TimeformBlog

We begin at Bath with Johnny Portman's Courtland Avenue, a two-year-old who caught the eye when fifth of 15 to Son du Silence in a maiden at Windsor on his debut a month ago. Whilst the merit of that performance is only modest, the form looks relatively strong, with two next-time-out winners (including Dixie's Dream, who finished just a neck ahead of Courtland Avenue) and three of those who finished behind the selection improving significantly since. Regarding today's race, King's Ciel and likely improver Uncle Roger are undoubtedly big dangers, but the form of the yard (two winners in the last 3 days) and the booking of Harry Bentley, suggest a big run should be expected from Courtland Avenue.

The second advised bet is progressive sprinter York Glory, who goes in the six furlong handicap for three-year-olds at Doncaster this evening. Backing a horse on his second start in blinkers in the hope that they work as well as they did first time is not usually a path to riches; however, an exception must be made in the case of York Glory, a horse benefitting greatly from each racecourse experience. His most recent run, when just touched off by the similarly progressive Cinderkamp, was his best yet and it will be disappointing if his position as clear leader on Timeform ratings doesn't materialise in the race itself.

Half an hour later, the unexposed Gladys' Gal looks a solid bet in the seven furlong fillies' handicap. The form of Gladys' Gal's most recent run, when winning a maiden over tonight's trip at Lingfield, was significantly boosted when both the second and third won next time out. What's more, the fourth home (Arabian Heights, beaten over 9 lengths) has also won his maiden since and was narrowly touched off in a handicap off an official rating of 79 on Monday. With that in mind, Gladys' Gal's opening BHA mark of 85, combined with the fact that trainer Roger Varian is going through yet another purple patch (3 winners from his last 7 runners), point to her having a very strong chance tonight.

Recommendations
Back Courtland Avenue @ 6.0 Bath 16:20
Back York Glory @ 3.1 Doncaster 19:25
Back Gladys' Gal @ 3.4 Doncaster 19:55

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14:10 - I had to double check this wasn't taking place at Folkestone later on, as it's not exactly imbued with the quality you might normally expect of a Sandown maiden, at least on paper. The trio that have run wouldn't even be of much interest in sellers judged on anything they've shown to date, but it's definitely worth including one of them and Possibly gets the vote almost by default, having at least shown a bit of speed in an above-average race at Epsom last time. There are a trio of newcomers to consider too and given that Willie Muir doesn't really do first-time winners we'll leave out Key Addition and stick in River Valley and Morning Muse.

14:45 - Manifestation is a half-brother to Sergeant Cecil and he has definitely inherited the family's staying traits. He only really got going inside the last furlong in a steadily run mile-and-a-half handicap at Newbury last time and will relish the additional distance today. Stagecoach Danman is another who will appreciate going a mile and three quarters. He was really impressive when winning his maiden at Pontefract two starts back and was probably unfortunate not to win a handicap at Doncaster last time. There is no good reason why he won't go close off the same mark today.

15:20 - Arsaadi was quite taking when winning her maiden over this trip at Newbury earlier in the month and the form of that effort is given some substance by a near-useful timefigure. With eight runners she'd probably have been a banker, but with just seven on offer now there's room for another selection in the shape of sure-fire improve Kinetica, whose yard took this with subsequent Prix de Diane winner Confidential Lady in 2005.

15:55 - Nahab needs to prove she can be as effective on turf as she is on all-weather, but she's well worth a chance to do so, and the step up to a mile and a quarter today could well elicit a bit more improvement from her. Mountain Range is another that makes some appeal, back on an easy surface and with Spencer in the saddle for the first time. At a bigger price, there's a definite case for sticking in Cashpoint too. There's nothing wrong with his form behind the likes of Modun and Rock A Doodle Doo earlier in the season and he didn't run as badly as the distance beaten suggests in the Cumberland Plate last time, when arguably closer than ideal to a strong pace.

16:30 - Dare To Dance shaped extremely well on debut, earning himself a Timeform large P. He's probably a useful colt in the making and looks as safe a banker as there is on the card today.

