TimeformBlog

Ockey de Neulliac has been in good form this autumn, landing seller and claimer over hurdles. Found life tougher in handicaps both starts since last win and improvement needed returned to fences off higher chasing mark.

Primrose Time got back to winning ways when landing 17f handicap chase at Kelso last month. Handicapper taken dim view and raised her 11 lb as a result and all best form has come over shorter.

Alexander Oats improved when opening chasing account over C&D in February. However, ran no sort of race on reappearance back over C&D earlier this month and bit to prove now.

Et Maintenant has not won since April 2010 but came close to taking advantage of slipping mark when runner-up over C&D last time. Never been the most consistent, but claims if in same form.

Banoge is a dual chase winner who has refound consistency in blinkers, runner-up for third time on bounce at Hexham in November. Stamina stretched at Wetherby (2¾m) latest and better expected back in trip.

Something Silver has gained all 4 wins at this track. Shaped encouragingly on belated return when third at Musselburgh last month and one to consider with that run under his belt, despite being 3 lb out of weights.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Banoge
2. Et Maintenant
3. Something Silver

Timeform View: Banoge has held his form well since being fitted with blinkers and can gain reward for his consistency. Et Maintenant and Something Silver can battle it out for the forecast spot.

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El Diego is as good over fences as hurdles, but yet to win over either. Dropped away tamely last time and doesn't look the safest of propositions.

Might As Well is 8 lb below his last winning mark (for another yard). Off over a year and showed a bit more third time up for new stable at Taunton last time and his turn is likely to come again.

Sir Winston is a sketchy jumper who made the frame once again on his reappearance at Fontwell, looking likely winner before weakening badly and fluffing the last. 2 lb lower now and cheekpieces back on.

Marias Rock won at the track and at Ffos Las over fences last season. Shaped well behind pair of well-treated sorts on return at Folkestone and one of the likelier sorts if responding well to tongue tie.

Easter Lad's two best efforts over hurdles came at the course, but it's still only poor form, and he needs to improve a fair bit now going chasing.

Stop The Show was successful off 1 lb lower mark in this race 12 months ago under this rider and fine efforts last twice. Everything seems to point to a big showing.

Blue Lovell failed to build on a relatively promising start over hurdles and 2 efforts over fences so far have been uninspiring.

Kaycee has offered bit more over fences, second over C&D and looking set to repeat the dose next time when falling at the last. Jumping let him down again at Hereford last time. Tongue tie back on.

Amazing Valour is now 15 lb below last winning mark (back in October 2009), but has looked increasingly sour since returning from long absence, beaten long way into third last time.

Pretty Penny has won a point (from 102 Timeform-rated hurdler) since finishing soundly beaten in novice hurdles for Martin Keighley. Interesting now attentions are switched to chasing and handicaps.

Ballinhassig was 33 lb out of weights when a front-running third over C&D last month, but unable to build on it in face of easier task at Lingfield.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Marias Rock
2. Stop The Show
3. Pretty Penny

Timeform View: Jeremy Scott is back among the winners again and Marias Rock could be worth chancing in a first-time tongue tie ahead of last year's winner Stop The Show. Point winner Pretty Penny is very interesting now handicapping over fences off a lowly mark and is well worth a look in the betting.

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Key Cutter landed a gamble in first-time cheekpieces at Leicester (3m) last month, finding more than is often the case. Raised 10 lb for that, and may be taken on for the lead here, so needs to find extra.

Safari Adventures is winless since June 2010, and no longer as consistent as he once was. Below form on recent starts, although not asked to lead last twice, and return to front-running tactics anticipated.

Or de Grugy has been a mixed bag since winning at Kelso (25f) in October 2010, and usually reserves best efforts for that venue. Ran a shocker at Perth in August when last seen, and not hard to oppose again.

Fred Bojangles is a free-going sort who was well handled by Lucy Alexander when winning over 2½m here in November. Well below that form on last 2 starts, and stamina to prove tackling 3m for first time.

