TimeformBlog

In part two of the series, Jamie Lynch examines the pick of the older brigade for 2011.


CANFORD CLIFFS Timeform Rating 131
3-y-o Tagula (Ire) - Mrs Marsh (Marju (Ire))
There was talk of the Breeders' Cup, then there was talk of the Far East, but in the end connections decided that Canford Cliffs had done enough for the season and that 2011 would be the year he goes for global domination. A Group 1 hat-trick comprising the Irish Guineas, St James's Palace and Sussex Stakes established him as the best miler of his generation in Europe, beating a top-class older horse in Rip Van Winkle at Goodwood, though even that isn't sufficient to be champion miler in the era of superstar Goldikova. Nevertheless, Canford Cliffs has youth on his side, not to mention a high cruising speed and electric turn of foot, and those qualities will take him far and wide as he shows to the world what we already know he can do. Richard Hannon

REWILDING Timeform Rating 126
3-y-o Tiger Hill (Ire) - Darara (Top Ville)
Will the real Rewilding please stand up. It wasn't quite a case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde, but the Rewilding we saw in the trials wasn't the one we saw in the classics themselves. His prep races for the Derby and St Leger couldn't have gone better, winning both by four lengths, looking a potential worldbeater in the Great Voltigeur, but while Epsom was excusable (uncomfortable on the track when third to Workforce), at Doncaster he was plain disappointing. All the same, the high points were high indeed, and what Rewilding achieved and promised at York is the fuel to fire a 2011 campaign in which he'll get the Group 1 honours his talent deserves, provided there's more of the Jekyll and less of the Hyde. Mahmood Al Zarooni

ALAINMAAR Timeform Rating 121p
4-y-o Johar (USA) - Lady Elgar (Ire) (Sadler's Wells (USA))
Alainmaar hasn't had much luck so far. It's often said that luck is when preparation meets opportunity; well, Alainmaar has long been ready for the big time, only for minor setbacks to restrict his opportunities, but, with even luck and a clear run of racing, 2011 will be his coming-of-age season. He's had only five starts in his life, but winning four of them, and he was all set to take on Harbinger in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot before a bruised foot ruled him out, curtailing his whole campaign. He's unbeaten at a mile and a quarter and untried at a mile and a half, which promises to suit him better still. Michael Jarvis

ASTROPHYSICAL JET Timeform Rating 123
3-y-o Dubawi (Ire) - Common Knowledge (Rainbow Quest (USA))
Explaining why he didn't run her in the Prix de l'Abbaye, Ed McMahon said that Astrophysical Jet had been on the go since day one and that he 'didn't want to bottom her', but he might privately be ruing that decision, as the evidence suggests she would have won. In event, the Group 1 was surprisingly won by Gilt Edge Girl, who had been beaten all ends up by Astrophysical Jet at Newbury just two weeks earlier. That was Astrophysical Jet's third success of a landmark season, beaten in a handicap off 94 in early-summer but ending up the most progressive sprinter in Britain. She might have missed out on a Group 1 in 2010, but she won't do in 2011. Ed McMahon

VERDANT Timeform Rating 114p
3-y-o Singspiel (Ire) - Orford Ness (Selkirk (USA))
Main Aim and Home Affairs hit their Group-race heights as four-year-olds, and now it's the turn of their half-brother Verdant. Likewise trained by Sir Micheal Stoute and owned by Khalid Abdulla, Verdant is a different type in terms of requirements, stamina over speed, but encouragingly he achieved more than either Main Aim or Home Affairs did as a three-year-olds, winning three handicaps and saving his best for last, relishing his first crack at a mile and a half at 'Glorious' Goodwood. That was just the grounding, though, and Verdant will be making a much bigger name for himself next year. Sir Michael Stoute

AFSARE Timeform Rating 114p
3-y-o Dubawi (Ire) - Jumaireyah (Fairy King (USA))
Many of you will be aware of Wigmore Hall's work, winner of the John Smith's Cup before finishing second in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington and a close fifth in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket; basically one of Britain's leading three-year-olds, rated 120 by Timeform. He did all that in the second half of the season, while Afsare was on the sidelines, but he'd twice defeated Wigmore Hall in June. The second occasion was at Royal Ascot, in the fifteen-runner Hampton Court Stakes, and remarkably that was only six weeks after Afsare made his debut. To burst on the scene as he did highlights Afsare's huge potential, protected as he sat out the rest of the year, reportedly on the 'easy list', but he'll be back bigger and better in 2011 with Group races in his sights. Luca Cumani

BATED BREATH Timeform Rating 117p
3-y-o Dansili - Tantina (USA) (Distant View (USA))
If there's another up-and-comer to compete with Astrophysical Jet in the sprint division, then it's Bated Breath. He has some way to go to get into her league, but he's still unexposed in comparison, unraced as a two-year-old and making only five starts in 2010, unstoppable on the first three before the wheels rather came off in higher grade at Newmarket, though there were mitigating circumstances. The ground was on the soft side for one thing, plus his relative inexperience shone through, and his participation in the listed race (in which he still finished fourth) was in doubt due to lameness the night before, nevertheless given his chance, but not seen subsequently. A long break to mature and strengthen should do Bated Breath the world of good. Roger Charlton

FERDOOS Timeform Rating 115p
3-y-o Dansili - Blaze of Colour (Rainbow Quest (USA))
A nose. That was all that prevented Ferdoos maintaining her unbeaten record as she stepped up to listed class for her third start. The nose belonged to Polly's Mark, a hardened campaigner, and their difference in experience was the difference between first and second on the day, Ferdoos shaping like the better horse - by some way - but restricted by greenness, wandering all over when pressured. She'll be all the more street-wise as a four-year-old, and there's a lucrative middle-distance programme for fillies like her; the Lancashire Oaks for one has her name written all over it. Michael Jarvis

