TimeformBlog

It's 'double bubble' in Dubai this week and Stephen Molyneux hopes to get the two-day meeting off to a flying start with a trio of selections at Meydan on Thursday...

The best bet of the whole meeting comes in the first (could be a long day) at 14:25 with Psychic Ability taken to account for some exposed sorts. Pyschic Ability proved most progressive in headgear last year, winning three handicaps in total, seeing his mark rise some 19 lb in the process, but that shouldn't be enough to stop him despite only finishing seventh behind Bronze Cannon in a muddling minor event on his return. He was held up in a steadily-run affair and was finishing just about best of all despite being forced very wide off the home turn. Perhaps crucially, the visor is back on today and that can focus his mind enough to get the job done in a race that isn't going to take that much winning.

The feature race on the card is the Al Fahidi Fort at 17:35 and although Raihana will take some beating, a chance is taken on Snaafy who should offer some value against the likely favourite. Snaafy was most progressive in 2009 and carried that on to an extent last year when winning a handicap off a mark of 116. Three of his next five starts all came over 9f, a trip he doesn't stay and the twice he dropped back to 1m he was badly hampered in the Zabeel Mile and won the listed Jebel Ali Mile. That victory came on his latest start, impressively pulling clear of the progressive Atlantic Brave and another big run looks assured from this most likeable sort.

Navajo Chief is the final selection in the 18:10 having shaped very well on his most recent start when second to Win For Sure in what turned out to be a highly competitive handicap. The finish of the race was dominated by those held up, Navajo Chief deserving of plenty of credit in the circumstances given he was prominent throughout, battling on gamely and just failing to hang on. The third, Raihana, has come out and won since so the form looks rock solid and the drop back to 7f is an added bonus given his two wins last season both came at that trip. Swop is a danger having finally been given a chance by the handicapper and it could be worth saving on him should the price allow.

Recommendations
Back Pyschic Ability to win the 14:25 Meydan
Back Snaafy to win the 17:35 Meydan
Back Navajo Chief to win the 18:10 Meydan

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The weights for the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on April 9th were released today, and Timeform have also unveiled who heads their ratings...

Robert Waley-Cohen is rightly chiefly associated with the King George winner and leading Gold Cup hope Long Run, but Timeform reckon he's also got leading chances of bagging a Grand National this spring. Waley-Cohen owns the Martin Lynch-trained Oscar Time in partnership with the former BHB and Liverpool chairman Sir Martin Broughton, and Timeform currently has the ten-year-old at the head of its ratings (178 adjusted) on the day the weights were released for the Aintree showpiece.

Oscar Time hasn't run over fences since chasing home Bluesea Cracker (176 adjusted) in the Irish equivalent at Fairyhouse in April, connections opting instead to preserve his handicap mark by running over hurdles, but the Halifax-based firm take the view that he's still fairly treated as a chaser and relatively unexposed over marathon trips, too.

The two horses currently at the head of the ante-post market, Ballabriggs (173) and Niche Market (173), have also had light campaigns with Aintree in mind. The Donald McCain-trained Ballabriggs has, like Oscar Time, been asked to tackle hurdles so far this season, landing novices at Wincanton and Ayr, but he's long since appealed as a likely type to excel at Aintree and was improving at such a rate last season that further progress can't be ruled out when he's returned to the larger obstacles.

Niche Market is one of ten entries for Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls and, though he didn't make an impact on his first attempt over the National fences last year, he was ridden much more patiently than usual that day and has been kept fresh for the 2011 renewal, not seen since finishing fifth in the Hennessy back in November. Of Nicholls' other entries, both Neptune Collonges (175) and What A Friend (175) have by no means been handicapped out of things despite being set to carry 11-10 and 11-6 respectively.

Grand National Timeform Ratings (Weight adjusted)

178 Oscar Time
177 Silver By Nature
176 Bluesea Cracker
175 From Dawn To Dusk
175 What A Friend
175 Neptune Collonges
175 Notre Pere
174+ Mobaasher
174 Quiscover Fontaine
174 Imsingingtheblues
174 Scotsirish
174 Tranquil Sea
174 Taranis
173 Niche Market

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173 Ballabriggs

Haydock stages one of its flagship jumping days on Saturday, featuring three Grade 2 hurdles as well as the Grand National Trial, in which Silver By Nature bids to repeat last year's success...

