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how will it affect our markets? Any up to date intelligent posters around? ;)
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What is the connection? The market was hardly in freefall from what I could see?
Future still trading OK and slightly above the price it was when LSE stopped.
I realise all this but i've been told the technical glitch was just an excuse for the suspension the real reason being the Dubai situation. Can't see it myself but just posted in case anyone more informed had any information
similar in size to argentina default. markets are a little worried.
LSE issue isn't related to Dubai. 95% certain of that
us/uk to follow within 3 month imo.
this gold business is a big deal and changes things. the chinese are not happy that we've been shipping them tungsten, but we;'ve turned round and said we do have the real gold and we will get it to you. obv we won't, and china and rest of wolrd will be cutting the usa and uk off imminently.
re dubai - i said this would happen earlier this year, somewhere:)
this gold business is a big deal and changes things. the chinese are not happy that we've been shipping them tungsten, but we;'ve turned round and said we do have the real gold and we will get it to you. obv we won't, and china and rest of wolrd will be cutting the usa and uk off imminently.
re dubai - i said this would happen earlier this year, somewhere:)
the financial markets are closed in Dubai for a holiday today hence the announcement
Surely if the two were connected the Future would be diving, I realise the dip this morning was because of the Dubai situation but if the suspension were in any way connected it would have fallen further no?
I'd have thought so myself jabten so perhaps it is just a timely coincidence.
LSE shares are lower, on reports Dubai Borse may unload its LSE share stake.
The FTSE issue is a technical computer one, which has happened before.
The FTSE issue is a technical computer one, which has happened before.
Still
The Dubai situation has been discussed on her before. It is a property pyramid scam going horribly wrong. Investors are walking away from properties when instalments are due, because they can not get finance, or the value of the properties are lower than agreed sale price.
How exposed to Dubai are the banks in the UK? Dubai is a disaster waiting to happen...
I believe they have already been bailed out another UAE state in the past..
The Dubai situation has been discussed on her before. It is a property pyramid scam going horribly wrong. Investors are walking away from properties when instalments are due, because they can not get finance, or the value of the properties are lower than agreed sale price.
How exposed to Dubai are the banks in the UK? Dubai is a disaster waiting to happen...
I believe they have already been bailed out another UAE state in the past..
so it really was literally all built on sand, then?
quite likely imported sand, the best money can buy!
Yet another bubble that our supremely talented bankers are over-exposed to.
Chisel? Is that you?
What you just said makes sense.
Are you feeling ok?
What you just said makes sense.
Are you feeling ok?
Credit cards?
They are the cause of the next big banking collapse (or the collapse after the next... or the next...)
There is currently a huge amount of money outstanding on CCards that the banks will never see again.
They are the cause of the next big banking collapse (or the collapse after the next... or the next...)
There is currently a huge amount of money outstanding on CCards that the banks will never see again.
40 bn exposure is relatively small compared to the exposure on subprime, carloans, student loans and -of course- credit cards.
To revisit previous territory.
These clever bankers didn't see something else coming.
Last year was good for them, they will get decent bonuses and the money will leave the bank.
It isn't now there to plug this hole.
The money will have to be found from elsewhere, through higher borrowing costs or more capital raising, either privately or from governments.
That's why the bankers are clever and why bonuses to clever bankers are as toxic as the debt!
Why oh why is this being allowed to happen?!
These clever bankers didn't see something else coming.
Last year was good for them, they will get decent bonuses and the money will leave the bank.
It isn't now there to plug this hole.
The money will have to be found from elsewhere, through higher borrowing costs or more capital raising, either privately or from governments.
That's why the bankers are clever and why bonuses to clever bankers are as toxic as the debt!
Why oh why is this being allowed to happen?!
UBS is saying the exposure could be higher than reported so far.
"Dubai... may owe more than the $80 billion to $90 billion in liabilities assumed by investors, UBS AG analysts said in a note.
