TimeformBlog

Swiss Cross improved when winning a six-furlong Kempton handicap in October and his recent third from a wide draw in a hot seven-furlong handicap at Chester was at least as good. This looks quite a bit easier.

Aye Aye Digby won twice for Henry Candy in 2009, but showed his form only once for Jim Boyle last year. He made an encouraging start returning for this stable at Lingfield last time and there's no doubt that he's on a good mark.

Ghostwing was visored for the first time when winning a warm six-furlong handicap at Chepstow a year ago, but has put in largely moody displays with or without headgear since. His recent run at Ascot was a step in the right direction, but he does most of his racing at six furlongs.

Caprio is a quirky sort whose last five wins have all come in claimers, the latest on the all-weather in January. Both his efforts last month were poor and he's easy enough to oppose back in a handicap on turf.

Beaver Patrol is not the force of old, hence he needed a career-low mark to end a losing run over course and distance in September. He was unable to build on his recent return at Ffos Las earlier in the month (both over a mile) but this trip probably suits him best nowadays.

Buxton readily quickened clear when gaining his third course and distance success last month. He has to put aside a lesser effort at Lingfield last time, but course form always counts for plenty here.

Magical Speedfit isn't one to rely on, but he is a four-time course winner. He was slightly unlucky when runner-up over six furlongs here a week ago so much depends on whether he's as effective at this trip.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Swiss Cross
2.    Buxton
3.    Magical Speedfit

Timeform View: Course regulars Buxton and Magical Speedfit need considering, but Swiss Cross arrives on the back of an excellent effort in a stronger race than this, and looks the one to be with.

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14:20 - Franklino has been something of an underachiever so far based on his home reputation, hinting at temperament more than once last season, and this longer trip looks another point to use against him. With Grace stands out as the obvious alternative, boasting as she does fairly useful winning bumper form and an encouraging hurdling debut here over a trip that's sure to prove inadequate. The fitting of cheekpieces looks another statement of intent, but in case she doesn't take to the headgear then Don't Tell Baby represents a likely but unheralded possible.

14:50 - Pretty simple this in theory. There's clear reason to believe it's an odds-on chance (perhaps 1.67?) that either Life of A Luso or She's On The Case will land this weak handicap, so putting the pair in the 'pot looks one of those 'no-brainers' to which pundits everywhere refer nowadays.

15:20 - There's an obvious worry with the otherwise interesting Ghimaar in that he's been off since last summer, and a more appealing Placepot case is provided by Stage Acclaim (yard flying, claimer excellent value), Tri Nations (never been better) and Cockney Trucker (holding form very well).

15:50 - Sky Calling has too many weak finishes on her record to rely on her backing up her successful chasing debut form. On the other hand, Papradon has been holding his form for a sustained period, while Exulto seems sure to benefit from his own chasing bow with these easier fences sure to help his cause.

16:20 -Diamanpeg dominates the market, but he's had a couple of gruelling races during his recent revival and both Celtic Ballad (interesting trainer/jockey change) and Rosenblatt (very well-treated and signs of resurgence last two starts).

16:50 - There's always a risk with banking on a once-raced bumper horse, but Black Thunder did shape well on his recent debut and has sensibly been given a short break since.

Selections:48 lines
14:20 - 5, 15
14:50 - 1, 3
15:20 - 1, 10, 11
15:50 - 3, 9
16:20 - 6, 9
16:50 - 5

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Duncan is a quirky sort who showed his better side when narrowly landing the Group 2 Prix Foy at Longchamp in September. He is capable fresh and the yard is in good form ahead of this return, but he does have his stamina to prove at this longer trip.

Askar Tau is a smart performer who has gone with renewed zest this term, readily pulling clear when landing the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month. He is sure to make his presence felt if in a similar mood here.

Blue Bajan was second in this race in 2009 and showed he still has plenty to offer when sixth in the Chester Cup on his belated return earlier this month. That said, it's likely he's going to come up short in this company.

Buxted quickly progressed into a useful performer in 2010, winning three times. He ended the campaign with a good third in the two-mile Jockey Club Cup at Newmarket, but this is altogether tougher on his return.

Electrolyser took his form to a new level when placed in the Sagaro Stakes and Goodwood Cup in 2010. He ended the year on a low note but has place claims here if all is well, with the yard in good form ahead of this return.