The Victor Ludorum gets things underway (13:40), when Local Hero aims to continue his progression up the juvenile hurdling ranks. The Steve Gollings-trained gelding may have appeared only workmanlike in victory at Cheltenham last time, but he responded favourably to AP McCoy's urgings and it will be interesting to see if connections of the second-placed Third Intention take him on again after that horse pulled far too hard early on last time. Smad Place is a huge danger but has to put a disappointing run behind him, whilst Alan King also has Dhaafer, Jalail and Kumbeshwar to choose from. Houblon des Obeaux is the other horse to note after an encouraging British debut, when succumbing only to Marsh Warbler in a Grade 1 at Chepstow.

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (14:10), formerly known as the Prestige, was won by the since-unbeaten novice chaser Wymott last year, and his trainer Donald McCain has the improving pair of Lively Baron and Tornado Bob entered at this stage. However, both will have to continue their rapid progress if they are to challenge the strong-travelling Court In Motion, who has already shown form good enough to win an average renewal of this race and is a high-class prospect indeed. Dangers include Mr Moonshine, who is a fluent jumper and is capable of better still, and Rose of The Moon, who was second to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham but needs to put a desperate run last time firmly behind him.

The Rendlesham Hurdle (14:45) has been won by some very good staying hurdlers in its history and has been a happy hunting ground for French maestro Francois Doumen in recent years, with Baracouda landing the spoils in 2002 before Kasbah Bliss provided two victories (2008 and 2009) in its new home at Haydock Park (moved from Kempton in 2006).

No French challengers this year and, indeed, it doesn't seem there are any horses likely to repeat the feat of winning both this and the World Hurdle in the same year last achieved by the aforementioned Baracouda in 2002. That said, trainer Alan King won this race in 2005 with World Hurdle third Crystal d'Ainay and looks set to saddle Bensalem here.

The fact that the trainer toyed with the idea of sending Bensalem back over fences but has entered him here suggests that he could have the Cheltenham contest firmly on his radar, albeit he will have his work cut out against Big Buck's and Grands Crus.

More immediately, though, he faces the challenge of the admirably-consistent Any Given Day, who finished seven-lengths second to Oscar Whisky over a shorter trip last time, despite being off the bridle early on. Donald McCain's grey is certainly genuine and rates a big danger to all here. The best of the rest could be the somewhat-tricky Ashkazar and the infrequently-raced Sentry Duty.

The Grand National trial has gone through a few incarnations in the past but remains a relevant precursor to the main event, even if the winner of the race isn't always the one to follow at Aintree.

Age doesn't seem to be a boundary, with a couple of 7-y-os and a pair of 11-y-os emerging victorious since 2005. Likewise weight isn't a huge hindrance, with two winners carrying top weight of 11-12 in the past eight years, something which last year's winner Silver By Nature has to deal with this time around.

One of those to shoulder that burden was 2008 winner Miko de Beauchene whose year younger brother Nicto de Beuachene attempts to follow in his footsteps and comes into the race on the back of a sixteen-length defeat of Quattrocento at Sandown. Soft ground is his bag and the same comment applies to the diminutive Le Beau Bai, who is usually a solid jumper and isn't without a chance granted his favoured conditions.

Trainer Kim Bailey knows what it takes to win the race, saddling none other than Master Oats to win in 1994, and he is represented by Sarde this time, who comes into the race unbeaten in handicap chases, but they all might have to give way to West End Rocker if he turns up in the same form he was in when victorious last time.

Alan King's 9-y-o has been let down by his jumping in the past but is doing very little wrong at present. What's more, he beat subsequent winners Cornish Sett and the aforementioned Nicto de Beauchene back in December before scoring again last time, so he looks to hold a very strong chance. His stiffest opposition may come from King Fontaine if he can just eliminate the mistakes he can sometimes make early on.

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The National Hunt season has had more than a stop-start feel to it thus far, with all the abandonments of December rolling into January and then the unfortunate events at Newbury last weekend. Here's hoping that the rearranged meeting at the Berkshire track on Friday and Ascot's big card on Saturday signal the return of the show to the road.