HARRIS TWEED Timeform Rating 122
3-y-o Hernando - Frog (Akarad (Fr))
The 'Cup' races in Britain were distributed amongst seven different horses in 2010, telling that the way is open for something to emerge and rule the staying scene. Step forward Harris Tweed. He went from strength to strength this year as his stamina was drawn out, and back-to-back listed wins at Chester (by ten lengths) and Newmarket (by three) in the autumn earned him a Timeform rating of 122 - just 1 lb below St Leger winner Arctic Cosmos. A strong-galloping front runner, seemingly at home on any ground, Harris Tweed still has untapped potential in that he's yet to try two miles, and he'll be hard for the older guard to catch in the Cup events in 2011. William Haggas

FOX HUNT Timeform Rating 108p
3-y-o Dubawi - Kiltubber (Ire) (Sadler's Wells (USA))
It's been Group horses all the way to this point, so how about we finish off with a handicapper to follow, though one who could well develop into a listed or pattern winner in due course. Fox Hunt has very much caught the eye on each start, all at a mile and a quarter, but it will be over a mile and a half and further that he really shows what he can do. After a winning debut (by eight lengths), he was beaten in three handicaps, but doing very well at Chester the final one, when finishing fast and clear with Opera Gal, and that's particularly strong form (third and fourth won next time). Lightly raced, physically imposing and well bred, Fox Hunt has it all ahead of him. Mark Johnston


Read more at http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/

In the first of a two-parter brought to you originally in November, Jamie Lynch brings you the top 10 British-trained classic prospects for 2011.


FRANKEL Timeform Rating 133p
Galileo (Ire) - Kind (Ire) (Danehill (USA))
Who can remember Arazi? Who could forget Arazi? He was the best European two-year-old ever in many people's opinion, rated 135 by Timeform following his mesmerising win in the 1991 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Three years later, though, Celtic Swing topped that (138) with his astounding twelve-length success in the Racing Post Trophy. No youngster has got near those ratings since; no youngster, that is, until Frankel. Named in honour of the late Bobby Frankel, the Hall of Fame trainer who handled most of Prince Khalid Abdulla's horses in America, Frankel is fast developing into a legend in his own right, sweeping everything aside through four unbeaten races, culminating in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. Head and shoulders above the rest of his generation, and with the size and scope to train on well, Frankel could well carry all before him again in 2011, starting with the Guineas. An exuberant sort, more speed than stamina, he may never set foot on the Derby path, but Epsom isn't the be all and end all, and Frankel looks set to be the next big thing; in fact, with a Timeform rating of 133p, he already is the next big thing. Henry Cecil

DREAM AHEAD Timeform Rating 128
Diktat - Land of Dreams (Cadeaux Genereux)
It was supposed to be the best two-year-old race in history, and Dream Ahead was supposed to be one of the main characters, but, as often happens in racing, the blockbuster script wasn't followed. While Frankel took centre stage in the Dewhurst, Dream Ahead fluffed his lines, something not right with him as he trailed in a well-beaten fifth, unrecognisable from the colt who ran away with the Middle Park (by nine lengths) just two weeks earlier. That stunning performance - his second Group 1 success after the Prix Morny - would have made him top dog in most years, and he'll start afresh next season with a big rating behind him and a big plan ahead of him, though avoiding Frankel will help. If Dream Ahead doesn't make a miler, he could still take the sprinting scene by storm. David Simcock

HOORAY Timeform Rating 121
Invincible Spirit (Ire) - Hypnotize (Machiavellian (USA))
In the height of the summer, it didn't look as though Hooray would be amongst the top twenty juvenile fillies, let alone number one, but that's where she proudly sits following her end-of-season transformation. The final leg of her hat-trick came in the Group 1 Cheveley Park, on the same day as Dream Ahead, and she won by a wide margin herself - four-and-a-half lengths - to cement her position at the top of the tree. Hooray has no classic pretensions, as she's a sprinter through and through, but she'll go down as not only the best two-year-old filly of 2010, but also one of the best for many years. Sir Mark Prescott

WOOTTON BASSETT Timeform Rating 119p
Iffraaj - Balladonia (Primo Dominie)
Never look a gift horse in the mouth, they say. When his gift horse arrived, Richard Fahey wasted no time looking at him, instead mapping out an ambitious campaign, and Wootton Bassett was up to the job, completing the perfect season. With five straight wins, Wootton Basset earned over £½m - twice as much as Frankel - as he took an unorthodox route to the top, by-passing the traditional graduation to chase the big pots from sales races, with great reward, but he shone as soon as he got the chance in a Group 1, making all at Longchamp on Arc day. Frankel may be in a league of his own, but there's no knowing how good Wootton Bassett could be, 100% so far, and besides Newmarket there is the Guineas in Ireland and France for him to target. Richard Fahey

SAAMIDD Timeform Rating 115p
Street Cry (Ire) - Aryaamm (Ire) (Galileo (Ire))
Some call it glossophobia, most know it as stage fright, and, whatever the phenomenon, Saamidd seemed to get it worse than Dream Ahead when it came to the big production in the Dewhurst, finishing a detached last. However, to concentrate on one run is to overlook the bigger picture, and Saamidd remains one of the best home-grown Godolphin talents for several years. Nicknamed 'Pegasus' by Dettori, Saamidd went a long way to justifying the hype on his first two starts, winning both easily, latterly the Group 2 Champagne Stakes. The stable's historical slow seasonal starts is off-putting regards the Guineas, but everything about Saamidd - in particular his unfurnished physique - suggests he'll make a much better three-year-old, sure to win top prizes. Saeed bin Suroor