Kosta Brava had a good 2010/11 season for Howard Johnson, winning 4 times, the last 3 coming in handicap chases around 2m. Still to show his best for this yard (unseated latest) and opposed at this trip.

Lutin du Moulin was hit and miss in points last year, but landed hunter and handicap at Wetherby (25f) in May. Poorly placed when below best last time, but no easy task to defy career-high mark after an absence.

Seize is a hold-up chaser who returned to form when landing a 3m handicap at Doncaster last month. Failed to build on that last time, adding to his patchy profile, but not ruled out if on a "going" day.

More Equity has been placed on both starts over hurdles since returning from a break, latest behind Everaard here 12 days ago. Of similar standard over fences, although ran poorly in this sphere last month.

Rossini's Dancer proved himself better over fences than hurdles when gaining a brace of wins last spring. Has been held back by jumping issues since, but handicapped to get involved, and good claimer booked now.

Everaard gained both wins in 3m handicap hurdles here, beating Vallani for a career-best effort last time. Yet to convince over fences, but handicapped accordingly, and needs consideration in current mood.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Everaard
2. Key Cutter
3. Rossini's Dancer

Timeform View: Key Cutter is in better form that most, and will try to make all, but his new mark requires improvement, and he will do well to concede weight to Everaard. Rossini's Dancer is interesting with Lucy Alexander taking over for the first time.

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The opening thoroughbred contest at 15:05 is a really competitive affair and perhaps not the best race to be nailing ones colours to the mast, but Barbecue Eddie went into the imaginary notebook after his second to Reynaldothewizard at Meydan on his reappearance and confidence hasn't waned despite the strength of the opposition. Seven furlongs is his trip as never looked entirely comfortable over a furlong shorter last time (also on the back foot after a slow start) and, although his mark of 105 will demand a career-best effort, he should at least be capable of placing despite his advancing years and may even be able to grab a victory.

Godolphin and Mike de Kokk traditionally dominate the races designed for the classic generation at the Carnival and it will be a big surprise if the winner of the UAE 2000 trial at 16:25 doesn't emerge from one of those camps. It really does look as though Godolphin hold all the aces on this occasion and Rassam is taken to supplement his Kempton gains. Victory was clearly expected on his debut, backed into odds-on and he didn't disappoint, tanking all over his field and readily drawing clear to win by seven lengths. He probably didn't beat much (the runner-up has at least won since) but the manner of victory was certainly taking and he looks destined to go onto much better things.

Saeed bin Suroor and Mahmood Al Zarooni will introduce a number of interesting acquisitions throughout the card but perhaps none more so than Alkimos, who should take some beating in the 18:15. This will be just his fifth start after a progressive campaign for Luca Cumani in 2011, winning a maiden at Windsor on his second outing before following up in a minor event at Doncaster. His best effort almost certainly came on his final run of the year when chasing home Pisco Sour in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot, in turn finishing nicely clear of Slumber, and whilst he may need an extra furlong or two in time, he should get away with it on his reappearance and he certainly strikes as being well handicapped off a mark of 103.

Back Barbecue Eddie win and place in the 15:05
Back Rassam to win the 16:25
Back Alkimos to win the 18:15

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Mendip is the winner of 5 of his 7 outings, including when impressive winner of this race last year. Goes well fresh and has good draw, so everything looks in place for a big run.

Derbaas really thrived last season, winning 4 times in total, including the Al Fahidi Fort. Not disgraced when third in minor event here on return but bit to find with some of these.

Dance and Dance was a real improver in top 1m handicaps last year, and showed he can mix it at pattern level on his last 3 starts. Return to AW shouldn't be a problem but must break on terms against these rivals.

