Tradefair & Financials
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19 Aug 09
07:52
Joined:
Date Joined:
14 Aug 09
20-30% 2 years.
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Look at the long run affordability, the fact we are in a BANKING CRISIS (Banking crisis takes 3-4 years to sort out historically min), which means credit cannot expand (house price inflation relies on credit expansion) and houses prices cannot rise and will more than likely fall untill the banking sector is back in full health. Unemployment to hit 3.5-4 million cannot be good news for house prices, no normal average first buyer with an average wage who can afford an average home, the market relies on someone with a higher the average wage buying a cheaper than average home=affordability still stinks.
All sounds so intelligent and logical.
Almost predictable in fact.
So how come markets are uiually unforecastable ?.
Have you chappies found some magical absolute forecasting formula that has eluded the world of economists and investors so far in history ?.
I'm not saying you are necessarily wrong but just that you are not necessarily right.
It's an unknown.
Such is life.
All I know is that is as totally wrong to be 100% uninvested in property as it is to be to the contrary.
Almost predictable in fact.
So how come markets are uiually unforecastable ?.
Have you chappies found some magical absolute forecasting formula that has eluded the world of economists and investors so far in history ?.
I'm not saying you are necessarily wrong but just that you are not necessarily right.
It's an unknown.
Such is life.
All I know is that is as totally wrong to be 100% uninvested in property as it is to be to the contrary.
it might be a 40% drop, it could be a 10%, I certaintly don't see any real rises for a good few years to come. Property has been (UK+US) in a bull market for the last ten years (look at the average high st and the number of EA's) a correction has to come, and that correction is likely to be at least as brutal as what's happened in the past since the real rises have been so much more dramatic. Investing/Developing property is completely different, if I am involved in this I don't think about what's going to happen to prices in 2-4 years, i think how much can I add value, whats a good price to buy and what are the costs of the work.
Unemployment willnot have that big an affect on the housing market. Absolute fact. Unemployment by itself will not cause those drops. Interest rates and Unemployment in tandem? maybe.. But that is unlikelym given rates are likely to stay at current levels for at least a year.
This is all about supply and demand. Few properties on the market and enough people confident enough to buy. QE shoud eventually help create jobs , increase assett prices before BOE eventually withdraws the billions it has pumped in bty selling the assetts it purchased. Before contemplating how much prices will fall, peopel need to consider the amount of governemnt intervention in the housing market , banking a nd financial sectors.
My view is that house prices will be about the same in 2 years as they are now. Obviously some areas will suffer more than others
This is all about supply and demand. Few properties on the market and enough people confident enough to buy. QE shoud eventually help create jobs , increase assett prices before BOE eventually withdraws the billions it has pumped in bty selling the assetts it purchased. Before contemplating how much prices will fall, peopel need to consider the amount of governemnt intervention in the housing market , banking a nd financial sectors.
My view is that house prices will be about the same in 2 years as they are now. Obviously some areas will suffer more than others
Unemployment will not have that big an affect on the housing market.
QE shoud eventually help create jobs
Saved for posterity.
QE shoud eventually help create jobs
Saved for posterity.
the sht storm is about to hit. imo banks are in a much worse position that you think. the bailouts were a total waste of money
I think it possible for house prices to stabilise and even tick up a bit before the election.
Shortly after the election though the climate changes with a vengeance. Assuming an incoming Tory administration finds the complete financial picture is considerably worse than NuLab have let on, and not forgetting that the rating agencies are threatening to downgrade UK debt unless borrowing levels are addressed effectively, Osborne is likely to introduce a savage emergency budget.
It makes senses for the Tories to do this as it allows them to try and blame Brown for the mess, stops the rating agencies downgrading UK debt, and gives them the chance of seeing the benefits of appropriate action before the next election.
The emergency budget must address the excessive borrowing and this implies lower public sector spending and higher taxes. It will be in the Tories' interests to paint the bleakest picture possible to justify severe cuts. This must hit consumer confidence and consumer spending.
Remember, NuLab are throwing the kitchen sink at the problem to try and get votes at the 2010 election, the Tories will be much more concerned about the likely picture in 2014-2015.
Shortly after the election though the climate changes with a vengeance. Assuming an incoming Tory administration finds the complete financial picture is considerably worse than NuLab have let on, and not forgetting that the rating agencies are threatening to downgrade UK debt unless borrowing levels are addressed effectively, Osborne is likely to introduce a savage emergency budget.