Free Agent looked a possible Cup performer in the making when winning twice in 2010, including over this course and distance, but was rather laboured when third to Askar Tau at Ascot recently and is tried in cheekpieces now.

Manighar confirmed himself as good as ever in 2010 with a series of creditable efforts at up to two miles in top company, despite drawing a blank. He is respected if fully tuned up but could find a few too good once more.

Native Ruler missed the whole of 2010 and was much improved on his belated return when narrowly denied in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket last month. He is bred to stay this far and is a serious contender so long as this race doesn't come too soon.

Clowance returned from another lengthy break when easily landing the Group 3 St Simon Stakes at Newbury in October. She has as good a chance as any on the book, but would need more rain to fall to warrant support here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Native Ruler
2.    Askar Tau
3.    Duncan

Timeform View: Course-winner Askar Tau comes here at the top of his game and looks sure to make another bold bid, but preference is for Native Ruler, who could have even more to offer at this longer trip (half-brother to St Leger winner Sixties Icon). Duncan is another to consider, while Clowance would enter the argument if the ground eases.

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13:30 - Duchess Dora didn't have a hard race from a bad draw at Beverley on her reappearance and she's now 8 lb lower in the weights than when third in a red-hot C&D handicap last summer. The booking of a more-than-useful 5 lb claimer only increases enthusiasm, so she looks an ideal starting point for our placepot. A couple of others worth including are Ancient Cross (totally unexposed at five furlongs and well worth a chance to prove this won't be too sharp for him) and Johannes (undeniably shaped well at Newmarket last time).

14:00 - Midday got beaten in this on her return in 2010 but she was giving 5 lb to a still-sweet Sariska and actually put up a high-class performance on a par with her very best winning efforts. She's just about the best middle-distance filly or mare in training, and if she runs close to her best today (there's no reason to think she won't) then Midday will prove nigh-on impossible to beat, let alone keep out of the three.

14:30 - This has to be just about the most interesting Dante in recent memory. Seville has the best form, but that shouldn't be held against Carlton House and World Domination, as they haven't had the opportunity to test their mettle in Group races yet. Taking two of the big three is the obvious way to play this for placepot purposes, and we'll opt for promise over substance with Carlton House and World Domination.

15:00 - On the evidence of her two runs this season, it looks as if Off Chance has returned better than ever as a five-year-old and she is very much the sort to be suited by the likely strong pace in today's big field. It's also worth taking a chance on Dance And Dance, whose win at Newmarket last backend proved very strong form. He ran a very good race behind Eton Forever in the Spring Mile on his reappearance and had little chance after a slow start at Sandown last time. He's probably still feasibly handicapped.

15:35 - Night Carnation's win at Sandown marked her out as a pattern performer in the making, and she's rightly an odds-on shot for this race. There's no harm in doubling up, so we're also taking Margot Did, who already has plenty of Group-race form. There's a good chance this drop to the minimum trip could help iron out her occasional weak finishes.

16:10 - A frankly terrible race for the last leg of the placepot, particularly when the concluding handicap has a much better shape to it for such purposes. Still, it needs to be negotiated and the best way to do it is probably to take the two with some worthwhile form (Come On Blue Chip and Noor Zabeel) and a newcomer from a top yard (Giorgio's Dragon).

Selections: 72 lines
13:30 - 3, 12, 16
14:00 - 1
14:30 - 2, 5
15:00 - 7, 13
15:35 - 6, 7
16:10 - 5, 7, 10

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13:30 - We start with a really competitive 20-runner handicap and the best way to tackle it is to take the two Timeform top-rated, who are also the least exposed members of the field. Taqleed was all the rage for the Lincoln in March before being ruled out on the day of the race and the same situation followed in the City and Suburban handicap at Epsom last month. However, Taqleed is taken to finally justify the hype this afternoon. He'll will be suited by the step back up in trip and could well confirm the promise he showed last season. Pekan Star was another to miss a recent engagement when declared a non-runner at Chester last week. The Roger Varian-trained colt was impressive when landing his maiden at Nottingham last season. This course promises to suit the prominent running style he displayed there and he could take some catching off bottom weight.

14:00 - A trappy little handicap here and we will take the top-weight Shropshire to see us through to the next leg. Barry Hills has hit form of late (five winners from last nine runners) and Shropshire is expected to appreciate this drop in class. After winning on his debut at Haydock as a two-year-old, Shropshire then shaped as if amiss in the Gimcrack on his only other run as a juvenile. Given plenty of time to recover, he made an encouraging reappearance when third in the Greenham at Newbury. Understandably no match for Frankel that day, he was not knocked about once the front two extended and should do better now granted a more realistic assignment.

