TimeformBlog

Our blogger Simon Rowlands the aftermath of Saturday's controversial race...

Saturday's Grand National is likely to be remembered by many who watched it not for the positive reasons that racing might wish but for the sight of the runners being waved round two horses - one dead under a tarpaulin, the other about to be despatched - and for the winner Ballabriggs seeming to be close to collapse at the end of the gruelling four-and-a-half mile race.

The hugely critical response from some sections of the public and non-racing press was only to be expected and needs to be taken seriously. Racing cannot expect to exist in isolation from the attitudes of wider society. No pastime can.

What took me much more by surprise were the responses of some within racing itself. These ranged from hysterical attempts of baffling illogicality to "put the animal-rights nutters straight" to sitting on one's hands and pretending nothing had happened.

The Racing Post tended towards the latter stance on the day after the race, helping to fuel the impression that racing was in denial, though it did rectify that somewhat subsequently.

Even more notable by their absence were the British Horseracing Authority, who seemed totally unprepared for the media firestorm. Instead, it was left in the first place to the likes of John McCririck and Brough Scott - both old-schoolers lacking in credibility - to "put racing's case" and effectively to pour further fuel on the fire.

Horseracing sometimes seems to be incapable of seeing itself as others see it or of responding to criticism other than by dismissing it as "ill-informed nonsense from do-gooders."

Contrary to what McCririck stated, all possible steps have not been taken to make the Grand National safer. A reduction in field size to something like 25 runners would belikely to lead to a reduction in non-completion percentages (about five times those for normal chases) and fatalities without taking much away from the spectacle.

A reduction in early speed through a shorter run to the first and a guarantee of slower ground early on might well do likewise. There is also the option of making some of the fences, which are still formidable, easier.

You do not need to be a "do-gooder" from without, or an apostate from within, to think that racing needs to avoid a repeat of Saturday's events - and the unsatisfactory response to them - or it is likely to pay the consequences of falling out of line with public opinion.

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Don't Push It enjoyed his finest hour when winning the 2010 renewal of this race and his four runs over hurdles this year will have put him spot on for a repeat bid. However, no horse since Red Rum in 1974 has won back-to-back Grand Nationals and he also has to carry top-weight.

Tidal Bay certainly has his quirks but is a high-class chaser on his day, finishing runner-up in the Betfair and Argento Chases before a good sixth in the Gold Cup last time. However, it remains to be seen whether he takes to such a unique challenge as the National.

What A Friend, a dual Grade 1 winner in 2009/2010, was fourth in the Gold Cup last time, where he was equipped with first-time blinkers. Well handicapped here on that form, he's the class act in this, especially if encountering his favoured good ground, but is far from straightforward.

Vic Venturi, winner of the 2009 Becher Chase despite looking far from assured over these fences, fell at the 20th when in mid-division in last year's National. He's been largely below his best this term and has a lot to prove now.

Majestic Concorde produced a career-best when a 33-1 winner of the valuable Paddy Power Chase as Leopardstown in December, but it remains to be seen whether he stays this marathon trip and others appear better handicapped.

Or Noir de Somoza boasts an impressive winning record in his native France and has rejoined David Pipe with this race in mind. However, his best form has been achieved at short of 3m and his staying this distance has to be a big worry.

Dooneys Gate jumped boldly when fourth in the 2010 Topham and produced a career-best when winning at Clonmel in February. That said, he has raced largely around 2½m and the trip poses the largest question here.

Big Fella Thanks has no trouble with these fences after finishing fourth and sixth in the last two renewals when with Paul Nicholls. A very encouraging display last time proves he's in good form but the question remains as to whether he truly stays the trip.

The Tother One is relatively lightly raced for one his age but looks an increasingly hard ride these days and made mistakes when fourth in the Hennessy at Newbury on his penultimate start. Although he's likely to stay the distance, doubts over his current mindset means he's easy to oppose.