17:00 - Junket has been declared for a couple of handicaps in recent weeks only to be pulled out, but if she remains in this one she's going to be of obvious interest as she'd probably have made a winning handicap debut at Doncaster last backend but for inexperience and a troubled run through the race. She could end up a fair bit better than an official mark of 73 and appeals more than most. The second one worth including is Jungle Bay, who came good when a ready winner at Chester last time and remains with some scope from a handicapping point of view judged on the form he was showing France last year.

Selections: 72 lines
14:10 - 2, 5, 6
14:45 - 1, 3
15:20 - 1, 4
15:55 - 2, 6, 14
16:30 - 2
17:00 - 1, 4

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Arsaadi confirmed the promise of her debut when running out a ready winner of a Newbury maiden earlier this month. She is well worth her place at this level judged on that run and rates as a leading contender.

Elusive Kate is an Elusive Quality filly who shaped well when fourth on her debut at Doncaster. She built on that when winning at Kempton last month and has more to offer, albeit perhaps more when able to tackle a mile.

Hawfinch picked up well once getting the hang of things when winninga maiden at Kempton on her debut. She caught the eye in this grade next time and may have more to offer now trying seven furlongs.

Kinetica didn't need to improve on her debut effort to get off the mark at Chester last month. She's well bred and in good hands and is plainly still open to improvement.

Pink Sapphire ran into a couple of smart sorts on her debut and duly got the job done at Salisbury next time. She struggled throughout upped in class last time and needs to leave that well behind to stand any chance here.

Show Flower is a 54,000 gns half-sister to several winners, notably the smart performer Sirocco Breeze. She shaped well in a hot Doncaster maiden on her debut and should do better, though this represents a big step up in class.

Vassaria was placed twice before getting off the mark at Hamilton last month. This trip should suit but she needs to take her form to another level to win in this company.

Worthington overcame greenness to make a winning debut at Carlisle. She was thrown in at the deep end at Royal Ascot but shaped better at Newmarket last time and this extra furlong will be in her favour.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Arsaadi
2. Hawfinch
3. Show Flower

Timeform View: Arsaadi looked one to keep on the right side when running out a ready winner at Newbury last time and she can take this step up in class in her stride. Hawfinch and Show Flower may provide the chief opposition.

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Emilio Largo made steady progress in three runs in maidens, getting the job done over seven furlongs at Salisbury in June. He made a winning handicap debut at the same track last time and still has more to offer.

Rigolletto has just a win in a seven-furlong Chester maiden to his name/ He has put in a couple of creditable efforts in handicaps this term, but hasn't got many secrets from the handicapper no and looks vulnerable to less exposed rivals.

Major Conquest lost his way following a couple of wins over six furlongs last summer, but is beginning to find his feet again and was a good second at Chester last month. He failed to build on that at Ascot last time, however.

Above Standard was reported to have had sore shins after being a beaten favourite in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket. He wasn't hard pressed to win his maiden at Warwick in June and shaped better than the bare result on handicap debut at Ascot last time.

Silverware progressed with experience in maidens at two and got off the mark on his third start back when landing a minor event over a mile at Bath. He ran well over course and distance last time but will be seen to even better effect over further.

Bajan Bear has been much improved in handicaps this year and followed his dead-heat at Newbury with a win at Doncaster last time. He has gone up 5 lb but has conditions to suit again.

Isingy Red improved when coming late to win at Chester in June. He stayed on strongly when third there last time but has a shorter trip to contend with now.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Above Standard
2. Bajan Bear
3. Isingy Red

Timeform View: Above Standard remains capable of better, and although he was beaten on his handicap debut, he can return to winning ways in this field. Bajan Bear and Isingy Red could be the pair to chase him home.

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It's a slightly odd move to see a horse perform with such credit in a Group race then drop to a handicap, particularly a lightly-raced sort like Western Aristocrat, but that's exactly what he'll be doing should he line up in the International on Saturday.