14:30 - The Musidora Stakes only has the five-runners and Arizona Jewel is a confident selection to reach the first two. She showed plenty of promise in maidens, readily winning at Sandown over today's trip on her reappearance. That performance marked her down as filly to follow and with this event maybe not having as much strength in depth as recent renewals, Arizona Jewel might not have to improve an awful lot to win.

15:00 - Having taken a couple of gambles earlier, we can now have a fair crack at the Duke Of York. Dalghar is having his first run for Andrew Balding today having left Alain de Royer Dupre. A smart performer, he has been placed on his last four starts, inclduing when second to Lady Of The Desert in the Diadem at Ascot last season. He probably won't need to improve on last season's form to go close. Delegator is a bit of a mercurial character, classy but frustrating at times. He is dropping to six furlongs for the first time in his career, but has always shown a lot of speed and won over seven furlongs last year. He has a good record fresh and so today might just be the day to catch him. The third selections is the dual-Group 1 winner and Timeform top-rated Regal Parade, who is unpenalised for his win in last season's Prix Maurice Du Gheest at Deauville. He shaped as if in need of the run when only fifth at the Curragh on his reappearance, but should strip fitter now and the recent rain on the Knavesmire is in his favour.

15:35 - Becausewecan won comfortably at Hamilton earlier in the month and given that he stays two miles and is the only confirmed front runner in the field, has a good chance of being placed if allowed to dominate. This isn't one for a banker so we will also take Kathleen Frances. A progressive filly last year, Kathleen Frances won on three occasions and confirmed her effectiveness at the track when a good third to Tepmokea here on her final outing. Tom Queally is an eye-catching jockey booking and with the promise of more to come, Kathleen Frances rates a good bet to make the four.

16:10 - This is surely the best two-year-old race of the season so far, with seven previous winners lining up. It looks tricky, but we will keep the lines down and bank on the Mick Channon-trained Gatepost. The selection is the Timeform top-rated and made a good impression on his debut when winning at Folkestone. Gatepost impressed with the way he travelled that day, looks sure to improve for the experience and should hit the three if running to a similar level.

Selections: 12 lines
13:30 - 4, 20
14:00 - 1
14:30 - 2
15:00 - 2, 3, 10
15:35 - 1, 4
16:10 - 2
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On first glance, the opener at Warwick may look unsolvable but it could be worth taking a chance on James Unett's Crucis Abbey, who has just his second try in a handicap and may yet have more to offer. A solid second in a maiden at Wolverhampton on his seasonal reappearance, Crucis Abbey had previously finished a close fourth in a nursery at the same track, off a mark 8 lb higher than the one he competes off today. With the booking of Jamie Spencer a further positive and the yard's last two runners having both finished runner-up, a big run is anticipated.

The three-year-old maiden at Beverley (16:30) doesn't look very strong and it's one in which Mark Johnston's Taqaat should be able to get his head in front after an encouraging debut fourth to Oasis Storm at Wolverhampton in October. Taqaat had subsequent winner Maywood just two lengths ahead in second on that occasion and, with improvement expected, he should have enough to see off Power Packed, who was very disappointing at Chester on his final start last year.

The final advised bet is Tobernea, also trained by Mark Johnston, who runs in the closing staying handicap at Yarmouth. Tobernea was progressive last year, winning three of his first four starts and, with his final outing easily forgiven, there's every chance that he'll climb further up the handicap this term. With just four rivals to conquer today, he should be able to dominate over a trip that holds no fear for him, and it will be disappointing if he doesn't come home in front before going on to better things.

Recommendations
Back Crucis Abbey @ 8.0 Warwick 14:10
Back Taqaat @ 2.42 Beverley 16:30
Back Tobernea @ 2.82 Yarmouth 17:20

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The 1000 Guineas, run the day after Frankel's romp, went to Blue Bunting, winning her third race in a row. Race standards and prior-rating standards initially pointed to a figure of 116, but the time was quite good and the form rating has been edged up to 118 as a result.

This is above-average, but only just. The majority of recent 1000 winners have been rated in the 115 to 117 range, with Finsceal Beo (rated 123 in 2007) something of a standout.