WHITE MOONSTONE Timeform Rating 115p
Dynaformer (USA) - Desert Gold (USA) (Seeking The Gold (USA))
Different horse, same concerns. Kazzia in 2002 was the last time Godolphin won a Guineas, yet the 'winter sun' policy of shipment to Dubai continues, despite the string returning behind schedule year on year. Such a trend is ominous for Saamidd (as well as newer recruits Casamento and Dubai Prince) in the 2000, but it also means White Moonstone is available at 8/1 for the 1000, when on form she should be half those odds. As a two-year-old, she beat everything put in front of her through four races, including the Group 1 Fillies' Mile, which she won despite Dettori feeling she wasn't at her best on the day. Her sire Dynaformer is a strong influence for stamina, so, even if history repeats itself in the spring, there's always Epsom and the Oaks for White Moonstone to realise her classic potential. Saeed bin Suroor

HAVANT Timeform Rating 110p
Halling (USA) - Louella (USA) (El Gran Senor (USA))
Impeccably bred, undefeated in 2010 and recommendable for both the Guineas and Oaks, there are some similarities between White Moonstone and Havant. Admittedly, White Moonstone has the edge on ratings achieved so far, but that's down to opportunity, asked a lot in comparison, and Havant is the one with greater potential. To show as much speed as Havant did in winning twice at seven furlongs - notably the Group 3 Oh So Sharp - is especially encouraging given the stamina in her pedigree, related to Leadership who won at a mile and a half (Group 1) and up-and-coming stayer Tuscan Gold. It's twenty-three years since Sir Michael Stoute last won the Oaks; the wait may be over. Sir Michael Stoute

PETER MARTINS Timeform Rating 109p
Johannesburg (USA) - Pretty Meadow (USA) (Meadowlake (USA))
He may be a chestnut, but, metaphorically speaking, Peter Martins is the darkest of dark horses regards the classic picture. You'd be forgiven for not knowing the name, as, with the emergence of Frankel et al, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since Peter Martins made his one and only appearance in July, but that was arguably the most spectacular debut of the whole season. His reputation preceded him at Newmarket, sent off favourite against previous winners in a novice event, and he stormed away with it by five lengths, achieving an exceptionally high rating for a newcomer, backed up by the time. He was penciled in for various big autumn races, only to be ruled out by minor setbacks, kept under wraps with connections already having an eye on next year, starting with a Guineas trial. Peter Martins: remember the name. Jeremy Noseda

SEA MOON Timeform Rating 92P
Beat Hollow - Eva Luna (USA) (Alleged (USA))
Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them. If any, Sea Moon fits into the first category, as the classics are in his blood. By Derby third Beat Hollow, Sea Moon is closely related to St Leger winner Brian Boru and to Soviet Moon, the dam of Workforce. His credentials aren't only on paper, because Sea Moon has shaped up really well in maidens, green when short headed as favourite at Leicester before getting the job done at Yarmouth two weeks later. After that promising grounding, he's all set to climb the ladder quickly as a three-year-old, with Epsom in his sights. Sir Michael Stoute

MORNING CHARM Timeform Rating 87P
North Light (Ire) - Vignette (USA) (Diesis)
John Gosden knows classic material when he gets it, winning the St Leger twice in the last four years, with Lucarno and Arctic Cosmos. Not only is Morning Charm by the same sire as Arctic Cosmos, but she's also a half-sister to Lucarno, so the omens are immediately good, and on top of that she made a big impression when successful on her sole juvenile start, like Sea Moon earning the Timeform large P. She beat two next-time-out winners at Newmarket, and that merely scratched the surface of her ability, considering her inexperience, while even then seven furlongs would have been on the short side for her, bred to relish middle distances. White Moonstone and Havant had better look over their shoulder next spring. John Gosden


Read more at http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/

Kieran Packman reflects on his personal highlights, lowlights and memorable moments from the racing year 2010.

Individual performance
Harbinger - Ascot, July 24

A scintillating performance. Yes, there was much debate about whether he warranted his Timeform rating of 140, but the history books will record that Harbinger trounced the subsequent Irish Champion Stakes winner, by a mere 11 lengths. His Hardwicke win wasn't bad either, given he smashed up the subsequent Foy, Lancashire Oaks, Princess of Wales's and Irish St Leger winners (and Hong Kong Vase runner-up) by three lengths and six. He'll do for me.


Ride of the Year
Matt Crawley - Lastroseofsummer, Musselburgh, November 19

A more highbrow pundit might have selected a front-running masterclass or a perfect jumping display, but this show of brute strength and determination gets my vote. The fact that he stayed aboard to complete the race would have been worthy of considerable praise, the fact the mare won was ridiculous.


New favourite horse
Dansili Dancer

What, that old handicapper of Clive Cox's? Yes, for purely selfish reasons. He's won three times in three seasons, from a total of nineteen runs. In that time, we've tipped him as a Timeform Jury selection three times. The three occasions he's obliged. Grand stuff. (Unlike Kuanyao, who we've also tipped three times. He did win once, but then proceeded to rattle off a six-timer without a bean of ours on and will probably win next year's Golden Jubilee. Pah.)


Biggest disappointment
Arabian Spirit

We started off the year confidently anticipating this Timeform Betfair Racing Club recruit would be making his mark in races such as the Hunt Cup or the Bunbury. We ended it watching him finish a pretty dismal eighth in a Musselburgh novice hurdle. In fairness, he did gradually improve on the Flat as the season went on and his third at Newmarket in September is very strong handicap form. With another winter for Fahey to quietly work with him, I'm not giving up hope of landing a 'proper' race just yet.


