Aussie dollar- could it be on again?

mr ben - we were on this on yr first recommendation. my pal, who is called ben, rang me today and said 'shall i get out? its trading 92????' i shall tell him to sit tight and wait for 98.

ps. im also known as what do i do know.

can i just repeat my thanks for this outstanding tip. thanks again, mr ben.

Mr Ben,followed you in again.Fingers crossed mate

wolsley,now is not the time to get out.If your friend is consevativly positioned and can stand any dip.If it goes to 1$ thats approx 8,000$ AUD per 100k position.My deposit is about 900$ per contract.If it falls say 1 cent thats a 1,000$ loss.I am in for 10 contracts as I am willing to risk 10K to make 80K.

I should add my average is 88.12

ours is a little bit higher - between 8860 - 8900.

keep squeezing girly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whoops!!

:^0 91.30

mmmm 91.30, I think i will go in for more contracts.

Mrben 17 Oct 05:44


mmmm 91.30, I think i will go in for more contracts.

What? and catch a falling knife... :D

Tbh I was nearly gonna follow your crazy punt but funds were nt quite available at the time. (phew!)

lolol bobby.Grow some balls man.the downside risk here is tiny.the upside huge.these are the kind of trades that traders dream about.nuthin goes up in a straight line.nuthin is free of risk.When this comes off you can pay yur mortgage off, like I already have.
Get on get on get ON!!

mondays update. opened 91.35 then up to 91.62 then down to 91.12 the up to 92.16 at the time of writing.I went in for 4 contracts at 91.31 and exited at 92.02.
71 pipsx 4 cts = 284 pips which is about $3,080 AUD profit for the trade.

Bobby-mmm falling knife? Thats how you trade for short term profits my friend.I repeat- this is a dream trade to follow.
I'm still long my original 10 contracts.

the trend is yr friend.

further info, this thursday the gov of the reserve bank was at a luncheon.He let slip that he expects the AUD$ to go to $1.10 in 2010. He quickly qualified his comments by saying he did not predict the price of curriencies.mmmm must have had a few too many chablis?
But too late the cat was already out of the bag.Time to increase my position size.

Is the party over Mrben ??

Or....... are you in for more contracts @ 91.29 :0




:D

After a spike to just above 92.00 down she drops on inflation figs :0

Has the trend changed MrBen? or will she re-visit 91.71 ?




:D

90.5

gotta love this trade.

its giving all u doubters the opportunity to get involved at decent levels.

dont be negative. dont gloat.

load up gentlemen.

touched 90.13 :0

I've been trading this on its S/R levels for the past 2 days.

But not getting too greedy. 130 pips for me :D

Tricky one now though.....88.50 would be touching the daily upward trend line.

I'll sit on my cash till then ;)

8 handle

Another 40 pips scalping this on the way down ;)

AUD needs a bounce on the dow to get back up into the 92's. At .9032 now but risk aversion and volatility appears to be back. I know the reasons for the USD's "safe haven" status but I don't understand them.

There you go then! By your own ommission you dont understand them so dont get involved in stuff !!

I'm not involved in "stuff" so no need for you to worry.....

toppity top. scroll down for original fredola.

sorry guys I have been away in new zealand doing some hiking.I'm still long my original 10 contracts.
Recent weakness was a great oppurtunity to add more contracts.The upward trend is firmly intact.Buy now for further profits.
I added 4 more contracts as soon as i got home @ 90.48. May exit these when it gets to 93.Get on get on get on!!!

I'm glad to hear you didn't take a serious fall on your hiking expedition.
Because you may be setting yourself up for one on your Aussie Dollar buying expedition.
The Aussie Dollar is very much a fringe currency by world standards and if and when th major traders go stale on it ( which they do regularly) it will plummet rapidly.
Even tight stops might not help you save the majority of your current running profits.
I'd be very careful if I was you about adding to your position.
Unless you really are a professional and work at the trading desk of a major bank, and can get the inside running on what the major players are saying and doing, then you are maybe heading for a big fall I'm afraid to say.
Hope I'm wromg though.
Nice to hear someone making good money in today's difficult currency and share markets.