Perhaps Dubais debt includes sizeable off-balance sheet liabilities that imply a total debt burden well above the $80 billion to $90 billion markets have estimated so far,
"Dubai... may owe more than the $80 billion to $90 billion in liabilities assumed by investors, UBS AG analysts said in a note.
Perhaps Dubais debt includes sizeable off-balance sheet liabilities that imply a total debt burden well above the $80 billion to $90 billion markets have estimated so far,
The UAE dirham is pegged to the dollar at 3.6735 to 1. How does this potential default affect the currency?
Dubainumbers are peanuts - big numbers will come from elsewhere in UAE in next year or so IMO.
Soap
Th UAE has a soverign wealth fund with Assetts of 627 billion dollars, so UAE has teh resources to bail out Dubai again
Th UAE has a soverign wealth fund with Assetts of 627 billion dollars, so UAE has teh resources to bail out Dubai again
Isn't this another argument for tighter global egulatory procedures and fuller disclosure of all finance/banking type operations, onsheet and offsheet.
Here we have a major problem brewing and nobody, from us laymen to the serious professionals, has any idea really of how big the problem is or whom it affects ?
And we won't know until it's too late for us to protect ourselves, if required.
I bet GS knows exactly what is going on though.
Here we have a major problem brewing and nobody, from us laymen to the serious professionals, has any idea really of how big the problem is or whom it affects ?
And we won't know until it's too late for us to protect ourselves, if required.
I bet GS knows exactly what is going on though.
ITS OK
the banks have all assured Gordon Brown that they do not have a lot of expsoure to Dubai
we can sleep easy now
the banks have all assured Gordon Brown that they do not have a lot of expsoure to Dubai
we can sleep easy now
Ive a funny feeling the British taxpayer may well be footing some of this bill as well, we seem to pay for every fcucking thing else
Cos we're a rich developed nation, that's why.
Lucky us.
Lucky us.
Bail them out, Abu Dhabi, FFS. Get with the times! Pesky foreigners with your quaint, free-market ideals...
FINE AS FROG HAIR 27 Nov 21:35
Cos we're a rich developed nation, that's why.
Lucky us.
------
so youre moving to somalia?
Cos we're a rich developed nation, that's why.
Lucky us.
------
so youre moving to somalia?
Dubia debt move 'carefully planned'
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.15417e8f63a995484187728fd215d360.b71&show_article=1
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.15417e8f63a995484187728fd215d360.b71&show_article=1
Yes Abu Dhabi will bail them out but at a price.
They want the Emirates airline and maybe the ports(both good profit makers).
Dubai is in no position to dictate terms.
They'll have to sell off a lot of assets too...the QE2 and Turnberry golf course have been mentioned for starters.
Could well spell the end of Godolphin as a force in world racing too.
Would you bail out your reckless younger brother and then let him waste money in the bookies?.
They want the Emirates airline and maybe the ports(both good profit makers).
Dubai is in no position to dictate terms.
They'll have to sell off a lot of assets too...the QE2 and Turnberry golf course have been mentioned for starters.
Could well spell the end of Godolphin as a force in world racing too.
Would you bail out your reckless younger brother and then let him waste money in the bookies?.
I don't think it's the Sultan who's in financial trouble.
He'll come out of all this with his billionaire status well intact I would expect.
He'll come out of all this with his billionaire status well intact I would expect.
There seems to be a fair amount of misunderstanding about the UAE, and our relations to it re finance.
1) The terms UAE, Abu Dhabi and Dubai are not interchangable. Abu Dhabi and Dubai are two of the seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates.
2) The UAE is a very loose federation. It's only existed for 38 years. Although they share a currency, and some infrastructure, the seven emirates consider themselves to be different countries and have distinct and separate finances.
3) It is likely that Abu Dhabi, which is the vastly wealthy emirate that still has about 90 years worth of extractable oil, will bail Dubai out for the most part. They have not given guarentees about all debts. They will do this out of self-interest and will extract a high price from the Maktoum family, in terms not only of assets, but prestige and political power in the region. I suspect that the Nahyan family, who rule Abu Dhabi, might like to wrest Dubai's position as a financial centre from it.