Most memorable ride of a finish on the armchair whilst screaming "FIIINNDDD"
Wigmore Hall - York, July 10

Two-fold this one. The Jury had made a slow start to July and were on a run of ten straight losers prior to selecting Wigmore Hall. As worryingly, half the people I know go to John Smith's Cup day at my local track. I've found the best policy, when inevitably badgered for a tip, is to give them one confident selection and cross everything. Kings Gambit found plenty, but thankfully Martin Lane got serious and the previously tricky Wigmore did just enough. A very rare moment (ever, let alone this year) when it came right for me on the right day.


Race that more neatly encapsulates my 'luck'
Kheley - Southwell, December 10

I had a good bet on Kheley in an evening race at Kempton on 9th December. She finished a close second, one of those things. She was entered the following afternoon at Southwell, but I naively assumed she'd be a non runner after her exertions just hours earlier. Therefore, I confidently dutched Thoughtsofstardom and Mr Funshine and went about my daily business. They finished second and third. Behind Kheley...


Best bet struck
Una Pelota - Wolverhampton, December 17

A recent memory, and still a particularly painful one. 7/1 in the morning about a horse with the best form from a yard churning out winners. Went off 2/1 Fav and cruised round. Then found path completely blocked. In a 5-runner race! Narrowly beats the one bet I had on Derby and Arc hero Workforce (who I'd put up as one of two horses to follow here earlier in the year). That's right, I backed him for the Dante.


Worst bet struck
Roulez Cool - Cheltenham, March 19

Sometimes it's best just to put your hands up and admit you're an idiot. A tough Cheltenham already and encountering a horse some way clear on ratings, we have a crack at Roulez Cool, despite the fact he's already favourite, has been off nearly a year and, above all, it's the Foxhunters. Drifted in the market, never travelled, brought down when beaten. Rubbish bet. (Though typically he did win on his next start).


Most irritating cliché

"They shouldn't call it all-weather should they!". Yes, we know, it's been said thousands of time, but, really, who cares. The concern only of the very dull pedant. We have a lot bigger problems to deal with.


Favourite racing experience without having a bet

Krispy Kreme donuts and coffee for breakfast on the backstretch at Churchill Downs. Highly recommended. Particularly the ones with chocolate sprinkles.


One for 2011

Grands Crus in the World Hurdle. I know taking on Big Buck's has hardly proved a path to riches, but there's considerable mileage in both the place market and the w/o fav market as things stand. The fact his two wins this year came in handicap company seem to have resulted in a lukewarm appraisal of his chance in this grade. Don't believe it, that Haydock win returned a Timeform rating of 160p. He should be clear second favourite overall.


Read more at http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/

Man-of-the-moment Tony McCoy hasn't got much (if anything) left to achieve in a sport he has dominated for over fifteen years, particularly after Don't Push It's memorable win in the Grand National at Aintree back in April.


There is one big-race win still missing from his CV, however, as the Welsh National has proved a source of frustration for the record-breaking champion jockey down the years. A remote fourth place on the ill-fated Eudipe in 1998 is the best that McCoy has managed in eight previous attempts at the Chepstow showpiece, a trail of woe that has included dismal defeats on the short-priced favourites Cyborgo (pulled up in 1997) and Take Control (tailed-off sixth in 2001). Indeed, McCoy has often opted out of a trip across the Severn Bridge in recent years to ride at Kempton or Leopardstown instead, but the chances are he'll be tackling the festive traffic on Monmouthshire roads this time around as Synchronised could well be the horse that finally breaks his Welsh National duck. Synchronised already has a National win to his name, having shown deep reserves of stamina to get the better of former Welsh National heroine L'Aventure in last season's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, in doing so notching up his third win of a highly satisfactory novice chase campaign (he'd also won at Chepstow earlier that term). Hurdles have been back on the agenda for Synchronised so far this term and he's caught the eye on both occasions, notably when a keeping-on sixth to Lush Life at Cheltenham last time. With conditions likely to be very testing should Chepstow survive the wintry weather, Synchronised looks very much the one to beat.

Another National winner from last spring is Bluesea Cracker, who landed the Irish version at Fairyhouse and appeals as one of Synchronised's biggest dangers should she make the trip across the Irish Sea. Bluesea Cracker almost certainly has further big-race wins in her and shaped very well when fourth behind Midnight Chase at Cheltenham last month, particularly as the outing still looked to be just needed that day. The last two winners of the Welsh National, Notre Pere and Dream Alliance, are also likely to be in opposition, but it is harder to make a case for either of that pair on recent evidence. 2009 runner-up Silver By Nature is also difficult to fancy after his uninspiring reappearance display in the Hennessy at Newbury, for all that this race should suit him much better.

Paul Nicholls, of course, always warrants respect in the top chases and he is set to be represented by the novice Watamu Bay, who seems sure to relish the longer trip and has taken well to fences upon joining the yard this term, winning small-field novices at Exeter on his last two starts. However, the handicapper hasn't taken any chances at all with him - a subject Nicholls has touched upon in his Betfair column in recent weeks - and that is probably enough reason to look elsewhere. Dance Island has only had one more run over fences than Watamu Bay and is likely to be popular in the betting on the strength of his second to Burton Port in a Grade 2 novice at Aintree late last season. However, he is another who probably doesn't have too much scope from his current handicap mark, a view which is backed up by his remote second to King Fontaine at Haydock recently. Maktu has also had to settle for the runner-up spot behind King Fontaine at Haydock this autumn, though he pushed that rival much closer and has long been thought of as an ideal Welsh National type by his trainer Pat Murphy (who saddled Supreme Glory to win in 2001).