The headline race is the twenty-one furlong Grade 1 Ascot Chase and the bulk of attention will be centred on Riverside Theatre and Pride of Dulcote representing the powerhouse stables of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls respectively. Riverside Theatre has progressed plenty from his novice campaign in two starts at Kempton this season, winning a minor event in November before a fine second to stablemate Long Run in the rearranged King George last month. That looks the most convincing piece of recent form brought to the table here and he must have strong claims of gaining a first Grade 1 success with the shorter trip certainly no invoncenience.

Pride of Dulcote was a smart hurdler who suffered a splint problem after making a winning chasing debut in early-2009/10, but he came back to make it two from two over fences with a narrow defeat of Punchestowns at Newbury over Christmas. He plainly remains with plenty of potential, but this will clearly demand more and, as more of a staying type, the drop back in trip is most unlikely to come as naturally to him as it will Riverisde Theatre.

After a brace of wins in the Peterborough Chase at Newbury and a Grade 3 at Cheltenham, Tartak has to come into the reckoning somewhere along the line, even if it's just for place purposes. He's responded well to the fitting of a tongue strap in getting back to winning ways and these are his conditions. Worthy of respect on that basis, though the suspicion is that he'll always prove vulnerable at the highest level.

Big Fella Thanks was a smart chaser for Paul Nicholls who was fourth in last season's Grand National (stamina seemingly just stretched) and will surely have that race as his target once again. Returned with good second in minor event at Carlisle before falling at the third in Hennessy. This race is sure to be used as a stepping stone to Aintree, so it remains to be seen if he's cherry ripe for the day.

With only Tataniano to look up to amongst last season's crop of novices, French Opera might be considered a leading player. There's just a suspicion that a tough campaign has left a mark of some kind after an uncharacteristically tame reappearance effort at Sandown last month. Clearly he can't be written off wholesale just yet, but it's certainly fair to say the yard appears to hold considerably stronger claims with Riverside Theatre.

Deep Purple won the Charlie Hall and Peterborough Chase last term and ran just as well when third in former race this season. Possibly amiss at Newbury next time and he's got a bit to prove now, something which is true to varying degrees of all of the remainder.

After serving notice that he can play a major role at the top table when runner-up in the King George, it's very difficult to overlook Riverside Theatre in this line-up, the substance to his form all the more appealing than the residual potential of Pride of Dulcote.

Recommendation: Back Riverside Theatre to win the Betfair Ascot Chase

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The most valuable race run this weekend was the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown on Saturday, and it was won by the Willie Mullins-trained Kempes, who travelled and jumped well to beat the ill-fated Glencove Marina by four and a half lengths. Kempes is not yet fully exposed as a staying chaser, and will head to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup (currently an 18.0 shot), but he will need to improve plenty again to get in the mix for a place, and his form as things stand is about 20 lb short of what Imperial Commander ran to when winning the race last year.

There were three further Grade 1 races on the card at Leopardstown on Saturday and there were potential Cheltenham pointers in each one of them. Perhaps the most striking performance came from Jessica Harrington's Oscars Well, who announced himself as the best novice hurdler in Ireland with an impressive success in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle over two and a quarter miles. Oscars Well is now the 7.2 second favourite for the Baring Bingham at the Festival, but his form as things stand is the best on offer in the division, and looks well up to scratch for what is normally required at Cheltenham.

Oscars Well was the second leg of a Grade 1 double on the card for Jessica Harrington, whose Bostons Angel took the Dr P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase. Bostons Angel isn't far off the best staying novices on form now, though he's likely to find a couple too good in the RSA Chase, for which he can be backed at 25.0.

The other Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown was the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, in which Dermot Weld's filly Unaccompanied fully confirmed the promise of her hurdling debut to beat Sailors Warn by three lengths. She is now the 8.0 second favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, and bearing in mind her fillies' allowance, will line up on the day with a major chance, particularly as further progress is on the cards.

