TimeformBlog

Otage de Brion notched 2 novice chase victories in 2010 for Charlie Longsdon but in-and-out form for couple of trainers since, well-beaten third in Fakenham hunter when last seen in May.

Safari Adventures is winless since scoring at Aintree in June 2010, but number of creditable placed efforts last season. Excuses for last 2 runs this spring but fitness has to be traken on trust after summer off.

Marley Roca scored twice at Stratford (17.5f) during the spring, including when last seen in May. Effective at this trip but 8 lb rise demands more returning from 5-month break.

Knockavilla has patchy record and doesn't always find as much as expected, but winner of novice chase in April 2010 and creditable third over C&D when last seen in January (left Howard Johnson since).

Le Roi Rouge's last victory came here (2m), but that was back in 2009. Often makes mistakes and was well below his best when last seen at Newcastle in February, his jumping again letting him down.

Horseshoe Reef has been holding his form well this summer, and got his head in front at Uttoxeter in September. Followed up with solid second back at same course last time and no reason he won't go well again.

You Know Yourself was a winner 3 times over fences last season, including over C&D. Below form when last seen in April but still less exposed than most of these and returns with yard among the winners.

Meet The Critics is an Irish point winner, and duly stepped up on hurdles form switched to fences, winning at Newbury (2¾m) in March. Surprise if there isn't more to come over fences and 8 lb rise doesn't look harsh.

Mr Crystal was a winner here on chase debut (2m) in 2009. Off 19 months and shaped as if refinding some form in 2 spins on the Flat recently, so he's no forlorn hope now back jumping.

Persian Gates won twice as a novice last season but returned with much improved display when going in at Market Rasen (2¾m) last month. 10 lb rise may not stop him with yard continuing in fine form.

Zazamix produced best effort over fences when second over this trip at Kempton in February for Nicky Henderson. Well below form since, including on debut for current yard latest. Visor now tried.

Douryna got her act together over fences when landing a 2½m Huntingdon handicap with something to spare in March. Couple of good placed efforts since and can't rule out if ready to go after break.

Morning Moment returned from 15-month absence better than ever when winning at Uttoxeter (21f) in July. Given plenty of time to recover and should be on premises with possibility of more to come.

Border Reiver was a winner 3 times here this year at up to 2½m and returned to form back from 3-month break when second at Sedgefield last month. No surprise to see him go well back at his favoured course.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Persian Gates
2. Meet The Critics
3. Morning Moment

Timeform's View: Last-time-out winners Meet The Critics, Morning Moment and Persian Gates are possibly the trio to concentrate on in what looks a competitive race of its type, the last-named given the nod.

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The William Haggas-trained Mabaany can get us off to a good start in the opening race of the afternoon (14:10) by landing the odds in what looks an ordinary conditions race. Mabaany finished third on his racecourse debut, behind Zumbi and Glen Moss, in what has transpired into above-average Ascot maiden, before a runaway victory at Chester on his one and only subsequent start. He was still extremely green at Chester and was almost clueless to his task when first asked for his effort, but the way he quickened clear of some fair rivals suggested that he would be plying his trade in pattern company sooner rather than later. He comes from a smart family and obviously has a great deal of potential, so a victory here today should provide the platform for bigger and better things.

Kaafel can hopefully provide Richard Hills with a second winner of the afternoon in the maiden at 15:10. Like many of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum's horses, Kaafel is extremely well bred, his dam an unraced half sister to high-class performer Muhtathir, and he achieved a similar amount to that one on debut at Newbury. He impressed with the amount of ground he made up in the final furlong at the Berkshire venue, having sat off the pace, closing well in the final stages despite hanging markedly for pressure. Richard Hills will have had first choice of the other Sheikh Hamdan runners for this contest, so the hint that he's chosen Kaafel should be taken.

In the minor event an hour later, it's worth taking a chance on Zoowraa, who at her best should prove herself head and shoulders above today's opposition. An impressive juvenile for the late Michael Jarvis last season, Zoowraa put in an impressive effort to land a listed contest at Newbury by three and a quarter lengths towards the tail-end of the 2010 season. She disappointed on her only start this season, finishing last of sixteen in the French 1000 Guineas, but she had an impossible task on her hands considering the draw and today's contest is a far weaker affair. Silvestre de Sousa is booked for the ride in the absence of Frankie Dettori and, in hot pursuit of the Jockey's Championship, we can rest assured he will give his mount every possible chance.

All at Leicester
Back Mabaany @ 2.74 in the 14:10
Back Kaafel @ 1.71 in the 15:10
Back Zoowra @ 2.38 in the 16:10

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Avon Lady has produced mainly good efforts in defeat this season at up to 1m without adding to her 3 career wins. Would be better off with all her rivals were this a handicap, though.

