TimeformBlog

Timeform give their verdict on Friday's sole Group 1 contest, the Coronation Stakes over a mile...

Bugie d'Amore won a Group 3 in Milan for Bruno Grizzetti at 2 yrs, and creditable fourth of nine to Laugh Out Loud in Prix de Sandringham at Chantilly on return for new yard. Plenty more needed up in class.

Cardigan is clearly open to improvement having landed a 6f Haydock maiden on sole start last year, although not seen so far in 2012 and this represents a huge step up, for all the longer trip should suit.

Elusive Kate was one of last year's top juveniles, landing Prix Marcel Boussac in October. Easy to forgive Breeders' Cup flop, but has missed several engagements this year, and needs to be spot on to take this.

Fallen For You recorded her best effort at 2 yrs when second in May Hill at Doncaster. Won minor AW event on return, and better than result in Group 3 at Lingfield last time, but this is a much tougher assignment.

Homecoming Queen showed marked improvement beating Starscope by nine lengths in 1000 Guineas, but nowhere near that form in Irish equivalent last time, and possible she needs soft ground to be seen at her best.

Intense Pink put up he best effort when landing a heavy-ground maiden at Pontefract (6f) in April, but seemingly put in her place when down the field in listed race at Haydock last time, and plenty on her plate now.

Irish History is an impeccably-bred filly who won 14-runner maiden at Windsor in May by six lengths, and was unlucky in a listed race at Sandown last time. Sure to do much better, and no forlorn hope at this level.

Laugh Out Loud was unraced as a juvenile, but kept busy this year, winning listed race at York and Group 2 Prix de Sandringham at Chantilly. Only poor run came on soft ground in 1000 Guineas.

Maybe made big strides last summer, her unbeaten season culminating with win in Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. Return to 1m will suit after non-staying effort in Oaks last time. NON RUNNER.

Russelliana built on form of debut win when second in Cherry Hinton at Newmarket in July, but flopped in Princess Margaret next time, and plenty to prove after a laboured effort on return.

Samitar won Albany Stakes here last year, and back to her very best when taking Irish 1000 Guineas last time. That form franked when Ishvana won Jersey Stakes on Wednesday, and deserves utmost respect.

Starscope was having only her third start when second to Homecoming Queen in 1000 Guineas, but didn't look keen when third in 1¼m listed race at Newbury last time, and isn't one to trust implicitly.

Timeform Verdict:

1. Samitar
2. Laugh Out Loud
3. Homecoming Queen

Timeform View: Samitar had her Irish Guineas win boosted in the Jersey Stakes, and is the selection. Laugh Out Loud should be considered if the going doesn't deteriorate too much, while conversely Homecoming Queen would come into the equation if the ground does become soft.



For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

The unbeaten Frankel increased his Timeform rating to an unparalleled 147 with a scintillating victory in the Queen Anne Stakes on day one of Royal Ascot 2012. Simon Rowlands explains the historical significance and some of the processes involved.


Frankel's performance in winning the Queen Anne Stakes on the opening day of Royal Ascot 2012 by 11 lengths rightly had the scribes reaching for superlatives. As racing fans, we can all take a few moments out to appreciate such a display, instinctively, for what it was: equine magnificence.

Yet, when the dust has settled, Frankel will be judged by history not just for the emotions he provoked and for the memories he gave us, but for his achievements in cold, hard terms.

How, then, do those achievements stack up, in clinical, rather than in visceral, terms?

Timeform was founded in 1948 by Phil Bull, a man who prided himself in dispassionate analysis. That mindset has informed every person who has worked at the company since.

Recent generations have been acutely aware of the legacy of Bull's philosophy, and of the defining horses and performances over what is more than 60 years now.

On the Flat, Sea-Bird (born in 1962, rated 145), Brigadier Gerard (born in 1968, rated 144) and Tudor Minstrel (born in 1944, rated 144) have towered over those who have come since. Until Frankel came along, no horse had breached the 140 rating barrier since the 1970s.

So, it was not done lightly when Frankel was rated 143 at the end of his three-year-old career. And it is not done lightly now that he, on 147, is rated higher than any horse in Timeform's history.