Ballabriggs won all 3 of his chase starts last season, including the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, and began with 2 novice hurdle victories this time around. Despite being caught close home by Skippers Brig back over fences at Kelso last time, he's a strong traveller and sound jumper and has to be considered.

The Midnight Club is a progressive chaser who was runner-up in the Thyestes on his return before beating several who reoppose here in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse in February. Despite having only won twice over fences, he certainly looks the type to excel at Aintree and is highly respected.

Niche Market, winner of the Irish National in 2009, was no threat in this race last year but has long looked an ideal Aintree type and had a breathing operation prior to running adequately on his latest start. He looks Paul Nicholls' best hope of finally winning the race.

Silver By Nature goes from strength to strength and put up a career-best when winning the National Trial at Haydock in February for the second consecutive season. He gets into the race on a very favourable handicap mark and ticks the right boxes as a sound-jumping front-runner, but the softer the ground the better his chance.

Backstage was still going well in this race last year when effectively brought down at the 20th and has been given an unusual preparation this year by winning his last two starts on the point-to-point circuit. However, the biggest question for him is whether he'll fully stay the distance.
Chief Dan George, winner of a competitive handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last year, hasn't looked in the same form this season and took a heavy fall when attempting to repeat the feat last month. The trip looks within his compass but reliability has never been his strong point.

Calgary Bay is a sound jumper who has largely performed with credit since winning a handicap at Doncaster in 2009. However, although he has a decent chance of navigating the fences, his ability to see out the trip is a big worry.

Killyglen was one of the leading novices of 2008/9 for Howard Johnson but his form has been very patchy since. That said, some encouragement can be gleaned from his 2 runs over hurdles this season and he shaped better than the result suggests when returned to chasing last time.

Oscar Time progressed well last season, winning a valuable 3m handicap before finishing second in the Irish National. A strong traveller, he shaped well back over fences behind The Midnight Club last time and must be considered.

Quinz improved a good deal to land the Racing Post Chase at Kempton in February and is the pick of the weights for this race. However, though he jumped much better than previously last time, his relative inexperience for such demanding race must be a worry.

Becauseicouldntsee was a progressive novice last term, culminating in a fine second in the 4m amateur riders' event at Cheltenham. Still lightly raced, he upped his game again when runner-up in a highly competitive handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas, and despite his tendency to jump left, must make.

Comply Or Die is a fine jumper who won the 2008 National and was beaten only by Mon Mome 12 months later. He hasn't been the same force since, however, fading into twelfth in latest running of the race and now firmly into the veteran stage.

Quolibet had a poor strike rate for one of his ability when trained in France, and showed little in the cross-country race at Cheltenham on his British debut last month. Consequently, he's hard to make a case for, especially given doubts over the trip.

Grand Slam Hero's form took off over fences on rejoining his present yard last year, winning the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and valuable event at Ffos Las, but his lacklustre effort after a break last time doesn't bode well.

State Of Play is a genuine sort who has been laid out for this having reached the frame in the last 2 renewals, coming from some way back to take third in 2010. He reopposes Don't Push It and Big Fella Thanks on much better terms and will understandably be on many a shortlist.

King Fontaine was progressive over fences last year, winning 4 on the trot, but his jumping has been a problem in more competitive races recently and that's a huge concern faced with this test.

In Compliance unseated last time but usually jumps well and was revitalised by the fitting of blinkers when making all at Thurles in February. However, that was only over 2¼m, and 3m has looked the limit of his stamina in the past.

Hello Bud is a bold-jumping front runner who's done well over the National fences in the past, including when rallying gamely to land the Becher Chase in 2010. However, he appeared very tired when fifth to Don't Push It last year and has to prove he truly stays the distance.

West End Rocker improved like so many from his yard earlier in season, winning good handicaps at Newbury and Warwick. That said, despite shaping as though still in form last time, he stopped quickly and his jumping hasn't always been fluent.

Santa's Son was quickly back on track after rejoining his present yard, landing a 2½m Musselburgh handicap hurdle in February. However, his jumping has let him down over fences and his stamina is also likely to fail him here.

