TimeformBlog

The opening race is the scene for our first SmartPlay of the day, in the shape of the Mark Brisbourne-trained Itsthursdayalready (13:40). The five year-old has gained two of his three career successes at this venue, the most recent of which was achieved off a 2 lb higher mark than today's, and he shaped fairly well on his return from a three month absence at Wolverhampton late last month, finishing sixth to Avoncreek in an amateur riders' handicap. Itsthursdayalready travelled well that day before meeting trouble two furlongs from home, eventually looking in need of the run when granted some daylight and, with his yard in much better form of late, he has a solid chance of getting back to winning ways.

The pair to concentrate in Southwell's 14:45 are Trans Sonic and Zomerlust, with the former preferred given his six victories on the fibresand. The nine year-old returned from seven months off in December over an inadequate trip (six furlongs), soon becoming outpaced before eventually finishing seventh. He should improve for that outing and would appear to have an excellent chance at the weights (Timeform top-rated) and he really ought to take this event if returning to anything like his best form.

Our final SmartPlay is the Hughie Morrison-trained Captain Bellamy, who is now established as being at his best on fibresand with three wins and a second to show for his four outings on the surface. His latest win was also gained at this distance, travelling strongly and merely being shaken up to assert his authority on the race. The 43 day absence ought not to be a concern, as he is fairly lightly-raced for a four year-old of his ability, a factor which also gives hope that he may have more to offer. His trainer's record at the track (25% strike rate and a £38.73 profit to a £1 level stake) in the last five years simply adds another feather to his cap and he is our bet of the day.

Back Itsthursdayalready @ 6.6 in the 13:40
Back Trans Sonic @ 3.0 in the 14:45
Back Captain Bellamy @ 4.6 in the 15:50

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Best Lover was better than ever on return from a year off when making it 2 from 2 over fences at Wetherby (2m) in November. Possible he has more to offer in this sphere and big player, as should stay longer trip.

Categorical put a couple of laboured efforts behind him when losing out narrowly at Newcastle (3m) last month. Return to shorter no problem, but yet to win off a mark this high.

Diamond Frontier got back to winning ways second time up for this yard at Wetherby (2m) in December. Stays this far, but bounce back called for now sporting a tongue strap after suffering a breathing problem last time.

Charingworth is a quirky sort who was on one of his 'going' days when getting up late at Wetherby (2m) in December. Equally effective at this trip, but no certainty to back that up given his patchy profile.

Dinarius was progressive returned to fences at around this time last year, winning at Exeter (19f), but out of sorts since returning in November and others make far greater appeal.

Pentiffic was successful 5 times over hurdles in Australia. Followed up chase win at Huntingdon (2½m) in January with fine third in a Cheltenham handicap last time and one to take seriously again.

Buffalo Bob is a sound jumping front runner at best who offered hope he could cash in off his sliding mark when twice placed in recent months, but folded tamely last time and visor needs to get him back on track.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Pentiffic
2. Best Lover
3. Categorical

Timeform View: The lightly-raced Best Lover has to be taken seriously again after taking another step forward over fences on his reappearance at Wetherby in November, but the well-travelled Pentiffic is treading a similar path and gets the nod on account of his proven stamina.

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Silver Linnet looked as if she'd continue to prove well treated when landing a gamble on the first start for her new yard over today's distance at Kempton five days ago, but there are grounds to believe runner-up Good Timin' (14:40) can reverse the form in the opening five-furlong handicap. Good Timin', who is joint-second top-rated for today's race (just 1 lb behind Silver Linnet), finished a length behind John Butler's mare last time yet has what could prove a decisive 6 lb swing in the weights. That was only the four-year-old's third start in a handicap and trainer David Brown clearly thought he had a big chance of shedding his maiden tag as he had booked Jamie Spencer for the ride, making today's recruitment of another leading jockey, Philip Makin, a further pointer to his claims. With no guarantee that another change of headgear will work again for Silver Linnet (wore first-time visor last week, now tried cheekpieces) and her wide draw sure to make it difficult to get an early lead, Good Timin' looks the one to be on.

