TimeformBlog

What else can there be to concentrate on in this Handicappers' Corner than Frankel? Just in case you missed it, the Henry Cecil-trained colt won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday in unforgettable style to extend his unbeaten run to six.

He was sent off the shortest-priced favourite in the race since 1974 and won by the widest margin - six lengths - since Tudor Minstrel won by eight in 1947. Frankel's combined winning margins now stand at 35¾ lengths.

It was not just Frankel's winning margin that was remarkable in the first British classic of 2011: there was an astonishing 17½ lengths back to the fourth, 26 lengths back to the seventh and nearly a furlong back to the last in the field of 13. Top jumps races are not often won in such a fashion, let alone top Flat races at just a mile and on ground on the fast side of good.

It is not necessary to understand ratings to appreciate such special occasions. But ratings are a way of measuring the worth of performances in a wider historical context, and events like Saturday's test not just the participants but the methods that handicappers use.

As stated previously, the idea that you should pick a horse which has "run to form" and base your entire assessment of a race around that - so-called yardstick handicapping - is dubious at the best of times and is especially flawed when dealing with unexposed horses still short of maturity.

It is also patently wrong to apply the same pounds-per-length allowances to all races at a given distance regardless of the circumstances. And, yet, such handicapping-by-convenience continues to be peddled in some quarters.

At Timeform we use a suite of handicapping tools (click HERE to find out more about how we do things) to assist in coming up with ratings. These include race standardisation - whereby the likely strength of a race is established from precedent, after adjustment for time, conditions, field size, margins between horses and so on - prior-rating standardisation and time analysis.

Each of these measures independently pointed to Frankel's winning performance being worthy of a figure in the mid-to-high 130s on the bare result: a bare-form 137 falls well within the range of likely figures.

But 'the bare result' does not always tell the whole story, including, arguably, here. Frankel went off in front and ran his rivals ragged. By halfway, he was at least 10 lengths clear of the main pack, most of whom were hard at work while he was still travelling within himself. It was only late in the day that he looked like winning by anything other than a record margin.

Sectional analysis would have helped greatly in measuring the merit of how Frankel went about winning the 2000 Guineas, and not just that he did. But British racing does not have official sectionals, and the falseness of this economy becomes especially apparent on occasions like this.

Nonetheless, it is possible to establish that Frankel got to halfway in about 47.5 sec (after response delay and parallax error is accounted for). That is significantly faster than the Guineas for which we have electronic sectionals, including ones run under quicker conditions than this year's. Frankel appeared to be posting 11-second or near-11-second furlong sectionals mid-race, something more likely to be seen in a top sprint.

Frankel gave a substantial beating to the placed horses Dubawi Gold (rated 121, just below the standard for a Guineas runner-up) and Native Khan (rated 120, just above par for a third), but the likelihood is that it could have been even more. The extra two lengths (5 lb) that Timeform's race reporter added is conservative but takes the colt's rating up to 142.

By comparison, the aforementioned Tudor Minstrel earned a rating of 144 at his best, as did Brigadier Gerard, winner of the Guineas in 1971. Sea The Stars and Harbinger were both rated 140 - at longer distances - in recent years. No horse had run to higher than 130 in the Guineas since Dancing Brave in 1986.

Frankel's 142 rating will be tested by his performances, and by the performances of those he beat pointless at Newmarket, through the rest of the year. In that sense it is 'provisional', but it is a rating that we at Timeform are happy to stand by given the evidence available at this stage. That evidence includes an outstanding final time, translating to a timefigure of 136.

Only very good horses can run times like that. Surely only a true great could run one having gone so fast so early.

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The Timeform guide to Perth's 3.50 this afternoon:

Songe found his feete over fences when winning 2½m handicaps at Huntigdon and Sandown in the autumn. He took a heavy fall over hurdles at Kempton on his penultimate start and was laboured in a tongue tied back over fences last month.

King Edmund won three times in novices chases in 2009/10. He failed to score last term, though ran well last time and isn't ruled out on his first try at this trip over fences.

Roudoudou Ville jumped much more fluently when opening his chasing account in a 2m Wincanton handicap in March and followed up with plenty to spare at Chepstow later in the month. He is 18 lb higher now but remains unexposed and is very much one to keep on side.

Stormin Exit was going well when an unlucky faller in the Grand Sefton in November, but didn't jump well back over the National fences in the Topham last time. He looks on a stiff mark after his win in a small field at Ayr in March.