Musir is a smart performer who's proving most reliable. Won the 2010 UAE Derby and ended last year on a high when impressive winner of Turkish Group 2 in September. Looks the one to beat back down in grade

Le Drakkar is a Grade 1 winner in South Africa in 2008. Back to best here early in 2011, in frame in pair of Group 2s for A. bin Huzaim. Not at best last time, his sole outing for Saeed bin Suroor.

Escape Route looked better than ever when winning 7f minor event at Jebel Ali last spring. Respectable return in listed race at Abu Dhabi last month but best recent efforts have come over shorter.

Xin Xu Lin was a prolific winner in South America, winning 4 Grade 1s, including Brazilian Guineas and Derby. Respectable fifth in UAE Derby only start for Godolphin last year but Dettori prefers Mendip.

Kavango won his first 2 starts in France when in the care of Andre Fabre and has run well every start since. Essentially found out by rise in grade last 2 starts in 2011 and that should be the case again.

Secrecy picked up minor event at Doncaster in July and as good as ever fitted with cheekpieces when bagging listed race at Newmarket on final outing in 2011. Reliable sort who shouldn't be far away.

Fanunalter is a tricky customer, though smart on his day as he proved when landing Group 3 Diomed Stakes on Derby Day at Epsom. Certainly has the ability to play a part.

Snaafy is a smart performer who has a good record fresh. Back to best when easy winner of listed event at Jebel Ali 11 months ago but poor efforts next 2 starts confirms he's not as consistent as he used to be.

Master of Hounds was juust denied in UAE Derby last year and respectable effort when fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Below par in Belmont Stakes when last seen in June and has since left Aidan O'Brien.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Mendip
2. Musir
3. Fanunalter

Timeform View: Musir, a previous winner of the UAE Guineas and Derby at this track looks the one to beat, but Mendip was an impressive in landing this event on his return 12 months ago and can defend his crown. Fanunalter can run into a place.

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Heez A Steel is not always the most fluent of jumpers but thorough stayer (fifth in Scottish National last term) and not impossibly handicapped. Yet to complete in 2 runs this winter, though.

Pegasus Prince improved for this yard, winning handicap hurdles at Uttoxeter and Market Rasen early last year. Off mark at second time of asking over fences at Sedgefield last month and may have more to come.

Cool Mission can race lazily, but did better once fitted with cheekpieces in second half of 2010/11, including win in 25f maiden at Ayr. Yet to fire this season but extreme test might help.

Shaking Hands won at Warwick (3¼m) just under a year ago, and good placed efforts up to 4m on both starts this term. Jumping sometimes a bit errant but this thorough stayer looks sure to go well again.

Whats Up Woody bettered winning hurdling form when landing a 2½m handicap chase at Carlisle for Howard Johnson in March, but quickly beat a retreat on return for new yard last month and this not much easier.

Star Beat overcame a slipping saddle to score at Kelso in October, but disappointed since and attitude now under suspicion. Third off 2 lb lower mark in this race last year but trip does stretch him.

Dystonia's Revenge was a surprise winner of a 21f Cartmel hunter in May and most fortunate when adding to that in 3-finisher event over 25f here last time. Will be suited by the trip but still opposable in stronger race.

Hennessy shaped well on first start since winning 2009 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown when fifth at Kelso (25f) for new yard in October, but well held all starts since. Handicapper relenting but risky proposition.

Cerium is a smart chaser in his pomp. Lightly raced these days but showed he retains some ability when sixth at Warwick last time. Might be able to win a small race but this looks too competitive.

Apache Blue made good strides in 2011, winning 3 times over fences (here the last twice) and step up in trip could help offset latest rise. Leading contender at the right end of the weights.

Dermatologiste was hit and miss over fences in 2009/10. More straightforward when landing 3 points in 2011 and step up in trip brought about plenty of improvement at Bangor last time. May do better still.

