TimeformBlog

This year's Flat season is already underway in Ireland and, attempting to get a head start, we'll try to identify the trainers to follow and those to avoid in the coming weeks.

Two wins from just three runners so far means Tommy Stack is well on course to replicate last year's 50% strike rate in March. That strong early-season form has hardly slipped under the radar this term, especially from a betting point of view, and for the purposes of this article, we'll try to overlook the obvious and pick out some yards that punters perhaps haven't latched onto just yet.

Mick Halford is a trainer back on the up if an excellent season in 2010 is anything to go by, the Group 1 success of Casamento playing no small part in a stellar campaign, and early signs suggest that the County Kildare handler will again be one to follow in March. A 30% strike rate led to level-stakes profit of €180 to a €10 stake for this month last year, and the yard have already had two winners from just seven runners this time around. Halford has done particularly well in the early meetings at Dundalk, with all three of his winners last March coming on the all-weather.

Jessie Harrington may still be better known for her training exploits over jumps, but she's also developing an increasingly strong string on the Flat and is very much one to follow in 2011, especially in the early months. Harrington boasted an excellent first-time-out strike rate of 20% across all age groups in 2010, resulting in a healthy level-stakes profit, and five winners from only twenty-one runners meant April was her most profitable month last term. Two seconds from three runners this month confirm Harrington as a trainer to keep on side in the coming weeks.

It may seem odd to include a trainer that had just the three winners during March and April combined last term, but we're confident that Ger Lyons can turn things around this season. Although he's yet to have a winner this year either, early indications are that his yard is in good order, several of his representative running well at big prices and Bible Black a very unlucky loser at Dundalk on Friday evening. By his own admission, a newly laid pro-cushion gallop wasn't the success Lyons expected it to be, and a return to the woodchip surface that had been in place when the yard enjoyed so much success could well to bring about an upturn in fortunes, especially given that a substandard 2010 campaign means the trainer potentially has a whole host of well-handicapped horses on his hands.

One trainer worth opposing early on in the season is David Wachman. The yard's patient approach means the time to follow Wachman's string is during the summer (18 winners in May/June last year), and he had just the two winners from thirty-nine runners during March and April of last term. It's also worth pointing out the yard's juveniles improve markedly for their initial experience, just 3% obliging first-time-out in 2010.

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