Tradefair & Financials
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following on from my previous recommendationt o buy the aussue $$. The reserve bank gov was on tv again today raving on about inflation and how rates will have to go up.Currently aussie is 92.25.I started posting just 3 weeks ago it was around 86.Reality is its going up higher still.2 year high is mid 95"s with all time high mid 98's. I will put my neck on the line and say its headed for 1$ before christmas.
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mr ben - we were on this on yr first recommendation. my pal, who is called ben, rang me today and said 'shall i get out? its trading 92????' i shall tell him to sit tight and wait for 98.
ps. im also known as what do i do know. can i just repeat my thanks for this outstanding tip. thanks again, mr ben. |
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Mr Ben,followed you in again.Fingers crossed mate
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wolsley,now is not the time to get out.If your friend is consevativly positioned and can stand any dip.If it goes to 1$ thats approx 8,000$ AUD per 100k position.My deposit is about 900$ per contract.If it falls say 1 cent thats a 1,000$ loss.I am in for 10 contracts as I am willing to risk 10K to make 80K.
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I should add my average is 88.12
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ours is a little bit higher - between 8860 - 8900.
keep squeezing girly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Whoops!!
:^0 91.30 |
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mmmm 91.30, I think i will go in for more contracts.
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Mrben 17 Oct 05:44
mmmm 91.30, I think i will go in for more contracts. What? and catch a falling knife... :D Tbh I was nearly gonna follow your crazy punt but funds were nt quite available at the time. (phew!) |
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lolol bobby.Grow some balls man.the downside risk here is tiny.the upside huge.these are the kind of trades that traders dream about.nuthin goes up in a straight line.nuthin is free of risk.When this comes off you can pay yur mortgage off, like I already have.
Get on get on get ON!! |
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mondays update. opened 91.35 then up to 91.62 then down to 91.12 the up to 92.16 at the time of writing.I went in for 4 contracts at 91.31 and exited at 92.02.
71 pipsx 4 cts = 284 pips which is about $3,080 AUD profit for the trade. Bobby-mmm falling knife? Thats how you trade for short term profits my friend.I repeat- this is a dream trade to follow. I'm still long my original 10 contracts. |
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the trend is yr friend.
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further info, this thursday the gov of the reserve bank was at a luncheon.He let slip that he expects the AUD$ to go to $1.10 in 2010. He quickly qualified his comments by saying he did not predict the price of curriencies.mmmm must have had a few too many chablis?
But too late the cat was already out of the bag.Time to increase my position size. |
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Is the party over Mrben ??
Or....... are you in for more contracts @ 91.29 :0 :D |
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After a spike to just above 92.00 down she drops on inflation figs :0
Has the trend changed MrBen? or will she re-visit 91.71 ? :D |
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90.5
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gotta love this trade.
its giving all u doubters the opportunity to get involved at decent levels. dont be negative. dont gloat. load up gentlemen. |
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touched 90.13 :0
I've been trading this on its S/R levels for the past 2 days. But not getting too greedy. 130 pips for me :D Tricky one now though.....88.50 would be touching the daily upward trend line. I'll sit on my cash till then ;) |
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8 handle
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Another 40 pips scalping this on the way down ;)
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AUD needs a bounce on the dow to get back up into the 92's. At .9032 now but risk aversion and volatility appears to be back. I know the reasons for the USD's "safe haven" status but I don't understand them.
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There you go then! By your own ommission you dont understand them so dont get involved in stuff !!
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I'm not involved in "stuff" so no need for you to worry.....
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toppity top. scroll down for original fredola.
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sorry guys I have been away in new zealand doing some hiking.I'm still long my original 10 contracts.
Recent weakness was a great oppurtunity to add more contracts.The upward trend is firmly intact.Buy now for further profits. I added 4 more contracts as soon as i got home @ 90.48. May exit these when it gets to 93.Get on get on get on!!! |
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I'm glad to hear you didn't take a serious fall on your hiking expedition.
Because you may be setting yourself up for one on your Aussie Dollar buying expedition. The Aussie Dollar is very much a fringe currency by world standards and if and when th major traders go stale on it ( which they do regularly) it will plummet rapidly. Even tight stops might not help you save the majority of your current running profits. I'd be very careful if I was you about adding to your position. Unless you really are a professional and work at the trading desk of a major bank, and can get the inside running on what the major players are saying and doing, then you are maybe heading for a big fall I'm afraid to say. Hope I'm wromg though. Nice to hear someone making good money in today's difficult currency and share markets. |
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botty,nice comments.Clearly you are very knowledeable about currencies and how the game works.But i am growing more confident there will be no catastrophic fall.Unless you are over positioned there is no need for stops.Even after the massive rise of the last 2 days from 89.15 to 91.32 ( and counting) this is STILL buying territory.Its still cheap if you think as I do that the thing will go to parity at least.
