TimeformBlog

Moose Moran was useful on Flat earlier in career but largely disappointing over hurdles for N. Henderson/D. Pipe, leaving the latter following a poor effort in February. Hard to assess on return/debut for new yard.

Rumh was a decisive all-the-way winner of listed event on quick ground at Newbury (1¼m) a year ago. Often faced stiff tasks when failing to match that since, but this easier if proving stamina for trip.

Spensley has a good record on AW, winning 4 times here in 2010/2011. Found life too tough upped in class final 2 starts last year, and 4 lb higher on return now, but respected all the same.

Clearwater Bay looked a potentially smart stayer for A. O'Brien at 3 yrs but offered little on return from 21-month absence at Royal Ascot last month for this yard. Hard to assess what ability he retains.

Late Telegraph is a well-bred and lightly-raced type who won Goodwood maiden on debut. Shaped well on 1½m return there in May, but disappointing at Newmarket last time and bit to prove now.

Chabada was in control a long way out when making all at Wolverhampton (1¾m) in March to complete a hat-trick of AW wins. Below form switched to turf last 2 starts, but will be much more at home on polytrack.

Sirius Superstar showed improved form when beaten a neck at Salisbury and third at Newbury last summer. Off 12 months and gelded since, player now facing true test of stamina, if fit enough first time up.

The Bells O Peover has largely struggled this year, failing to build on promise of 6¼ lengths third of 13 at Pontefract (17f) penultimate start when only fourth at Ayr last time. 1 lb lower now, but more needed.

Iron Condor won at Yarmouth last year and back-to-form neck second of 6 at Folkestone on Flat return in April. Not as good since, but just 1 lb higher than win here over 1½m in 2010 so not dismissed lightly.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Sirius Superstar
2. Rumh
3. Chabada

Timeform Verdict: Rumh probably sets the standard based on her efforts in 2011, but she has yet to recapture her best form in 2 starts this year and with stamina to prove upped to 2m it may be worth siding with Sirius Superstar, who looks certain to have more to offer now tackling staying distances. Chabada is another who can't be ruled out returning to her favoured AW.

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14:15 - Tenancy is Timeform top-rated for the opening race of the afternoon at Brighton, considered 4 lb superior to his nearest rival, and he looks a good choice in what's a potentially tricky handicap. His lack of consistency would be a slight worry for backers, however, and Louphole is also taken, that one arguably better than his recent form suggests. He could be an interesting proposition dropped back to six furlongs and racing on turf once again and hopefully the pair will be good enough to see us through.

14:45 - Perfect Honour has decent C&D form, including when second here last week, and he can go well once again at a venue where he tends to thrive. The first-time cheekpieces seemed to work on his latest outing but it remains to be seen whether this inconsistent individual can follow-up with a similar effort. Whiteoak Lady should be able to pick up the pieces if that is the case, given her solid efforts in C&D contests on her last two starts.

15:15 - Mr Fickle remains unexposed in handicaps and he should be able to improve on his third-placed effort last time out at Lingfield. The six furlongs on offer on that occasion looked to be on the short side and, with the step up in trip particularly favourable this afternoon, Mr Fickle rates as banker material in a race where he could be open to more progress than his rivals.

15:45 - Scottish Vespers improved between his first and second start and the form he demonstrated last time is good enough to see off all of his rivals this afternoon. We only need a top three finish, however, and that looks almost guaranteed if he can reproduce anything close to his best in what looks an average race.

16:15 - There isn't much to separate the runners in the fifth leg based on pure form so we're going to have to go with Tinkerbell Will, who is probably more straightforward than the majority of these. Devon Diva and Satwa Ballerina and two others who can go well in what could prove a placepot buster for many permutations.

16:45 - Shouda is an automatic selection after two impressive C&D performances in his two most recent starts and there is every reason to believe that he can run well once again back at this venue. Haymarket switched to Mark Johnston at the start of this year and he is the type who should do better for this yard, still relatively unexposed after just a handful of starts.