Bluesea Cracker improved further over fences last season, winning the Irish National at Fairyhouse from Oscar Time. She's had another light campaign this time and has a lot going for her, though her chance would be greatly enhanced by rain.

That's Rhythm won a 3m handicap with some comfort in August, where the fitting of a visor seemed to do trick. However, he can't be relied upon from a jumping or attitude point of view, and hardly appears the sort to excel here.

Surface To Air came into his own over fences in 2008, completing a hat-trick when landing the Summer National at Uttoxeter. Quickly weakened over hurdles on his reappearance last month, and it would be a big surprise if he was good enough to figure.

Piraya, whose only win in Britain came over 2½m at Warwick over a year ago, was back to that level when placed on his first 2 starts this season, but has lost his way sinceTailed off in this last year and a similar fate awaits.

Can't Buy Time showed improved form when winning a 21f chase at Cheltenham in January 2010, but has not matched that form since. He's twice failed to complete in the National and seems unlikely to be involved once again.

Character Building, a Cheltenham Festival winner in 2009, was placed when back down the weights in a veterans event here in October, but has generally struggled since. Seventh in the race last year, he will do well to improve upon that.

Ornais was one of the better novice chasers in 2007/8, but injury had kept him off the track for 2 years until his reappearance in a hunter in February. He's going to find this much tougher and looks out of his depth.

Arbor Supreme is a hold-up horse without a win since 2008. However, he put up a career best when second to The Midnight Club last time and certainly has claims of bettering last year's effort when unseating at the Chair.

Royal Rosa hasn't won for over 4 years and is largely inconsistent to boot. Retried in headgear, he did produce one of his better efforts when placed in 2010 Becher Chase for the second successive year, but ran a shocker on his only outing since.

Skippers Brig was a progressive chaser in 2009/10, culminating in a third to Poquelin here on his final start. He looked better than ever after a year off when beating Ballabriggs at Kelso last month and needs consideration, although rain would enhance his chance.

Golden Kite has been better than ever this term, mixing hurdling with winning over fences at Kilbeggan and Limerick (Munster National). He is not without a chance off a very low weight.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. The Midnight Club
2. Oscar Time
3. Niche Market

Timeform View: Irish-trained horses have won half of the last dozen runnings of the National and it's not hard to see them taking the prize home again this year, with the Bobbyjo Chase first and third The Midnight Club and Oscar Time making the most appeal. Niche Market has long looked the type to go well in the race, while In Compliance isn't sure to stay but could out-run his odds.

For more Grand National articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/grand-national/

Kieran Packman gives us his unique take on the National betting

The National winner - Oscar Time. Irish National form. Reliable jumper. Jockey with good record over National fences. Favourable Timeform rating. At the 'right' end of the weights. Irish trainer I've never heard of. All positives. Stamina is his potential Achilles heel, but I'm inclined to think his fading finish last time out was attributable to fitness as this was always going to be the focus.

A Lively Long Shot - Becauseicouldntsee. Still relatively unexposed and, like many of the Irish contingent, has intentionally been lightly-raced with this race in mind this season. His second in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010 proved both his stamina, his ability to show his form on good ground and showcased his potential for a race of this calibre. 25/1+ underestimates his credentials.

A Horse To Place - Don't Push It. Looked far from an obvious type for the National fences 12 months ago, then went and won anyway. I think the fairly comfortable nature of his win has been overlooked, not least by the official handicapper, and he'll be in the frame if he turns up in the same heart.

A Poor Favourite - Backstage. Gordon Elliott is a superb trainer and for that reason this horse has to be considered. But I think nearly every horse in the National would have won the point-to-point this lad did recently and yet he shortened in the market. It is highly dubious whether he'll see out this trip. Second favourite as I write despite not having shown solid form for nigh-on two years. Not for me.

