TimeformBlog

Debussy improved again last year for John Gosden, victory in the Arlington Million being the highlight. Very disappointing both starts at Meydan this year and hard to know what he's capable of right now.

Jan Vermeer made rapid strides at 2 yrs, culminating in Group 1 win in France. In frame in Derby/Irish Derby last year and scope to do better still this term, not given a hard time on return at Sandown.

Planteur is a top-class French colt with excellent turn of foot. Won Prix d'Harcourt and Prix Ganay already this term when looking more straightforward than last year, and solid place claims first run over here.

Rewilding was below expectations in St Leger on final start at 3 yrs, but prior to that looked potentially top class and made winning return in Sheema Classic in March. Drop back in trip not ideal, though.

So You Think developed into top-class performer in 2010 in Australia for Bart Cummings, and very impressive when winning both starts for new yard by wide margins. Undoubtedly the one to beat.

Sri Putra was slightly flattered by second to Twice Over in Eclipse last year and not looked Group 1 horse otherwise. Even beaten at odds on in 3-runner event on return and easily passed over.

Twice Over was better than ever last term over 1¼m, landing Eclipse at Sandown and Champion Stakes (for second time) at Newmarket. Made winning return at Meydan but seemed beaten by more than 1m trip last time.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. So You Think
2. Planteur
3. Rewilding

Timeform's View: So You Think has looked just as good in Ireland this year as he did in Australia and the standard he sets is one his rivals despite their impressive collective abilities will struggle to match. Planteur looks the main threat, with the trip possibly on the short side for Rewilding.

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14:30 - There's a tiny bit of me worried that Hughesy and Peslier may be so busy playing Red Hands (that kids game of patience and timing where flinching was worse than a slap) that Cape Blanco could get away, but all things being equal it should be between the big two. Ignore the purists and vegetarians who'll say it's a race to just savour rather than bet on, as you'll only shout when your money's down, and mine's on Canford Cliffs.

15:05 - My sprinting xenophobia has cost me a packet over the years, but it's too late to change now, so I'm sticking with the mistaken belief that the British bullets are faster than their overseas counterparts. Therefore, it's Kingsgate Native, Group Therapy and Prohibit for me, who've all won at the track previously and will all be suited by the suicidal gallop set by the foreign legion. Rule Britannia.

15:45 - Frankel would probably win the King's Stand, and he'll definitely win the St James's Palace. Even I, who think the sun shines out of Frankel's gloriously powerful backside, don't expect the same outrageous display as he produced in the Guineas, but he'll get the job done with a swagger that will overshadow the Canford Cliffs-Goldikova warm-up act.

16:25 - Things take a sudden turn for the worse with the Coventry: twenty-three two-year-olds and no idea yet how good each one is. Guesswork needed here, but educated guesswork, and Mezmaar is first on the list after looking every inch a Royal Ascot horse when winning so smoothly at Haydock. In support of him, we'll go for Brocklebank for two reasons - Kevin Ryan's juveniles seem to have outboard motors attached, and this colt was so impressive at York that Harry Herbert and friends decided they'd jump on board just in time for Royal Ascot. Last but not least, winners are emerging left, right and centre from the races St Barths has run in, suggesting he's up to this class, and selecting him also means we're covered more or less right across the track, just in case there's any bias at play.

17:00 - This is Royal Ascot, the pinnacle of Flat racing, and therefore we can immediately discount anything that he run over jumps (even though this is effectively a jumps race without the jumps). Zigato is bred to win classics but thinks too much in his races to run fast, so this test looks ideal, as it also is for out-and-out galloper Ashbrittle, who's been crying out for two-and-a-half miles all his life.

17:35 - Shumoos is the biggest certainty to have ever set foot on a racecourse in tomorrow's Queen Mary, and she's represented here by Frederick Engels, who was left for dead by her at Haydock but subsequently won by half the track at Musselburgh. He has, however, got twenty-six immature rivals to negotiate, which may be a bit of a problem, and therefore we'll back him up with outboard-fitted Hamza and lively outsider Caledonian Spring.