It makes senses for the Tories to do this as it allows them to try and blame Brown for the mess, stops the rating agencies downgrading UK debt, and gives them the chance of seeing the benefits of appropriate action before the next election.
The emergency budget must address the excessive borrowing and this implies lower public sector spending and higher taxes. It will be in the Tories' interests to paint the bleakest picture possible to justify severe cuts. This must hit consumer confidence and consumer spending.
Remember, NuLab are throwing the kitchen sink at the problem to try and get votes at the 2010 election, the Tories will be much more concerned about the likely picture in 2014-2015.
i think we will see
higher taxes
higher unemployment
higher inflation
higher interest rates as will be unavoidable
all are a disaster for housing, and in fact the country as a whole.
i think more banks will default too (further pressure on housing) and would not have a penny in that sector as this unwinds
higher taxes
higher unemployment
higher inflation
higher interest rates as will be unavoidable
all are a disaster for housing, and in fact the country as a whole.
i think more banks will default too (further pressure on housing) and would not have a penny in that sector as this unwinds
Absolutely hilarious. I guess none of you predicting 25-30% drops actually own a property?
so we're comedians now?
no property here.
the difference between us chisel, is that you think the talking heads know what they're talking about, and that the government is looking out for the population's interest. you are in for a rude awakening.
no property here.
the difference between us chisel, is that you think the talking heads know what they're talking about, and that the government is looking out for the population's interest. you are in for a rude awakening.
and u call me hilarious yet you come out with statements like
Unemployment willnot have that big an affect on the housing market. Absolute fact.
lol. care to elaborate? how the fk is it absolute fact looool
Unemployment willnot have that big an affect on the housing market. Absolute fact.
lol. care to elaborate? how the fk is it absolute fact looool
Don
I feel that people that have not bought a home seem to want to see prices drop by more, because they think (incorrectly and incoherently) that they will one day be able to say "I told you so"!! This is simply not a good enough argument..Sorry
I feel that people that have not bought a home seem to want to see prices drop by more, because they think (incorrectly and incoherently) that they will one day be able to say "I told you so"!! This is simply not a good enough argument..Sorry
lmao. that's no different to you wanting to go up in value because it suits your business - its called vested interest.
im sure there are some that want prices to go down for that reason like you say.
it's nothing to do with "i told you so". and nothing to do with what i want - it's about what is happening.
i assume by the absence of any comment that you cannot back up your assertion that it is a fact that unemployment increases will have little effect on house prices.
you sir, live in cloud cuckoo land. regrettably so does most of the population however, because they listen to clowns like you.
im sure there are some that want prices to go down for that reason like you say.
it's nothing to do with "i told you so". and nothing to do with what i want - it's about what is happening.
i assume by the absence of any comment that you cannot back up your assertion that it is a fact that unemployment increases will have little effect on house prices.
you sir, live in cloud cuckoo land. regrettably so does most of the population however, because they listen to clowns like you.
Stop talking about yourself Don.
It's not good manners.
It's not good manners.
lol very school boy. will you be insulting my mother next? :)
Contact the friendly people at Frank Knight and they will let you mnake the eqqivelent of a spread bet that assume prices will fall just over 2.0% by December 2010
I think we are going to see a bigger crash next time
Reasons:
A gov't that is inflation hungry (to pay off debt) - will lead to higher interest rates. this for me will be the litmus test of our economy and I think we will fall.
Lack of Gov't housing tax incentives once election is done.
over supply of poor properties that still havent been cleared off balance sheets.Once demand and credit improves we could see a flood of theseproperties on the market which will only bring prices down.
Unemployment - dont really need to explain this
Higher Taxes- to cut the UK debt
Its also worth bearing in mind that average house prices (£156k) are still over 6 times the average salary (£25k)
Not sure of the figures but have a feeling we could see a big problem in the UK. We have seen that our housing market is credit and sentiment driven. It could happen quite easily again as the sharks take profits in 2 yrs tims on their cash heavy investments and leave the poor holding the baby!
Reasons:
A gov't that is inflation hungry (to pay off debt) - will lead to higher interest rates. this for me will be the litmus test of our economy and I think we will fall.