A Place Lay - Tidal Bay. 'Mercurial', 'enigmatic', 'a conundrum'. All of these are likely to be used this week to describe Tidal Bay. 'A right dog' is probably that which will resonate with most punters. Clearly has the ability to play a part if he's inclined to, but far more likely to turn his nose up at the first.

For more Grand National articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/grand-national/

14:00 - In his eleven straight wins over hurdles the otherwise imperious Big Buck's has never been as unimpressive as when defeating Souffleur and the reopposing Possol in this race twelve months ago. Whether that warrants opposing him is another matter altogether, however, and it's impossible to envisage a scenario that sees him finishing outside of the first three.

14:30 - Zarkandar is sure to be another Nicholls-trained hotpot in the juvenile which follows, and we have to ask ourselves the same question. Grandouet ran very well to finish third to Zarkandar in the Triumph at Cheltenham and, though it's a slight niggle that he might have endured a harder race there than some of those to finish around him having been up there from the outset, he's taken alongside Zarkandar to get us through. The only reason for not singling Zarkandar is that, after just two lifetime starts, he hasn't had the opportunity to prove himself as reliable as Big Buck's!

15:05 - I'm backing Denman to win the totesport Bowl outright, so it would be disingenuous of me to field against him here. I think an odds-against price represents plenty of value about a horse so far clear of his rivals in form terms and is only available because of concerns about him giving his running three weeks on from Cheltenham. That said, I think he would have won this race two years ago but for falling in the straight, whereas twelve months ago he was patently unsuited by the demands of right-handed Punchestown. He's only had two starts this season to date and it goes completely against the grain to imagine some wholly unconvincing rivals can upset him today.

15:40 - We're fortunate to have had the opportunity to keep lines low to date, because we're going to have to go mob-handed into the Fox Hunters'. Baby Run is the best of these and would have most likely made it back-to-back wins in the big one at Cheltenham but for jolting away Will Twiston-Davis two out. He does have a tendency for mistakes, something which cost him in this race last season, but he'd taken well to the test before that and will surely be involved in the finish if getting round. Beyond him, we're siding with last year's first and second Silver Adonis and Moncadou, Heron's Well and Kilty Storm.

16:15 - Leo's Lucky Star is probably the best starting-off point after his good run at Cheltenham and, fresher than most, looks sure to be on the premises. Woolcombe Folly is still very much respected on his fine previous form, but after running so poorly in the Champion Chase last month he's not one for our purposes. Instead, I'm Delilah makes more appeal after her return to form at Doncaster five weeks ago. She remains reasonably treated and is sure to give it a good go from the front.

16:50 - Beaten favourites at Cheltenham, Wishfull Thinking and Medermit arrive at Aintree looking for compensation. The pair face something of an unknown quantity in the shape of Royal Charm, but it would be a major surprise if at least one failed to finish in the first two, the former with the better form, the latter sure to be suited by the extra half mile.

Selections:

40 lines

14:00: 1
14:30: 1,10
15:05: 2
15:40: 1,10,14,18,21
16:15: 6,8
16:50: 5,6

For more Grand National articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/grand-national/

Timeform Radio's Rory Delargy picks through the National odds to name his best bets for Saturday's race . . .

The National Winner - Big Fella Thanks has been called a non-stayer after finishing sixth and fourth in last two Nationals, but he's only now reaching full maturity and stamina is not the fixed bar that some believe. Jockey Graham Lee has a decent record, and he looks a huge player.

A Lively Long Shot - Calgary Bay is an enigma, but one with abundant class and who has never fallen. Will either love this or drop the lot early, but is definitely too big at 50.0.

A Horse to Place - State of Play has made the frame in the last two renewals, and Evan Williams has always had the bold plan to come here without a run with this best-fresh type. He's lightly raced for an 11-y-o, and should be as good as ever come the big day.

A Poor Favourite - Don't Push It. The very fact that Tony McCoy will be aboard last year's winner is bound to mean he goes off short for a repeat bid, but he's lumbered with top weight in this year's race and that alone makes his task virtually impossible - he's no Red Rum, after all, is he?