Safari Adventures is a front runner who improved markedly when a wide-margin winner over 2½m at Aintree in June. He has shown similar form in several placed efforts since prior to finding 3m in soft ground too much of a test last time.

Door Boy made a promising start over fences in 2009/10 winning at up to 3m at Aintree and Newcastle. His tendency to finish weakly was in evidence most starts last term, but he did run better at Ayr last time.

Storymaker won over 2½m at Bangor this time last year and was back to form with good placed efforts the last twice at up to 3m. He is sometimes let down by his jumping and isn't all that consistent, but the return to this trip is ideal.

Tartan Snow got off the mark over fences when scoring at Carlisle in February and made amends for two unlucky efforts in between when back to winning ways at Kelso last time. He is up 8 lb but can't be ruled out if his jumping holds up.

Tom's Toybox has been lightly raced since winning four times in 2008/9. He's potentially well treated if coming back to his best, but is hard to enthuse about all the same.

Premier Dane initially took well to chasing a few years ago before losing his way, but has been competitive off higher marks over hurdles since and wasn't discredited back over fences last time.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Roudoudou Ville
2.    Safari Adventures
3.    Tartan Snow

Timeform View: Unexposed and improving Roudoudou Ville has looked a horse going places the last twice and is worth following despite the rise in grade and weights. Safari Adventures and Tartan Snow look best of the rest in a competitive affair.

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Eton Forever was the classic Group horse in a handicap in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his reappearance last month and he can take the step up to listed company in his stride in the Paradise Stakes at Ascot (15:05). Eton Forever's win at Doncaster was a smart effort in terms of form and he's not fully exposed after just five career starts. Zacinto heads the market for today's race but, with due deference to Sir Michael Stoute, he looked a problem horse in 2010 and is surely worth taking on at the prices, Eton Forever being the standout candidate with whom to do just that.

Even at this early point of the season, it pays to look out for three-year-olds taking on older horses in middle-distance handicaps as the BHA weight-for-age scale favours them to a significant degree according to Timeform's equivalent scale. One who can take advantage of the big weight concession today is the filly Hawaafez in the 16:05 at Pontefract. She marked herself down as one to follow when pulling clear with Art History (has since won a competitive event at Newmarket) in a handicap at Beverley on her reappearance. She has gone up 6 lb from that, but the form looks strong (third has also run well since) and with Marcus Tregoning's horses going well she is well worth backing at current prices.

Grissom was probably unfortunate not to win more than one race upon joining Tim Easterby last season and lady luck again deserted him on his reappearance at Ripon earlier this month when he got shuffled back before finishing strongly in a race won by Lucky Numbers. He takes on a few others who have gone with promise recently at Newcastle this evening (20:10) but Grissom is potentially the best handicapped of the lot and is worth supporting to confirm the positive impression he created at Ripon.

Recommendations
back Eton Forever @ 4.7 Ascot 15:05
back Hawaafez @ 2.28 Pontefract 16:05
back Grissom @ 6.4 Newcastle 20:10

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A maximum field of 15 will line up for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday, with Dream Ahead the most notable absentee at the latest declaration stage, whilst 23 have been declared for the 1000 on Sunday...

Dream Ahead's participation on Saturday had long been in doubt, with his trainer David Simcock expressing fears about running the colt on ground on the quick side of good, and he has now been taken out.

Frankel, who currently trades at 1.64, will be bidding to give his trainer Henry Cecil his first 2000 Guineas winner since the 1970s, when he saddled Bolkonski and Wollow to Newmarket success in consecutive years. The Jessica Harrington-trained Pathfork is second favourite at 8.8, while Aidan O'Brien's Roderic O'Connor is next in at 12.0.

All of the leading contenders for the 1000 Guineas have stood their ground, with Moonlight Cloud 5.5, Havant 6.8 and Memory 7.6 continuing to battle it out at the head of the market. Moonlight Cloud currently holds sway as she seeks to become the third French-trained 1000 Guineas winner in the last four years, after Natagora in 2008 and Special Duty in 2010.

As expected, Richard Fahey's Nell Gwyn winner Barefoot Lady has been supplemented as a cost of £30,000, and she can currently be backed at 26.0.

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Strong Suit and Zoffany are the latest names to be added to the list of horses who won't be lining up against Frankel at Newmarket on April 30....