In the absence of Newbury, the most interesting race in Britain on Saturday was arguably the Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick. The most interesting contender there was leading Arkle contender Finian's Rainbow, who extended his unbeaten record over fences to three. In the event, the race wasn't particularly competitive and Finian's Rainbow's jumping wasn't as slick as it had been in two previous starts at Newbury, but he still clearly has plenty of potential and will head to the Arkle with a major chance. He currently disputes favouritism in the ante-post market for the race at 5.7, along with Ghizao and Medermit.

Finian's Rainbow's connections were also responsible for the most interesting horse seen out in Britain on Sunday in the shape of novice hurdler Spirit Son, who barely came off the bridle to beat a previous winner by 21 lengths. Only Cue Card is ahead of him in the ante-post market for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Spirit Son available to back at 8.0 for that race.

They also raced at Navan on Sunday, where there were three Grade 2 events on the card. The most interesting of them, at least so far as Cheltenham is concerned, was arguably the three-mile Ten Up Novice Chase, which was won by the Colm Murphy-trained Quito de la Roque. He will be a leading contender for the National Hunt Chase at the Festival (the one to beat if conditions were testing) and is a 10.0 shot for that race, though his form entitles him to take his chance in the RSA Chase if connections so wish (25.0 to back).

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Mike de Kock had been enduring a solid rather than spectacular Carnival until last week, but four winners are a sign that his string have really hit their stride now and Stephen Molyneux expects another couple to do the business for the South African on Thursday...

Atlantic Sport can kick things off in the 14:25 after a highly encouraging start for the yard over trips that don't appear to suit. He always left the impression he was a 7f specialist when in the care of Mick Channon back in 2008/9, both his wins coming over that trip in a minor event at Newbury and listed contest at Sandown. He was then transferred to Peter Schiergen in Germany for his 5-y-o campaign but things didn't really pan out and he subsequently moved to Mike de Kock who has very quickly got him back to his best. Atlantic Sport wasn't disgraced over 6f behind Our Giant on his reappearance, and then he travelled really strongly behind City Style over 1m next time, getting to the front briefly before those exertions told. There should be plenty of pace on here with Evens And Odds and Lipocco amongst others in the line-up, and this looks the perfect opportunity for Atlantic Sport to get back to winning ways.

Hopefully, Mike de Kock won't have to wait too much longer for his next winner with Golden Sword lining up in the 15:40. He is another horse to have recently joined the stable, or in his case, rejoined having had three starts for them early in 2010. He went off the boil subsequently for Jane Chapple-Hyam but he showed that all his old spark remains with a fine second behind City Style on his reappearance over a trip that is arguably short of best. Having said that he did travel with real purpose under a ride that, well let's just say it wasn't Christophe Soumillion's finest hour. Golden Sword was really powering home at the finish and, although it will be pushing it to suggest he retains the sort of ability that saw him finish second in an Irish Derby, he won't need to return to his best off a mark 105 against some thoroughly exposed sorts.

The final selection in the 18:15 is speculative to say the least, as it is more of a hunch that Mac Love is returning to his best rather than any hard evidence on the track. A smart performer in his day, Mac Love's 2010 campaign was a complete write off, and it looked nothing different with a lacklustre return at Meydan. The tapeta surface could have been a reasonable excuse for that flop and he shaped with much more promise despite finishing only sixth behind Derbaas back on turf next time. He travelled with purpose held up yet got no run at a critical time, and to my eye he was coming with a similar run to Here To Win who ended up finishing second. The form has been let down to a degree since and this looks a better race with Irish Flame and Kinsfort in there, both of whom could simply outclass this lot (several racing from miles out of the weights), but Mac Love should be given an each-way chance if going off a double-figure price.

Recommendations:
Back Atlantic Sport to win 14:25 Meydan
Back Golden Sword to win 15:40 Meydan
Back Mac Love win and place 18:15 Meydan

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Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year...

Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in the race and has been responsible for four of the last eleven winners, most recently when Geos took the 2004 renewal. Henderson's gung-ho approach towards the contest is nothing new and the Seven Barrows trainer has three entries at this stage.

The ex-French gelding Solix is the most prominent in the market of Henderson's trio, despite being a tricky one to assess. Capable of smart form over hurdles for Guy Cherel in France, Solix beat Bel la Vie in a Grade 3 hurdle at Auteuil prior to finishing a creditable fourth behind that rival in a Grade 1 contest there in November. He's undoubtedly an interesting recruit for connections, but he hardly looks thrown in from a mark of 152 and better value looks to be had elsewhere.