botty,nice comments.Clearly you are very knowledeable about currencies and how the game works.But i am growing more confident there will be no catastrophic fall.Unless you are over positioned there is no need for stops.Even after the massive rise of the last 2 days from 89.15 to 91.32 ( and counting) this is STILL buying territory.Its still cheap if you think as I do that the thing will go to parity at least.
The way I am trading it is to buy into any dips , adding to my original contracts, then selling the extras on the rise.I am really conservativly positioned in relation to capital.Im thinking maybe im just being toooo conservative as this is the traders opportunity of a lifetime.To be honest with you im seriously considering doubling my current 10 to 20 contracts to hold for the run to 1$.However that would make me panic if there was a 4 cent fall from here.Maybe i will keep the extra 4 i bought yesterday.
Basically the aussie economy is strong, we have had 2 interest rate rises with more to come a certainty.demand for comodities is rising.Its up up up and away from here.Buy the aussie, pay off your house and come hiking with me!

I hope you're right but, believe me, currencies never do what you expect they should do, particularly in relation to a country's economic fundamentals.
Look at the Yen as a prime example. Shouldn't that be a basket case ? Oversimplyfying I know.
So many factors affect a currency in so many unpredictable ways, that it is perhaps the most dangerous form of financial speculation around.
The Aussie economy is small and highly dependent on the fortunes of others.
International speculators treat it pretty much as a sideshow to the big picture so, as I have said, don't get steamrollered if and when they decide they don't like it anymore for whatever reason.
The basic long term rule of trading currencies is don't bet all you have against the US Dollar ever.

added another 4 today at 90.48.I am now long 18 contracts. thta 198$ a pip.

Hope you're wearing rubber undies .
Btw I would love the Aussie to keep on rising as I have punted quite seriously on some property there, converting Sterling when it was around 42 p per dollar.
An unexpected windfall, but I don't really bank on it continuing long term.
Would be nice though.
Wouldn't do what you're doing though.
I like my night's rest too much.

$198 a pip :0


this will help you in the future Mrben

www.goreal.org.uk

hahahahahaha that was pretty funny bobby! I had a good laugh at that site.I dunno why yu guys think the AUD will fall?Because its gone up? Thats a ludicrious reason.Im up 74 pips since buying 4 more yesterday.Thats 14,600 aussie dollars in about 24 hours.Its going higher as i write this.How much more evidence do yu need?

The real issue will be for you to time your exit point correctly.
And please don't say that you're going to target parity as a level to get out at.
That would be so obvious as to be stupid.
Or you don't think so ?

yeh ur right botty.Parity is a dumb exit point.Realistically I think it will scream past parity to approach 1.10 but I want to be out before then.Im long 18 contracts now so I might bail the number to get all my money back in the 99's and let the balance ride.
Let me ask you this- if it does go to say 98's and then falls never to reach parity, does that make the current price of 91.50 a bargain?? err yes is the answer.Theres around 7,000 $ a contract in profit between here and there so really the time to go for is still now.
If I could get up the guts to go long 30 contracts and it goes to 98 plus I could pretty much retire from work and go travelling.Im 70/30 to upping my positions.

Mrben,
seriously. Good luck. I does look too good to be true. But I'm happy with my money I've made on the AUD. Just have nt got the balls to back it to parity.

oh what a lovely day!! Imagine the pleasure in waking up this morning and seeing the aussie had gapped up 70 pips from fridays close!!!!!!!
Those extra 8 contract I bought last week have netted approx 18,000$ since last wednesday.
At the current levels I am up about 65,000$ AUD with the 18 contracts as well as about 25,000$AUD from trading the dips.
If it reaches parity thats anothre approx 150,000$AUD. Staring down the barrel of 250k if parity arrives.

mmm who thinks I should increase to 30 contracts?

Mrben
You're getting greedy from the sound of things.
The little Aussie battler has now entered serious carry trade territory.
The pros are heavily manipulating things from now on.
You're at their mercy, don't for a moment think you aren't. You don't appear have any real iside professional knowledge as to what is going to happen or when.
If you're relying on what you read in the newspapers or on luncheon speeches by the head of their Reserve Bank, then you're trading on outdated info.
Be careful you don't overplay your hand.
You're up serious money now on what you invested and perhaps should start to look for exit points.
As they say in the investment world, always leave something on the table for someone else.