With the absence of Cape of Storms the six-furlong claimer is now down to seven runners, making Ebraam's (15:10) chances of making the placings look minimal. Although Ron Harris' nine-year-old won a Bath handicap off a BHA rating of 74 last July, he has been beaten in a course seller and claimer on his last two starts and faces a number of formidable rivals at the level this afternoon; Hinton Admiral and Master of Disguise both come into the race having won claimer's last time, Tombi has shaped better than the result on his last two outings and should get the race run to suit, while both Imprimis Tagula and My Lord showed more than they have done for a while on their latest starts. What's more, rank outsider Mother Jones is Timeform top-rated, making Ebraam's task of finishing in the first two pretty difficult.

Roedean has been in sparkling form since the turn of the year, winning four from six, but the Oratorio filly is back in a handicap on her first outing for William Stone this afternoon and may struggle to give weight to her four rivals, headed by Enery (16:10). Enery is another making his debut for a new stable having left Mahmood Al Zarooni to join Mark Johnston (five winners from his last eight Flat runners) and, though his in-the-frame juvenile form was nothing special, there's the chance he could prove well treated making his handicap debut off an official rating of 72. With no obvious pace-setters in the field, Joe Fanning could well dictate matters and, with the step up in trip expected to suit (dam listed-placed over 10.5f in France), Enery could be the dark horse in the line-up.

Back Good Timin' @ 4.0 in the 14:40
Lay Ebraam @ 1.69 for a place in the 15:10
Back Enery @ 3.0 in the 16:10

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West End Lad won 3 times in 2011 and good 1¼ lengths second of 13 to Archie Rice (won again since) in C&D handicap last time. Shouldn't be far away once again.

Dubai Bounty is a lightly-raced 5-y-o who had come down the weights prior to resuming winning ways over C&D last time. Dashed clear of Dazzling Valentine that day and looks capable of defying a 5 lb higher mark.

Standpoint needed the drop to claiming company to gain a deserved success here in November. Rare below-par run earlier in the month and no surprise if he bounced straight back.

The Lock Master's last win came over C&D 13 months ago but plenty of fair efforts in defeat since, including getting going too late when fourth to Emma's Gift (won again since) here last time.

Reachforthebucks was much improved to land AW hat-trick for Michael Wigham 12 months ago. Left Rae Guest and in cheekpieces when back-to-form third at Kempton last time, this longer trip might well suit as well.

Opus Maximus has been kept busy of late and had profitable 2011, winning 6 times in all, most recently over C&D on Boxing Day. Didn't fire at Kempton on Saturday, that said tough sort who stands his racing well.

Khandaq racked up the third success of his career in 4-runner 8.6f seller here in January. Had the run of the race up front that day and likely will find life now much tougher back handicapping.

Georgebernardshaw was smart in prime but attitude now an issue, wandering badly (in blinkers) in a seller penultimate start. Claimed from John Quinn for £6,000 after that and found nil for this yard here since.

Dazzling Valentine gained both career wins on AW. Right back to best last 3 starts, even so no match for clear-cut scorer Dubai Bounty when chasing her home over C&D last time.

Sublime Talent was a dual handicap scorer in Ireland (for Dermot Weld) up to 11f and more recently off the mark over hurdles and respectable second in that sphere 2 months ago. May find this trip too short, though.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Dubai Bounty
2. Reachforthebucks
3. The Lock Master

Timeform View: Dubai Bounty pretty much demolished his rivals over C&D last time and just gets the nod from Reachforthebucks, who should win again soon judged on his latest back-to-form third. The Lock Master completes the shortlist.

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We kick off proceedings in the opening event, where a big run is expected from Caledonia Prince (13:20). The four-year-old's two best performances have come at the venue, successful in August last year and finishing runner-up on his latest start at the end of last month. Tactics appear to be in his favour too as with very little pace in opposition, he is likely to get a fairly untroubled passage to the head of affairs, which is seemingly his preferred racing style. The jockey's and trainer's record at the course is another plus, with 7-lb claimer Josh Baudains achieving a 38% strike rate and trainer Jo Hughes a 16% strike rate, and both returning a healthy level stakes profit. All in all, conditions look set for Caledonia Prince to gain his second career success.