The most interesting of Henderson's entries, from a betting point of view, anyway, is last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Soldatino. Unbeaten on all three starts as a juvenile, he made an eye-catching return from ten months off when sixth to Tiger O'Toole at Ascot last month, travelling powerfully until the lack of a recent outing told. Soldatino remains open to improvement and appeals as the one most likely to add to his trainer's excellent record here.

Alan King is a trainer very much back on the up and also looks set to go into the race mob-handed, with Walkon, Iolith, Salden Licht and The Betchworth Kid all amongst the five-day entries.

Walkon was a very smart juvenile in 2008/9, runner-up to Zaynar in the Triumph before winning a Grade 1 Hurdle at Aintree, and showed all that old ability was intact when runner-up in that race won by Tiger O'Toole at Ascot. However, he's always shaped as if he'd be ideally suited by two and a half miles, and he may well prove vulnerable to speedier types back at the minimum trip.

Salden Licht is the least exposed of King's quartet and his profile is not all that dissimilar to Manyriverstocross, who finished third in the corresponding event for the same yard last season. Salden Licht was better than ever on the Flat during the autumn and mirrored that progress when returned to hurdles at Exeter on New Year's Day, always travelling powerfully and just nudged out to beat Sir Kezbaah by a length and a half. That form has held up well subsequently and Salden Licht makes more appeal than his shorter-priced stablemate.

Get Me Out of Here took his unbeaten run over hurdles to five when beating Ronaldo des Mottes in the corresponding event last term and met with defeat for the first time when beaten narrowly by Menorah in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham next time. Jonjo O'Neill's representative hasn't been in quite the same form on either start this season, however, pulling too hard when sixth to that same rival in the Greatwood last time, and others look more solid betting propositions for the time being.

Bothy progressed well in novice company last term, winning his first three starts over hurdles, and he took a big step forward on his return when just touched off by Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham (receiving 24 lb). Bothy's latest run in a bumper is probably best ignored, and he's one of the likelier candidates, especially if the ground came up testing.

John Quinn's Recession Proof won two of his three starts in novice company, finding only the very useful Dunraven Strom too strong at Ascot. He also created a good impression when successful in a jumpers' bumper at Southwell in late-December, but it's a big ask to expect him to make an impact at this level from an opening mark of 134.

Final Approach led home a 1-2 for Willie Mullins in this year's renewal of the valuable MCR Hurdle (formerly the Pierse) at Leopardstown. Owned by the managing director of the race sponsor, the well-backed Final Approach quickened up smartly to beat Call the Police by two lengths. Although still unexposed over timber, Final Approach will need to improve plenty if he's to defy a mark 16 lb higher.

Sweet My Lord is another lightly-raced raced performer representing the Mullins yard, and after just three completed outings (fell on two of first three outings) he surely remains open to further improvement. His jumping shouldn't be a problem - if anything it looked an asset when winning easily at Limerick last time - and he certainly deserves to take his chance at this level.

Recommendations: Back Soldatino @ 13.0 and Salden Licht @ 10.0 to win the totesport Trophy at Newbury.

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Binocular (h168) took his tally to two from three for the season but he was far less convincing than he had been in the Christmas Hurdle as he defeated three rivals in the two-mile listed contest at Sandown. The race turned into a virtual exercise gallop for the Champion Hurdler, left with only his stablemate Ruthenoise (h122) to beat from two out, and he needed only to record a bare figure some two stones below his best (139++).

He's certainly best judged on the form of his Kempton success last month and will no doubt be fully tuned up to be back to that level at Cheltenham, though whether you would be rushing out to back him at 4.9 for such a wide-open renewal of the Champion after this display is another matter.

In contrast, his stable-companion Oscar Whisky (h163p) was impressive in landing the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on the same afternoon by eight lengths from Black Jack Blues (h147). He faced a simple task on the day against a quartet of inferior rivals, but not many of the contenders he'll face in the Champion Hurdle have created as visually a striking impression as he has for both his victories this season.