Lack of Gov't housing tax incentives once election is done.
over supply of poor properties that still havent been cleared off balance sheets.Once demand and credit improves we could see a flood of theseproperties on the market which will only bring prices down.
Unemployment - dont really need to explain this
Higher Taxes- to cut the UK debt
Its also worth bearing in mind that average house prices (£156k) are still over 6 times the average salary (£25k)
Not sure of the figures but have a feeling we could see a big problem in the UK. We have seen that our housing market is credit and sentiment driven. It could happen quite easily again as the sharks take profits in 2 yrs tims on their cash heavy investments and leave the poor holding the baby!
God only knows crediter..
These are desperate ramblings from people being proven wrong on a daily basis. They have stuck their heads in the sand, and are basing their arguments on how things were a year ago!!
Based on today, prices would rise, if you presume rates will stay at 0.5% forever. This is not going to happen, so the job is to predict when Interest rates will rise and what they will rise by... My view is that we are safe for 12 months, then who knows !
These are desperate ramblings from people being proven wrong on a daily basis. They have stuck their heads in the sand, and are basing their arguments on how things were a year ago!!
Based on today, prices would rise, if you presume rates will stay at 0.5% forever. This is not going to happen, so the job is to predict when Interest rates will rise and what they will rise by... My view is that we are safe for 12 months, then who knows !
desperate ramblings
we are currently living in a false economy
we are not sure of the effects of the QE program yet but there ARE bug risks of high inflation
With high inflation folliws high interest rates (although the next Gov't may delay this as much as possible)
Are you saying that as a country we can afford interest rates in excess of 5% and possibly higher?
Poor properties obviously refers to the New Build and buy to let sector which are all still sitting on balance books with no real value
we are currently living in a false economy
we are not sure of the effects of the QE program yet but there ARE bug risks of high inflation
With high inflation folliws high interest rates (although the next Gov't may delay this as much as possible)
Are you saying that as a country we can afford interest rates in excess of 5% and possibly higher?
Poor properties obviously refers to the New Build and buy to let sector which are all still sitting on balance books with no real value
at the moment there seems to be a stabilisation, which in my opinion is purely down the a higher demand than supply. Property values have already decreased and people are sittingon their houses as they are innegative equity. There may come a point through higher unemployment or raises in interest rates, that the people will be forced to sell, and at that point the prices will tumble
Or a third wave of financial crisis involving banks and sterling. The sort of thing that everyone sort of understands so becomes front page news on BBC sun etc, and then the market loses confidence in Banks/Brown/Economy etc. suddenly more sellers than buyers. won't belong now.
Jimbo
It will happen , but it is not happening any time soon. Interest rates are expected to stay at current levels until at least summer 2010, and expectations arte that they wikl not rise above 3% for at least 3 years. This will coincide with the withdrawal of QE and lower interest rates again in the future This country could see low interest rates fior a very VERY long time.
It will happen , but it is not happening any time soon. Interest rates are expected to stay at current levels until at least summer 2010, and expectations arte that they wikl not rise above 3% for at least 3 years. This will coincide with the withdrawal of QE and lower interest rates again in the future This country could see low interest rates fior a very VERY long time.
Interest rates hold the key to housing, stay as they are and return to around the 2% target and we may get away with small losses in house values, interest rate rises over 2% and maybe up to 5% will have householders running for cover, repossessions will soar and the double dip recession will be upon us, unemployment a huge factor too.
Crediter
I do not think that is rubbish to be honest! I know of many people that could have lost their homes or at least been forced to sell them if rates had stayed high. That flood of properties to the market would and could see prices struggle to hold up.
On the flip side crediter, you are right. People will buy a home if teh finance is available. They will pay higher rates, and teh temptation for banks will be to increase risk to get greater rewards. You and I also know Creiter , that a return to BOE rates at 4% does not necessarily mean that Fixed rates being offered will be any hiogher than they are today. My only surprise is that the fall in LIBOR to 0.54% has not been publicised recently. Banks that were citing reasons for Variable rate cuts not being possible because LIBOR was 150 point over BOE rate have been very quiet of late. SWAP rates are also falling, 1 year money well under 1% and 2, 3, 5 etcv also falling recently. No sign of great mortgage rates, although rates are falling slightly
I do not think that is rubbish to be honest! I know of many people that could have lost their homes or at least been forced to sell them if rates had stayed high. That flood of properties to the market would and could see prices struggle to hold up.