Blue Bunting is likely to have to run better still to win the Oaks at Epsom, but not necessarily by much. The average Timeform rating (in the race itself) of Oaks winners this century is 119.8, as opposed to 116 for the Guineas.

The focus of attention moved to the Curragh the next day for the first appearance in the Northern Hemisphere of the top ex-Australian horse So You Think, rated 133 by Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe following back-to-back wins in the highly prestigious Cox Plate and a non-staying third in the Melbourne Cup.

So You Think faced inferior opposition but brushed them aside in exemplary fashion, consolidating his previous rating high by running to 127 with plenty to spare.

Events at the Punchestown National Hunt Festival will have a direct bearing on the standings of several of the top performers over jumps. Big Zeb advanced to a figure of c172 in turning the tables on his Cheltenham conqueror Sizing Europe. Hurricane Fly looked even better than at Cheltenham when winning the Rabobank Champion Hurdle easily and is now rated h171.

Quevega (rated h159), Grandouet (rated h151) and Wishfull Thinking (rated c165) were others to put up especially meritorious performances, with the last-named now the most highly-rated novice chaser from the past season.

The Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup would have been a formality for Kauto Star at his best, and should have gone his way even on his lesser recent form, but he ran badly, leaving the way open for Follow The Plan (rated c156) to win a substandard affair.

The form of the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, in which Kauto Star finished third, has taken a few knocks and was dropped 2 lb after this race.

The Chester May Festival proved a happy hunting ground for Aidan O'Brien, who saddled older horses Await The Dawn (rated 127p) and St Nicholas Abbey (rated 126, the same as he was as a two-year-old) to put in big performances in victory in the Huxley Stakes and the Ormonde Stakes respectively.

Both horses could have been rated higher still by "yardstick handicapping" methods, but race- and prior-rating standards, along with time analysis, suggest that would be wrong as things stand.

But there was no doubting what the biggest event of all in the world of horseracing was in recent days. The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday attracted a record crowd of over 160,000 spectators, plus millions of viewers from around the globe.

The race went to the outsider Animal Kingdom, and the initial impression might be that it was an unremarkable affair by its own high standards. In terms of bare form, we have the winner running to 125, which is a couple of pounds below par.

However, the contest was notable for a very slow gallop, with the leader going through the first half-mile about seven lengths slower than in any other Kentucky Derby this century and slower than any leader in the race since 1947. The runners sprinted home, with Animal Kingdom (given an extra 2 lb) and the eighth-placed favourite Dialed In (now rated 124) doing especially well.

We know all this, and can quantify its significance with accuracy, because American racing has comprehensive sectional data. The appreciation of the big race was undoubtedly enhanced by this feature, in its anticipation, during its running (as it became clear what was unfolding) and after the event. If only punters and race enthusiasts in Britain and Ireland could enjoy the same.

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13:45 - Only three places up for grabs in this now, not that that changes the approach needed for the placepot. Amethyst Dawn will hopefully have derived some benefit from her reappearance at Ripon because she's the obvious low-drawn speed in this and might take some pegging back if she can get into a rhythm. It's best to find something that's going to be settled behind the pace to pick up the pieces in the not unforeseeable event that they go too quick and My Kingdom, who is having his first start for David Nicholls, fits that billing.

14:20 - Glen's Diamond didn't really handle Musselburgh last time even though he hacked up, so there's a slight doubt about him around Chester, but he's definitely a pattern horse and is well capable of ruffling the feathers of his Southern-trained rivals.

14:55 - Will St Nicholas Abbey ever confirm the impression he created in the 2009 Racing Post Trophy? Maybe, but it's not worth finding out in the placepot, especially when you've got an ideal banker in rock-solid front runner Harris Tweed. He'll take plenty of pegging back under conditions that we know suit him.

15:30 - Bold Bidder isn't necessarily the best handicapped of these, but she's probably the quickest out of the gate and might get the rail even with the speedy Face The Problem inside her. The other one worth including is Ahtoug, who was unfortunate to run into a Group horse at Sandown on his reappearance.

16:05 - Cala Santanyi and Cheherazad have the best form, but they're both drawn in the car park, so instead it's worth plumping for Elmaam (has the best draw and her Coronation Stakes entry catches the eye) and Heatherbird (form is already up there with the best on offer and shaped as if likely to be better for her reappearance).

