but the more I see what the govenment are doing the more I think that RBS could well end up in the hands of the taxpayer, which will be good for them but not for those that currently hold shares. Another point is that if they now own shares in 3 major banks, would their not be a case to say that this should be looked in to, im sure this cant be right.
The_LUFCwaffeInteresting. If the government 2 years ago were to announce that they were going to buy the biggest Bank in the country then questions would have been asked. Now like you say the government could soon own them. they will make shed loads
I wish I had sold too rather than see my paper profits dwindle.
That said I am still long term and am still very confident that i will be welll rewarded in the long run.
RBS was always going into the APS. I wish I had sold too rather than see my paper profits dwindle.That said I am still long term and am still very confident that i will be welll rewarded in the long run.
Steptoes done well, but I am in for the long haul. I think when banks start reporting again we will see share prices start to rise. Remember, for many there was massive profits in RBS having risen from 10 pence!
Steptoes done well, but I am in for the long haul. I think when banks start reporting again we will see share prices start to rise. Remember, for many there was massive profits in RBS having risen from 10 pence!
Similar to Fannie and freddie.. there are toughs and bounces at the moment due to manilulation, but these are solid gold for long term at current price
Similar to Fannie and freddie.. there are toughs and bounces at the moment due to manilulation, but these are solid gold for long term at current price
They have a "stand-alone strength" plan that looks like it will take them up to 2013/14 depending on how they are performing. IMO its one to hold off until they are free (or look to be coming out of if your timing is right) from APS as the b shares issue means that they share price will be held under 65p.
They have a "stand-alone strength" plan that looks like it will take them up to 2013/14 depending on how they are performing. IMO its one to hold off until they are free (or look to be coming out of if your timing is right) from APS as the b shares i
think they will end the year around where they are now, as a long term play they are a decent bet.
massive bonuses in place for top brass if they get to 80p so over the 2 year period I sense they will get back to nearer £1 a share.
think they will end the year around where they are now, as a long term play they are a decent bet.massive bonuses in place for top brass if they get to 80p so over the 2 year period I sense they will get back to nearer £1 a share.
yep!. It needs to, but lets face it...It is a long and windy road for RBS/Lloyds, but with no dividends being paid for the forseeable future the strength of these banks is increasing by the day... I like this, as all teh value is being added to the share price with nothing being stripped out
Northern Rock has now been split in two. The good bank and the bad bank. Expect some big news soon!
yep!. It needs to, but lets face it...It is a long and windy road for RBS/Lloyds, but with no dividends being paid for the forseeable future the strength of these banks is increasing by the day... I like this, as all teh value is being added to the s
i've never heard such a circular argument in my life. take a step back and think about what you've just written chisel.
the shares are awesome because they're not paying divs. magic.
i've never heard such a circular argument in my life. take a step back and think about what you've just written chisel. the shares are awesome because they're not paying divs. magic.
Hard to anaylse with company choice allowances for bad debts. I wonder does "stand-alone strength" mean following guidelines created by the doomed Basel III?
Hard to anaylse with company choice allowances for bad debts. I wonder does "stand-alone strength" mean following guidelines created by the doomed Basel III?