Frankel's 147 rating is not simply a response to just one remarkable performance, either. It might have been plausible to have rated him that highly on his facile win in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May as well, but caution was exercised given the race's position early in the season.

Frankel has now won 11 races out of 11, the last six of them Group 1s by a combined winning margin of 31 and three-quarter lengths. That is an astonishing record even when judged against the greats of yesteryear.

Frankel may have taken his form to a different level at Royal Ascot on Tuesday, but it was not as if the effort came out of the blue, in other words.

An explanation of the mechanics of Timeform's assessment of this year's Queen Anne Stakes is, of course, required.

One important factor is the poundage for distance beaten in use. Margins between horses have, since 1997, been conversions of the time lapses between those horses at the finish. These conversions are made by the racecourse Judge on a fixed scale according to the official going.

It is, therefore, necessary first to come up with a pounds per second figure, into which the lengths per second allowance is divided, in order to come up with pounds per length.

The official conversion in use for the first two races at Royal Ascot on Tuesday was 5.5, in accordance with the official description of the going as "good to soft". Later races were calculated at 6 lengths per second, in line with an overdue change in the going to "good".

It follows that Frankel's 11 lengths winning margin was equivalent, more or less, to 2 seconds. If his race had taken place later on the card, that winning margin would have been returned as 12 lengths instead.

It is also folly to treat poundage allowances the same for a given race distance irrespective of the time of the race. Frankel ran the straight mile in 1 min 37.85 sec - not far off a course record - and it follows that each unit time converted into a length will have been greater than in a race run more slowly.

Both of these factors correctly give rise to a pounds-per-length allowance that is higher than under conventional circumstances.

Also, and very much to the point, Timeform categorically does not favour the dubious convention of rating races "around" cherry-picked horses. As we have explained often before, such "yardstick" handicapping is unscientific and far too subjective.

Instead, a race is tackled statistically according to historical measures (race standards) and information about the achievements of the individual runners themselves (prior-rating standards).

Both of these tried-and-trusted measures place Frankel's Queen Anne win well into the 140s on the Timeform scale. Race standards could justify the figure being as high as 148, prior-rating standards make it a few pounds less.

"Dispassionate analysis" points to a figure in the mid- to high-140s, in other words.

Frankel's 147 rating actually has his old foe Excelebration running a good few lengths below his previous form. It has the third and fourth, Side Glance and Indomito, within 2 lb of their previous form. And it has every other horse that contested the race below its best by between 4 and 34 lb.

We will leave it to others to explain the reasoning behind their own assessments. But it should be pointed out that the BHA - which works with a lower and rigid poundage allowance, and which favours yardstick handicapping - operates at a level that is, at least now, several pounds below Timeform's.

There have been plenty of performances over the decades since 1948 in which the heart has said "yes" but the head has said "no". This is not one of them.

Frankel's stunning Queen Anne Stakes win is emphatically one in which the heart and head can provide the same answer: "Yes. Oh, yes indeed!"


For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Timeform run the rule over the St James's Palace Stakes, a Group 1 for three-year-olds on the opening day of the Royal Meeting...


Arnold Lane showed useful form as a 2-y-o, but looked out of his depth when tried in Group company. Much improved when beating Gabrial in a handicap at Chester last month, but this looks a bridge too far.

Born to Sea landed listed race on Curragh debut last year. Found out at the top level since, although set too much to do when fifth to Power in Irish 2000 Guineas (hooded), and remains capable of better.

Cogito was unraced at 2 yrs, but has won both starts this season, taking step up to listed company in his stride at Sandown last time. Open to further improvement, but set a stiff task at this lofty level.

Dragon Pulse won Futurity Stakes for Jessica Harrington last year, and took scalp of Dabirsim on debut for new yard at Longchamp in April. Failed to settle when well held in Poulains last time, and not dismissed.

Fencing ran creditably behind Camelot in Racing Post Trophy and 2000 Guineas, but once again had his limitations exposed in the Dante last time, and likely to be vulnerable once more back over 1m.