4) Abu Dhabi did not bail out Sharjah when that emirate was in trouble. It had to turn to Saudi Arabia for financial assistance. It has paid a heavy price for their help though, as the quid pro quo of the funding was that Sharjah roll back the liberalization that it had conducted in the last decade or so, and revert to the less tolerant policies of Islamic conservatism. Such conditions would be a disaster for Dubai, as it is heavily dependent on its ex-pat professional class.
5) It is partly the FSA and Bank of England's fault that British banks are so exposed. In the light of the Lehman Brothers crash and bank bailouts, British regulators stipulated that banks should reduce their exposure to risk by holding more assets in (guess what) 'safer' sovereign wealth fund issued bonds and similar products. Hilariously, because all the banks had to increase their exposure to such instruments (and thus drove demand), the face value of these assets was artificially inflated into the bubble that has now burst. Nice one, regulators!! Way to go!
6) The call for tighter regulation would be tricky to pull off, as finances in Middle Eastern economies are notoriously opaque. I have friends who are lawyers in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and conducting due diligence is apparently a complete nightmare. In some cases it is even difficult to verify exactly which individuals you are dealing with. The Emiratis have an expectation that multi-million pound deals should be conducted with less background checks than we would expect to join our local library. There is a kind of 'my word is my bond' culture which works fine if everyone plays it straight, as used to happen (for the most part). There has been so much money swilling around though that nefarious types have become more brazen, and couldn't care less about the loss of face involved with being dishonest or not following through on undertakings.
7) There is no clear distinction of where the Maktoum family's wealth ends and Dubai's sovereign wealth begins. Not really a problem unless Dubai completely defaults on all of it's debts and the ruling family decide to take their assets and run, which seems extremely unlikely.
8) Dubai itself has little extractable oil left. Extraction (as opposed to refinement) make up about 3% of GDP.
1) The terms UAE, Abu Dhabi and Dubai are not interchangable. Abu Dhabi and Dubai are two of the seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates.
2) The UAE is a very loose federation. It's only existed for 38 years. Although they share a currency, and some infrastructure, the seven emirates consider themselves to be different countries and have distinct and separate finances.
3) It is likely that Abu Dhabi, which is the vastly wealthy emirate that still has about 90 years worth of extractable oil, will bail Dubai out for the most part. They have not given guarentees about all debts. They will do this out of self-interest and will extract a high price from the Maktoum family, in terms not only of assets, but prestige and political power in the region. I suspect that the Nahyan family, who rule Abu Dhabi, might like to wrest Dubai's position as a financial centre from it.
4) Abu Dhabi did not bail out Sharjah when that emirate was in trouble. It had to turn to Saudi Arabia for financial assistance. It has paid a heavy price for their help though, as the quid pro quo of the funding was that Sharjah roll back the liberalization that it had conducted in the last decade or so, and revert to the less tolerant policies of Islamic conservatism. Such conditions would be a disaster for Dubai, as it is heavily dependent on its ex-pat professional class.
5) It is partly the FSA and Bank of England's fault that British banks are so exposed. In the light of the Lehman Brothers crash and bank bailouts, British regulators stipulated that banks should reduce their exposure to risk by holding more assets in (guess what) 'safer' sovereign wealth fund issued bonds and similar products. Hilariously, because all the banks had to increase their exposure to such instruments (and thus drove demand), the face value of these assets was artificially inflated into the bubble that has now burst. Nice one, regulators!! Way to go!
6) The call for tighter regulation would be tricky to pull off, as finances in Middle Eastern economies are notoriously opaque. I have friends who are lawyers in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and conducting due diligence is apparently a complete nightmare. In some cases it is even difficult to verify exactly which individuals you are dealing with. The Emiratis have an expectation that multi-million pound deals should be conducted with less background checks than we would expect to join our local library. There is a kind of 'my word is my bond' culture which works fine if everyone plays it straight, as used to happen (for the most part). There has been so much money swilling around though that nefarious types have become more brazen, and couldn't care less about the loss of face involved with being dishonest or not following through on undertakings.
