TimeformBlog

The 1000 Guineas, run the day after Frankel's romp, went to Blue Bunting, winning her third race in a row. Race standards and prior-rating standards initially pointed to a figure of 116, but the time was quite good and the form rating has been edged up to 118 as a result.

This is above-average, but only just. The majority of recent 1000 winners have been rated in the 115 to 117 range, with Finsceal Beo (rated 123 in 2007) something of a standout.

Blue Bunting is likely to have to run better still to win the Oaks at Epsom, but not necessarily by much. The average Timeform rating (in the race itself) of Oaks winners this century is 119.8, as opposed to 116 for the Guineas.

The focus of attention moved to the Curragh the next day for the first appearance in the Northern Hemisphere of the top ex-Australian horse So You Think, rated 133 by Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe following back-to-back wins in the highly prestigious Cox Plate and a non-staying third in the Melbourne Cup.

So You Think faced inferior opposition but brushed them aside in exemplary fashion, consolidating his previous rating high by running to 127 with plenty to spare.

Events at the Punchestown National Hunt Festival will have a direct bearing on the standings of several of the top performers over jumps. Big Zeb advanced to a figure of c172 in turning the tables on his Cheltenham conqueror Sizing Europe. Hurricane Fly looked even better than at Cheltenham when winning the Rabobank Champion Hurdle easily and is now rated h171.

Quevega (rated h159), Grandouet (rated h151) and Wishfull Thinking (rated c165) were others to put up especially meritorious performances, with the last-named now the most highly-rated novice chaser from the past season.

The Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup would have been a formality for Kauto Star at his best, and should have gone his way even on his lesser recent form, but he ran badly, leaving the way open for Follow The Plan (rated c156) to win a substandard affair.

The form of the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, in which Kauto Star finished third, has taken a few knocks and was dropped 2 lb after this race.

The Chester May Festival proved a happy hunting ground for Aidan O'Brien, who saddled older horses Await The Dawn (rated 127p) and St Nicholas Abbey (rated 126, the same as he was as a two-year-old) to put in big performances in victory in the Huxley Stakes and the Ormonde Stakes respectively.

Both horses could have been rated higher still by "yardstick handicapping" methods, but race- and prior-rating standards, along with time analysis, suggest that would be wrong as things stand.

But there was no doubting what the biggest event of all in the world of horseracing was in recent days. The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday attracted a record crowd of over 160,000 spectators, plus millions of viewers from around the globe.

The race went to the outsider Animal Kingdom, and the initial impression might be that it was an unremarkable affair by its own high standards. In terms of bare form, we have the winner running to 125, which is a couple of pounds below par.

However, the contest was notable for a very slow gallop, with the leader going through the first half-mile about seven lengths slower than in any other Kentucky Derby this century and slower than any leader in the race since 1947. The runners sprinted home, with Animal Kingdom (given an extra 2 lb) and the eighth-placed favourite Dialed In (now rated 124) doing especially well.

We know all this, and can quantify its significance with accuracy, because American racing has comprehensive sectional data. The appreciation of the big race was undoubtedly enhanced by this feature, in its anticipation, during its running (as it became clear what was unfolding) and after the event. If only punters and race enthusiasts in Britain and Ireland could enjoy the same.

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