Selections:
14:15 - 1, 9
14:45 - 2, 11
15:15 - 3
15:45 - 6
16:15 - 6, 10, 12
16:45 - 7, 8
= 24 Lines

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Filun had a good run early last season, winning 3 times, 2 of them over C&D. Good second on return visit here in May, but bounce back called for following more recent modest effort.

Stentorian is a front runner who won 7f Leicester maiden as 2-y-o, but struggled last term for Mark Johnston. Low-key start returned to Flat for this yard in May, and one to treat with caution now.

Amistress held her form well 1ast year, winning 3 times at up to 11.5f. Looked on the way back at Haydock in May, and on a competitive mark, so no surprise if she figured.

The Calling Curlew best efforts when twice placed over this C&D, finishing behind Filun when third in May. Well below par upped to 1¾m last time, but likely to fare better back at this more suitable trip.

Ostentation isn't the most straightforward. Best run since last win over 1¼m here in June when fourth on return visit to this venue last time, but little room for manoeuvre off current mark.

Unex Renoir failed to win for John Gosden, despite doing little untoward. Struggle continued since joining this yard, finishing well held off reduced mark last time and opposable again.

Shouda twice proved successful at up to 1½m on turf/AW in 2011. Unlucky not to finish closer when runner-up in a first-time hood over C&D last week and major player racing off the same mark here.

Haymarket boasts fair form (trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni at 2), bouncing back to best when fourth on handicap bow at Kempton (11f) in May. Has to prove he can string good runs together but claims if he can.

Autarch cashed in off reduced mark over 1¼m here in May. Well held on AW since but no surprise to see him fare better back on turf at venue which suits him well.

Excellent News appeared to relish the extra distance when successful in 1½m Wolverhampton handicap in March. Not built on that since, folding tamely both runs back on turf in May.

Timeform Verdict:
1. Shouda
2. Autarch
3. Filun

Timeform View: Shouda did well to finish as close as he did when conceding first run in a first-time hood over this C&D last week and looks sure to go close off the same mark here. Autarch and Filun could prove the most troublesome.

Camelot is the obvious starting point in Saturday's Group 1 and he is head and shoulders above his contemporaries in what could prove a high-quality renewal of the Irish Derby. Camelot burst onto the scene last October with a runaway victory in the RP Trophy and the son of Montjeu hasn't looked back since, taking both the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby in 2012. The manner of his Epsom success last time suggested Camelot is a real top-class performer with even further untapped potential, as he brushed aside the likes of Main Sequence and Astrology with relative ease. Camelot travelled through the race powerfully and found plenty for pressure, overhauling Astrology inside the closing stages and staying on all the way to the line. He could take this race in before a final assault on the British Triple Crown and it would be hugely surprising if he couldn't land the spoils on Saturday. Camelot probably won't need to run to anything like his best on Saturday, with this season's star three-year-old considered far superior to the majority of his Curragh rivals on the Timeform figures.

Aidan O'Brien has plenty of others to choose from in Saturday's race with Learn, Astrology, Daddy Long Legs, Father of Science and Imperial Monarch to choose from. Of the quintet, Astrology has the highest Timeform rating, having finished third behind Camelot in the Epsom Derby but the 121-rated performer still has plenty to find with his stablemate, and isn't certain to run after his below-par performance in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last week.

Imperial Monarch's defeat in the French Derby is a performance that can be forgiven given the way the race was run, and he could bounce back to prove a potential thorn in Camelot's side, the son of Galileo having looked progressive up until his Chantilly defeat. Prior to that effort, Imperial Monarch had won the Sandown Classic Trial, with Thought Worthy second and Rougemont back in third, form that looked fairly solid at the time. There is every chance that Imperial Monarch could regain the progressive thread on Saturday and he looks a more than capable second string should Camelot fail to fire.