16:40 - Imperial Djay is clear on Timeform ratings after his romp at Thirsk, so he's probably worth including despite a rubbish draw. Invincible Force is well handicapped now and he's done a lot of his best work around Chester, so he goes in as the second selection from a more favourable berth in five.

Selections: 16 lines

13:45 - 8, 13
14:20 - 1
14:55 - 3
15:30 - 5, 7
16:05 - 7, 8
16:40 - 2, 9

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As is evident by Light From Mars's recent win in Newbury's Spring Cup, Dandy Nicholls is still the man to follow in competitive cavalry charges and, at this stage, he appears to have a pair of strong chances of adding the Victoria Cup to his trophy cabinet this weekend, with Nasri and Al Muheer due to line up at Ascot.

The connections of Nasri have had great success with the likes of The Tatling, Regal Parade and Evens And Odds in recent years and they look to have found another flagbearer after the horse they bought in October of last year for 20,000 gns from David Simcock won a competitive handicap at Musselburgh last time, a race in which he had subsequent winner Dubai Dynamo comfortably beaten in fifth. That performance, on just his second start for Nicholls, was not only right up there with his lifetime best, but would have also seen him very competitive in most recent renewals of the Victoria Cup and, with the trainer renowned for eking out improvement from his newer recruits, there's every chance that Nasri can continue his resurgence on Saturday.

However, as touched upon, Nicholls has another interesting entrant in the form of Al Muheer, who has certainly shaped better this season than his form figures would have you believe and, despite having recent Kempton winner Merchant of Medici just a place ahead when eleventh in the aforementioned Spring Cup last time, has been dropped a further 3 lb in the handicap. When you consider that Al Muheer produced his best ever performance when winning the International Handicap over course and distance off a BHA rating of 99 in 2009, it becomes clear that he is certainly no forlorn hope.

Of the market principals, Hawkeyethenoo is clearly capable of winning a valuable handicap this year but, although he regularly stays on well over 6f it's debatable as to whether 7f will be his optimum trip, for all that he once won a lowly handicap over 1m½f. Similar trip worries are also attached to Fathsta, whose best form has come over 6f or a sharp 7f and there's the possibility that a stiff test as this will be may just stretch his stamina. What's more, he hasn't fully convinced that he's in top form so far, making hard work of what looked a straightforward task at Warwick last time.

The Nicholls pair may have most to fear from Michael Bell's highly progressive Horseradish, who has won six out of his last nine races, producing his best performance when winning a handicap at Doncaster on his latest start. With Nasri seventh and another subsequent winner Flipando in fourteenth that day, the form looks rock-solid and, if any of these are going to emulate Iffraaj and progress into a Group horse, it's likely to be Horseradish.

Another with a leading chance is Lincoln runner-up Brae Hill, who matched his Doncaster effort there when sixth in the aforementioned Spring Cup last time and is certainly good enough to win a race of this nature. However, he's entered in a handicap at Chester on Friday and the fact that he's two from six there could mean he's more likely to take up that engagement.

Another horse to emerge from that Newbury handicap is third-placed Lowther, whose last two starts have certainly showed he's just as good on turf as he is on the all-weather. That said, whilst he's clearly capable of taking a heritage handicap this season, he's going to be vulnerable to improvers now he's running off a career-high official rating.

Walter Swinburn's horses have been in great form recently and his Gouray Girl is certainly not without a chance if replicating her win in a fillies handicap at Newbury on her final start of 2010. An encouraging seasonal debut when fifth at Yarmouth recently could well have put her spot on for this and, after just two starts over 7f, she's still unexposed over the trip.

Another yard going well is that of George Margarson and he has two live chances to land a race in which he saddled Atavus to finish sixth in 2004. Excellent Guest wasn't always the most consistent last year but put his best foot forward when making a successful return at Yarmouth recently, scoring with more in hand than the distance of a neck indicates. He too remains unexposed at 7f and has live place claims if continuing if building on that. The same goes for Imperial Guest, who finished last season with a flourish, turning in three efforts that would certainly see him competitive here.

Barry Hills won this race with Zaahid in 2008 and saddles Sunraider in this year's renewal. However, although Sunraider appeals as the type to win races this year, the fact that his best form is over 6f with cut in the ground and that he hasn't run for over seven months is enough to suggest he's one to watch rather than back this time.

Similar comments apply to William Haggas' listed-winning filly Shamandar, who's entitled to need her first race since October. The trainer also has one-time Lincoln fancy Kalk Bay entered, but he was disappointing when well held in the Spring Mile at Doncaster last time and now has something to prove dropped back in trip.