Richard Hannon's Strong Suit, who had been matched at as low as 6.2, was hardly a surprising defection given his disappointing run behind Frankel in the Greenham, while Aidan O'Brien's Zoffany (matched as low as 9.0), who won last year's Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, also misses out but does hold entries in the King's Stand, St James's Palace and the Golden Jubilee, all at Royal Ascot.

This news has only served to strengthen Frankel's position at the head of the market, with the Greenham winner now trading as short as 1.67. Jessica Harrington's Pathfork is the current second favourite and can be backed at 7.4, while Aidan O'Brien's Roderic O'Connor is next in at 8.4.

Timeform Ratings for the 2000 Guineas (weight adjusted)

147p FRANKEL
142 DREAM AHEAD
135p PATHFORK
134 CASAMENTO
133p RODERIC O'CONNOR

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Tartan Gigha was game when winning twice at around 9f last year. He returned to his best when finding only Lowther too good on the AW last month and his excellent course record makes it easy to forgive a modest effort last month.

Sirvino was one of the most progressive handicappers of 2009 and gowas back in top form at the end of last season when just as good at 1½ m as 1¼m. He is versatile as regards ground and has won first time out before too.

Beachfire has won four of his five starts, picking up well to prevail in 1¼m handicaps at Sandown and Goodwood for his last two wins. He still has potential but his quirks were increasingly in evidence last year and he's now in first-time blinkers.

Spanish Duke has won four his last nine starts, improving markedly when taking an easy-ground handicap at Newmarket in August. He was still in form at the end of the year (had the draw as an excuse when last seen) and returns off a fair mark.

Resurge thrived at the end of 2010, winning two of his last five starts, both at Epsom in decent style. He comes back off a career-hihgh mark in a better race, and his record first time out means it's best to look elsewhere.

Shavansky won at Nottingham out last year and ran more good races than bad ones after, shaping like a non-stayer in the November Handicap on his final start in 2010. He has won first time out in each of the last two years and is weighted for a bold show.

Ingleby Spirit rounded off 2010 with a win in a Windsor handicap over this trip but produced and even better performance following up in a similar event at Pontefract on his comeback after dictating the pace. He has more on here after a 7 lb rise.

Opera Gal made up into a useful performer last year, splitting wins in a Warwick maiden at Chester handicap (made all) with three solid placed efforts. She could well have improved further over the winter.

King Olav was better than ever when winning a minor event over 1½m at Kempton (fourth win there) in February. He seemed to run well in a four-runner event at Lingfield last time but this is a whole lot tougher.

Sand Skier is a consisten sort who the made the frame on seven of his nine starts in handicaps last year. He was below form in a lady riders' race at Deauville on his comeback but should be in the mix here with Dettori in the saddle.

Georgebernardshaw is a quirky gelding who got his own way in front when winning at Kempton last month but looks flattered overall by that and has a very stiff task here if that is truly the case.

Gaily Noble won twice over 1m on the AW at Lingfield last year and was well beaten on his only try beyond nine furlongs. He ran poorly over a trip that stretched him at Kempton on his return and has a bit to prove in a better race.

Ramona Chase is a moody type who ended a lengthy losing run over C&D in September (goes well here). He can spoil his chance with slow starts and has no room for error at this level, but a prominent showing wouldn't surprise.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Tartan Gigha
2.    Ramona Chase
3.    Opera Gal

Timeform View: In the absence of Taqleed this tightly knit event could go the way of course specialist Tartan Gigha, with fellow Epsom regular Ramona Chase following him home. The filly Opera Gal is another to consider.

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Frankel stretched his unbeaten run to five in the Greenham without having to reproduce the best of his two-year-old form. He has been credited with a performance figure of 127 for beating Excelebration (115) by four lengths with a further six lengths back to Shropshire (97).

This is in the middle of the range of likely ratings prompted by race and prior-rating standards, below the 129 that might be expected from a particularly strong 2010 edition - which saw subsequent Group 1 winners Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs come clear - but above the 123 and 120 resulting from the slightly weaker renewals won by Vocalised in 2009 and Paco Boy in 2008.

The overall time of this year's Greenham looks unexceptional and is unlikely to provide many further clues as to Frankel's merit. The early pace was steady and a number of the runners (including Frankel himself) took a while to settle.

Frankel's Timeform master rating is likely to remain unchanged on 133p. With regards to his chance in the 2000 Guineas, the last five renewals (with the most recent first) have produced the following ratings from the winners: 124/128/124/125/129.