7) There is no clear distinction of where the Maktoum family's wealth ends and Dubai's sovereign wealth begins. Not really a problem unless Dubai completely defaults on all of it's debts and the ruling family decide to take their assets and run, which seems extremely unlikely.
8) Dubai itself has little extractable oil left. Extraction (as opposed to refinement) make up about 3% of GDP.
Here, have a glimpse at the real Dubai.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/the-dark-side-of-dubai-1664368.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/the-dark-side-of-dubai-1664368.html
So the problem shoud not in the final anaysis unduly hurt the external creditors or further exacerbate the global financial crisis?
Internal restructuring of ruling families' power bases may occur, but who cares about this, except the family members of course ?
The price of oil will not be influenced upward or downward, will it ?
Btw I'm asking these questions to be answered by those more knowlegeable than me.
Internal restructuring of ruling families' power bases may occur, but who cares about this, except the family members of course ?
The price of oil will not be influenced upward or downward, will it ?
Btw I'm asking these questions to be answered by those more knowlegeable than me.
I guess the most relevant issue regards what is going on in the UAE, is that this will effectively mirror what we should expect within the Eurozone of the EU in years to come. The IMF have been the backstop when things have gone pear shaped in the past for individual nations within todays EU. That is unlikely to be the case in the future.
If Abu Dhabi are now trying to exert influence over Dubai, then we should expect to see the EU to directly interfere with any country not playing ball. Freedom to raise your own taxes? Freedom to spend those taxes as you wish? Freedom to raise debt?
Todays soveriegn debt has become the EU's debt.
If Abu Dhabi are now trying to exert influence over Dubai, then we should expect to see the EU to directly interfere with any country not playing ball. Freedom to raise your own taxes? Freedom to spend those taxes as you wish? Freedom to raise debt?
Todays soveriegn debt has become the EU's debt.
FINE AS FROG HAIR 30 Nov 12:31
So the problem shoud not in the final anaysis unduly hurt the external creditors or further exacerbate the global financial crisis?
Difficult to know. Abu Dhabi has an overwhelming interest in preserving the reputation of the country and the region and so will probably ensure that most large institutional creditors see a large percentage of their cash returned. Smaller contractors could still lose out though. The whole situation will dent the global financial recovery, but should not be big enough to send us back into chaos.
Internal restructuring of ruling families' power bases may occur, but who cares about this, except the family members of course ?
Such an internal restructuring would affect anyone with dealings with either emirate, in that the long-term prospects of investments in Dubai (of whatever sort) will be devalued by the shifting power base. Some investors in Abu Dhabi might reap an unexpected reward (or an expected one if they were canny and saw this coming).
There are also serious potential ramifications for Britain's horse racing and breeding industry - which is an enormous employer. The Maktoum family are just the most conspicuous of Emiratis with extensive racing interests. Mohammed Jaber, Jaber Abdullah & Saeed Manana are three other Dubaians off the top of my head whose racing interests might be affected by the crisis.
The price of oil will not be influenced upward or downward, will it ?
Btw I'm asking these questions to be answered by those more knowlegeable than me.
That I'm afraid I don't know. My suspicion is that it will not be hugely affected. For the most part when it comes to oil prices short-term trends are related to supply, and long-term trends to demand (ignoring speculation). The news of the last week or two should have little or no impact on supply. It might have a small negative impact on long-term demand, as a result of what should be a fairly mild drag on worldwide growth.
So the problem shoud not in the final anaysis unduly hurt the external creditors or further exacerbate the global financial crisis?