Of those yet to receive a mention, James Fanshawe's Primaeval is actually Timeform top-rated after improving drastically for the fitting of a visor at the back-end of last year, but, with a BHA rating of 86, he's looking unlikely to get a run. However, if he does sneak into the line-up, he has every chance if translating his polytrack form to turf.

King of Eden is another who's likely to be popular after his two wins this year, but he certainly needs to improve again to win a race of this nature so, if you're looking for something at a big price to sneak into the frame, then maybe consider Oasis Dancer, who is much better than his last two performances on Meydan's Tapeta surface indicate, whilst Hacienda is no forlorn hope if returning to the form of his second at Thirsk on his seasonal debut.

Recommendations
Back Nasri and Al Muheer in the Victoria Cup at Ascot

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Tastahil is a smart performer who looked as good as ever when second in Chester Cup a year ago. Runner-up in Doncaster Cup prior to landing Jockey Club Cup at Newmarket and likely been laid out for this again.

Dirar produced best effort when coming late to land Ebor handicap at York in August. Not far behind Tastahil in Doncaster Cup next time and should be ready to go now after couple of recent pipe-openers.

Red Cadeaux won over 1½m at Lingfield last season but showed improved form stepped up in trip afterwards, notably in Cesarewitch Trial. Shaped very well over trip too short on comeback and leading contender.

Sentry Duty is a very smart hurdler who looked as good as ever on Flat last 2 runs last year, sixth in Cesarewitch on final start. Not getting any younger and worrying he's not fired in 2 runs over hurdles since.

Darley Sun was very progressive in 2009 when landing Cesarewitch. Didn't go on for Godolphin last season and disappointing he couldn't land minor event when last seen but faster ground now will suit.

Blue Bajan is better known for exploits over hurdles, though second in Yorkshire Cup in May 2009. Not seen under either code for 15 months but cut some slack by handicapper and has good placed form here.

Mamlook gained a deserved success in big handicap when landing this race last year from Tastahil. 4 lb higher now and can't rule out repeat having been ticking over nicely in novice chases over winter.

Montaff is a temperamental gelding whose latest Ripon handicap win when everything dropped right was his first since landing a maiden in 2008. Up 3 lb for that but usually opposable not least in race like this.

Overturn was a vastly-improved front-running hurdler last spring and made a successful return to Flat in Northumberland Plate. Won Galway Plate after that and recent Scottish Champion Hurdle third bodes well.

La Vecchia Scuola won over 1½m at Pontefract in August and ran race of her life when just failing in the Cesarewitch. Should be spot on after a recent comeback at Cheltenham and fair claim at these weights.

Admiral Barry made big strides in Ireland last year, his demolition job at the Curragh in the autumn victory number 3, but well held in Cesarewitch on final start from poor draw and probably bit to find here.

Mount Athos was very progressive for John Hills last year, winning 3 handicaps including Melrose at York. Winning comeback for new yard at Dundalk was very encouraging but widest drawn here and stamina to prove.

Plymouth Rock improved for visor and step up to 1¾m and beyond, culminating in excellent third in Cesarewitch final 2010 outing. Sure to be better for recent return over inadequate trip on AW and could go well.

Swingkeel is an out-and-out stayer who ran well on 3 of 6 starts last season, including when fifth in this race off 2 lb lower mark. Won over hurdles at Ffos Las in March for new yard but wide draw to overcome.

Halla San has been third in last 2 runnings of this race, last year off this mark, and looked a good as ever when fourth to Montaff at Ripon on Flat comeback under a patient ride. Should go well again.

Mystery Star has racked up 2 of his 3 career wins at Wolverhampton, always travelling best when running as well as ever there in October. Has good course form but near career-high turf mark makes things hard.

Icon Dream finished second in Chester Vase and fourth to Jan Vermeer at the Curragh in Group 3 last year but has become increasingly ungenuine. Fair first effort for new yard last time but unproven beyond 1½m.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Overturn
2. Red Cadeaux
3. Tastahil

Timeform's View: Being the only front runner in the field, Overturn couldn't have been better drawn and, fresh from a cracking effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, may be able to add this to last year's win in the Northumberland Plate. Dangers abound, headed by Red Cadeaux and Tastahil, while Mamlook and Halla San are others with good records in this race worthy of respect.

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