A Place Lay - Ballabriggs. His best performance over fences came when winning the Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir last year, but that is essentially a second division contest and he was all out over the 25f trip there - he simply won't get home in this company.

For more Grand National articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/grand-national/

This little article was going to begin with an all-out attack on the Racing For Change mob and their preoccupation with needlessly restructuring the end of the Flat season, when the start of it still limps in so pathetically - it would be difficult enough for Doncaster's voice to be heard above Cheltenham and Aintree, so what chance has Catterick got; but then I realised that, at the same time I was formulating this high-and-mighty, paper-thin rant, I was trying to get a bet matched on the seller at Wolverhampton.

The truth is that for me and the vast majority of people who use and peruse Betfair, as well as most who enjoy the sport, there's not much wrong with racing as things are. Opportunities are easily lost while focusing on the negatives. Racing isn't in crisis. Japan and Libya are in crisis. Yes, racing has its problems and issues, but no more so than any and every other industry in the current climate. Like all sports, racing has quietly changed over the decades and will continue to do so in order to adapt to whatever circumstances and difficulties present themselves at any given time, but if an official body - like we now have - is to lead the way then surely it needs to start at the bottom rather than the top as has happened so far with the British Champions' Day palaver.

Anyway, the point of this piece isn't so I could vent this teeny-weeny spleen, but to seize one of the bigger and better opportunities that Flat racing has to offer, namely the Lincoln Handicap. Thinking about it, we actually don't need a fanfare, fireworks and Fake That live in concert for a grand opening of the Flat season do we? The Lincoln itself is enough of an announcement, as it has always been, and there's nothing like a big-race bet to get the adrenaline pumping, so let's find one...or two.

Here's some valuable information, completely free and gratis: Taqleed is one of our Horses To Follow (if you haven't already, get your copy now - all 136 pages of it - at www.timeform.com). We have to be honest and say he wasn't really included with the Lincoln in mind, as we thought he had bigger fish to fry, and that will hopefully still be the case, but John Gosden never passes up an opportunity to bag a valuable handicap and here is Taqleed, high on positives but low on value now, the price gone.

You'd need a second and third and fourth opinion before trusting this particular Doc, but Docofthebay has a much better form chance than his odds suggest, even factoring in his foibles. In fairness, Docofthebay has turned the new leaf at least three-quarters of the way over in the few months he's been with Dandy Nicholls, and his latest second in a Wolverhampton listed race puts him ahead of the game, 6 lb 'well in' officially. The reason Docofthebay is trading at 27.0 is because of the Docofthebay of old, but at those odds it's worth a punt that we're dealing with a new and improved Docofthebay, and don't forget that he was once runner-up in a Hunt Cup, likewise a straight mile.

At this stage, it's touch and go whether Gunner Lindley and Eton Forever, who both have plenty going for them, will make the cut. In fact it looks as if, bar Taqleed, there will be hardly any up-and-comers in the final twenty-two, and therefore a solid profile with a 'been there and done that' badge is more attractive than might ordinarily be the case in a big handicap. Step forward Prime Exhibit. Runner up in the Lincoln twelve months ago, Prime Exhibit looks better still coming into the race this time around judged on his reappearance third - just behind Lowther and Tartan Gigha - in the trial at Wolverhampton, when unlucky not to win. Paul Hanagan is set to ride Irish Heartbeat, who could be more a sprinter than a miler these days, but the bonus for Prime Exhibit is that Lee Topliss takes 5 lb off, and he's excellent value for it.