Fugnina is a half-sister to stable's smart miler Fanunalter, and scored twice in her native Italy earlier in the year. Set a stiff task on British debut last month, and this more suitable with that behind her.

Sure Route's Sandown win has been well advertised since, and she progressed again when adding to that at Epsom 16 days later. Well worth a crack at this level in her hat-trick bid.

Metropolitan Miss made a successful debut in 1m AW maiden and got it right on her fourth crack in handicaps at Musselburgh last month (1m). This demands even more, but she's still relatively lightly raced.

Musharakaat had useful form as a juvenile following his debut win at Kempton (7f). Limitations rather exposed this season at up to 1½m, and though this is slightly easier, drop back in trip isn't certain to suit.

Ragsah is a beautifully-bred filly who made steady progress as a juvenile. Hard to be positive about how she's shaped in 2 comeback runs in recent months, presumably amiss when eased right off at Newmarket.

Zoowraa was unbeaten in 2 starts over 7f for Michael Jarvis in 2010, the second in listed race at Newbury. Fast-tracked to Group 1 company for new stable in May, and this much easier, albeit after a lay-off.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Zoowraa
2. Sure Route
3. Metropolitan Miss

Timeform View: Both Sure Route and Metropolitain Miss can boast recent winning form in handicaps, but it's worth chancing Zoowraa, who will outclass her rivals if back to her best.

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Spanish Pride was the impressive winner of a Folkestone maiden and looked to be a two-year-old going places in 2010 before a setback forced her off for almost a year off. She shaped with plenty of promise on her 2011 seasonal reappearance, however, staying on strongly under a considerate ride at the end of a mile contest to finish fifth behind Watneya at Sandown. She seemed amiss on her following start, but was seen in a better light in her one and only subsequent race at Nottingham, where it looked as though she could be capable of progression if kept right. Both that performance, and her display at Sandown, suggested that today's step up in trip to ten furlongs could bring about sufficient improvement to see her go close off what looks a lenient mark in the 17:00 at Salisbury. Her pedigree confirms that she should relish the extra distance and Spanish Pride could be one to be on in this.

Staying at Salisbury, Billy Buttons (17:30) is another stepping up in trip, and it is likely that the extra three furlongs in today's contest will bring about enough improvement to see the Andrew Balding-trained colt get off the mark in what looks an open contest. Billy Buttons has improved with each and every run so far this season, and his profile and pedigree alike suggest that there may be more to come. He has finished second on his last three outings, but that is merely a coincidence, for he has done nothing wrong and possesses a willing attitude. Chief amongst his rivals this afternoon are Mazagee and Spice Fair, but they are more exposed than our selection and he should have enough to get the better of them.

The final selection is Fire Ship, who did well last time racing over a mile for the first time, having previously raced over six and seven furlongs, to be beaten into second by Plym. It was a very encouraging run to pull clear of the third placed horse, when considering how freely he had raced in the early stages, and several subsequent winners have emerged from what looks to have been a strong nursery event. Fire Ship has raced only four times so far and his profile suggests he might be able to improve further to strike off what remains a workable mark.

Back Spanish Pride @ 3.65 in the 17:00 at Salisbury
Back Billy Buttons @ 5.9 in the 17:30 at Salisbury
Back Fire Ship @ 5.5 in the 17:40 at Windsor

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Lord Zenith landed a 1m listed race at Lingfield on 2010 return. Managed only half a dozen runs since and not added to that success, shaping as if all wasn't well when last seen at Epsom in July.

Mabait is a smart performer who won a handicap at Sandown and listed race at Pontefract (dead-heated with Rio de La Plata) in 2010. Indifferent record at Meydan early this year and long absence to overcome.

Al Aasifh showed useful form at 2 yrs and has been just as good this season, his one below-par effort coming when cheekpieces were left off. Limitations seemingly exposed, however, and needs others to underperform.

Inler landed a 7f minor event at Doncaster on his final 2010 outing. Blown hot and cold again this year, but some encouragement last time after being gelded and capable of landing this if taking to blinkers.

Mon Cadeaux is winless since his 2-y-o days and his form has been very up and down, all his best efforts this year coming at Chester. Never threatened in similar race to this at Warwick last time.

Oasis Dancer progressed again when winning twice at up to 1m in 2010, but largely out of form in first half of this year, blinkers making no difference last time. Plenty to prove on return from a break.

Ecliptic boasts a smart pedigree and took only 2 goes to get off the mark as 2-y-o, though luck played a big part. Would have followed up in Group 2 had he kept straight, but 15 months without a run.

Polar Annie is having a good year, bagging 3 handicaps at Chepstow. Again made all when recording latest victory over 1m there in August, but faces an altogether sterner assignment here.