Speaking of Which is the highest rated of those not trained by Aidan O'Brien after his runaway victory in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes last time, the Dermot Weld three-year-old having recorded a Timeform performance figure of 120 for his nine-length victory. The first-time blinkers and tongue strap seemed to work wonders for him on that occasion as he travelled powerfully throughout the contest before quickening clear of some useful rivals. Speaking of Which boasts plenty of speed in his pedigree but his style suggests the mile and a half trip should not pose a problem, for all he still has 10 lb to find with Camelot.

John Oxx and Jim Bolger are responsible for the remaining four runners with this year's field, which is set to be an all-Irish affair. Light Heavy is the sole representative from the Bolger yard, that one having won the Ballysax Stakes and the Derrinstown Derby Trial already this season. The 115-rated performer had Call To Battle two and a half lengths in behind when taking the first-named contest and it is difficult to envisage John Oxx's charge reversing that form come Saturday. Call to Battle has since finished third in the Chester Vase, finishing behind the likes of Mickdaam and Model Pupil and, based on those form lines, both Light Heavy and Call to Battle look unlikely winners, for all the former arguably possesses the slightly better chance of victory.

The two remaining John Oxx runners are Akeed Mofeed and Born to Sea, the pair looking to emulate Sinndar and Alamshar in taking this Group 1 prize for their esteemed handler. Born to Sea, in accordance with his immaculate pedigree, has been fairly highly tried since taking a listed contest on debut but he is yet to experience another victory, his best performance having come last time out when a staying-on fifth in the St James' Palace Stakes. Born to Sea is yet to race beyond the one mile distance but both his pedigree and style alike suggest that he should be capable of seeing out the extra trip. It is interesting that Oxx has decided to throw him into what could prove a very strong contest and he looks open to progression over the trip, despite having some 15 lb to find with Camelot.

Akeed Mofeed arguably has the greatest chance of the Oxx runners, if returning in one piece, having looked a smart prospect when taking a Leopardstown maiden last season before finishing second on heavy ground in the Beresford Stakes. The surface was possibly his undoing on that occasion but the way he stuck to his task was still admirable and he looked a horse to follow for the 2012 season. Akeed Mofeed hasn't been seen since which is, of course, a big worry but, if over the problems that have so far dogged his campaign, he could give the favourite most to think about.

Camelot looks to have this race won and the Aidan O'Brien superstar probably doesn't have to be at his best to land the victory. In a race where the others are playing for second place, Akeed Mofeed could be the one to take minor honours having shaped as if a potentially useful horse towards the tail end of last season.

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Roger Sez is a come-from-behind performer who improved for fitting of blinkers when landing a Group 3 in the mud at Ayr (6f) in September. Struggled for form since though, and looks up against it under penalty.

Appealing's previous AW form looks strong, and stepped up on that when winning on turf/handicap debut at Yarmouth 2 weeks ago, driven clear. Quickly upped to listed company now, and may do better yet.

Charlotte Rosina was well supported when winning on return in April, and bounced back from lesser effort last month with improved, if slightly opportunistic, win at Newmarket 3 weeks ago. More needed here however.

Colorful Notion raced solely at Meydan thus far in 2012, not disgraced when fifth to Gamilati on reappearance but well beaten in a hood next time. Bit better on latest run in March, but more needed here after break.

Diala bumped into subsequent Group 1 winner on debut and confirmed herself a smart prospect when winning at Newmarket in October. Little impact in 1000 Guineas on return, but merits plenty of respect here.

Emman Bee is a tail flasher who has won at Lingfield and Newbury already this year. Possibly found race coming too soon when disappointing on latest start, but this a much bigger challenge.

Free Verse landed a Windsor maiden on debut, and ended 2011 by taking 7f Catterick nursery on soft ground. Unsuited by drop to 6f when well-backed third last time and very much respected back at this trip.

Intense Pink's best effort when landing a heavy-ground maiden at Pontefract (6f) on return in April. Struggled in better company since (out of depth in Coronation Stakes last week) but too soon to write off.

Kickingthelilly is a three-time winner on polytrack, and back to form on softer ground when fourth at Doncaster recently, enjoying run of race. Very stiff task at Ascot last week, but more needed here all the same.