It's unlike Jeremy Noseda to throw his charges in at the deep end, Western Aristocrat tackling the Jersey on the back of a win at Haydock off a mark of 88, but he was fully justified in doing so and arguably shaped best of the rest in finishing third behind Strong Suit, set plenty to do yet beaten little under a length. He is now fully 20 lb higher than when successful at Haydock on his second start, officially rated 108, but the runner-up that day Rhythm of Light subsequently won the Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot (off a mark of 94) and everything points to Western Aristocrat being hugely competitive despite his lofty rating, particularly with the promise of more to come.

Timeform top-rated will be Excellent Guest, who has run two fine races to finish runner-up in similar events on his last two outings. He seemed beaten on merit in the Buckingham Palace at the Royal meeting but that wasn't the case in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket more recently, comfortably on top of the remainder yet no match for Brae Hill who went solo against the near rail. Brae Hill was surely at an advantage in doing so, subsequent events in the July Cup going some way to proving as much, and it will be a little surprising if that one can confirm the form over Imperial Guest despite carrying just a 3 lb penalty.

Hawkeyethenoo carries top weight having already landed one of these big handicaps this season, his victory coming in the Victoria Cup over this very course and distance. That was his first start over 7f for a good while, but his fast-finishes over shorter always suggested he would prove just as good at the trip. An 8 lb rise needn't rule him out of things, but the fact that he was forced to miss Royal Ascot with a minor injury is a concern as he'll need to be right at the top of his game if he is to concede the weight, particularly if the ground became testing.

One horse who won't mind any significant easing in the ground is Striking Spirit, who ran a massive race under such conditions in the Buckingham Palace. He fared comfortably best of those in the low stalls at Ascot and it was the draw which again scuppered his chance in the Bunbury Cup last time. Striking Spirit is easily forgiven that Newmarket run and is worth another chance, looking overpriced at around the 23.0 mark.

Last year's 1-2, Castles In The Air and Noble Citizen, are both likely to line up once more. Castles In The Air finds himself below the mark off which he scored off 12 months ago yet simply doesn't seem in the same sort of form. There is always a chance he has been lined up for this but a leap of faith is clearly needed. Noble Citizen is in much better heart having won a handicap at the track last time, but that was a messy race and he invariably finds a couple too good in these heritage handicaps.

One who could run a big race at an attractive price is Pravda Street, one of several this year to benefit from a switch to Brian Ellison. He won his first two starts for the handler with the minimum of fuss and was having his third start in little over two weeks when beaten at Carlisle last time, whilst the trip was probably also further than suits him ideally. Pravda Street is a powerful traveller who should appreciate the likely strong pace and he shouldn't go unbacked at odds of around 40.0.

Recommendations
Back Western Aristocrat @ 6.6
Back Pravda Street @ 40.0
Back Striking Spirit @ 23.0

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Jack My Boy won twice over six furlongs in the spring of 2010. He has failed to fire this time round, but has been given a chance by the handicapper and was well backed at Pontefract last time. He wears a visor instead of blinkers today.

Chiefdom Prince made a good return when winning a six-furlong maiden at Pontefract and was sent off favourite when shaping quite well in a strong handicap at Ascot back in May. There's a fair chance he has more to offer.

Capone won twice on turf in 2009, including over course and distance. He made the track just once last season, but is on a fair mark if rediscovering his best now with David Nicholls.

Below Zero got back on the scoreboard at Wolverhampton in February and went with more promise at Ascot last time. This is easier and the handicapper is starting to give him a chance.

Seek The Fair Land is better on all-weather, winning five times on polytrack. He put in one of his best turf efforts when second at Newmarket on his penultimate start, but failed to back it up at Epsom last time.

Merchant of Medici is a hold-up handicapper who was back on song when winning over a mile at Kempton in May. He has run creditably since only on polytrack and looks best opposed here.

Cardinal won a handicap at Wolverhampton in December under this rider/ He made a promising return to turf in Windsor in June, but failed to back it up at Newmarket six days later and has a bit to do here.