Simpulse has shown little encouragement in various company and looks to have no chance in this one.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Inler
2. Mabait
3. Ecliptic

Timeform View: It's hard to be confident about what most of these are capable of these days, but Inler is certainly still up to winning at this level if the blinkers have the desired effect on him. Mabait's best form also gives him a decent chance for all he's not been seen for several months, while Ecliptic has been off even longer but does still possess a fair bit of potential.

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13:15 - Desert Gazelle looked a very nice prospect on debut, running out an impressive four-length winner over what looked to be an above-average field, and built on that when fourth behind stablemate Discourse in the Sweet Solera. She was the subject of plenty of market support on the latter occasion and performed well enough in a race that wasn't ideally run to suit to suggest she's more than a mere second string for Godolphin (Frankie is on the Al Zarooni-trained Rakasa). It would be folly to just include the one selection in the opener, however, and the second pick is Questing, who seemed unsuited by being forced to make the running in a messy renewal of the Prestige last time. In what will likely prove a more conventional race today, she's expected to progress again.

13:50 - Dark Promise is likely to take the beating in this fillies' only contest and rates as banker material given her performance last time against the colts. She finished third behind King Torus and Questioning on that occasion and, with none quite as strong as those two in the field this afternoon, she should be capable of a winning effort.

14:25 - Poet's Voice is a second banker of the afternoon, taken to bounce right back to form after a disappointing performance when last of seven behind Dubawi Gold when going for a repeat win in the Group 2 Betfair Celebration Mile. That was his first run since the Dubai Carnival in March and it was suggested by his trainer that he may have been lacking fitness, which was the impression he left with the way he shaped. He is a Group 1 winner racing without a penalty and should have no problem if producing anything close to his best.

15:00 - We're going take both Fallen For You and Lyric of Light in the Fillies' Mile. The pair fought out a brilliant finish in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time and, on that form, should be head and shoulders above the opposition here.

15:35 - Conservative, line-saving tactics employed up until now will hopefully hold us in good stead for the fifth leg, the dreaded maiden, that can often be the blowout of any Jackpot bet. Spiritual Star and Snooky have the best form of those with the all important racecourse experience, while of the newcomers, Ellaal arguably makes the most appeal as an expensive yearling and one closely related to some useful winners over this kind of trip.

16:10 - Dangerous Midge is back in blinkers and can improve upon his latest display to run well in this listed contest. He showed marked progression over a mile and a half at this stage of last season and is better than today's rivals. His latest performance, however, did raise questions over his temperament, so we're also going to include All The Aces , who can run well back over his favoured trip.

Recommendations
13:15 - 4, 9
13:50 - 1
14:25 - 2
15:00 - 3, 5
15:35 - 6, 10, 11
16:10 - 1, 3
=24 lines

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Albamara didn't go unbacked when looking an unlucky loser behind a Godolphin newcomer on debut on AW and romped home at Epsom next time. Up steeply in grade but looks open to significant improvement.

Devotion has gone the right way with each run so far and looked a useful prospect when taking a maiden at Leopardstown in June. Fourth since in 1m listed race at the Curragh suggests she's plenty on up in class.

Fallen For You overcame obvious greenness to make an impressive winning debut at Newmarket in July and showed she is pattern class when second to Lyric of Light in May Hill last time. Has that one to beat again.

Firdaws was unlucky in running when beaten a head on Newbury debut and made no mistake when overcoming widest draw to score at Salisbury this month. That form has been let down since, though, so has plenty on.

Lyric Of Light won on debut at Newmarket late last month and only 2 weeks later got the better of Fallen For You by a neck in 1m May Hill at Doncaster. Idled late on there, so good chance of confirming form.

Salford Art confirmed debut promise when winning 6f Windsor maiden at the start of last month. Improved again in nurseries twice since (latterly over this trip) but clearly out of her depth here.

Samitar emulated half-sister Nijoom Dubai when winning Group 3 Albany Stakes, and narrowly denied in 6f sales race at Newmarket next time. This trip just stretched her last time in the May Hill.

Semayyel was in need of the experience on debut, and much improved when landing 7f Newmarket maiden last month. Behind several of these in May Hill last time and lot more needed. Has refused to enter the stalls.

Timeform 1-2-3:

1. Lyric Of Light
2. Fallen For You
3. Firdaws

Timeform View: Firdaws has looked as though she's up to making her mark at this level but she might well come up short taking on the first three in the May Hill. The trip remains a worry for Samitar and it may be that Lyric of Light and Fallen For You are the pair to concentrate on again, with little reason why the Doncaster placings should be reversed.