Foxtrot Romeo was having just fourth career start when finding only Power too strong in Irish 2000 Guineas on reappearance. No obvious reason why he'll turn that form around but place claims again.

Gabrial progressing along right lines, building on second to Arnold Lane at Chester when taking 1m handicap at Haydock last time. Has been supplemented for this race, but another big leap forward needed now.

Gregorian improved on 2-y-o efforts when winning 7f handicap at Newbury on return, and excelled himself when fifth to Lucayan in Poulains at Longchamp. Well held in Prix du Jockey Club last time, though.

Hermival was an excellent third to French Fifteen in Prix Djebel on return, and built on that when third to Camelot in 2000 Guineas. Effort best ignored in Irish equivalent last time, and one to take seriously.

Lucayan has improved with each start, taking listed race at Toulouse before beating 11 others in a rather messy Poule d'Essai des Poulains (in cheekpieces) last time. Wide stall could make life tricky here.

Miblish improved on juvenile efforts when runner-up in a 6-runner minor event at Kempton in April, but soundly beaten in Craven Stakes last time, and looks out of his depth at this level of competition.

Most Improved's best effort at 2 yrs when third in Dewhurst on final start, and was gambled for 2000 Guineas on reports of impressive work only to miss the race. Easy to excuse latest run, and not one to give up on.

Power finished in front of Most Improved when an excellent second in the Dewhurst, and put 2000 Guineas flop behind him when winning Irish equivalent last time. Sets the standard on that effort.

Saigon won maiden and listed race at 2 yrs, but limitations have been well exposed in stronger company since, and he's easy to oppose at this level.

The Nile has quickly made up into a smart performer, following a maiden win at Lingfield with good second in listed race at Newmarket. Step back up to 1m will suit, and makes some each-way appeal.

Wrote enjoyed a progressive 2-y-o, ending campaign with victory in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Not repeated that form this season, although ostensibly used as a pacemaker for Power in Irish 2000 Guineas last time.

Timeform Verdict
1. Hermival
2. Power
3. The Nile

Timeform View: Power sets the standard on his Irish 2000 Guineas win, but he's unlikely to represent much value, and it's worth chancing Hermival to turn the tables having had excuses at the Curragh. The Nile is progressing steadily, and looks to have each-way claims from a handy draw.



For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Jeremy Grayson focuses on the action at the northern track today, picking a pair of horses to back.

Another galloping right-hand course some 305 miles further south will provide rather higher quality turf entertainment for the rest of this week, but Carlisle's card this afternoon is far from devoid of competitive (if humble) fare.

A (whisper it) dry run-up to racetime may improve conditions a touch from the overnight soft, but they're unlikely to go so far the other way as to inconvenience Indian Giver, who thus rates a confident selection in the concluding 1m handicap (17:45).

A winner over this trip on officially soft going at Hamilton in May, Hugh McWilliams' filly has continued to shape as if in her best, most consistent seam of form since autumn 2010 in two subsequent outings, despite the good to firm conditions of both manifestly suiting less well. The mark of 58 to which she was raised (from 54) for that score looked fair at the time and has remained unchanged in the interim, and today represents the most realistic chance she has had since then to prove as much.

The question marks over rivals Copperwood (notably poorer strike-rate on turf), Ykikamoocow (frequently peaks with seasonal debut effort) and Master Of Dance (reportedly gelded since last run only nine days ago) only serve to strengthen Indian Giver's case.

Alan Berry continues to scratch around for winners a little, but reasons still abound for siding with his 5f handicap representative Red Roar (15:45).

Galloping right-handed sprint courses with uphill finishes seem to bring out the best in the Chineur mare at this trip, as evidenced by a record of 713121 from six 5f starts at Beverley (including her last win, on soft ground and off just 1lb lower than today) and a close third off 69 from one previous try over today's C&D.

A speedy battle for early supremacy this afternoon looks assured, with Wild Sauce having led soon after the stalls flew open on her last four starts and Boucher Garcon similarly in front by the first furlong on seven of his last 10 outings. That should give the generally more patiently ridden Red Roar something to aim at, and although sometimes prone to racing lazily it's hard to imagine Graham Lee, on board her for the first time, will stand for any such malingering.