Selections
14:30 - 1
15:05 - 3, 5, 9
15:45 - 4
16:25 - 3, 14, 22
17:00 - 11, 12
17:35 - 5, 9, 11
= 54 lines

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The twenty-three-runner Coventry Stakes perhaps isn't the most obvious race to concentrate on with the idea of finding one of the day's best bets, but in Mezmaar (16:25) we have a colt potentially out of the top drawer and he can give the in-form Barry Hills a fourth success in the six-furlong Group 2. Backed into favouritism on his debut at Haydock Park last month, Mezmaar landed the gamble impressively, showing a good turn of foot and looking every inch a Group-race performer in the making. It remains to be seen whether the draw has a significant bearing on things today, but Mezmaar's pitch in stall 1 on the far rail could prove a big positive.

First Bid (13:45) did the business for this column at Yarmouth last month, and given the manner of that victory, we see no reason to desert the Kevin Ryan-trained two-year-old in another seller at Thirsk this afternoon. First Bid became the fourth next-time-out winner to emerge from the Redcar maiden he shaped well in on debut, landing the odds with the minimum of fuss and shaping as though today's step up in trip will suit. Bought back in for 5,800 guineas by his shrewd connections, First Bid can quickly recoup some of that.

There is an interesting three-year-olds handicap at Brighton this evening in which Dark and Dangerous (19:30) could be worth an interest. He's related to some good winners and is by no means the finished article after just four runs, keeping some strong company in maidens last autumn, and shaping encouragingly from a poor position on his handicap debut on his reappearance earlier in the month. The return to turf and the fitting of headgear could see Dark and Dangerous in a different light today.

Recommendations
Back First Bid @ 2.52 Thirsk 13:45
Back Mezmaar @ 6.8 Ascot 16:25
Back Dark and Dangerous @ 5.3 Brighton 19:30

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Canford Cliffs was the leading 3-y-o miler in 2010 and looked as good as ever when landing the Lockinge with plenty to spare on reappearance. Won at this meeting last 2 years and solid claims of doing so again.

Cape Blanco was an Irish Derby and Irish Champion winner in his 3-y-o campaign, but something to prove following a couple of defeats this year and vulnerable to speedier rivals back at shorter trip now.

Cityscape progressed well in 2010, signing off with a Group 3 win at Newmarket in October. Pleasing return when third at Sandown in April, but big gulf in class to bridge here, though easing ground will help.

Ransom Note has improved again since winning the Britannia Handicap at this meeting in 2010, but comprehensively beaten by Goldikova in a Group 1 last time and hard to see things being any different here.

Rio de la Plata was a five-time winner in 2010, including a couple of Group 1s in Italy, but only third in Group 3 Diomed at Epsom on return and needs others to underperform if he is to make a serious impact.

Flash Dance is a useful mare and ran well when acting as Goldikova's pacemaker at Longchamp last time. Similar role on the cards here.

Goldikova is an exceptional mare who arrives here on back of a similar prep to when winning this race last year. Obvious claims of gaining 14th Group/Grade 1 success with pacemaker in to help this time.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Canford Cliffs
2. Goldikova
3. Cape Blanco

Timeform's View: If either Canford Cliffs or Goldikova is on their game nothing else will get a look in. The former has it in him to scale even greater heights this year and is taken to lower the colours of the exceptional French mare.

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14:30 - Ben Haslam has the opening juvenile at his mercy, with favourite Dance For Livvy and lively newcomer Operateur having the race between them. The latter was superior on the Flat and probably shouldn't be as big a price as he is in relation to his stable-companion, but the hurdling experience Dance For Livvy can boast is invaluable when it comes to placepotting in races such as this.

15:00 - Mawsem gave a hint last time that his heart might not be entirely in it, but even so what he achieved in finishing second to subsequent winner Joker Choker makes him the form standout, and it's very difficult indeed to envisage him finishing outside the first three places.

15:30 - No surprise at all to see Aghill popular as favourite on his first start for the outstanding Lawney Hill. She's a better trainer than Rose Dobbin, pure and simple, though even on his old form he'd rate a serious player in this staying handicap. Maid In Moscow has been running riot over fences of late, and it remains to be seen how he fares returned to the smaller obstacles, so Mrs Eff is preferred as back-up. She stays well and, after a sound effort last time, can be expected to go well again over this still longer trip.