On the flip side crediter, you are right. People will buy a home if teh finance is available. They will pay higher rates, and teh temptation for banks will be to increase risk to get greater rewards. You and I also know Creiter , that a return to BOE rates at 4% does not necessarily mean that Fixed rates being offered will be any hiogher than they are today. My only surprise is that the fall in LIBOR to 0.54% has not been publicised recently. Banks that were citing reasons for Variable rate cuts not being possible because LIBOR was 150 point over BOE rate have been very quiet of late. SWAP rates are also falling, 1 year money well under 1% and 2, 3, 5 etcv also falling recently. No sign of great mortgage rates, although rates are falling slightly
weren't the interest rates close to 9% in the middle of a recession in 1990/1991 when the tories were in power?
The tories don't give a sh1t about people losing their houses. They care about keeping the money in the country and the small percentage of people that fund them that benefit from high interest rates
Magic
At one point during the ERM business they got up to something like 15%.
At one point during the ERM business they got up to something like 15%.
yep 15%...but mine didnt drop in price .....lived in surrey...as i said ..should be 2 house price indexes
one for quality property ..other for flats on lease...shop accomadation;deprived areas;auctions..ect.
Crediter
This is what we are banging on about!! In certain areas prices are holding up so much better than others...Most on here read teh headlines and presume prices are rising and falling at teh same level all over teh country.. It is insane!
This is what we are banging on about!! In certain areas prices are holding up so much better than others...Most on here read teh headlines and presume prices are rising and falling at teh same level all over teh country.. It is insane!
Most on here read teh headlines
most on here may read the headlines , but they draw their own conclusions .....
sheep like you read the headlines ......and believe it !!!
most on here may read the headlines , but they draw their own conclusions .....
sheep like you read the headlines ......and believe it !!!
Looks like your area conforms to averages Chisel.
2009 Flat Semi-Detached Detached Terraced total
Number of Sales 95 65 65 35 260
Average price £ 147385 174503 252359 166313
total sales 14001575 11342695 16403335 5820955 47568560
2008 Flat Semi-Detached Detached Terraced
Number of Sales 214 91 157 96 558
Average price £ 145452 220148 314814 178844
% change 1.33 -20.73 -19.84 -7.01
total sales 31126728 20033468 49425798 17169024 117755018
2009 average price 182956
2008 average price 211030.4982
change -13.30352648
2009 Flat Semi-Detached Detached Terraced total
Number of Sales 95 65 65 35 260
Average price £ 147385 174503 252359 166313
total sales 14001575 11342695 16403335 5820955 47568560
2008 Flat Semi-Detached Detached Terraced
Number of Sales 214 91 157 96 558
Average price £ 145452 220148 314814 178844
% change 1.33 -20.73 -19.84 -7.01
total sales 31126728 20033468 49425798 17169024 117755018
2009 average price 182956
2008 average price 211030.4982
change -13.30352648
most on here read headlines.....actually some have there own companies..
lol, owning a company means little imo.
I was recently privy to an analysis of Land Registry Data by region, property type and by Acorn profile. On the whole little discernible difference. The few subtle, (and profitable), areas that stood out have not been muted on here so far. It certainly is not regional or even a simple affluent demographic that has an effect on trends. Far from it even.
I was recently privy to an analysis of Land Registry Data by region, property type and by Acorn profile. On the whole little discernible difference. The few subtle, (and profitable), areas that stood out have not been muted on here so far. It certainly is not regional or even a simple affluent demographic that has an effect on trends. Far from it even.
I run my own small company, i also dont claim to be a property specialist, whoever i do claim to know my area, s.wales, and can tell you via experience that houses here are selling at approx, 15% below asking price, i know this as i have just sold one, after a prolonged spell on the market.( the asking price had also been reduced by 15% prior to last christmas ) .
just got an e mail from ourproperty, prices houses are going for are well below asking price in the windows.
auction prices becoming very keen too this last couple of months.