Apologies for hijacking what was supposed to be a simple tipping article to get on my high horse, and it's not very high before vertigo kicks in where my appreciation of racing politics is concerned, but it does matter to me (and to all of us) what's happening and, moreover, what will happen. It's not a case of 'if it's not broke then don't fix it,' because there are areas in which racing is broke - literally and metaphorically - and does need fixing, but, honourable though the Racing For Change ideology is, the worry is that they are going about things the wrong way by revamping Premier League races which frankly didn't need revamping. The programme book is okay as it was, as we'll discover this untouched weekend, and, in the wider scheme, it's insignificant if a few would-be snobs like me think that, to kick off the Flat season, it would be better if Catterick, Leicester and Musselburgh came after Doncaster and not before. The point to celebrate is that we have a Catterick, Leicester, Musselburgh and Doncaster and we have a race rich in heritage like the Lincoln, and therein lies the true beauty of British racing: its depth and variation, and the vast opportunities provided. Whether or not Docofthebay or Prime Exhibit do the business on Saturday, they'll have plenty more opportunities through the season, and so will you.

Recommendations

Back Docofthebay @ 27.0
Back Prime Exhibit @ 12.0

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This year's Flat season is already underway in Ireland and, attempting to get a head start, we'll try to identify the trainers to follow and those to avoid in the coming weeks.

Two wins from just three runners so far means Tommy Stack is well on course to replicate last year's 50% strike rate in March. That strong early-season form has hardly slipped under the radar this term, especially from a betting point of view, and for the purposes of this article, we'll try to overlook the obvious and pick out some yards that punters perhaps haven't latched onto just yet.

Mick Halford is a trainer back on the up if an excellent season in 2010 is anything to go by, the Group 1 success of Casamento playing no small part in a stellar campaign, and early signs suggest that the County Kildare handler will again be one to follow in March. A 30% strike rate led to level-stakes profit of €180 to a €10 stake for this month last year, and the yard have already had two winners from just seven runners this time around. Halford has done particularly well in the early meetings at Dundalk, with all three of his winners last March coming on the all-weather.

Jessie Harrington may still be better known for her training exploits over jumps, but she's also developing an increasingly strong string on the Flat and is very much one to follow in 2011, especially in the early months. Harrington boasted an excellent first-time-out strike rate of 20% across all age groups in 2010, resulting in a healthy level-stakes profit, and five winners from only twenty-one runners meant April was her most profitable month last term. Two seconds from three runners this month confirm Harrington as a trainer to keep on side in the coming weeks.

It may seem odd to include a trainer that had just the three winners during March and April combined last term, but we're confident that Ger Lyons can turn things around this season. Although he's yet to have a winner this year either, early indications are that his yard is in good order, several of his representative running well at big prices and Bible Black a very unlucky loser at Dundalk on Friday evening. By his own admission, a newly laid pro-cushion gallop wasn't the success Lyons expected it to be, and a return to the woodchip surface that had been in place when the yard enjoyed so much success could well to bring about an upturn in fortunes, especially given that a substandard 2010 campaign means the trainer potentially has a whole host of well-handicapped horses on his hands.

One trainer worth opposing early on in the season is David Wachman. The yard's patient approach means the time to follow Wachman's string is during the summer (18 winners in May/June last year), and he had just the two winners from thirty-nine runners during March and April of last term. It's also worth pointing out the yard's juveniles improve markedly for their initial experience, just 3% obliging first-time-out in 2010.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

Fly Down is a regular in the top events in America, but his only victories last year came in an allowance race and a Grade 2. He was a good third to Blame in the Breeders' Cup Classic but was a touch disappointing last time.

Monterosso was really progressive for Mark Johnston last year, winning five times in total, and carried that on when taking the Dubai City of Gold last time. He faces a much stiffer task down in trip now.

Prince Bishop was lightly raced in France for Andre Fabre, but really improved in the second half of last season, winning his last four starts. He was put in his place by Twice Over last time though and is unlikely to be good enough.

Cape Blanco was one of the best three-year-olds in training last year, winning the Irish Derby and Irish Champion, posting his best effort when slamming Rip Van Winkle in the latter. He was well held in the Arc on his final outings last season, but still commands respect.

Gio Ponti was only once out of the first two last year, and that came when fourth in this corresponding event. He was as good as ever when second to Goldikova last time and is very much respected.

Victoire Pisa is closely matched with Buena Vista having beaten that one by a nose in a Group 1 in December. He did get first run on that occasion, however, and probably has his work cut out to confirm the form.