The lightly-raced pair Comhla Ri Coig and Companero are both open to improvement despite their relatively advanced years, whilst they won't be inconvenienced at all should the mud be flying on December 27th. Their relative lack of experience in races of this nature could be an issue in the jumping department, however.That comment also applies to the Venetia Williams-trained Summery Justice, whose reappearance win at Bangor has been working out very well (both placed horses have won since) but he'd failed to fully convince with his jumping prior to that.

Jumping, of course, is a long-standing issue with Ballyfitz and that is the main reason he is without a win over fences since his novice campaign. That said, he has dropped to a very attractive handicap mark - now 10 lb lower than when fifth in the 2009 renewal - and could be worth chancing at huge odds despite those jumping concerns, particularly as he appeals as one of the stoutest stayers in this field. Indeed, his recent staying-on fourth in the valuable Betfair "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle at Haydock suggests he retains all of his ability. Hills of Aran finished a place behind Ballyfitz that day and is another outsider to consider, even though he cut little ice in the face of a very stiff task back over fences in the Hennessy at Newbury last time. The fact that the Welsh National is unlikely to be run at anything like so strong a pace as the Hennessy should work in Hills of Aran's favour, whilst the step-up in trip is also likely to suit as he's looked increasingly lazy of late and probably needs a thorough test of stamina nowadays.


Read more at http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/

Betting.Betfair blogger Simon Rowlands thinks there is a good way for punters to beat The Big Freeze in Britain.


Dr Johnson, who knew a thing or two about the human condition if not that much about the likely winner of Kempton's King George VI Chase, once wrote "it is commonly observed, that when two Englishmen meet, their first talk is of the weather".

Extend that to the Welsh, Scottish and Irish, and to the female of the species, and it would be difficult to disagree. Not only their first talk, but their last, and much of what goes in between, is likely to be dominated by the subject during this savage winter.

That is particularly true of horseracing punters, who have had a great deal of weather to contend with but not much action. Punters, being punters, are likely to find something to bet on, whatever the weather. Indeed, the weather itself, and its consequences, is proving a popular betting medium.

There are markets on the likelihood of a white Christmas and there are markets on whether racing will go ahead on given dates and at given courses.

At the time of writing, over £25,000 has been matched on Betfair on Kempton's Boxing Day meeting, with "yes" (it will go ahead) at 1.60 and "no" at 2.40. Things look a lot bleaker, however, at Market Rasen, Wetherby (both 1.01 to be off) and Wincanton.

It is worth remembering at these times that racing is a global sport. It may be minus 10 and covered by a foot of snow here, but someone, somewhere, is staging a race meeting in sunnier climes, and you can bet on it.

You don't have to guess either. Timeform has provided free form, comments, odds lines, star ratings and predictions for all races in North America since the beginning of November - 24/7, as they might say - and the results have been most encouraging.

You may think I would say that, given that I have spent much of the last year developing the product, but it is true!

About 28% of all races have been won by the 5-star selection. While these would have returned a loss at starting price, that is after a takeout of between 20% and 25% in most cases. It would have been possible to turn a profit at the majority of courses without that rake having been in place.

That strike rate and profitability is taken over all races. Naturally, the picture is better (or worse) in some circumstances. The following is a brief guide to where there may be an edge at some of the tracks that should be racing - no matter what the weather is like here in Blighty - over the festive period (figures are for 5-star horses and taken over all of 2010):

CALDER RACE COURSE (meeting on December 26) was above average in terms of strike rate and high up in terms of profitability. Indeed, there was a small level stakes profit at starting price for all races at less than 7f and a 34.3% strike rate for all allowance races.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (meeting on December 26) had a win strike rate of 30.2%, which is above average, as are place (52.0%) and show (67.4%) figures. There was a small level stakes profit on all allowance races (113 of them) and on stakes races.

PARX RACING AT PHILADELPHIA (meetings on December 26 and 27) had a win strike rate slightly below average, but the figures were better at distances short of 7f than further. The strike rate with all maiden races climbed to 29.1%.

TURF PARADISE (meetings on December 26, 27 and 28) had below-par strike rates for win, place and show taken overall, but allowance races (90 cases) showed a 32.2% strike rate and a level stakes profit.

If you haven't checked out US and Canadian racing already, then now may be a good time to do so. Most of the same principles apply as apply over here, and there are good opportunities for the disciplined punter. Visit http://www.timeform.com/free/


.....


My congratulations go to Tony McCoy for his runaway success in Sunday's BBC Sports Personality of The Year. There is no doubting the man's professionalism, dedication and talent, and he has been a fine ambassador for the sport of horseracing overall.

The award is unlikely to spark a huge interest in the sport from those untouched by its charms to date, but it certainly should do no harm.

Congratulations should also go to Racing For Change, who staked quite a bit of what remains of their reputation on co-ordinating efforts to get McCoy's achievements recognised. I doubt we would hear the last of it if they had got it wrong.

In the meantime, and somewhat less in the public eye, Lydia Hislop was voted Broadcaster of The Year by contributors to The Racing Forum (Paul Roy predictably trotted up in the Villain of The Year category).

McCoy and Hislop may seem to inhabit different planets - they may even wish that they did! - but racing is fortunate to have them both.


Read more at http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/

Providing the cold snap relents, there promises to be plenty of top-class jumps racing taking place in Ireland over the Festive period, with Leopardstown's Christmas Festival due to stage no less than six Grade 1 contests.