Recommended Bets

Back Indian Giver @ 6.2 in the 17:45 at Carlisle
Back Red Roar @ 9.0 in the 15:45 at Carlisle


For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Hurricane Higgins made successful debut on polytrack in early 2011 but temperament has become increasingly suspect and passed over here, for all that he posted a sound effort at Newmarket last time.

The Betchworth Kid is a hold-up sort who captured Nottingham listed race last spring. Failed to reproduce that level of form in 5 subsequent Flat starts in 2011, though, and looks vulnerable here.

Address Unknown won a pair of minor events and third in listed company last season for Dermot Weld. Not in same form in 3 starts for new yard, including when well held in Chester Cup (visored) and hard to fancy.

Merchant of Dubai made a fair start to 2011 campaign but not in top form after, despite creditable third in November Handicap. Tailed off on return in the Chester Cup last month and best to look elsewhere.

Deauville Flyer was successful twice at up to 2m here in 2010, and back on the scoresheet when dead-heating at Pontefract on return in April. Failed to trouble the judge back here since and now tried in cheekpieces.

Constant Contact's highlight of 2011 campaign was win in 1¼m Kempton handicap for Andrew Balding. Successful over hurdles in April and decent effort back on the Flat at Hamilton last month.

Qahriman was progressive in 2011, successful in 1½m Ffos Las maiden, and shaped well when 1¼ lengths second to Star Commander on return at Chester (13.5f) last month. Up 3 lb, but has to be respected.

Lordofthehouse was a much-improved handicapper in 2011, winning 3 times, and gained recompense for near miss on return at Thirsk when decisively landing 2m handicap at Haydock 13 days ago. 6 lb rise looks fair.

Local Hero is a useful hurdler and improved effort on first Flat start for 19 months when second in hot Newmarket handicap last month. Chased home Grumeti at Ascot (1½m) since and stiffer test here will help.

Persian Peril held form well in 2011 and produced a career-best when scoring at Hamilton (13f) early last month. However, well held here since and probably in the grip of the handicapper now.

Bridle Belle won twice from 4 starts at 2 yrs and landed 1½m Ripon handicap decisively in July. Creditable 2 lengths sixth of 15 to Easy Tems here last time, but stamina may be stretched upped to this trip.

Smokey Oakey is a former Lincoln winner, but only win since 2008 came in an Aintree novice hurdle last June. Missed 2011 Flat season and 3 starts in this sphere since the turn of the year haven't been inspiring.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Qahriman
2. Lordofthehouse
3. Local Hero

Timeform View: There could be more to come from Qahriman and, with Ryan Moore doing the steering, he is taken to see off Lordofthehouse and Local Hero.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Albamara romped home in 8.5f Epsom maiden last summer having looked unlucky loser at Kempton a week earlier. No show in Fillies' Mile following month but remains with potential for 2012.

Apothecary raced solely on AW, winning Lingfield maiden and 9.5f Wolverhampton handicap. Respectable effort in Oaks Trial last month and respected, though Great Heavens seemingly yard's first string.

Devine Guest shaped with promise when third in C&D maiden won by Vow in April, weakening close home. Open to improvement, but this is a good deal tougher.

Great Heavens is a sister to Nathaniel. Form of Haydock maiden has worked out and she did her bit for it when easily winning 11.5f Yarmouth event on return (heavy going). Drops back in trip but looks the class act.

Inchina landed C&D maiden on return in April. Poor effort in Cheshire Oaks next time, though, off bridle before most, and needs to bounce back.

Miss Cato boasts an impressive strike rate, winning 4 from 6 starts. Another easy success at Sandown last time, but that came off a mark of 69, and this likely to require a whole lot more.