Musir was a Grade 1 winner in South Africa and won all three of his starts with authority at Meydan last year, including the UAE Derby. He has finished runner-up both starts this year, including behind Twice Over.

Gitano Hernando progressed well in 2009, and proved just as good last year in winning a couple of races at Lingfield and Dundalk. He has not been in top form this time around, and this a better renewal than the one in which he finished sixth last year.

Transcend has a good strike rate and can list the Japan Cup Dirt among his wins last year. He made all for a winning reappearance in another Group 1 but will need to improve again to take this.

Poet's Voice was much improved towards the end of last season, winning the Celebration Mile at Goodwood and the QEII at Ascot. He is settling much better now he is held up but still has stamina concerns at this trip.

Richard's Kid failed to make an impact in the Dubai World Cup last year, but did win twice in US afterwards, the form of his latest win working out well. He left Bob Baffert prior to running poorly here on his reappearance.

Twice Over was better than ever last year, winning the Eclipse at Sandown and Champion Stakes (for second successive year) at Newmarket. He won impressively at Meydan on his return and is a worthy favourite for this.

Buena Vista is yet to finish out of the first three throughout her career, including when second in the Sheema Classic last year. She was first past the post in the Japan Cup after and looks a leading candidate.

Golden Sword was a very smart three-year-old for Aidan O'Brien, and has got back to that sort of form when winning his last two at Meydan with plenty in hand. New tactics (held up) seem the key to his revival and he must have every chance.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Golden Sword
2.    Buena Vista
3.    Twice Over

Timeform View: A high-quality renewal of the world's richest race and it looks far more open than the betting would indicate. Twice Over is a worthy favourite but he is worth opposing with Golden Sword who has really taken off at Meydan this year and could still have more to offer. Buena Vista makes plenty of each-way appeal given her record of never finishing out of the first three.

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The world's richest photo took place 12 months ago, Gloria de Campeao's nose earning him the lion's share of $10,000,000, and it will come as no surprise were we to see another close finish in this year's Dubai World Cup such is the quality on show. Stephen Molyneux tries to identify some value against worthy favourite Twice Over.

It's worth starting with Twice Over, as he clearly deserves his position at the head of the market, even before the late withdrawal of Bold Silvano. Although not beaten far in this race 12 months ago, he was disappointing, never seeming himself both beforehand (got worked up) and in the race itself, and that presumably prompted connections to get him to Dubai earlier and give him a prep-race in the third round of the Maktoum Challenge. It was a most pleasing return, easily disposing of the race-fit pair, Musir and Gitano Hernando in a performance that suggests he could even be better than ever this year. He may need to be in what looks an above-average renewal, but he ticks plenty of the right boxes and it's not hard to imagine him being on the scene.

Mike de Kock will naturally be disappointed at the late defection of Bold Silvano, but every cloud has a silver lining as they say and his place in the line-up has gone to stablemate, Golden Sword. Stable jockey, Christophe Soumillon, has opted to ride Musir, but that doesn't detract from the claims of Golden Sword who has been a revelation since switched to tapeta and patient tactics at the Carnival this year. He should really be three out of three in that period, unlucky not to have won on his reappearance before making amends in style on his next two outings, firstly in a handicap off a mark of 105 then comfortably getting the better of Deem in a minor event more recently - it's worth remembering that Deem went close in the Dubai Sheema Classic last year so the form is very solid. Golden Sword always had plenty of class, trained by Aidan O'Brien to finish fifth to Sea The Stars in the Derby and second to Fame And Glory in the Irish equivalent in 2009, and although this is clearly his stiffest assignment for some time, the manner in which he has travelled and quickened in his races this year firmly suggests he is well capable of mixing it at the highest level once more.

Buena Vista and Cape Blanco are joint top-rated with Timeform and clearly have to be respected, though they will both be running on tapeta for the first time.