Indian Emperor won a maiden at Wolverhampton in November, the form of which has worked out well. He looks one of his yard's lesser lights judged on two runs in handicaps this year and cheekpieces need to make a big difference.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Chiefdom Prince
2.    Below Zero
3.    Capone

Timeform View: Chiefdom Prince probably has a fair bit of improvement in him and makes plenty of appeal. Below Zero is dropping in the weights and will likely pop up again sooner or later, while Capone could be set for a revival under his new trainer.

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We kick off with the evocatively-named Rasputin in the opening seven-furlong maiden at Ayr, the same course and distance that Michael Dods's juvenile made his debut over just two weeks ago. Rasputin actually had the reopposing Joshua The First a neck in front when a promising third that day, however, the inexperience that he showed there suggests there's every likelihood that he'll have no trouble reversing the placings with a horse who was having his sixth start already. What's more, with the opposition looking nothing out of the ordinary and his trainer saddling a winner on Saturday, it will be disappointing if Rasputin isn't good enough to break his maiden today.

We stay at Ayr, where the aforementioned recent Dods winner (Spinatrix) will actually be in opposition when our second selection, Hardrock Diamond, lines up in the closing sprint handicap. There was little to recommend Hardrock Diamond in three starts in maidens for his previous trainer, however, a change of yard and the switch to handicapping (off a lowly 46), did the trick at Hamilton last time where he finished a close third to the extremely well-handicapped Boundless Spirit. That staying-on effort over five-furlongs suggest he'll be well suited by the step up to six and he's expected to go close for a trainer-jockey combination that have a 25% strike rate at the track.

Our third and final selection isn't set to appear till late evening but Mina's Boy should be worth waiting for in the staying handicap at Beverley. Like Hardrock Diamond, three runs in maidens merely hinted that Mina's Boy had ability rather than screamed it, yet the shift to handicap company saw him produce an improved performance when fifth to the progressive Kepler's Law at Nottingham last time. The mile-and-three-quarter trip he tackled that day was a big trip hike from his first three runs but the way he stayed on (in keeping with his pedigree) suggest he could improve again for the step up to two miles and he stands out in a race short on potential.

Recommendations
Back Rasputin @ 3.45 Ayr 14:30
Back Hardrock Diamond @ 4.3 Ayr 17:30
Back Mina's Boy @ 4.2 Beverley 20:30

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14:30 - I think Rasputin is my favourite historical character of all, living life as it should be, and while the horse will do very well to meet my affections in a similar way, he can start off by making the first three in the opening juvenile. He finished just behind the far more experienced Joshua The First on debut over this course and distance earlier in the month and, with the experience gained, should get the better of that rival and make his presence felt.

15:00 - A tricky seven-furlong handicap follows. Berbice arrives on the back of a sound effort here last week and, whilst his squiggle is a fully-earned one with his losing run lengthening by the run, a replication of that effort will surely see him hit a place. Linda Perratt holds a strong hand in the race as it goes, with Sabratha also an interesting contender off bottom weight. Her claims will be made all the stronger if rain gets into the ground and is worth having alongside, as well. Northern Flyer is well handicapped and, something of a hobby horse of mine, I'll be including him as well as backing him outright.

15:30 - Jewelled Dagger was just the latest to add to Keith Dalgleish's already well-feathered cap when a conclusive winner here last week. That came over three furlongs further, but he's able to race from the same mark here and so revivified did he look that it's difficult to envisage him not giving it another bold go from the front. Just in case he conks out, pair him with Royal Straight, as he's worked his way back to form and seems ready to strike.

16:00 - Glenluji was just 3 lb lower when winning the fourth leg twelve months ago and, having found his way back to form of late (in frame on last four starts), it's not difficult to imagine him playing a big role this time around as well. Give Military Call a chance, too, back down to his last winning mark and making some late headway last time to suggest he's ready to emerge from the doldrums.

16:30 - Alan Berry got up and running for the season when Wicked Wilma won at Hamilton four days ago, and you can't help but think that the winners will start coming in their droves now he's got one under his belt. They can start with Wicked Wilma herself defying a penalty in what is a very ordinary sprint handicap.

