Mrben
Just who do you think is selling to you all these contracts you are buying and why ?
Just think about it for a minute.
There's always two sides to any trade.
Are they fools for apparently selling when you're buying ?
Goose
Don't even ask Mrben to consider the implications of what the Chinese might do.
If he could reason down this route, he might brown his panties right away.
Mrben
At least consider taking some of your future punts in the form of buying call options. Limit your downside at least at the sacrifice of a part of the upside.

oh botty thats great. send me ur address and we can share a pina colada soon.I may be over playing it, but not yet.theres a long way to go yet 92.85 at the time of writing, up 115 pips today.Thats about 22,700$ AUD to me for the day! Real money, real trade.
Botty, do you think theres a chance YOU are overplaying the "dark forces" ?If you live on multiple beach locations you must have mucho dinero? You could be buying an island if you were on the mighty aussie.The train has left the station grab a taxi , head it off anf jump on asap.

Dont stop reading YLB!! This thread could be an interesting one.! I am sure you wish Mr Ben good luck though!!

mr ben i read your post with interest.
to be honest i m not here to discuss wheter the position you have is the right one or not ( incidentally i think it s a good position ).
what i think it s important that you consider is - i think botty pointed it out already - that your knowledge is not superior to anyone else in the market. rates are going higher, but for example do you know what is expected in the next few months? the rates are now at 3.5%, but the december bank bill future is trading at 4.17% ( and the strip is going up till an incredible 6.13% for the june11 contract ). all these rates hikes are already priced in the price of the oz at 93cents. a slower than expected hiking cycle would make the oz vulnarable. especially considering how unlikely is the rba to hike in december - historically a very rare event -.
at the moment you re riding a wave, a massive wave and you r displaying a good bravery to ride it out. but plse make sure your bravery dont become**yness and try to be always disciplined and leave your stops in order to be left with a comfortable and acceptable loss shud the trade not work out.
as a matter of fact why dont you book some of your profits and use these winnings to play the position thru options so that you know whats your downside.
on top i wd suggest you to play aud vs other ccies too if you love the monetary policy of the rba. aud vs nzd is a safer play as the volatility of the cross is much lower. or aud v cad ( cad and nzd are pricing in a much slower hiking cycle ), or whateveer else.
in any case, let it be clear to yourself, you re not playing the strenght of the aud, but the weakeness of the usd.
and that can turn at anytime. without warning.

Mrben
We all want you to keep some if not all of your great profits to date.
Come on m8, be sensible and prudent.
You've already made enough to finance any number of great vacations.
Do you seriously think you can, or even want to earn enough to retire forever ?

Mrben
I wish you all the best.
You'll obviously be a hero or a zero.
Time will tell.
Btw I know the Aussie economy well, and what is happening now with the AUD is totally unrepresentative of the mood in the streets.
Everybody I know in Aussie is totally lacking in confidence of their currency and economy.
Australia is a country that depends on the success and support of others more important than it.
It is a sideshow and will be for a long time to come.
Great place, great people, but not a player on the world stage I'm afraid to say.
If you think otherwise then so be it.
You have had a fortunate lucky run to get this far.
If you blow it all away it will be a pity.
But my money is on you doing exactly that.
You give no impression that you know why or how you lucked into your current fabulous position and that means you wil not understand or know when your run is coming to an end.
Unless you are the next George Soros, you are not going to make an unbelievable profit on one currency trade.
A nice thought, but that's all it is.
Having said all the above, I sincerely wish you all the best.
I fear the worst but hope for the best.

heres an example of why the aussie will continue to rise.The darkest forces lie in the government
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday he believes strongly in the need to maintain a strong dollar and said the United States was determined to get its budget deficit down.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"I believe deeply that it's very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar," Geithner said in a meeting with Japanese reporters at the U.S. embassy.



The dollar's decline has been a source of concern in the export-heavy region, especially since top exporter China keeps its currency's value closely managed against the U.S. dollar and so felt less impact on prices for its exports than other Asian nations that let their currencies float freely.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, has fallen 7.6 percent this year and hit a 15-month low of 74.889 on Wednesday.