Poisson d'Or is a daughter of Cape Cross out of a 1m winner at 2 yrs. Confirmed promise of first 2 starts when easily winning Newmarket maiden 3 weeks ago, and looks sure to improve again. Respected.

Queens Revenge made winning debut at Ripon (5f) last year but largely below form since, including both starts in 2012. Likely soft ground a potential concern, and others preferred.

Radio Gaga stepped up on promising 2011 form in nursery/listed events when second in Fred Darling on return in April. Well held in 1000 Guineas last time, but very much respected back at this level.

Sunday Times greatly improved when runner-up in Cheveley Park last September, and better than bare form when sixth in Nell Gywn on return. Trip/task too much in 1000 Guineas last time, but leading claims here.

Switcher was a good fourth in Royal Ascot's Albany Stakes on second start and improved again when third in Deauville Group 3 in August. Reappearance in April forgivable, but well held in Sandringham last week.

Timeform Verdict:
1. Diala
2. Radio Gaga
3. Sunday Times

Timeform View: Diala made little impact in the 1000 Guineas when last seen, but such was the impression she created when winning at Newmarket on her final start in 2011 that she is worth another chance here. Radio Gaga and Sunday Times both reoppose from the Guineas and are feared most, alongside the unexposed Poisson d'Or.

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It's arguably Carlisle's biggest day of the year, with both the Carlisle Bell and Cumberland Plate drawing attention to Cumbria as on no other day in the racing calendar. We're not touching either of the big races, though in the consolation race for the Bell, held at 15:00, Lockantanks represents a great bet. Largely progressive over the winter, the Michael Appleby-trained gelding looked to be right back in the swing of things when an unlucky third at Doncaster recently, hampered at a vital stage as he went down to Levitate and subsequent winner Ingleby Exceed. In off the same mark here (which is fully a stone lower than his official rating on all-weather), Lockantanks has leading claims to go two better.

We switch to Salisbury for our second selection, again foregoing the feature race in search of a winner. The 16:55 race over twelve furlongs contains a few interesting three-year-olds, but none that can match up to the promise of Rye House. He's something of a typical Sir Michael Stoute charge and, with that yard showing real signs of recovery in recent weeks, he has taken big steps forward this season, winning a handicap at Windsor last month. Rye House was only a head in front of Mon of Plenty that day, but the runner-up was in turn nine lengths clear of the rest and it could well be the case that a 7lb rise incurred by the winner won't be enough to stop him going in again.

We return to Carlisle for our closing selection, in their final raced scheduled for 17:05. On the face of it, Best Trip doesn't take much picking out as he's on a hat-trick, though the fact he's dropping back from seven furlongs (on soft ground) to five and is taking on Pitkin, who seeks a four-timer, has led his price to be bigger than might have been expected. Our advice is not to worry: speed has been the strongest characteristic in Best Trip's last two wins, while prior to that burst of improvement- which came about upon him joining Brian Ellison from Richard Guest- he'd looked a raw speedster. Throw in the fact that Pitkin has never looked the heartiest of battlers and Best Trip looks a storming bet.

Timeform SmartPlays
Back Lockantanks @ 4.3 in the 15:00 at Carlisle
Back Rye House @ 2.5 in the 16:55 at Salisbury
Back Best Trip @ 3.45 in the 17:05 at Carlisle

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18:20 - An apprentices' handicap is never an easy way to start the placepot and this doesn't offer any exception in what could develop into a trappy affair. Do More Business at least arrives in good form and he looks a solid selection in a race where he is Timeform top-rated, whilst Scarborough Lily is arguably the most likely alternative winner. The pair should be good enough to see us through given their consistency.

18:50 - Steady Gaze is Timeform top-rated and has three from three course-and-distance successes to his name making him a banker selection in the second race. The 11 runners mean that the first three places pay and it would be a surprise if Steady Gaze wasn't to feature in the finish at a course he clearly acts well around.