Difficult to know. Abu Dhabi has an overwhelming interest in preserving the reputation of the country and the region and so will probably ensure that most large institutional creditors see a large percentage of their cash returned. Smaller contractors could still lose out though. The whole situation will dent the global financial recovery, but should not be big enough to send us back into chaos.
Internal restructuring of ruling families' power bases may occur, but who cares about this, except the family members of course ?
Such an internal restructuring would affect anyone with dealings with either emirate, in that the long-term prospects of investments in Dubai (of whatever sort) will be devalued by the shifting power base. Some investors in Abu Dhabi might reap an unexpected reward (or an expected one if they were canny and saw this coming).
There are also serious potential ramifications for Britain's horse racing and breeding industry - which is an enormous employer. The Maktoum family are just the most conspicuous of Emiratis with extensive racing interests. Mohammed Jaber, Jaber Abdullah & Saeed Manana are three other Dubaians off the top of my head whose racing interests might be affected by the crisis.
The price of oil will not be influenced upward or downward, will it ?
Btw I'm asking these questions to be answered by those more knowlegeable than me.
That I'm afraid I don't know. My suspicion is that it will not be hugely affected. For the most part when it comes to oil prices short-term trends are related to supply, and long-term trends to demand (ignoring speculation). The news of the last week or two should have little or no impact on supply. It might have a small negative impact on long-term demand, as a result of what should be a fairly mild drag on worldwide growth.
I think that's probably a fair post Lufcwaffe, barring the last sentence which is hyperbole (imo)
at 200bn dlrs, their gdp needs a 5% income tax increase - incidentally from zero pct - to resolve their problem with 5 yrs.
would be different if they had the tax rates as in the uk, wher we already scraped all the barrels, but overthere? sorry i dont buy this crises.
would be different if they had the tax rates as in the uk, wher we already scraped all the barrels, but overthere? sorry i dont buy this crises.
History maker
Fact is Dubais problem is a property problem. The thousands of investors that turned up in Dubai to buy property off of plan have had the rug pulled from beneath them.
If you think amateurs were responsible for the UK property debacle then times it by ten where Dubai is concerned. Problem with Dubai is that it is well to do middle class people that have been stung.
People were buying properties on the palm for £250k a few years back , and these properties were no where near finished and were being sold on for £500k profit. Peopel were gearing up to extreme levels. Flats being sold of plan for £150 k and being sold before an instament was due for £50k profit . Things changed, and the law changed. People could no longer sell before they had made several instaments, banks stopped lending, so those that wanted to sell before instaments were due were left holdingh the baby!! These investors have BEEN advised to simply not make the additional payments. Apparently legally they can just walk away. There are thousands of these people. What price the empty property/development now?
The property developers expecting billions in instalments are not recieving them, and they are doing nothing to chase the investors. Apparently, legally they can do nothing if the buyer lives abroad. Those that lived in Dubai have long since left, and they can not chase them either. That is why there are hundreds of cars left with keys in ignition at airport every week.
Fact is Dubais problem is a property problem. The thousands of investors that turned up in Dubai to buy property off of plan have had the rug pulled from beneath them.
If you think amateurs were responsible for the UK property debacle then times it by ten where Dubai is concerned. Problem with Dubai is that it is well to do middle class people that have been stung.
People were buying properties on the palm for £250k a few years back , and these properties were no where near finished and were being sold on for £500k profit. Peopel were gearing up to extreme levels. Flats being sold of plan for £150 k and being sold before an instament was due for £50k profit . Things changed, and the law changed. People could no longer sell before they had made several instaments, banks stopped lending, so those that wanted to sell before instaments were due were left holdingh the baby!! These investors have BEEN advised to simply not make the additional payments. Apparently legally they can just walk away. There are thousands of these people. What price the empty property/development now?
The property developers expecting billions in instalments are not recieving them, and they are doing nothing to chase the investors. Apparently, legally they can do nothing if the buyer lives abroad. Those that lived in Dubai have long since left, and they can not chase them either. That is why there are hundreds of cars left with keys in ignition at airport every week.
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