The runner-up had the run of the race thanks to the less forceful tactics employed on Barizan and he ran close to the form that had seen him win a course-and-distance handicap earlier in the campaign. It's also worth pointing out that a time comparison with the earlier two-mile novice won by Sprinter Sacre works out well, especially considering that the pace in this race wasn't as strong as it might have been, with Black Jack Blues getting to the fourth only a second faster than the leader in the novice.

Medermit (c148) now sits towards the head of the Timeform novice chase ratings following his victory in a good renewal of the two-and-a-half mile Grade 1 novice at Sandown. Alan King's seven-year-old showed his best form yet despite idling on the run-in, needing to be ridden out in the end after jumping/travelling well. He holds entries in the Golden Miller and the Ryanair, but is reportedly on course to tackle the Arkle, with the drop back to two miles unlikely to pose him any problems.

Captain Chris (c145) finished runner-up for the third successive start over fences but, with his jumping generally more assured than previously, he demonstrated here that he's nevertheless going to be a serious contender for whichever race he goes for at the Festival. The longer trip of the Golden Miller is likely to benefit him, though the Arkle is apparently the preferred engagement for him at this stage, too.

Mr Gardner (c138p) was quickly stepped up to this level after a facile chasing debut success at Huntingdon and he acquitted himself well in running close to the pick of his hurdles form. He faded after pecking badly two out, whilst a number of those who finished behind him were undone to a greater extent by their jumping.

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In the aftermath of his narrow defeat of Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot in January, Master Minded drifted slightly in the ante-post market for the Champion Chase. However, rather than Master Minded running below form, we have taken the view that Somersby put up the sort of top-class performance that he had long promised at Ascot, and in getting the better of him Master Minded produced his best effort on Timeform ratings since announcing himself as the best two-mile chaser around in the 2008 Champion Chase. That sort of form makes Master Minded the clear one to beat ahead of this season's renewal of the Champion, and the rightful market leader at 3.35.

After some uncertainty as to which race would be his Festival target, Somersby has reportedly been confirmed as on track for the Champion Chase rather than the Ryanair. Whether that is the right move is open to question given how well he usually finishes off his races, but nevertheless the fact of the matter is that Somersby has a top-class performance in a two-mile chase to his name, and a reproduction of his VC Chase effort would obviously result in him being right in the mix in the Champion. In both his previous runs over two miles at Cheltenham (in the 2009/10 Arkle and this season's Tingle Creek) Somersby has got outpaced turning for home before staying on strongly up the Hill, and the likelihood is that a real test at the trip will see him at his very best. Strictly judged on form the 8.6 currently available about him for the race is too big, but the doubts raised by his previous efforts over two miles at Cheltenham temper enthusiasm somewhat.

Big Zeb is the reigning Champion Chaser, and he has built up a very solid profile over the last couple of seasons. He met with something of a bump on his road back to Cheltenham when beaten by Golden Silver in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the end of January, but the market has by no means overreacted to that apparent setback, Big Zeb currently a 4.6 shot for the Champion, having been matched to decent money at a low of 4.0. That lack of significant movement in the market looks justified, as Big Zeb's defeat to Golden Silver represented his best effort of the season on Timeform ratings, and he was only 2 lb below the form he had shown when winning the Champion in 2010. He will head there this time with excellent claims once more, though this year's race will likely take a bit more winning with Master Minded seemingly back to his best and a couple of other pretenders having emerged in the meantime.

Other than Somersby, Woolcombe Folly looks the strongest challenger among last season's novices. Woolcombe Folly won a Grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster on his first start over fences around this time last year, and was swiftly pitched into considerably rougher waters to contest the Arkle on his next start. The Arkle proved too much for Woolcombe Folly as he trailed in last, but the scope remained for him to still do better, and that has emphatically proved the case in two starts this season.

Woolcombe Folly started out 2010/11 with a win off 142 in a two-mile handicap at Ascot in November and built on that the following month when defying a mark of 154 at Cheltenham, in a time that compared very favourably with the one recorded by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Woolcombe Folly's win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role, so there is certainly a case to be made that the 10.0 currently available about him is on the generous side.