16:00 - It's not easy to be adamant about any of those who contest the seven-runner handicap chase which follows. Overbranch's form comes in fits and starts, so now is probably the time to be siding with her after she bounced back to something like her best round here four weeks ago. She's selected, but a slightly stronger fancy is Justwhateverulike, who drops back to what is probably a more suitable trip having looked in good heart over further last time.

16:30 - I'm having a small bet on Naxox in the two-mile handicap chase. He's moved to Peter Hiatt, and if any ability remains intact can't help but prove a force from his much-reduced mark. That is a big 'if', however, and he's not one for our purposes. Balnagore, on the other hand, makes plenty of appeal after a good second at Perth last weekend. With the race being as low-level as it is, it's probably best to take out some insurance in the form of Authentic Act after he showed himself in good heart by winner here last month.

17:00 - Lisbon Lion remains trying over further but, even so, his form is enough to make him a banker selection in the final leg, even ahead of last-time winners Provost and Border Tale.


Selections: 16 lines
14:30 - 3,7
15:00 - 7
15:30 - 6,10
16:00 - 3,4
16:30 - 2,4
17:00 - 6

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Jade has finished second on each of her three starts this season, on each occasion shaping as if she is crying out for a step up to seven furlongs, so she has sound prospects of opening her account for the year trying the trip for the first time at Carlisle this afternoon (15:15). Jade's most recent run came in a six-furlong handicap at Pontefract where the stiff nature of the track almost got her there, going down by half a length to a well-handicapped horse of Kevin Ryan's. Jade has only ever run on good and good to firm going, so today's softish conditions are something of an unknown, but there's encouragement on both sides of her pedigree and off the same mark as a Pontefract she looks the clear pick.

There are bits and pieces of potential knocking about in the three-year-old sprint handicap at Warwick this evening (19:10), including in Henry Candy's handicap debutante Ma Quillet. Ma Quillet showed a bit to work on in two outing in maidens last year and improved again in a similar event at Salisbury on her reappearance, impressing with how she travelled before fitness seemed to become an issue. The handicapper hasn't really taken any chances with her opening mark, but there should be plenty of improvement on the cards.

It was something of a surprise to see the Stuart Williams-trained Sim Sala Bim turn up in a maiden on the AW at Wolverhampton in February given the considerable promise of his two outings in turf maidens in 2010, and it was even more of a surprise to see him get beaten at short odds. However, greenness was still very much apparent at Wolverhampton and Sim Sala Bim remains with clear potential to do better this year, hopefully starting at Windsor this evening (20:30). His pedigree very much points to today's trip of a mile and a quarter suiting and he is well worth a chance to build on that earlier promise.

Recommendations
Back Jade @ 4.7 Carlisle 15:15
Back Ma Quillet @ 3.9 Warwick 19:10
Back Sim Sala Bim @ 5.4 Windsor 20:30

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Ceilidh House was much improved for the fitting of a tongue strap when landing a 17-runner listed event over a mile and a quarter at Doncaster when last seen in November. Even is more required on her return.

Timepiece won twice in 2010, including a mile-and-a-quarter listed race at Newmarket in October. She was just as good when third in a Group 3 at York on her return and this test is more suitable than the one she faced at Epsom last time.

Bahati drew a blank in 2010, despite going close on occasions, notably when second in a seven-furlong listed race here, but the spark has been missing all three starts this year and she has her stamina to prove now upped to a mile and a quarter.

Conciliatory won a Kempton maiden and a York handicap last August. Her improvement has stalled since, though, making little impact in listed company on her return and she has even more on her plate upped in trip here.

Crystal Gal failed to cut the mustard in Group company for Kevin Prendergast in 2010. There were signs she retains her ability on her second run for this yard in a York handicap last month, but has abit to prove all the same.

Gallic Star often ran well without managing a win in listed/pattern company at up to a mile and a half in 2010, but has been below par both starts this year and a return to her very best may not be enough to get the job done here.

Mirror Lake was hugely progressive last year, winning three times and signed off with a second in a mile-and-a-quarter Group 3 in September. She shaped as if needing the race on her comeback last month and is sure to be a lot sharper this time.

Piano made it three wins from her last four starts when impressively capturing a 10-furlong Yarmouth handicap last month. She is open to further progress and looks well worth her place in this line-up.