With any luck, the close proximity of last Wednesday's re-re-re-re arranged Fairyhouse card won't have too much of a negative effect on the final entries, and the likes of Zaidpour, Tranquil Sea and Hurricane Fly will all be allowed to have a crack at another Grade 1 victory.

The rescheduled Grade 1 Bord Na Mana With Nature Novice Chase now looks set to be the highlight of the final day of the meeting and we could well see Mikael d'Haguenet bid to quickly make amends for his unlucky defeat in the Drinmore. Willie Mullins' top-class prospect, who will reportedly have an entry for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, looked to be getting on top last week until stumbling on landing after the last (jumped well otherwise), handing the race to Jessies Dream. He will be a warm order to get his chasing career back on track if turned out quickly. One opponent he may face is Punchestown maiden chase winner Noble Prince, who has the potential to take high standing among the novice chasers this season in light of his smart hurdles form and arrives fresh after Paul Nolan chose to swerve the Drinmore. Other interesting entries include the Edward O'Grady-trained Torphichen, who created a good impression when beating Cadspeed in a maiden chase at Clonmel recently, and Loosen My Load, bidding to give Henry De Bromhead a second successive win in the race after Sizing Europe's success last season.

The Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase is the first of two Grade 1s to take place on Monday and looks a three-horse race even at this early stage. Last season's Champion Chase winner Big Zeb will face Golden Silver and Captain Cee Bee as he bids to win the race for the second time in three years. Golden Silver may have won a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse easily last time, but he's come up short against Big Zeb on each occasion the pair have met, including in the Fortria Chase at Navan this term, and there is little reason to think he can turn around that form. Captain Cee Bee took advantage of a straightforward task at Naas in October and, though successful in a Grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown on his final start last season, he still has it all to prove at this level.

The other Grade 1 on Monday's card is the Paddypower.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle and the Royal Bond winner Zaidpour could put his unbeaten record over hurdles on the line. Deeply impressive on both his starts in Ireland so far, Zaidpour is currently as short as 5.2 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and would clearly be the one to beat. If there is a potential fly in the ointment, though, it's John Joseph Hanlon's Hidden Cyclone. Unbeaten in a bumper and two starts over hurdles, Hidden Cyclone was backed as if defeat was out of the question prior to easily winning a Grade 3 novice at Navan last time and remains open to considerable improvement.

The Grade 1 novice chase for stayers takes place on Tuesday and it should prove an exciting renewal if the early entries are anything to go by. The Drinmore could again prove the key to solving this race, with Realt Dubh and Head of The Posse, second and third respectively at Fairyhouse, set to lock horns again. Both could well have more to offer over fences, though the former wouldn't be guaranteed to be suited by the step up to 3m and Head of The Posse was a shade unlucky not to finish ahead of him at Fairyhouse after blundering two out. Another one from the Willie Mullins yard that will be of interest is Quel Esprit. Smart as a novice hurdler last term, Quel Esprit looks set to take similarly high rank amongst this year's novice chasers if his win in a maiden at Limerick is anything to go by, impressing deeply with his sure-footed jumping and merely shaken up to see off the attentions of Torphichen.

The usual suspects take centre stage in the December Hurdle, with Solwhit looking to avenge his defeat at the hands of Hurricane Fly in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse earlier this month. However, with Hurricane Fly likely to prove at least as good back at 2m, and with the benefit of that run under his belt, it's difficult to see how Solwhit can turn around that form.

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Hot on the heels of A. P. McCoy's groundbreaking SPOTY landslide victory, racing's equine 'Star' gets his chance to make history as Kauto bids for an unprecedented fifth King George. Dan Barber asks can he be stopped?


It might be Christmas, but you don't have to be Balthazaar, Melchior or Caspar to work out that any King George discussion must centre around Kauto Star. Come to think of it, you don't even have to be Dennis or Ernie.

In short, Kauto Star has made the King George his own this century. In 2009, he became the first horse in history to win the race for the fourth year in succession, matching Desert Orchid as the only quadruple winner of the Christmas showpiece. A year on, and the seemingly ageless Kauto Star seeks to eclipse racing's most famous front-running grey.

Current odds imply it's a 50-50 call, but it's hard to suggest the likelihood of another success for 'Kauto' isn't more like 60-40, with possibly an even bigger edge in favour of the reigning champion. It's certainly hard to imagine Kauto Star not starting closer to 1.7 than 2.0.

Kauto's detractors might well point to the frailties in the form of his winning return, but it's doubtful there's any validity in such analysis. Granted, a four-length defeat of Sizing Europe wasn't Kauto at his peak, but he still did all that was required and even that form gives him an edge on most of his likely rivals. In addition, Kauto Star hasn't been able (or required) to run to his outstanding best first time back since, probably, 2006.

It's hard to comprehend, but Kauto Star's latest King George success, which staggeringly saw him pull a distance clear of a good field, was better than anything he'd done before and, to give it historical context, represented the best performance ratings-wise by any horse on Timeform figures since all-time National Hunt greats Arkle and Mill House.

One is therefore left wondering if there's any point trying to get him beaten, and I would certainly far rather back than lay him, but the punter within also craves a more exotic approach, which brings us the way of the 'without Kauto' market currently available on Betfair.

Long Run currently heads the betting, but quite why he's around half the price of everything else is hard to fathom. Yes, he was impressive when winning the Feltham here as a novice, but his third in the Paddy Power first time out still leaves him with work to do against some of these and he's no value whatsoever on form. It'd be easy to become tired with the hitherto unjustiied hype surrounding Long Run if it wasn't for the fact he's making the market for others yet again.