Chisel, crediter, etc
you all talk like the banking losses are well behind us and low interest and QE are sustainable. The problem in this kind of environment is that such a blanket strategy to sort out the FINANCIAL SYSTEM AS a whole means the distortions in the functioning of the MARKETS will occur. Pretty much everything is going up, stocks, property, bonds, gold, commodities, etc. This tells me something dodgy is going on. The banking losses are far from over, there's massive issues in eastern europe which could trigger a fresh round of losses and possibly be a bigger probelm than the subprime crisis in the US. History repeats itself, banking crisis's are big deals, when an economy hasn't got credit asset destruction is the only result, free money QE and low interest rates can only do so much. People who paid 300k for 2 bed flats in the city centre of Leeds made bad choices, (the rent didn't cover the mortgage, etc) and at the moment alot of these people are getting away with it, that will not last forever. Switched on and shrewd property specialists on the frontline in places like cushman and wakefield, Savils, etc all now this crisis may take years to work through. Untill the banking sector is clean real stabilisation can not take place.
you all talk like the banking losses are well behind us and low interest and QE are sustainable. The problem in this kind of environment is that such a blanket strategy to sort out the FINANCIAL SYSTEM AS a whole means the distortions in the functioning of the MARKETS will occur. Pretty much everything is going up, stocks, property, bonds, gold, commodities, etc. This tells me something dodgy is going on. The banking losses are far from over, there's massive issues in eastern europe which could trigger a fresh round of losses and possibly be a bigger probelm than the subprime crisis in the US. History repeats itself, banking crisis's are big deals, when an economy hasn't got credit asset destruction is the only result, free money QE and low interest rates can only do so much. People who paid 300k for 2 bed flats in the city centre of Leeds made bad choices, (the rent didn't cover the mortgage, etc) and at the moment alot of these people are getting away with it, that will not last forever. Switched on and shrewd property specialists on the frontline in places like cushman and wakefield, Savils, etc all now this crisis may take years to work through. Untill the banking sector is clean real stabilisation can not take place.
Have you seen the demographics of places in SE England. I can assure you in a lot of places there will be no drops in house prices. Shame, I admit, but that is the reality.
Rates likelyt to saty at 0.5% until 2011 and at 2% until 2014!! Dont think we will see too many struggling with mortgage payments with rates that low.
Sue, unem,ployment is increasing , but we are not going to see interest rates rise against that backdrop..Seems we disagree again.
Crediter
You are right, Grey Shark pokes his head in every now an d then but he doesnt seem convinced by his argument does he?
Sue, unem,ployment is increasing , but we are not going to see interest rates rise against that backdrop..Seems we disagree again.
Crediter
You are right, Grey Shark pokes his head in every now an d then but he doesnt seem convinced by his argument does he?
crediter 11 Oct 17:32
grey shark re-read your thread...utter bolex.
Not my thread , it's anyone's i just started it , the most prolific poster on there is chisel formerly shelts , in fact he can have the thread as it means so much to him .... and as for it being boll0x , the opening post predicted 15% nominal drops for 2008 , IIRC Halifax said prices dropped 16% for 2008 .... back in Jan. 2008 most economists , the government , chisel/shelts were oblivious or in complete denial to what was about to happen they were the one's talking b0llox back then .... and they still are LOL
grey shark re-read your thread...utter bolex.
Not my thread , it's anyone's i just started it , the most prolific poster on there is chisel formerly shelts , in fact he can have the thread as it means so much to him .... and as for it being boll0x , the opening post predicted 15% nominal drops for 2008 , IIRC Halifax said prices dropped 16% for 2008 .... back in Jan. 2008 most economists , the government , chisel/shelts were oblivious or in complete denial to what was about to happen they were the one's talking b0llox back then .... and they still are LOL
chisel 12 Oct 09:40
You are right, Grey Shark pokes his head in every now and then
Have you not noticed a lot of regular posters only poke their head in now again to engage you chisel , ever wonder why ?? Because after a day or two engaging you they probably like me wonder why their bothering with you , it's a complete waste of time .....
You are right, Grey Shark pokes his head in every now and then
Have you not noticed a lot of regular posters only poke their head in now again to engage you chisel , ever wonder why ?? Because after a day or two engaging you they probably like me wonder why their bothering with you , it's a complete waste of time .....
care to comment on the land registry figures for your area Shelts? They seem to be conspiring to make you look a fool.
beware us homeowners...30% drop by next august....straight from mikaads beano.
damn max
think i lost it there
2 bottles of red isn't a good way to start your hols :)
think i lost it there
2 bottles of red isn't a good way to start your hols :)
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