Golden Silver put up a career-best effort when lowering Big Zeb's colours in the Tied Cottage, running to the sort of figure that puts him right among the leading form contenders for the Champion Chase, though he does also have the option of the Ryanair at the Festival. The level of his form entitles Golden Silver to be shorter for both those races, though that is mitigated somewhat by his Cheltenham record, poor effort in the the 2009 Arkle and last season's Champion Chase all he has to show from two visits to Prestbury Park.

Captain Cee Bee is the best of those not yet mentioned, but at 12.0 he looks a very poor price on anything he's done over fences to date. He finished a long way behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver when last seen at Leopardstown over Christmas, and has getting on for a stone to find with the form principals.

Sizing Europe looked like he had the potential to make up into a realistic Champion Chase contender when winning last year's Arkle, but he hasn't quite gone on from that run as might have been hoped. He seemed to see three miles when tried over the trip on his first two starts this season, and ran to a similar standard back at two miles last time when third behind Golden Silver and Big Zeb at Punchestown. That suggests he may have reached his limit over fences, and there isn't a compelling reason why he'll reverse that form.

Recommendation: Back Woolcombe Folly @ 10.0 in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

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The Irish Hennessy meeting at Leopardstown is the last stepping stone before the Cheltenham Festival for many leading ante-post fancies from across the Irish Sea and the four Grade 1 events on the card all promise to be high-class renewals.

The defection of Pandorama means that the result of the Hennessy itself is unlikely to have much of an impact on the current Gold Cup market, but the absence of Noel Meade's stable star has made this contest much more interesting from a betting point of view.

Unexposed British raider Pride of Dulcote is the one that has the potential to shake up the Gold Cup betting the most, with many people seeing Paul Nicholls' progressive second-season chaser as a dark horse for the Blue Riband event in March. However, the form of his narrow win over Punchestowns in a graduation chase at Newbury in December took a knock when that rival disappointed at Cheltenham last weekend and he looks to represent little value at current odds given the amount he needs to find with the likes of Joncol and Money Trix.

Last year's winner Joncol bounced right back to his high-class best when third to Pandorama in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and he filled the same place in that race last season before getting the better of Cooldine in a tight finish in this corresponding event. Paul Nolan's runners weren't in much form before the turn of the year, and it wouldn't come as a great surprise to see Joncol turn around form with the runner-up Money Trix and follow up last year's win.

The Deloitte Hurdle promises to be the best novice run in Ireland this season and it will feature the return to action of Zaidpour. Prominent in the market for both the Supreme and Neptune Novice hurdles at the Festival, the useful Flat recruit will be looking to regain the winning habit after being turned over at short odds here over Christmas.

Zaidpour may not have been able to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles, but he did still shape as if the best horse in the race, staying on strongly when eventually asked for maximum effort after the last and beaten only a neck by First Lieutenant. Willie Mullins' representative remains an exciting prospect and should be given another chance to build on the excellent impression he made when running out a facile winner of the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse earlier in the season.

Hidden Universe made up for disappointing in the Champion Bumper at the Festival by going on to win each of his two subsequent starts last season, including a Grade 1 event at Punchestown in April, and made a really encouraging start over hurdles when running out a very easy winner of a maiden at this track over Christmas. The level of form he achieved in bumpers suggests he could prove the biggest threat to Zaidpour.

Willie Mullins is also responsible for the market leader in the DR P .J. Moriarty Novice Chase with Mikael d'Haguenet. Mikael d'Haguenet looked a top-notch prospect over hurdles in 2008/9 before he missed last season through injury, and looked set to beat Jessies Dream before falling at the last in the Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse in December. He was sent off a hot favourite at Leopardstown next time, but, perhaps understandably given the absence that preceded it, seemed not to be over his Fairyhouse exertions fifteen days previously. He's been given a break since, but still doesn't look a solid betting proposition for the time being, especially at odds-on.

The other that deserves a mention is the Dessie Hughes-trained Magnanimity. Last seen when lowering the colours of Jessies Dream in the Grade 2 Killiney Novice Chase at Leopardstown, Magnanimity benefitted from a sound tactical ride that day and showed a really likeable attitude to repel the challenge of Gordon Elliott's charge close home. Magnanimity remains open to improvement over fences, but this drop back in trip is unlikely to play to his strengths and he will be of more interest.

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