In other words, Frankel may not even have to run better than he seemed to at Newbury to win at Newmarket on April 30, and it would take a quite outstanding Guineas winner to top the best he has already achieved.

The Craven used to be one of the pre-eminent Guineas trials, but it hasn't produced the winner since Haafhd took both races in 2004. Native Khan's rating was raised to 114p on the back of his smooth two-length victory over Libranno in this year's Craven. He came up short at the top level in the Racing Post Trophy last autumn, though, and it's likely to be the same story in the Guineas.

The major fillies' trials in the last week have merely muddied the waters with regards to the 1000 Guineas. Neither Barefoot Lady (110) - successful in the Nell Gwyn - nor Rimth (109) - who took the Fred Darling - is entered at Newmarket.

What those two races did do, however, is confirm the strength of Hooray's Cheveley Park win. She had Rimth four and a half lengths behind in second that day, with Nell Gwyn third Maqaasid a further length and a quarter back in third.

Hooray's rating of 121 for that win is 5 lb above the average achieved by the winner of the 1000 Guineas over the last five seasons. However, there remain doubts over Hooray's stamina for the May 1 classic, while her trainer Sir Mark Prescott has also reported that she's been slow to come to hand.

A filly that enhanced her Guineas claims recently is Moonlight Cloud, who won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons Laffitte on April 7 by two lengths from Helleborine. In what was an above-average renewal, Moonlight Cloud earned a figure of 112p. Although she had the advantage of dictating, she was well on top at the finish.

One other classic aspirant well worth a mention is the Henry Cecil-trained World Domination. Out of the Oaks winner Reams of Verse, he came with a big reputation and could not have made a much better start than when beating stable-mate Solar Sky by three and three quarter lengths in a Newbury maiden over eleven furlongs. He earned a figure of 100P, which is high for a debutant, and is well worth his place in a Derby trial.

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Clara Zetkin's debut (behind Florestan's Match) was encouraging enough to think she can beat Mother Jones and the others at Redcar (15:20) today particularly given the step up in trip is bound to suit. David Brown's three-year-old was responding throughout the stiff finish at Pontefract, and average improvement would make her difficult to beat today.

Later at Redcar, Frequency should be able to translate his form from the all-weather back on to turf in the claimer (16:50). Conor Dore's sprinter has an excellent record in plating company and there's only really Dolly Parton, who hasn't convinced she's in top form this year, with the ability to pose him any problems today.

Finally, a short-priced one at Windsor. John Gosden has really got his three-year-olds wound up this year, so it's to be expected that Purification completes what seems a simple task in the mile-and-a-quarter maiden (19:20) tonight. He promised plenty when beaten a length by Genius Beast at Haydock on only his second start last year, and is bound to be suited by the step up to this trip.

Recommendations
Back Clara Zetkin @ 3.35 Redcar 15:20
Back Frequency @ 2.68 Redcar 16:50
Back Purification @ 1.91 Windsor 19:20

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Libranno stamped himself as one of the leading early-season juveniles when winning his first 3 races last season, twice in Group 2 company. Not at his best in either start after, and has stamina to prove on return.

Ahlaain progressed well last year and carried that over when second in 2 listed races in Dubai. However, he was never involved in UAE Derby last time and looks up against it in this company.

Casual Glimpse is an imposing sort who took a big step forward when winning a 6f event in July in fine style. That said, he was disappointing in better races on his next 2 starts and stamina for this trip not assured.

Native Khan won a Newmarket maiden on debut and confirmed he was a smart prospect when taking a Group 3 at Sandown in August. Nothing wrong with his run in Racing Post Trophy, and capable of better yet.

Yahafedh Alaih bettered his one juvenile effort when fourth of 9 in Lingfield maiden last month. This level is likely to prove well beyond him, however.

Yaseer stayed on to claim second in a 1m Newbury maiden on his debut in October, and readily landed the odds at Kempton 2 months later. Entered in several top races, he's clearly expected to improve a lot more at 3 yrs.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Native Khan
2. Yaseer
3. Libranno

Timeform's View: Native Khan did very little wrong in his juvenile campaign and can make a winning return to action at the main expense of the promising Yaseer.