Long Run's stablemate Punchestown is possibly the biggest threat to Kauto Star in terms of ability as, without Big Buck's, he'd have dominated the staying hurdle scene two years ago. He also took well to fences initially, too, though it's an undeniably big ask for one so light on experience to handle a test as demanding as this.

Nicky Henderson's third possible representative, Riverside Theatre, hasn't done enough to justify his current price, while Forpadydeplasterer has question marks hanging over his resolution and is unproven at the trip, so better cases on value grounds can be made for Nacarat and Albertas Run.

Nacarat is no Kauto Star, but his own Kempton record is hard to fault; he's been first and second in the last two runnings of the Racing Post Chase, while he shaped second best prior to fading into fourth in last season's King George. Granted less competition for the lead, he's sure to be thereabouts, as is Albertas Run if he can put his reappearance fall behind him. Albertas Run confirmed himself a top-class chaser in winning the Ryanair and the Maghull on his last two starts in 2009/10, and his current price is simply too big considering as well he was runner-up to Kauto Star in the race in 2008.

'Tis the time for celebration, and the time for following a 'Star', and should either Nacarat or Albertas Run do just that, then I for one will have had a Merry Christmas. And no need for any 'wise' cracks.


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It may lack the lustre of Kauto Star and a place in the history books, but it only takes a cursory glance at some of the winners of the Lexus Chase to show that Ireland's Christmas centrepiece is no second-class citizen when it comes to Grade 1 races. Dorans Pride, Beef or Salmon, Best Mate, Denman and Exotic Dancer have all won the event in recent seasons, whilst What A Friend triumphed twelve months ago and bids to retain the title at Leopardstown this year.


What A Friend improved out of all recognition last season, grinding out a hard-fought victory over Money Trix and Joncol here before taking advantage of a below-par showing from Imperial Commander to add the Betfair Bowl at Aintree to his CV. Paul Nicholls' gelding disappointed behind the last-named in the Befair Chase at Haydock on his return, but it would be no surprise at all if he were to bounce back to form here.

The placed horses reoppose, with Joncol perhaps having the best chance of turning the tables. Paul Nolan's gelding confirmed himself one of the best staying chasers in Ireland with victories in the John Durkan and the Hennessy (beat Cooldine a neck) in a lucrative 2009/10 campaign. He was a shade disappointing in the Fortria Chase on his return, though he needs further than two miles and is certain to be seen to much better advantage here provided the ground is testing. Money Trix hasn't stood a great deal of racing in recent seasons, but he's very smart on his day and was only denied by half a length by What A Friend last term. However, he's not been seen since disappointing behind Joncol in the Hennessy six weeks later (reportedly scoped badly) and has a tendency to make the odd mistake.

Cooldine was too free for his own good in this last year and eventually paid for the lack of a recent run, but he's got much better form either side of that effort even if he perhaps hasn't progressed quite as expected since winning the RSA Chase in 2008/9. He was only just touched off by Joncol in last season's Hennessy at this track and ended the campaign with a pair of respectable efforts behind Imperial Commander in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Planet of Sound in the ****ss Gold Cup at Punchestown. Either way, he's not far off the standard that's likely to be required to win this as it is and certainly comes into the reckoning on the back of an encouraging fifth to Tranquil Sea in the John Durkan at Fairyhouse on his reappearance.

A regular visitor to these shores in the last few seasons, The Listener has been well campaigned to win four Grade 1s, including this very race back in 2006/7. He bounced back from a disappointing 2008/9 to run out an easy winner of the JNWine.com Champion Chase in November 2009 and would have to be feared if in that sort of form, but presumably it's the case that he's had a problem not to have been seen since.

It would be reckless to imagine we've seen the best of Pandorama as of yet. Defeated just once in his nine completed starts under Rules, he went unbeaten during his novice chase campaign, when his victories included a short-head defeat of Weapon's Amnesty in the Knight Frank here. Things haven't gone to plan this season, withdrawn on veterinary advice at the start of his intended return and badly hampered early in the Hennessy at Newbury, but it will be no surprise to see him offer a good deal more back on home soil. Pandorama was rated about the same as China Rock as a novice, the latter reaching that level despite managing just the one win. Encouragingly he's improved further this season withgraded successes at Gowran and Punchestown. He couldn't cope with Kauto Star at Down Royal last time, but there's no shame in that, and the bigger concern is that he's yet to fully convince he stays a testing three miles.

Kempes is a Flat-bred gelding who progressed rapidly over fences last season, culminating in a three-length defeat of the aforementioned China Rock in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. Improved again when staying-on third to Golden Silver on seasonal bow at Punchestown, but doubtful this longer trip will serve him as well. Elsewhere, Tranquil Sea and J'Y Vole would both have form claims if turning out again after finishing first and second in the John Durkan, but neither is proven over this trip and Cooldine would be a strong fancy to turn the form around.

In summary, then, Cooldine is selected to put up a far better display than when disappointing twelve months ago and right a wrong by giving Willie Mullins his first win in this race.

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Trainer Willie Mullins saddled three winners on an excellent card at Fairyhouse on Wednesday. Pat Jupp looks back over the pick of the action with an eye on Cheltenham Festival targets.


The first Grade 1 on the card was the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle over two miles, and it produced the most visually taking display of the whole day as Zaidpour (Timeform Rating 150P) hammered his rivals in much the same manner as Dunguib had a year earlier. The subject of sustained market support again, Zaidpour stalked the leader, cruised to the front before the last and quickened clear with his rider virtually motionless to record a twelve-length win over Pineau De Re (138).