The way I am trading it is to buy into any dips , adding to my original contracts, then selling the extras on the rise.I am really conservativly positioned in relation to capital.Im thinking maybe im just being toooo conservative as this is the traders opportunity of a lifetime.To be honest with you im seriously considering doubling my current 10 to 20 contracts to hold for the run to 1$.However that would make me panic if there was a 4 cent fall from here.Maybe i will keep the extra 4 i bought yesterday. Basically the aussie economy is strong, we have had 2 interest rate rises with more to come a certainty.demand for comodities is rising.Its up up up and away from here.Buy the aussie, pay off your house and come hiking with me! |
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I hope you're right but, believe me, currencies never do what you expect they should do, particularly in relation to a country's economic fundamentals.
Look at the Yen as a prime example. Shouldn't that be a basket case ? Oversimplyfying I know. So many factors affect a currency in so many unpredictable ways, that it is perhaps the most dangerous form of financial speculation around. The Aussie economy is small and highly dependent on the fortunes of others. International speculators treat it pretty much as a sideshow to the big picture so, as I have said, don't get steamrollered if and when they decide they don't like it anymore for whatever reason. The basic long term rule of trading currencies is don't bet all you have against the US Dollar ever. |
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added another 4 today at 90.48.I am now long 18 contracts. thta 198$ a pip.
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Hope you're wearing rubber undies .
Btw I would love the Aussie to keep on rising as I have punted quite seriously on some property there, converting Sterling when it was around 42 p per dollar. An unexpected windfall, but I don't really bank on it continuing long term. Would be nice though. Wouldn't do what you're doing though. I like my night's rest too much. |
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$198 a pip :0
this will help you in the future Mrben www.goreal.org.uk |
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hahahahahaha that was pretty funny bobby! I had a good laugh at that site.I dunno why yu guys think the AUD will fall?Because its gone up? Thats a ludicrious reason.Im up 74 pips since buying 4 more yesterday.Thats 14,600 aussie dollars in about 24 hours.Its going higher as i write this.How much more evidence do yu need?
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The real issue will be for you to time your exit point correctly.
And please don't say that you're going to target parity as a level to get out at. That would be so obvious as to be stupid. Or you don't think so ? |
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yeh ur right botty.Parity is a dumb exit point.Realistically I think it will scream past parity to approach 1.10 but I want to be out before then.Im long 18 contracts now so I might bail the number to get all my money back in the 99's and let the balance ride.
Let me ask you this- if it does go to say 98's and then falls never to reach parity, does that make the current price of 91.50 a bargain?? err yes is the answer.Theres around 7,000 $ a contract in profit between here and there so really the time to go for is still now. If I could get up the guts to go long 30 contracts and it goes to 98 plus I could pretty much retire from work and go travelling.Im 70/30 to upping my positions. |
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Mrben,
seriously. Good luck. I does look too good to be true. But I'm happy with my money I've made on the AUD. Just have nt got the balls to back it to parity. |
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oh what a lovely day!! Imagine the pleasure in waking up this morning and seeing the aussie had gapped up 70 pips from fridays close!!!!!!!
Those extra 8 contract I bought last week have netted approx 18,000$ since last wednesday. At the current levels I am up about 65,000$ AUD with the 18 contracts as well as about 25,000$AUD from trading the dips. If it reaches parity thats anothre approx 150,000$AUD. Staring down the barrel of 250k if parity arrives. mmm who thinks I should increase to 30 contracts? |
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Mrben
You're getting greedy from the sound of things. The little Aussie battler has now entered serious carry trade territory. The pros are heavily manipulating things from now on. You're at their mercy, don't for a moment think you aren't. You don't appear have any real iside professional knowledge as to what is going to happen or when. If you're relying on what you read in the newspapers or on luncheon speeches by the head of their Reserve Bank, then you're trading on outdated info. Be careful you don't overplay your hand. You're up serious money now on what you invested and perhaps should start to look for exit points. As they say in the investment world, always leave something on the table for someone else. |
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botty ur partly right, I can get carried away when things go well.BUT the reality is the manipulators are constanly say here that the AUD is overdone, over bought over the top.I say I'm over the bilshizer.
I dont have any access to inside info thats true but what makes you think that unless your the marketmaker you can't be manipulated as an insider?You can. You just gotta face the fact that this thing is going up.Whay wont the insiders push it to heaven? Did you consider that? Maybe they have plans for 1.20? You are assumming a one way manip to the downside only.I think if they are going to manip it it will be for the upside to ridulous levels. Everyone can talk parity, it will either not make it or smash through itJust like gold and the magic 1000 level. Botty, i am more than aware of the manipultors you talk of but they cannot stop the inexorable rise.They might take out say 2 cents but then its back to the upside.Dont talk yourself out of the ball busting trade.I repeat- get the fkkkkkkk on!!! others will say later" i shudda got on that" as they trundle off to work.I willl trundle off to the carribean hi ho hi hi hi ho hhoo its off to the beach I go! |
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what if they flat the yuan mr ben?
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goosie there is less than zero chance the chinese will float their currency.Santa claus is a fairy tales and so is a yuan float.
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