Broughtons Bandit (15:00) has very few miles on the clock for a five-year-old and ran the best race of his career when finishing runner-up to Celtic Charlie at Lingfield towards the end of last month on just his second start back from a lengthy lay-off. He previously finished fourth over course and distance in December, staying on late and showing enough to suggest that he acted on the track, and his two efforts since that 13-month absence have left the impression that he is capable of winning a race like today's. An additional bonus is that the third (Vertreux) from that Lingfield run has since come out and won at Wolverhampton, further highlighting Broughtons Bandit's claims.

Just three runners go to post for Southwell's 15:35, but there could be a spot of value in siding with the Phil McEntee-trained Community. The four-year-old, a $150,000 yearling, showed much improved form to win a course-and-distance maiden in December and followed that with a respectable fourth-placed effort, also at the course, last month. She has since bombed out at Kempton in what looked a competitive event, the switch to polytrack seemingly not in her favour, and a return to the fibresand can show her in a much better light, with the 3 lb drop in the weights since her last run at Southwell doing no harm either.

Back Caledonia Prince @ 3.9 in the 13:20
Back Broughtons Bandit @ 4.0 in the 15:00
Back Community @ 3.9 in the 15:35

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Dixie Case is out of an unraced half-sister to high-class staying chaser Yahoo but didn't show much on debut for Evan Williams back in October.

Milgen Bay is a fair hurdler who has taken well to chasing this term, winning a Towcester maiden in November. Good placed efforts last twice and did win bumper earlier in career.

Oscar Whisky is a high-class hurdler who has won both completed starts this term. Unbeaten in a couple of bumpers at the start of his career, and surprising if he's not a class above these rivals.

Power Man made no impact on hurdling debut but had shown a fair level of ability in bumpers prior to that, third at Sandown then not beaten far in listed event at Ascot.

Sir Harry Ormesher was back to his smart best when third in handicap hurdle at Aintree on final start last season, but well held in a couple of similar events this time round. Won once from 3 starts in bumpers back in 2007.

Snow Patrol is capable of just poor form over hurdles these days and big surprise if he's up to playing a prominent role here.

Flat Cap Thursday made the frame first 3 starts in bumpers for Murty McGrath but not so good for new yard in December and only poor form when fifth on hurdling debut since.

Sky Hole is a winning pointer but would be a shock winner on belated debut under Rules.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Oscar Whisky
2. Milgen Bay
3. Sir Harry Ormesher

Timeform Verdict: High-class hurdler Oscar Whisky was unbeaten in bumpers at the start of his career and it'll be a major surprise if he doesn't notch another victory en route to Cheltenham. Milgen Bay and Sir Harry Ormesher can battle it out for minor honours.

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Right Devine has been big prices all starts but off the mark at third attempt in 7f Redcar maiden in October. Found a Group 3 too hot later that month, and opening mark stiff enough on return to action.

Adranian's strike rate is very hard to knock since the autumn, winning 5 times at Wolverhampton. Further 5 lb rise against better opposition clearly demands even more.

Pale Orchid is a well-bred filly who has improved for the switch to David Evans, backing up her ready maiden success at Lingfield when fending off a well-treated sort here (6f) last time. Type to go on progressing.

Key Ambition - NR

Discoverer didn't need to match debut second (dead-heated) at Lingfield (7f) to go one better over same C&D a month ago. Will get further in time, but in excellent hands and one to take seriously.

Fairway To Heaven is a €57,000 purchase who landed a bit of a touch on debut over C&D 2 weeks ago. Greenness masked his superiority that day, so open to plenty of improvement now handicapping.

Mr Knightley improved since tried blinkered on AW, bagging 3 claimers, including on debut for Jim Boyle in November. Not disgraced since, but mark sums him up, and he meets some unexposed sorts here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Pale Orchid
2. Discoverer
3. Fairway To Heaven

Timeform View: Both Discoverer and Fairway To Heaven are open to plenty of improvement now handicapping, but the likeable Pale Orchid will relish the return to 7f and she's preferred.

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Amateur rider Becky Brisbourne has ridden five winners from just 22 rides in the last five seasons, all of them for her father Mark, and the pair enjoy a 25% strike rate and a very healthy level-stakes profit when combining. The father/daughter partnership team up with Harrys Yer Man (13:15) this afternoon, and Thursday's Wolverhampton winner looks to have a great chance of following up in the opening handicap at Southwell. The change of surface is a slight concern, but such was the manner of the unexposed eight-year-old's gambled-on victory five days ago that he's given a chance to prove he's well ahead of the handicapper in a race that isn't going to take much winning.