botty ur partly right, I can get carried away when things go well.BUT the reality is the manipulators are constanly say here that the AUD is overdone, over bought over the top.I say I'm over the bilshizer.
I dont have any access to inside info thats true but what makes you think that unless your the marketmaker you can't be manipulated as an insider?You can.
You just gotta face the fact that this thing is going up.Whay wont the insiders push it to heaven? Did you consider that? Maybe they have plans for 1.20?
You are assumming a one way manip to the downside only.I think if they are going to manip it it will be for the upside to ridulous levels. Everyone can talk parity, it will either not make it or smash through itJust like gold and the magic 1000 level.
Botty, i am more than aware of the manipultors you talk of but they cannot stop the inexorable rise.They might take out say 2 cents but then its back to the upside.Dont talk yourself out of the ball busting trade.I repeat- get the fkkkkkkk on!!!
others will say later" i shudda got on that" as they trundle off to work.I willl trundle off to the carribean hi ho hi hi hi ho hhoo its off to the beach I go!

what if they flat the yuan mr ben?

goosie there is less than zero chance the chinese will float their currency.Santa claus is a fairy tales and so is a yuan float.

ok mate. you know best.

Mrben
Just who do you think is selling to you all these contracts you are buying and why ?
Just think about it for a minute.
There's always two sides to any trade.
Are they fools for apparently selling when you're buying ?
Goose
Don't even ask Mrben to consider the implications of what the Chinese might do.
If he could reason down this route, he might brown his panties right away.
Mrben
At least consider taking some of your future punts in the form of buying call options. Limit your downside at least at the sacrifice of a part of the upside.

Btw Mrben, I already live on the beach permanently, both Caribbean and elsewhere, and so that is no incentive to join you in this wild overleveraged currency speculation you're indulging in.

oh botty thats great. send me ur address and we can share a pina colada soon.I may be over playing it, but not yet.theres a long way to go yet 92.85 at the time of writing, up 115 pips today.Thats about 22,700$ AUD to me for the day! Real money, real trade.
Botty, do you think theres a chance YOU are overplaying the "dark forces" ?If you live on multiple beach locations you must have mucho dinero? You could be buying an island if you were on the mighty aussie.The train has left the station grab a taxi , head it off anf jump on asap.

I'm going to stop reading your posts.
Impending train wrecks are not my thing.
Get off at a station soon.

Dont stop reading YLB!! This thread could be an interesting one.! I am sure you wish Mr Ben good luck though!!

just added 3 more contracts at 92.80.Now long 21 contracts. 220$ a pip.

mr ben i read your post with interest.
to be honest i m not here to discuss wheter the position you have is the right one or not ( incidentally i think it s a good position ).
what i think it s important that you consider is - i think botty pointed it out already - that your knowledge is not superior to anyone else in the market. rates are going higher, but for example do you know what is expected in the next few months? the rates are now at 3.5%, but the december bank bill future is trading at 4.17% ( and the strip is going up till an incredible 6.13% for the june11 contract ). all these rates hikes are already priced in the price of the oz at 93cents. a slower than expected hiking cycle would make the oz vulnarable. especially considering how unlikely is the rba to hike in december - historically a very rare event -.
at the moment you re riding a wave, a massive wave and you r displaying a good bravery to ride it out. but plse make sure your bravery dont become**yness and try to be always disciplined and leave your stops in order to be left with a comfortable and acceptable loss shud the trade not work out.
as a matter of fact why dont you book some of your profits and use these winnings to play the position thru options so that you know whats your downside.
on top i wd suggest you to play aud vs other ccies too if you love the monetary policy of the rba. aud vs nzd is a safer play as the volatility of the cross is much lower. or aud v cad ( cad and nzd are pricing in a much slower hiking cycle ), or whateveer else.
in any case, let it be clear to yourself, you re not playing the strenght of the aud, but the weakeness of the usd.
and that can turn at anytime. without warning.

Thank God the cavalry has finally arrived.
About time Johnny W.
Mr ben please read and absorb what JW has said above.
You might not, for good reason, want to listen to me, but I urge you to listen to the scotch man.
He is a pro and he does know what he's talking about.
At the very least, lock in some solid profits and get into some sort of option plays. You won't regret it.