Pink Symphony has been placed several times at this level since opening her account in a mile-and-a-quarter Newbury maiden 14 months ago, again running respectably at Haydock recently, but she is likely to find a few too good again.

Pipette has shown useful form during a stop-start career thus far. She shaped as if retaining her ability on return from a year off when mid-field in a listed race at Haydock last month, but more is required to take this.

Sea of Heartbreak has won four times up to a mile and a quarter and made a solid first crack at pattern company when runner-up at Newmarket last month. She was just as good last time, but a shade more is needed if she is to prevail here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Timepiece
2. Mirror Lake
3. Piano

Timeform View: Timepiece should be more at home on this more conventional track after struggling with the Epsom gradients last time and looks sure to go close if back to anything like her best. Mirror Lake will be a lot sharper for last month's pipe-opener and is also respected, alongside the upwardly mobile Piano.

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14:10 - Right Result will appreciate the return to five furlongs after fading late over six at Ripon last time, and his bare form does set the standard. That said, he has been gubbed twice at short odds already so there's a clear case for taking out some insurance. The money for the Ryan/Fretwell newcomer Church Music is no doubt significant, but we'll side with experience instead in the shape of See Clearly, who shaped pretty well when going off a shade too fast at Carlisle last time.

14:40 - The first port of call for this gigantic-field handicap is Moheebb, who is now very well handicapped and primed to strike judged on his strong-finishing third at Carlisle last month. It's easy enough to pick holes in plenty of the rest, including Global, who needs to bounce back from a dismal effort last time. That run perhaps came too soon for Global after a win the week before, and there's certainly enough there for the excellent Brian Ellison to play with from a handicapping perspective based on his old form.

15:15 - Dazinski hasn't hit top form in two starts this year, but his second off 2 lb higher in a C&D event last July is one of the more eyecatching pieces of form on offer in this big field, so he goes in first. There are plenty among the remainder that you could give a chance to, one of them being Gifted Leader, whose second to Veiled at Newmarket last time looks sufficiently strong form that he's worth including even from a 5 lb higher mark.

15:50 - Richard Fahey has two in the seller, and of Articality and Artists Corner, it's the former that is both the choice of Paul Hanagan and the market leader at the time of writing. The problem is that the latter has a much more obvious chance judged on form shown to date. The obvious solution to this quandary is to stick them both in and hope we can double up.

16:25 - It's a case of when not if so far as Rocket Rob is concerned and he's too well handicapped to leave out of calculations after shaping with abundant promise of his last two starts. Captain Carey went off favourite for this race last year, but never got the chance to show what he could do from a poor position. There's a chance a low draw could leave him isolated again, but he surely has his name on a decent five-furlong handicap at some point and is certainly in the form to strike after an eyecatching third behind Humidor and Addictive Dream at Goodwood last time.

16:55 - Unlike the bulk of the card, this has only attracted a small field, but it's not any easier for it, with all six fairly closely matched on form. Taking two is probably a sensible policy and the ones that get the nod are Dragonera (progressive and easily excused her run at Sandown last time) and Above All (sets the standard on his third at Ascot two starts back).

Selections: 64 lines
14:10 - 5, 11
14:40 - 7, 13
15:15 - 5, 9
15:50 - 10, 11
16:25 - 3, 8
16:55 - 1, 3

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Kazbow was progressive around this time last year, winning mile-and-a-quarter handicaps at Haydock and Doncaster. His recent return from 11 months off was disappointing, but it's way too soon to write him off.

La Estrella has a tremendous strike rate on fibresand and has continued his unbeaten record at Southwell with six successive victories this year. He is clearly in fine form, but is unproven at two miles and it's been a while since he last ran on turf.

Hawk Mountain is a pretty useful stayer who landed a C&D event last August and bettered even that form when making a winning return at Musselburgh last month. He has to be of interest again.

Mountain Hiker showed he has ability when winning a maiden last year, but seemingly also has his share of temperament (has twice refused to enter the stalls) and is tried in headgear now after being beaten a long way on his recent return.

Dazinski was impressive when winning a two-mile handicap at Ripon early last season. He was just as good when second over this C&D last July and has shown enough on both starts this year to suggest he's returned in form.