Villa Royale showed promise around 1m at 2 yrs, though hung badly left on polytrack final start. Could have more to offer this year now stepped up in trip.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Great Heavens
2. Albamara
3. Apothecary

Timeform Verdict: Great Heavens drops in trip after winning easily over 11.5f last month, and though she's bred to stay beyond that, she's hard to oppose such is the untapped potential she possesses. Albamara, who was thought good enough to contest a Group 1 at 2 yrs, likely has more to offer this term and looks a threat.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Eye of the Tiger was a smart performer when with Andre Fabre/Jens Hirschberger, winning a Group 2 at Cologne for latter in 2010. No show either start for this yard and only of interest if strong in betting.

Tmaam relished stiffer stamina test when winning 11.7f Bath maiden last September and good effort when second to Anatolian on handicap debut later that month. Not seen since, but remains with potential.

Purification was off 10 months prior to reappearance and showed benefit of that spin when good third to Ramona Chase at Windsor last month. Blinkers tried now and one for the shortlist with conditions fine.

Number Theory returned an improved performer with 2 runs here, third in strong handicap on return before winning over this C&D by 5 lengths last month. Bumped up 10 lb for that but still warrants respect.

Ittirad is a strong sort who was clear-cut winner of 1½m Newcastle maiden last spring. In and out since, but gelded prior to return at Epsom where he was better than result in fourth. Could be worth chancing.

Very Good Day has only a maiden win to his credit and endured fruitless time of things in 2011. Respectable runs both starts this season, but had things go his way last time and generally looks vulnerable.

Mica Mika won over hurdles in December and has returned to Flat better than ever, winning at Chester before finishing runner-up to Mulaqen at York. 3 lb higher and up against more unexposed rivals here.

Alakhan is an imposing sort who returned from 17 months off with impressive success in 7f Chester handicap last September. Better than result next 3 starts, though has stamina to prove upped to this trip now.

Bollin Greta started 2011 with a win at Nottingham, but questions grew during the year over her resolution for all she generally ran well in form terms. Likely to find couple too strong on return to action.

Royal Swain was back to his best when scoring in 1¾m handicap at Doncaster early last month, but poor effort at Musselburgh next time. Likely to bounce back but vulnerable to less exposed types for win purposes.

Timeform Verdict:
1. Ittirad
2. Purification
3. Tmaam

Timeform View: An interesting handicap featuring a clutch of unexposed 4-y-o's who look as if they've yet to hit their respective ceilings. Ittirad just about tops the list after an encouraging comeback, with Purification, Tmaam and Number Theory others to consider.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Mia's Boy is a hold-up performer who won 2 of last 3 starts in 2011. Run well in defeat on polytrack this year and not ruled out back at a more suitable trip following a couple of lesser recent efforts on turf.

Bravo Echo is winless since taking Kempton event over 1m in January 2011, stopping quickly returned to turf in April and chequered record remains a concern now tongue tied back on AW.

Piscean was a cosy winner of 7f handicaps at Wolverhampton and Kempton earlier in the year. Not the type to stay down for long following a modest run last time, but never won off a mark this high.

Shifting Star was back on the scoreboard over C&D in January. Gutsy display to edge out Piscean and Corporal Maddox when going in again at Goodwood last month and no reason why he shouldn't give another good account.

Ducal has been progressive for Sir Mark Prescott and continued in same vein for this yard, landing brace of 7f Kempton handicaps. Collared dying strides back there last time and ought to go well again.

Sacrosanctus was successful 4 times at up to 7f in 2011 (including on polytrack). Back to best when worn down late in a big-field 6f Epsom handicap recently and another that enters calculations.

Caldercruix registered second AW win at Southwell (6f) in March. Continued run of consistent efforts when close-up sixth off this mark at Doncaster (7f) in April and not out of this by any means.

Corporal Maddox is feasibly treated after drawing a blank since juvenile days. Rubbing shoulders with Shifting Star and Piscean after a troubled passage at Goodwood last month and contender if getting the breaks.

Baby Strange is a terrific stable servant who looks ready to strike again based on his prominent efforts in recent weeks, but all 8 career wins have come over sprint distances.

Timeform Verdict
1. Ducal
2. Shifting Star
3. Corporal Maddox

Timeform View: Nothing can be ruled out in a cracking handicap, Ducal just shading the verdict after maintaining his upward curve in defeat at Kempton last time. Shifting Star and Corporal Maddox may prove the best alternatives.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Rafeej was unbeaten at 2 yrs, winning Bath maiden and Ffos Las nursery. Good ¾-length fourth of 16 to Mince in Newmarket handicap at this trip last month after flopping on return, and respected.