Geithner said the United States was well aware it must work to keep investors' confidence in U.S. economic policymaking.

"We bear a special responsibility for trying to make sure that we are implementing policies in the United States that will sustain confidence ... in investors around the world that as growth recovers and growth strengthens that we're going to bring our fiscal position back to a sustainable balance," he said.

The U.S. budget deficit soared to a record $1.4 trillion in the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30 and is expected to be about the same this fiscal year.




Geithner cited signs of stabilisation in the global economy but said it still needed the stimulus that governments around the world have poured in to foster stronger growth.

"We're at a point now where I think we all recognise that although the world economy is now growing again, you don't yet have all the conditions for a self-sustaining recovery led by the private sector," he said.

"In response to repeated questions about China's policy of closely managing the exchange rate for its yuan currency, Geithner credited China with helping get the global economy out of crisis and welcomed Beijing's commitment to adopt a more flexible currency over time.

"China has an excellent record of delivering on broad policy objectives," Geithner said. But he said a more flexible currency was only part of "a very complicated mix of policy changes" Beijing was attempting, which he said show encouraging signs of boosting domestic demand-led growth in the world's No.3 economy.

just read some of this total bulldust.Geither belives in a strong dollar but he NEEDS a weak dollar.The chinese love a weak dollar because it makes their exports CHEAPER.Whatever these 2 govts tell you the opposite is true.
china" we will consider revaluing the yuan" yeh right. USA - we need a strong dollar" yeh right.Just the opposite is what is actually occurring.But the chinese are turning their economy into internal consumption I hear you saying.yeh right.The fed may raise interest rates sooner rather than later- yeh right.
I'm tell ing you, the US dollar is dust.Bet against it.One day the tide will turn but by then the fortunes will have been made and the islands purchases.
remember to "book you profits" yeh right.

yes goose i kno. yu just keep believing it while the US dollar keeps falling. we will see who is the idiot then.

by the way goose i am up approx 32,000$ AUD since close last friday.I think thats about 13/15,000 pounds. Does that make me an idiot?I'm trying to educate you as to how currencies truly work.If you dont want to participate thats up to you.You just keep watching CNBC and believe them.

Goose
I think we may in fact be dealing with a wind up merchant here.
I'm starting to think the whole thing is a fake venture.
A pity in a way, but a relief in another.

frog goose and botty.I notice from other topics you 3 always have the same negative comments to anyone who says something is going up.Clearly a trio of negative heads.

Just to be sure I started this thread when the aussie was in the 88's.I didnt come in at the back end claiming I had already made 1.4 million.That claim lacks credibility.
And to rub it in to you 3 losers the aussie figures just realeased,unemployment here has dropped, yes thats right dropped.Further rate rises are now certain.
The AUD has popped up to 93.55 at the time of writing.
Gee I'm not an insider,I know nothing,Im a carpetbagger but hey the damn thing keep going up.
Hooray for the dark forces and I hope the the guys who are really trading here are still on.
You three get down to the local pub and start scrounging spent ciggie butts and whinging about how bad things are.
Me, I'll start perusing the retirement locations.

Incidentally if you have read other posts involving me you will know that a certain nameless poster on here thinks the opposite on my attitude.
That is I am in cloud cuckoo land as to the downside realities of the investing world out there.
Can't have it both ways buddy.
Be nice if we could though.

no post today-market must be down.

You mean unrealised profits methinks.
Big difference.

Good move Mrben.
I'm relieved that you have at last come to your senses.
Of course you know that it will almost certainly go up more now you have decided to cash in.
It's called sod's law, isn't it ?

Party time ?
Which beach and when ?

should get plenty of ladyboys for 130large!
well done on the trade btw. followed this thread with interest.

Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

mrben - well done and thanks a lot for the heads up ages ago. its made things a wee bit easier here, i can tell thee. enjoy thailand.

ylb - thanks - u did yr bit, too!

here she goes