Mrben
We all want you to keep some if not all of your great profits to date.
Come on m8, be sensible and prudent.
You've already made enough to finance any number of great vacations.
Do you seriously think you can, or even want to earn enough to retire forever ?

botty and johhnie, thanks for your comments.bUT YOU ARE BOTH MISSING THE POINT. This is the trade of a life time.Its not a trade to run scarred of.Its the life changer.Its staring you straight in the face and you are too brainwashed to belive it.The " dark forces" are rampantly buying and pushing up the price while you two swallow the generally acceepted"book you profits" Thats it be good little boys and do as your told.
This IS going thru the roof, the stars ARE aligned.This IS it.Btw AUD up today about 60 pips at 92.34 at the time of writing.Thats dare I say it, another 13,000$AUD profit today on the 21 contracts.No profit taking, no prisoners and no mercy.Its parity or die!!!

Mrben
I wish you all the best.
You'll obviously be a hero or a zero.
Time will tell.
Btw I know the Aussie economy well, and what is happening now with the AUD is totally unrepresentative of the mood in the streets.
Everybody I know in Aussie is totally lacking in confidence of their currency and economy.
Australia is a country that depends on the success and support of others more important than it.
It is a sideshow and will be for a long time to come.
Great place, great people, but not a player on the world stage I'm afraid to say.
If you think otherwise then so be it.
You have had a fortunate lucky run to get this far.
If you blow it all away it will be a pity.
But my money is on you doing exactly that.
You give no impression that you know why or how you lucked into your current fabulous position and that means you wil not understand or know when your run is coming to an end.
Unless you are the next George Soros, you are not going to make an unbelievable profit on one currency trade.
A nice thought, but that's all it is.
Having said all the above, I sincerely wish you all the best.
I fear the worst but hope for the best.

sell you the parity calls.

heres an example of why the aussie will continue to rise.The darkest forces lie in the government
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday he believes strongly in the need to maintain a strong dollar and said the United States was determined to get its budget deficit down.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"I believe deeply that it's very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar," Geithner said in a meeting with Japanese reporters at the U.S. embassy.



The dollar's decline has been a source of concern in the export-heavy region, especially since top exporter China keeps its currency's value closely managed against the U.S. dollar and so felt less impact on prices for its exports than other Asian nations that let their currencies float freely.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, has fallen 7.6 percent this year and hit a 15-month low of 74.889 on Wednesday.

Geithner said the United States was well aware it must work to keep investors' confidence in U.S. economic policymaking.

"We bear a special responsibility for trying to make sure that we are implementing policies in the United States that will sustain confidence ... in investors around the world that as growth recovers and growth strengthens that we're going to bring our fiscal position back to a sustainable balance," he said.

The U.S. budget deficit soared to a record $1.4 trillion in the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30 and is expected to be about the same this fiscal year.




Geithner cited signs of stabilisation in the global economy but said it still needed the stimulus that governments around the world have poured in to foster stronger growth.

"We're at a point now where I think we all recognise that although the world economy is now growing again, you don't yet have all the conditions for a self-sustaining recovery led by the private sector," he said.

"In response to repeated questions about China's policy of closely managing the exchange rate for its yuan currency, Geithner credited China with helping get the global economy out of crisis and welcomed Beijing's commitment to adopt a more flexible currency over time.

"China has an excellent record of delivering on broad policy objectives," Geithner said. But he said a more flexible currency was only part of "a very complicated mix of policy changes" Beijing was attempting, which he said show encouraging signs of boosting domestic demand-led growth in the world's No.3 economy.

just read some of this total bulldust.Geither belives in a strong dollar but he NEEDS a weak dollar.The chinese love a weak dollar because it makes their exports CHEAPER.Whatever these 2 govts tell you the opposite is true.
china" we will consider revaluing the yuan" yeh right. USA - we need a strong dollar" yeh right.Just the opposite is what is actually occurring.But the chinese are turning their economy into internal consumption I hear you saying.yeh right.The fed may raise interest rates sooner rather than later- yeh right.
I'm tell ing you, the US dollar is dust.Bet against it.One day the tide will turn but by then the fortunes will have been made and the islands purchases.
remember to "book you profits" yeh right.

you're an idiot. do you have any idea how much US debt the Chinese hold?

yes goose i kno. yu just keep believing it while the US dollar keeps falling. we will see who is the idiot then.

ok mate, fine by me.

by the way goose i am up approx 32,000$ AUD since close last friday.I think thats about 13/15,000 pounds. Does that make me an idiot?I'm trying to educate you as to how currencies truly work.If you dont want to participate thats up to you.You just keep watching CNBC and believe them.

P&L today now reads1.4m GBP mate. thanks.

Goose
I think we may in fact be dealing with a wind up merchant here.
I'm starting to think the whole thing is a fake venture.
A pity in a way, but a relief in another.