Beat The Rush has a steadily progressive profile in the main, winning twice over a mile and a half last year, and he offered the hope of more to come when third over a mile and three quarters at Musselburgh on his reappearance. He is likely to stay this far.

Gordonsville has been a consistent handicapper over the years and showed he's still as good as ever when third to Hawk Mountain at Musselburgh last time. He's 4 lb better off with that rival now.

Montparnasse won two handicaps at up to a mile and three quarters from Brian Meehan last summer and returned this year with a fine second at Ripon. He has been disappointing the last twice, though, and needs to bounce back.

Gifted Leader won at Haydock in May 2009. He was fit from hurdling when a good second to Veiled at Newmarket recently and is well worth a try at this trip.

Ocean Transit has enjoyed a good time of things of late, winning twice over a mile and a quarter last autumn and improving over hurdles after. She ran well over this trip at Haydock on last month's Flat return and is expected to figure again.

Bollin Judith was seemingly better than ever when beating Petella (close second at Ripon since) by five lengths over this trip at Newcastle last time. A 7 lb rise doesn't necessarily rule out the follow up.

Accumulate is getting on a bit but hasn't had much racing and he's been progressive of late, shaping well again when second over a mile and three quarters at Haydock last time. He should be well suited by two miles judged on his hurdling form.

Descaro was better than ever on his return to the Flat when winning at Pontefract in April. He has run creditably in the frame all three starts since and he has every chances if cheekpieces can help him pull out a bit more.

Cat o' Nine Tails improved to win handicaps at Thirsk and Musselburgh (twice_ in the second half of 2010. It would be no surprise if she does better gain at some stage, but there hasn't really been enough encouragement in her recent efforts to recommend her here.

Grande Caiman is almost certainly not the force of old but showed he's still capable of winning races when getting up late in a claimer at Lingfield in March. He has been given a chance by the handicapper and the yard is going really well.

Dark Ranger has done the vast majority of his Flat racing over a mile and ten furlongs, but clearly appreciated the step up to two and a quarter miles when landing a 17-runner handicap here last month. He is up 8 lb but remains unexposed at staying trips.

Dubara Reef had a very good year in 2010, winning five times up to two miles, and has shown even better form when runner-up at Haydock and Nottingham on his last two starts. He went down by just a neck last time so has an obvious chance off the same mark.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Accumulate
2. Dubara Reef
3. Dazinski

Timeform View: This is every bit as competitive as the numbers suggest and finding the winner won't be easy, but Accumulate shaped as though this trip would be right up his street when second at Haydock last time and is given the nod. Dubara Reef has to be considered on the back of his close Nottingham second off the same mark, with Hawk Mountain and Dazinski a couple of other likely types.

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First off this week is the Michael Bell-trained Mokalif (17:00) who looked much improved when upped in trip at Lingfield last time. One of the first off the bridle on that occasion, he rallied for pressure to finish second to the well-fancied Guards Chapel. Mokalif is again upped in trip today, but, both his breeding and his running style suggest that a mile and three quarters is well within his compass and, given that he is the Timeform top-rated, he is expected to go one better this afternoon.

Flying the flag shortly afterwards will be Miss Topsy Turvy (17:10). The John Dunlop-trained selection makes plenty of appeal on pedigree alone, given that she is a close relation to the smart Elusive Pimpernel, but is more so of interest due to her good win in a Salisbury handicap last time. Miss Topsy Turvy was 3 lb wrong at the weights that day, and still showed signs of greenness before staying on powerfully to collar Sacred Shield inside the final furlong. The runner-up franked the form when only beaten a head next time, and with Miss Topsy Turvy likely to have improved again, she rates a confident selection.

The final part of our three-pronged attack is the John Mackie-trained Guga, who was successful twice over ten furlongs on turf last June, and was back to his recent best when scoring under an enterprising ride over C&D last time. Today's main rival, Dragon Slayer, was back in third that day, and with Guga still well treated (due to race off 3lb higher in future), he should go well again.

Recommendations
Back Mokalif @ 2.1 Yarmouth 17:00
Back Miss Topsy Turvy @ 2.48 Nottingham 17:10
Back Guga @ 4.0 Nottingham 17:40

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