Posh Bird made the frame for seventh time over fences when fourth at Market Rasen for new yard in November. Still to win a race over fences, though, and this is a tough race to shed that maiden status.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Apache Blue
2. Shaking Hands
3. Dermatologiste

Timeform Verdict: The progressive Apache Blue will be well suited by this marathon trip and is taken to see off southern raiders Shaking Hands and Dermatologiste.

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Trainer John Wade enjoyed a strong finish to 2011 (in December the County Durham handler sent out six winners at a strike rate of 21%) and, though Wade has yet to get off the mark so far this year, hopes are high that Quel Ballistic (15.25, Doncaster) can be the first of many. Quel Ballistic has taken well to fences this season and a staying-on second over an extended two and three quarter miles at Wetherby in November suggested there would be plenty of improvement to come when stepped up to three miles and beyond. Quel Ballistic was in the process of proving that point in no uncertain fashion at Catterick last time, where he was running on strongly into a closing second prior to being hampered by the fall of the leader two out, causing his jockey Wilson Renwick to unseat. Such was the effect to which Quel Ballistic was finishing it is likely that he would have won without the leaders' fall and as such has to go down as an unlucky loser. Renwick is back aboard today and the pair are fancied to make amends and provide Wade with his first winner of 2012.

Hopes were high for Nibani (16.45 Kempton) last spring as the then twice-raced four-year-old had been kept in training by Sir Michael Stoute, and he seemed to justify connections decision to persevere when runner-up on his return at Windsor in April. Things have not exactly gone to plan since, but there has been a lot more promise of late, and in the care of current trainer Alastair Lidderdale, Nibani finally broke his maiden at the sixteenth time of asking when landing a ten-furlong claimer at Lingfield at the end of December. In the aftermath of that triumph connections were talking about the possibility of the Spring Mile at Doncaster's opening Flat meeting in March. Whilst that may be tilting at windmills slightly, Nibani did show further improvement dropped back to a mile in a handicap at Lingfield on Saturday where he ran on well to finish a close second. The step back up to ten furlongs this afternoon should suit, and Nibani can notch his second career victory.

Our third and final selection of the day also comes from Kempton in the shape of the David Simcock-trained Gold Tobougg (19.15). Bar one easily forgivable effort on heavy ground at Newcastle, Gold Tobougg's career record is one of steady improvement, and she got off the mark in a maiden at Wolverhampton last month on just her fourth start. That win was over six furlongs, but both her pedigree and style of racing (strongest in the closing stages at Wolverhampton) point to her being at her best over longer distances. As such, the step up to today's trip of seven furlongs for her handicap debut is in her favour and she can make the most of what appears a favourable mark to see off mainly exposed rivals.

Back Quel Ballistic @ 3.4 in the 15.25 at Doncaster
Back Nibani @3.15 in the 16.45 at Kempton
Back Gold Tobougg @2.56 in the 19.15 at Kempton

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Willaim Hogarth has gone well here in the past and more willing than usually the case when winning over 3m here in August. Failed to get anywhere near that form in 2 subsequent runs, though. Headgear back on now.

Secret Dancer landed a gamble in Uttoxeter maiden in 2009 and the money was also down when good third of 10 in 2½m handicap at Cheltenham in April. Well held on return but always one to note in the betting.

Nampour was a useful hurdler for Philip Hobbs but well below form when last seen in May 2010. Been given a bit of a chance by handicapper ahead of return for new yard and not ruled out if betting vibes positive.

Numide is a useful hurdler on his day, winning here and Bangor when switched to Rod Millman last season. Hasn't come close to reproducing that form this time round and cheekpieces need to make difference.

Drumbaloo had plenty in hand when showing improved form on debut for Evan Williams at Chepstow (2½m) in October. Well below form in more competitive event at Sandown since but should find this easier.

Oenologue returned from a long absence to win a couple of handicap hurdles early in 2010. Hit hard by the handicapper for those wins, though, and well held when last seen 14 months ago.