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Confirmed stamina is always a handy asset when it comes to such marathon races, and it's looking as if the four-mile National Hunt Chase won by Chicago Grey at Cheltenham last month is going to have a huge bearing on the latest renewal of Ayr's centrepiece. The first three from that race are all set to reconvene on different terms, and all three appear to hold claims to differing degrees. Then again, the winner of last year's long-distance Festival event also returns as a leading player.

Chicago Grey has enjoyed a tremendously productive season as a staying novice, his four wins culminating with a clear-cut success in the aforementioned four-miler at Cheltenham last month. He got into a fine rhythm there and won in clear-cut fashion under an excellent Derek O'Connor ride. With no doubts over his stamina, and his jumping increasingly looking a firm asset, he looks the one to beat as things stand. Chicago Grey had four and a half lengths to spare over Beshabar at Cheltenham and is set to reoppose under 5 lb worse terms. Little to choose between them, then. Perhaps so, the latter finally fulfilling his potential as a chaser in running so well last month, but he lacks the winner's experience for a big-field event such as this and was firmly held by that one when it came down to it last time.

How about third-placed Be There In Five then? What are his chances of reversing the form? Not bad by the look of things. He remains unexposed, finished twelve and a half lengths behind Chicago Grey whilst showing unexpected reserves of stamina at Cheltenham and, moreover, will be better off at the weights with that one. Should Neptune Collonges or Tidal Bay turn up, however, he won't be as well off as he should be, and there's a fear that, a bit like Beshabar, his lack of experience will count against him, yet to tackle a handicap or the hurly-burly of a race such as this.

Going back twelve months, Poker de Sivola arrived at Ayr as one of the favourites for this race having himself won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. He'd endured a tremendously hard race in winning that, though, getting the better of a classic duel with Becauseicouldntsee, and simply wasn't in the same force in the race itself. Ferdy Murphy has afforded Poker de Sivola a decidedly more low-key campaign ths time around, however, and he rather caught the eye in the Cross-Country chase at Cheltenham last month. With stamina and, seemingly, well-being assured, a lot better is expected of Poker de Sivola a year on.

Elsewhere, Neptune Collonges is set to top the weights. A top-class chaser in his own right, even if stablemates Kauto Star and Denman have denied him the limelight, he came back from more than a year and a half on the sidelines with a tendon injury to show all's not lost with a win in the small-field Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January. He took little interest in the Gold Cup next time, though, and it seems unlikely that he'll thrive in face of this sort of test. Also up there in the handicap is Tidal Bay. Whether he takes his chance after unseating at the tenth in the Grand National last weekend remains to be seen but, either way, it's his temperament which is a bigger concern than jumping or stamina, his squiggle a well-earned one with that in mind.

After a long while in the doldrums, Blazing Bailey was rejuvenated as a staying chaser with wins at Cheltenham in January and Ffos Las in February. He seemed to find three miles too sharp when below that form at the Festival last month and should be better suited by this extreme trip. Whether he's good enough for some younger and more progressive rivals is another matter, however.

Ouzbeck rather lost his way before joining Emma Lavelle, but he bounced back this time last year with a win at Cheltenham coming ahead of victory in the Summer National at Uttoxeter. He came back from a winter break with a spin over hurdles at Bangor last month and can be expected to show much more like his true form here, making him of more interest than most over a trip he's more likely than not to stay.

John Wade has enjoyed a fine time of things as both owner and trainer this season and Always Right has made a very smooth transition from points/hunters, winning at Kelso before scoring in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster in March. He was ridden with typical patience and well suited by the strong pace when beating Lothian Falcon a head on the second occasion, but he was a deserving winner nonetheless. The longer trip is something of a concern here, but otherwise he deserves plenty of respect.

That's Rhythm has fallen in the last two renewals of this race and came a cropper in the Grand National last weeked, enough to field against him here, whilst Merigo, who won it last season, simply hasn't looked in the same form this time around and was presumably trained for the Grand National (missed the cut).

Not as tough a National to deal with as last weekend's English version, those easy to fancy easy to fancy, those less so less so. If Chicago Grey has come through his Cheltenham exertions sufficiently well - and he won with a bit to spare - he's sure to take plenty of beating and is comfortably the likeliest winner. Otherwise, his predecessor as the National Hunt Chase winner, Poker de Sivola, is expected to give a far better showing than he did last season.

Recommendations

Back Chicago Grey @ 6.2 and Poker de Sivola @ 17.0 in the Scottish National at Ayr

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