I don't now about a wind up merchant, but he is certainly starting to sound like a carpet salesman.

frog goose and botty.I notice from other topics you 3 always have the same negative comments to anyone who says something is going up.Clearly a trio of negative heads.

Just to be sure I started this thread when the aussie was in the 88's.I didnt come in at the back end claiming I had already made 1.4 million.That claim lacks credibility.
And to rub it in to you 3 losers the aussie figures just realeased,unemployment here has dropped, yes thats right dropped.Further rate rises are now certain.
The AUD has popped up to 93.55 at the time of writing.
Gee I'm not an insider,I know nothing,Im a carpetbagger but hey the damn thing keep going up.
Hooray for the dark forces and I hope the the guys who are really trading here are still on.
You three get down to the local pub and start scrounging spent ciggie butts and whinging about how bad things are.
Me, I'll start perusing the retirement locations.

Mrben
You misinterpret.
I'm not negative at all on what you have achieved.
I'm just saying it always makes sense to lock in a degree of profit, and then take some call option positions and ride this baby all the way to the end on virtually free money.
You'll enjoy it more, get more sleep and probably end up making more money than you will trading a naked long position.
The AUD if and when it does drop might do so fast and furiously and even gap down below any stops you have, or I hope you have.
Just be cautious and don't expect to retire on one excellent currency trade.
Many have gone before you on this road and few have succeeded in the manner you are hoping for and/or anticipating.
As I say I want you to succeed. No skin off my back if you do ( I'm not selling into this upward trend believe me ).
But when the TV media and the popular press and all and sundry start talking about parity or higher, then usually that is a warning signal to start to look for an exit.
That's not negative. That's playing the game right.
But it's up to you what you do of course.
You may prove me wrong, but the point is that you will not thus prove that this advice is fallacious.

Incidentally if you have read other posts involving me you will know that a certain nameless poster on here thinks the opposite on my attitude.
That is I am in cloud cuckoo land as to the downside realities of the investing world out there.
Can't have it both ways buddy.
Be nice if we could though.

mr ben-my claim has as much credibility as yours. i don't give a sh1t what you think about me to be honest with you, i know how much i'll be getting paid this year thanks. if you're such a hotshot trader you'll know where the market moved big yesterday.

i have no problem with you making money-well done for getting it on but to ignore fundamentals and have a tunnel view is crazy.

article in FT this morning on emerging market currencies i suggest you read.

now if you excuse me i have dog ends and dregs to be on the lookout for.

no post today-market must be down.

too busy counting the profits to post goose.

You mean unrealised profits methinks.
Big difference.

im thinking of cashing in botty.There seems little catayst on the horizon other than interest rate rises.Always struggles in the 93's.Im so far in front I;m getting confused.21 contracts means almost 23,000$ per cent move.All time high is in 98's recent high in 95's
Thinking to cash in in the next move into the 93's , then buying big on the dips.Say 30 contracts.

Good move Mrben.
I'm relieved that you have at last come to your senses.
Of course you know that it will almost certainly go up more now you have decided to cash in.
It's called sod's law, isn't it ?

NEWSFLASH !!!! total position cashed in. 93.45. My net result including dips trades is around 130,000$ AUD

Party time ?
Which beach and when ?

hhahaha I'm going to book into thailand for a month.I'llwait till feb though when all the christmas tourists have gone home.

should get plenty of ladyboys for 130large!
well done on the trade btw. followed this thread with interest.

Mr Ben

Why do I get the feeling you are going to regret listening to YLB??

Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

Btw I think it was probably more Johnny W's erudite views that tipped him into getting out of a trade which, whilst very good, was also potentially very dangerous.
I still think he made the right decision given his apparent skills and knowledge.
He lucked into an excellent trade and made excellent profits, whatever the reasons behind it.
What more could he really ask for ?
Let him hope to repeat it again, next time with a larger starting bank.
Could be the start of a great fortune ?

mrben - well done and thanks a lot for the heads up ages ago. its made things a wee bit easier here, i can tell thee. enjoy thailand.

ylb - thanks - u did yr bit, too!

YLB , yep you are probably right. Sounded like a lot of the investment was from the heart and a little optimistic. Fair play for having the guts to take a profit.. As you know better than most, taking a profit/loss is often the most difficult decision to make!

here she goes