The only chink Zaidpour's armour at present appears to be his hurdling, none too fluent at the first two flights and also untidy two out, but he'll be very hard to beat between now and Cheltenham and is fully deserving of his place towards the head of the Supreme Novices' betting (currently 5.8), his form already not that far behind Cue Card 4.0 and himself still open to a deal of improvement.

Half an hour later came the third match up between Hurricane Fly (164+) and Solwhit (162), in the Hatton's Grace over two and a half miles. The former took the score to two-one with a smooth display, challenging on the bridle approaching the last and finding plenty to secure a one-and-a-half length victory. The win cements his position as the main Irish challenger for the Champion hurdle in March, but it's debatable whether this told us anything new about him, as he was clearly the better equipped of the pair to handle the relative test of speed. It's also worth mentioning that Hurricane Fly hasn't been the easiest to keep sound so current odds of 6.8 make limited appeal.

Solwhit is an admirably tough and consistent sort, but his defeat to Hurricane Fly when seemingly having everything in his favour strongly suggests that he would play no more than a supporting role if sent for another crack at the Champion at Cheltenham_it could be that the Aintree Hurdle (which he won in 2009) is a more suitable end-of-season target.

The John Durkan Chase was re-routed from Punchestown and proved an unsatisfactory affair, as the gallop was steady and all bar one were still in contention turning in. Tranquil Sea (160) landed his first Grade 1 success over fences with a workmanlike display, but he was well ridden to beat J'y Vole (156) by three quarters of a length. Whilst it's possible that Tranquil Sea was doing only what was required after bold leaps at the last two fences sealed matters, he still looks plenty short enough for the Ryanair at around 9.2.

The final Grade 1 event on the card was the Drinmore Novice Chase, which saw the return of Mikael d'Haguenet(149p) after nineteen months on the sidelines. It would probably have been a winning return as well had he not crumpled on landing after the last, upsides the eventual winner Jessies Dream (148) and yet to be asked a question. Mikael d'Haguenet developed really well over over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (strong renewal of Baring Bingham, beating Karabak and Diamond Harry) and Punchestown, and his return shows he's suffered no ill-effects from the splint and muscle problems that kept him off the track. His long-term target is hard to pin down at present, so he makes limited appeal from an ante-post perspective, but he will be hard to beat wherever he next appears.

Jessies Dream was probably a fortunate winner but still deserves plenty of credit, as he comfortably saw off a couple of useful sorts in Realt Dubh(143) and Head of The Posse (144+) on just his third completed start over fences. Jessies Dream will remain of interest, with the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day a reported target.

Of the other graded races on the card, Golden Silver (166) set up a rematch with Big Zeb in the Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas after an effortless victory in the Hilly Way Chase, whilst Toner d'Oudairies (118p) followed up his Down Royal success in the opening three-year-old event, beating hurdling debutant Kalann (114p) by two and a half lengths. However, it was a fairly weak juvenile event in the wider scheme and barely caused a ripple in the ante-post betting for the Triumph, Toner d'Oudairies still available to back at 27.0.


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The International Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday was just one of a number of races to cause a shake-up in the betting for the Festival. Timeform share their Perspective entries...


MENORAH put himself firmly on course for the Champion Hurdle and deserves to be favourite on the strength of his two efforts this season, showing a marked advance on his novice form, and although he probably ran no better than in the Greatwood he showed once again how effective he is on this track (this on the New Course rather than the Old, obviously), briefly niggled after three out but responding well and winning the race with a good turn of foot before the last, three lengths up there and ridden to extend his lead on the run-in.

CUE CARD, thrown in at the deep end on just his third start over hurdles, lost his unbeaten record but emerged with plenty of credit, fully confirming the form he showed last time, this still not the limit of his potential as a hurdler, and he will be a serious contender if sent to the Champion Hurdle, alternatively holding an outstanding chance in either the Supreme or the Baring Bingham should connections choose the novice route. He travelled strongly close to the head of the main group and looked to be going best turning in but he couldn't quicken as Menorah swept past before the last, ridden out to hold second in the end. He remains open to improvement granted a stronger gallop and is set to be at least as effective back over further.

SILVINIACO CONTI, conceding weight to all but one of his rivals, ran respectably but didn't seem in quite the same form as at Ascot, this an afterthought in terms of his campaign and perhaps one race too many for the moment, due a break now andcertainly no forlorn hope so far as the Champion Hurdle is concerned, where a truer pace would see him to better advantage as well. He hit the first but recovered from that (jumped soundly thereafter) and raced at the head of the main group, tapped for foot after two out and flat out into the straight but sticking to his task well.

CLERK'S CHOICE clearly hadn't given his running at Haydock and went a long way to confirming the much-improved effort on his win here in race 1860, again travelling strongly and going as well as any two out but unable to pick up so well as the principals in the straight.

CRISTAL BONUS made a very promising British debut, conceding weight to all but one of his rivals, and can build on this effort, looking the part beforehand and travelling well held up, keeping on in taking fashion after two out, never a factor but not unduly knocked about, confirming himself at least a smart hurdler. Effective at up to 19f, he was bought out of Christophe Aubert's stable privately for
€285,000 at the Saint-Cloud November Sale.

ASTRACAD appeared to run a bit above his handicap form but that wasn't a total surprise, given he'd been on the up before his run on soft ground last time, and he's been credited with the effort for now despite the muddling nature of this race, just one paced after two out.

NICENE CREED, on his toes, faced a stiff task and was essentially used as a pacemaker, though not to any purpose, ignored by the field as he raced well clear to the third, left behind only after two out and appearing to run well in form terms but likely to be flattered.


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