Mountainous has progressive form, making winning start in handicaps when defeating Scorched Son 4½ lengths over 2m here last month. Step back up in trip will suit and there's almost certainly more to come.

Teshali is capable on his day and kept on well in 2m Leicester handicap on first run for his new stable last month. Has won over this trip but chance these testing conditions could stretch him.

Rimini is not that reliable, but capable in this sphere when putting his best foot forward and latest second to handicap blot a solid effort. Place claims again with a repeat.

Armedanddangerous was just modest in bumpers but improved for increased test of stamina when making winning hurdling bow in March. That form not worked out, though, and fell early on seasonal reappearance.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Mountainous
2. Drumbaloo
3. Rimini

Timeform Verdict: A market move for Secret Dancer would be interesting but the unexposed Mountainous looks a more solid option as things stand. Drumbaloo and Rimini also make the shortlist.

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Here are our three suggestions for this evening:

Turf Paradise race 1 (19:30 GMT) win lay #6 GUMDROP FALLS at 3.0 or shorter

Sunland Park race 4 (20:37 GMT) win back #4 MISS DESERT FREEZE at 4.0 or longer

Turf Paradise race 4 (21:00 GMT) win back #2 ROCKY ICE at 3.0 or longer

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13:10 - Kazlian had precious little to beat at Ffos Las last month, pulling further and further clear to win as he liked, and though this race is clearly tougher, there is no denying that he looks a good prospect. It is worth taking some insurance, however, and Tuscan Gold, a stayer with plenty of ability on the Flat, shaped well on his hurdling debut and looks a sure-fire improver.

13:40 - A fairly small field makes up leg two, and none of the participants make all that much appeal, so two selections are required. Edgebury won a handicap hurdle at Towcester in April, and ran up to that level at the first time of asking over fences. His safe jumping that day instils some confidence in his prospects for this afternoon. All three of Phar Again's wins have been recorded at this track and, although he has only one good effort to his name this term, a return to this venue could spark a change in fortune.

14:10 - Westlin' Winds goes in as the sole banker of the day. He has been below form on his latest two runs, showing signs of temperament in the process, but a big drop in class and the return of cheekpieces could sweeten him up and he has a fairly obvious chance of making the places.

14:40 - Kenaleck hinted at ability in bumpers and hurdles in 2010 when trained by Jessica Harrington, and won a point-to-point race at this sort of time last year. He is a bit of an unknown but, on debut for Tim Vaughan, is worth including in the 'pot over a trip which ought to suit. Call It On gained his first win over hurdles in May, and has held his form since, including on his chasing debut. He jumped soundly that day, and he has a solid chance of making the places with headgear now fitted.

15:10 - This sort of race will have been the undoing of many a placepot over the years, but selecting two of the three that have the most realistic chance will hopefully avoid us the embarrassment. Baile Anrai was pitched in at the deep end on his chasing debut, eventually falling in a Grade 2 at Wincanton. However, he made no mistake when getting off the mark over the larger obstacles next time at Towcester, and he ought to progress in this sphere. Soir d'Estruval shaped well on his own chasing debut at Folkestone before a lack of a recent run took its toll. He does have stamina for this trip to prove, but he should do better.

15:40 - A competitive final leg awaits if we have navigated a safe path up to this point, but two selections should be enough to see us across the line. Ruby Crown shaped particularly well on her belated seasonal reappearance at Uttoxeter in November, making good headway before lack of fitness showed. She didn't quite confirm that promise on her next start in a lady amateurs race, but is worth another chance to show herself well treated, being just 3 lb higher than her last winning mark, with Jason Maguire taking over in the saddle. Playing With Fire is a winner over both hurdles and fences, but has often been let down by her jumping. A return to the smaller obstacles could play to her advantage and she has at least been consistent of late.

Selections
13:10 - 8, 9
13:40 - 4, 5
14:10 - 2
14:40 - 2, 4
15:10 - 1, 3
15:40 - 1, 2
= 32 lines

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