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Billyrayvalentine (14:20, Folkestone) can get us off to a winning start on Tuesday afternoon and he looks capable of defying a 6 lb penalty that he is set to carry for an impressive win at Sandown five days ago. That was his nursery debut and everything about his performance suggested that there will be more to come from this juvenile in both the short and long term. Billrayvalentine was heavily backed on that occasion and travelled best of all, edging into contention over two furlongs out before putting the race to bed with a notable turn of foot under no more than hand riding from Frankie Dettori. Dettori is booked again this afternoon and the pair should be able to make it two wins in as many starts representing the in-form trainer George Baker.

Bob's Law should be able to land his second novice hurdle in as many starts under the guidance of champion jockey AP McCoy in what appears to be an modest contest (15:10, Newton Abbot) this afternoon. He won last time out by six lengths with a fair amount in hand, having made all throughout, and there is little evidence to suggest that he can't follow up in the same kind of company again. Bob's Law is still lightly raced, having contested the majority of his races in points, and with the novice hurdle experience under his belt, it is entirely possible that he will show an improved level of form this time around. Having said that, if he reproduces what he showed last time then there is still every chance that he will be good enough to deliver victory once again.

Emkanaat is our third and final selection of the afternoon and he should have sufficient ability to defy a mark of 80 on just his third career start in what looks an ordinary handicap (15:20, Folkestone). Emkanaat was an expensive yearling and was sent off a hot favourite on debut, only to finish a disappointing third over a trip that may have been too short. His second start resulted in an impressive victory over seven furlongs, in a race where he dominated and readily drew clear in the final stages, scoring by five lengths. He left the impression on that occasion that there is more to come and this afternoon's race will provide him with the perfect opportunity to show further improvement. His opponents today look to be a fairly modest group of handicappers and if Emkanaat can demonstrate the improvement expected of him then he surely must go close.

Recommendations
Back Billyrayvalentine @ 1.79 in the 14:20 at Folkestone
Back Bob's Law @ 2.3 in the 15:10 at Newton Abbot
Back Emkanaat @2.34 in the 15:20 at Folkestone

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Mister Manannan is a strong-travelling sort who didn't build on his winning reappearance in 2010. He has by and large trod a similar path this time round, although did win in this grade at Leicester last time. He is penalised by the conditions of this race.

Group Therapy improved for Jeremy Noseda in 2010 and has mostly run with credit despite not hitting the same heights for David Barron this time round. This is easier than he's used to and a bold bid can be expected.

Internationaldebut had regularly been a bridesmaid but the penny has dropped of late and he has won competitive handicaps at York and Doncaster on his last two starts. He has the form to win this too, but it does represent a very different test to what suits him best.

Favourite Girl improved since fitted with a visor and posted another good run in defeat when third to Secret Asset at York last month. She hasn't been so good on either start since, though, and looks up against in again.

Golden Destiny ran well when runner-up four times in 2010. She hasn't been at her best either side of a fourth at York in July, but a low draw proved a hindrance here last time and she's better than that.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Group Therapy
2.    Internationaldebut
3.    Mister Manannan

Timeform View: Internationaldebut is thriving at present but the demands of a small-field sprint will be very different to those he has been facing in big-field handicaps. He should go well once more, but the smart Group Therapy is down in class this time and can gain an overdue success.

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14.20 - It's hard to get away from Mezmaar in this opening race. The Charlie Hills-trained colt created a big impression when beating Fort Bastion on his debut and he can get back on track after pulling hard in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in this less competitive contest.

14.50 - A large-field nursery for our second leg, but there are four places to go for as it stands. The main selection has to be Three Sugars, who shaped as if capable of quickly progressing when winning on her debut at Southwell. However, she's going to be suited by further than this ideally and has a different surface to contend with here, so we'll also include a couple at bigger prices for insurance. Aquasulis has been running well at a lower level and should give it a good go for a yard who have recently refound their form and Small Steps is likely to improve after laying the foundations in maidens.

15.20 - Catalyze hasn't progressed this year, but there's been more than enough so far to think he still has the ability to be a major player at this lowly level and he shouldn't be out the three.

15.50 - A wide-open sprint handicap but we shouldn't go too far wrong picking the in-form trio of Sutton Veny, Ajjaadd, and the speedy Judge 'N Jury. The first selection is of particular interest given his fine effort at Ascot last time, only getting edged out in the final stages.

16.20 - Royal Opera sets a fair standard for this claimer and looks sure to go well. However, there's only two places up for grabs so it's wise to also include Jack's Revenge, who was in fine form prior to a blip at Goodwood in June and will figure prominently if ready to go back on the Flat.

16.50 - Gallego is in top form at present and must be included, but there is a doubt as to whether he'll get the strong pace that suits his late-coming style, so it's worth taking the lightly-raced Yensi, who will be better suited if this gets tactical, as well.

Selections: 36 lines
14.20 - 1
14.50 - 8, 10, 16
15.20 - 1
15.50 - 7, 10, 15
16.20 - 4, 5
16.50 - 3, 8

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