Springinmystep built on earlier promise when winning 5f maiden at Beverley last term. Solid effort on return over C&D last month, though disappointed since over same trip at Ayr. Tongue tie back on.

Waseem Faris won Bath maiden on debut last summer, and has acquitted himself respectably on most starts since, including at Haydock last month, though simply seems in the handicapper's grip as things stand.

Orders From Rome ran a blinder when sixth in Super Sprint at Newbury last July, and finally broke his duck in 5f maiden at Southwell last month, beating Demora by length. Looks shade vulnerable on handicap bow.

Chooseday was a Haydock maiden winner on debut last summer, and career best last week when 1¾ lengths second of 12 to Takealookatmenow at Ripon, keeping on. Seems sure to remain competitive.

Half A Billion is a dual winner this year who has failed to make the frame in just 2 of his 13 starts to date, the latter of which best excused when doing too much too soon at Haydock last month. Still warrants respect.

Whisky Bravo is a prominent racer, whose 3 wins all gained on fibresand, landing pair of Southwell nurseries in December. Couple of creditable efforts in turf handicaps this term but looks vulnerable here.

All Or Nothin shaped as if in need of experience when fifth in York maiden sole start at 2 yrs. Gelded since, made all to win 10-runner Chester maiden (6.1f) in May. Likely to progress further.

Right Result was a winner of an AW maiden on final 2-y-o start (left John Quinn after). Better than result on a couple of occasions for new yard this year, and no shock if he figures from falling mark.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Chooseday
2. All or Nothin
3. Rafeej

Timeform View: Chooseday is taken to land this for the yard successful in this race last year, though the gelding will have to confirm the impression made at Ripon last week to beat off the unexposed pair All Or Nothin and, in particular, Rafeej.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

13:40 - A tricky-looking maiden with the majority unraced isn't the perfect way to start a placepot but experience is likely to count for plenty and we're going to take the pair who have already had an outing. Annie's Fortune and Summer Isles both made encouraging debuts and are expected to improve for the run, whilst the form of the latter's debut has worked out fairly well.

14:10 - Athenian and Isola Verde are both well handicapped and open to more progress than their rivals, so they look obvious choices in the second leg. Athenian was a selection in Monday's placepot when she landed a fillies' stakes at Chepstow and looks the type to go close on her hat-trick bid. Isola Verde won her one and only start at Redcar and there should be plenty more to come from the filly.

14:45 - Bella Ophelia shaped well on her latest start, responding well to pressure on her turf debut despite being positioned with very little chance of winning the race. A step up in trip could bring about further improvement, and the Timeform top-rated runner could be the one they all have to beat. Symphony Time is another to keep on side, stepping back down in trip having shaped as if a mile was too far for her last time - she rates as a good insurance policy.

15:20 - Shantaram has form well in advance of all of his rivals in the fourth leg and it would be a huge surprise if he wasn't to go on and win the race, let alone place. His second behind derby runner-up Main Sequence is very solid and Shantaram doesn't need to perform anywhere near his best to land this afternoon's contest.

15:55 - Illustrious Prince is a consistent sort and looks a solid selection to place in what could prove a difficult fifth leg. Atlantic Sport is very well handicapped on the pick of his form last year and is capable of going well fresh.

16:30 - Thomas Chippendale is a banker in the final leg, Sir Henry Cecil's three-year-old expected to improve markedly for his seasonal reappearance. Thomas Chippendale shaped like one of the best horses in the race last time at Newbury, travelling powerfully throughout, before displaying signs of inexperience inside the closing stages and eventually finishing fifth. The way in which the race was run would have disadvantaged him and he remains open to plenty of improvement on just his fourth racecourse start.

Selections
13:40 - 1, 9
14:10 - 8, 9
14:45 - 6, 8
15:20 - 7
15:55 - 1, 10
16:30 - 3
=16 Lines

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/