17:00 - It's long odds-on about the winning trainer of the finale being Scottish. Jim Goldie's Monel has really hit the ground running in winning his last two, having more to spare than the margins indicate on both occasions, and so long as they go a reasonable pace it's easy to see him adding further to his haul. Stick in Ian Semple's Burnwynd Boy as well for good measure. He's drifted down to a very workable mark and, whilst having not won since his two-year-old days, he's done enough on a couple of starts this season to imagine he can soon take advantage, including when having his stamina stretched over seven furlongs at this track last time.


Selections: 24 lines
14:30 - 5
15:00 - 8,12,14
15:30 - 5,7
16:00 - 4,5
16:30 - 4
17:00 - 9,10

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Wiqaaya accomplished a simple task on her reappearance at Wolverhampton in March. She has achieved a lot more in turf handicaps the last twice and the step up to a mile will be in her favour.

Robemaker improved on his form in maidens when runner-up in a 15-runner handicap at Newbury on his penultimate start. He was bitterly disappointing at Newmarket last time but it's too soon to write him off.

Arabian Heights got off the mark at the fifth attempt in a maiden at Wolverhampton last week. He warrants respect on his handicap/turf debut, but a stiffer test than this would be ideal.

Electra Star didn't need to improve to win a maiden at Windsor last month. She starts life in handicap on a fair mark and merits consideration with softish ground not a concern.

Set Me Free made steady progress in maidens before opening his account upped to this trip at Redcar last time. He is the type to improve further now going handicapping.

Switchback better his two previous efforts by some way when beaten just over three lengths in a maiden at Doncaster last time. He will need to improve again to take this on his handicap debut.

Yahfedh Alaih hasn't been seen since beating only one home on his handicap debut at Ripon in May. He raced freely that day so the step back in trip may suit, but his mark still looks plenty high enough.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Set Me Free
2.    Electra Star
3.    Robemaker

Timeform View: A few of these possess potential, not least Set Me Free, and he's taken to see off Electra Star and Robemaker on his handicap debut.

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The fourth race is an interesting conditions stakes named after Welsh Emperor, the popular front runner who won four times at the track, including this event twice in 2008 and 2009. It seems likely that a prominent racer will take this year's renewal, but at the prices we'll swerve Kakatosi and side with another who likes to be up there with the pace in the tough and genuine Norville (16.00) who currently trades at 6.6. If you haven't been following the rise of the David Evans-trained four-year-old then where have you been?! Since the turn of the year Norville has progressed from a maiden into a thriving 108-rated sprinter and seeks a seventh success this afternoon. Even in defeat at Chester last weekend Norville shaped well, briefly looking a threat despite being positioned widest of all. He's not had much racing over seven furlongs, but confirmed his effectiveness at the trip with a couple of cracking efforts, again at Chester, in May. Kakatosi is rated 3 lb superior to the selection and is dropped back in grade, but has to leave behind a couple of really tame efforts and looks short enough. Mahubo, a winner in Dubai in December, could prove the biggest danger on his first run for Tom Tate.

In the previous race, York Glory (15.25) is fancied to continue his improvement and see off a number of similarly progressive three-year-old sprinters. Kevin Ryan's charge ran out a comfortable victor at Pontefract last month, in doing so becoming the fourth horse to win next time out from the Nottingham handicap won by Palais Glide in May. He looks well treated on his return to handicap-company and wears blinkers for the first time.

The stayers' handicap can go for the second year running to Sir Mark Prescott, who trains the unexposed Captain Brown (16.35). He's just the type of horse Sir Mark excels with and it will be a surprise if he's not winning more races before long. Captain Brown comfortably landed the odds from Emperor of Rome in a Newcastle maiden in May and his next run in the Edinburgh Cup, when notably favourite on what was his handicap debut, can be ignored given he was poorly positioned as things went. He'll relish the step up to a mile and three quarters today.

Recommendations

All at Haydock Park

Back York Glory @ 4.0 15:25
Back Norville @ 6.6 16.00
Back Captain Brown @ 2.94 16.35

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