Buena Vista is a model of consistency, never out of the first three in her career, and she finished a fine second to Dar Re Mi in the Dubai Sheema Classic 12 months ago. The shorter trip isn't an issue - indeed she won over 1m on her next start - and she seems more certain than most to give her running. As such, a current price of around 10.0 makes her an attractive each-way proposition.

Cape Blanco will be breaking ground new ground for Ballydoyle in being their first representative in the Dubai World Cup. He was one of the highest rated three-year-olds in training last year, his peak coming when landing the Irish Champion Stakes by over five lengths from Rip Van Winkle. He disappointed in the Arc on his final outing, but he looks sure to be a leading light for his yard this year in all the big middle-distance races and it will be interesting to see how he gets on.

Wherever Buena Vista finishes, it's not hard to imagine her compatriot Victoire Pisa being too far behind. He got the better of Buena Vista when the pair met in the Arima Kinen (Grade 1) last time but he did hold a tactical advantage that day and it was to Buena Vista's credit that she got within a nose. A truer reflection of their respective merits came in the Japan Cup with Buena Vista first past the post (subsequently demoted to second) and Victoire Pisa in third, that piece of form firmly suggesting that Buena Vista should come out on top once more.

Gio Ponti went off second favourite in this race 12 months ago when only fourth. He didn't seem quite at his best then, indeed, beaten at prohibitive odds in the lead up to the race, but it's fair to say he refound his form upon returning to America, winning the Man O' War Stakes at Belmont and the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, both Grade 1s. He arguably ran his best race when second to Goldikova on his final outing and a reproduction of any of those efforts will make him a threat.

There doesn't appear to be anything lurking amongst the rest, the Godolphin challenge notably weak this time around, while Gitano Hernando, who's recently been sold, hasn't really got going in Dubai this year, certainly having far more to prove than he did when favourite for this last year.

Recommendations
Back Golden Sword @ 12.0 in the Dubai World Cup
Back Buena Vista @ 10.0 in the Dubai World Cup

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Timeform have rated Long Run on 184 following the horse's win in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday, making him the highest-rated jumps horse in training.

This figure is well ahead of a normal winner of the race but comes at a time when top-notch chase performances have been more common than usual. The second and third Denman and Kauto Star (of course both past winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup) are now rated 177 and 168 respectively, having been 183 and 191 in their prime.

The other big-race winners at the Cheltenham Festival have been rated as follows: Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly 168 (highest in race since 169-rated Rooster Booster in 2003); Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe 171 (best since 179-rated Master Minded in 2008); and Big Buck's remains on 174+, having not had to run to his very best in winning the World Hurdle for third year in row, the steady gallop stopping him from producing the sort of performance of which he's surely well capable.

Timeform spokesman Kieran Packman commented: "Friday saw a most memorable renewal of the Gold Cup, bringing together, amongst others, a truly top-notch up-and-comer in Long Run and a pair of outstanding veterans in Denman and Kauto Star, neither of whom were at their imperious best but both ran hugely creditable races to be placed and provide plenty of substance to the form itself.

"Similar comments apply to the Champion Hurdle, which had promised for much of the season to be the strongest renewal for several years and, although Binocular was absent, more than lived up to its billing, the first two good enough to have won at least seven of the last eight runnings. The qualities traditionally required of a Champion Hurdle winner, a good turn of foot, the ability to travel strongly and slick jumping, were all in evidence from the winner.

"Although a thrilling contest, a steady pace greatly dilutes the bare form of the World Hurdle, the time more than 10 seconds slower than the Pertemps Final, and the leading pair were significantly more superior to the rest than they were able to show on the day. It's hard to see Big Buck's being defeated any time soon, passing through a new challenge as he faced Grands Crus for the first time and completing it in much the same style as previously; he's an exceptional racehorse."

Highest Timeform Ratings (Chasers)
212 Arkle
210 Flyingbolt
191 Kauto Star, Mill House
187 Desert Orchid
186 Dunkirk
184+ Moscow Flyer
184 Burrough Hill Lad, Long Run

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