19:20 - The maiden doesn't looks a particularly pleasant affair with so many unraced types, but of those we're going to side with Salutation who represents powerful connections and has the interesting jockey booking of Kieren Fallon. Snowboarder, from Mahmood Al Zarooni's yard, also looks an interesting prospect given his expensive cost as a yearling and those are the two we side with in a race where it could pay to follow the market.

19:50 - Rivas Rhapsody has finished placed in all five of her career starts so far and there is every reason to believe that she can repeat that achievement this evening. She also has two Kempton victories to her name within that period and she rates as our second banker of the day. The drop back down in trip shouldn't pose too many problems and, with nine runners, she's a confident selection.

20:20 - Just the two runners in the fifth leg and we may as well take the pair and cheer on the underdog, that underdog being Woodland Mill against favourite Janoub Nibras.

20:50 - Communicator has looked a potentially useful handicapper since his fourth-placed effort at Royal Ascot last season but things haven't quite worked out for the Andrew Balding inmate. He has shaped well for Balding on his two starts this season having left Michael Bell and the feeling is that Communicator still has plenty more to offer over middle distances. He heads the Timeform ratings for the finale at Kempton and is the main choice. Sand Skier is the other who gets the go ahead after his useful recent record on the polytrack for Hans Adielson. His latest start marked his best effort for quite some time and he comes here in good form in a race where some of his rivals have question marks.

Selections:
18:20 - 3, 8
18:50 - 1
19:20 - 8, 10
19:50 - 3
20:20 - 1, 3
20:50 - 2, 14
= 16 Lines

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Mawaakef bounced back from poor effort at Sandown to score in 7f Yarmouth handicap 3 days later. Excellent second at Epsom last time (clear of the third) but up 8 lb as a result.

George Guru is lightly raced and has taken form to a new level on AW this winter, winning 3 times. Suggested he would prove as good on turf when sixth at Sandown last time, but slower ground a worry.

Norse Blues produced more than respectable efforts in handicaps off this mark since regaining winning thread at Doncaster (1m) in March, but likely to be found wanting again all the same.

Vainglory bagged 1m handicap at York in October and signs of return to form on last 2 starts. On a competitive mark and shouldn't mind conditions, so dangerous to rule out.

Shifting Star done well since joining this yard and added to his tally over 7f at Goodwood last month. Respectable run off revised mark on the AW last time, but suspicion this will test his stamina too much.

Shavansky is a slow starter but did win 1m Chepstow handicap last summer. Took step back in the right direction when second at Kempton last month and wasn't disgraced at Newmarket last time. On handy mark.

Trade Commissioner is a gelded son of Montjeu out of Sun Chariot winner Spinning Queen. Built on debut promise when comfortably landing Sandown maiden last month and respectable run on handicap debut. Still unexposed.

Shamaal Nibras was back to winning ways for new yard in 7f Kempton handicap in April, and added to tally on testing ground at Sandown last time. Another step in right direction there, but did have run of race.

Leviathan is a hold-up performer who ended losing run over C&D 12 months ago. Potentially well treated now but hasn't been anywhere near in 2 runs this year. Cheekpieces might help.

First Post was better than ever when winning 1m handicaps at Ascot and Sandown in 2011. Mostly respectable efforts in defeat this year, though not always looked straightforward. Place claims nonetheless.

Uppercut showed good battling qualities when narrowly getting the job done in a 1m Leicester handicap in October, and shaped encouragingly after 7 months off on AW return last month. Frame claims.

Fantasy Gladiator is arguably better on AW than turf, but mostly performed creditably on both surfaces last year, winning at Nottingham in October. Below par so far this year and others stronger.

Roserrow stepped up on Newmarket debut when landing Lingfield maiden over this trip last month (form franked since) and another good run when length second in Kempton handicap since. May do better still.

Timeform Verdict:
1. Trade Commissioner
2. Shavansky
3. Shamaal Nibras

Timeform View: Trade Commissioner is still open to further improvement and can come out on top in a trappy event. Shavansky and Shamaal Nibras could be the pair to chase him home.

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Carragold enjoyed a productive 2011, and better than ever this year, winning here (8.5f) and in frame on all other starts. Shaped well when fourth to Edmaaj at York last time, and that form franked since.

King of the Celts demonstrated fair form over hurdles during the winter, and shaped as if capable of exploiting a career-low mark in this sphere when third over C&D last time. Outpaced before staying on then, and may need 1½m+ now.

Court Bertoni won handicap at Pontefract off 1 lb higher mark last year and exploited lower AW rating when scoring again in September. Hinted at a revival at Redcar last time, and one to bear in mind now.

Pintrada was successful over 1½m here and at Newmarket last summer, but patchy form in 2012, and folded tamely at Haydock last time. Now dropped in trip, and he's got a bit to prove at present.

Gold Rules was a dual winner for Luca Cumani in 2010, but decidededly in and out since. Possible to excuse both runs this season (went off to hard last time), and no denying he features on a potentially lenient mark.

Iulus looked a good prospect when winning a 9.3f Carlisle maiden last summer. Not gone on since though, including when dropped to selling company at Leicester last time, and eyeshields tried now.

Timeform Verdict:
1. Carragold
2. Gold Rules
3. Court Bertoni

Timeform View: Carragold is the clear pick on current form, and again shaped well when fourth in a big field at York last time. He's hard to oppose here, although support for the well handicapped Gold Rules would look significant, and Mick Easterby's charge is nominated as the chief threat.

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Sir Pedro hails from a proven sprinting family, and landed a 20-runner maiden at Doncaster by 3½ lengths from Iffraam on last month's debut, quickening clear. Handicapper not been harsh, and yard hitting form now.

Jack Who's He won first 2 races as a 2-y-o and not discredited in better company afterwards. Finished well when fourth over 8.3f here on return, but must bounce back from a poor run at Salisbury last time.

Wise Venture won his first 2 starts last year before being found out in pattern company. No impact on return over 1m at Haydock, but possible to make excuses for that, and he's not one to write off just yet.

Heyward Girl made all to win 2 of 4 starts last term, and shaped as if in need of the run on her return in April. Break since suggests there was more to that than a lack of fitness, though, and bit to prove now.

Gung Ho Jack won maiden and nursery at 6f on turf last year, but has been a long way below form on either side of a winter break (gelded in interim), and while capable of bouncing back, not easy to support.

Bella Ophelia made giant strides on fibresand early in year, and showed herself as good on turf when an unlucky second in a soft-ground Newmarket handicap last time. Rarely runs a bad race, and shortlisted.

Duke of Firenze fulfilled promise he'd shown on C&D debut when winning over 6f at Carlisle in August. Shaped as if amiss when last of 12 on reappearance here in April, but likely to prove that form all wrong.

Dishy Guru improved to land 6f handicaps at Lingfield (AW) and Folkestone in the spring, but has lost form as quickly as he found it, and soundly beaten on last 2 starts at this level.

Mister Musicmaster took off in nurseries last season, winning 2 before excellent third at York. Best effort this year when fourth over 5f here in May, and blinkers fitted after a one-paced effort last time.

Marygold is a front runner who won Brighton maiden and Bath nursery at 2 yrs, but hasn't found her form in 3 runs this season. Better signs here (5f) last time, but much more needed to make a breakthrough.

Royal Reyah was a winner of a Bath maiden and Doncaster nursery at 2 yrs and even better when runner-up first 2 starts this term. Missed the break on latest outing, and safe to discount that effort. Not ruled out.

Fast Finian finished in the frame all 4 starts at 2 yrs for Mick Halford, and improved to win a Kempton handicap on debut for new yard with a bit to spare 12 days ago. Raised just 2 lb for that, and one to bear in mind.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Sir Pedro
2. Fast Finian
3. Bella Ophelia

Timeform Verdict: Sir Pedro won well on debut, and has been handed a realistic opening mark, so gets the vote with his yard hitting form. Fast Finian had something in hand when scoring at Kempton and looks a threat, while the consistent Bella Ophelia won't be far away again.

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