Another intriguing jockey booking comes aboard Steelcut (14:00) in the five-furlong handicap at Wolverhampton as the in-form Joe Fanning has been booked by David Evans for only the second time in the last half a decade. Steelcut is a track specialist and, despite being beaten in claimers on his last two outings, isn't to be overlooked back in handicap company off a BHA rating just 3 lb higher than when taking a course-and-distance event around Christmas. The lack of pace in the race is a worry, but Fanning is one of the most tactically-astute jockeys in the weighing room and he can make his second ride on the eight-year-old a winning one.

Progeny of Red Clubs enjoy a high strike rate on ground described as 'soft' (23%) or 'heavy' (17%), and it appears the similarly-deep surface at Southwell is also proving well suited to the sire's offspring, as highlighted by Ann Duffield's Heidi's Delight (14:15). Three-year-old Heidi's Delight has improved for the switch to fibresand/fitting of blinkers on her last two starts (a win and a second) and the 2 lb rise for her latest effort is more than offset by her dropping back to the minimum trip, a move that is going to ideally suit the strong-travelling front-runner. Heidi's Delight is currently a Timeform Horse In Focus and it will be disappointing if she cannot successfully burn off her nine rivals at a track where early pace is often crucial.

Back Harrys Yer Man @ 5.3 in the 13:15 at Southwell
Back Steelcut @ 3.8 in the 14:00 at Wolverhampton
Back Heidi's Delight @ 3.95 in the 14:15 at Southwell

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Close To The Edge improved in 2011, winning 3 times, latest at Wolverhampton in September. Assessor now in charge, though, never better than midfield in 5f handicap here last time.

Ghostwing returned to form on fibresand of late and took advantage of declining mark when winning 5f dash here last month. Since below par at Wolverhampton and will appreciate return to this surface

Global Village has been in cracking form during the past few months, winning 3 times, last 2 over C&D and lost nothing in defeat when runner-up here since. Enters calculations once again.

Avonrose was a back-to-form winner of 7f handicap here before good Wolverhampton second. Just fair fourth over C&D since, underlining that sprinting not really her game unless first-time visor does the trick.

Bandstand is a polytrack winner who was back on the up when coming late to snatch C&D handicap last month. Lightly raced for one of his age, so possible he could shrug off a far lesser effort at Kempton since.

Caldercruix appreciated drop to this trip when regaining the winning thread at Wolverhampton in December. Matched that in defeat there both starts since and can't rule out if proving as effective on fibresand.

Upper Lambourn returned all guns blazing to win both starts here in January. Most recent claiming success was a career best and the hat-trick beckons now back handicapping for new yard.

Dancing Freddy was successful 3 times in 2011. Holding form well this winter, including neck second to Bandstand over C&D last month, and should be on the premises once again.

Punching is a fibresand specialist who cashed in on falling mark to beat Rowan Spirit over C&D in November. Operating below that level at present, though, so others preferred.

Joe Le Taxi won 4 times over 6f on AW in early-2011 (including here). Had a couple of runs returned to former yard after disappointing twice in the US later that year, but yet to recapture full sparkle.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Upper Lambourn
2. Global Village
3. Bandstand

Timeform View: Brian Ellison's in-form duo Upper Lambourn and Global Village look sure to be involved once again, with the first-named taken to make a successful debut for the yard after 2 wins last month for Jamie Osborne. Bandstand returned to winning ways on his penultimate start and if back on song is just one of several other possibilities.

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Neptune Equester was suited by stamina test when winning over 3½m at Haydock in November. Has raced lazily when well beaten in stronger races last twice but cheekpieces on to perk him up now and this a lot easier.

Abbeybraney has been seen only 3 times since winning novice for Howard Johnson in December 2009. Going well when falling over National fences on return but poor run at Haydock since, leaving Nicky Richards after.

Mister Marker is a thorough stayer who was third in Borders National at Kelso in December. Decent effort back over hurdles since and no reason he won't give another good account of himself.

Lockstown recorded back-to-back wins at Newcastle and Carlisle in November. Further progress when second (2½ lengths in front of Mister Marker) in Borders National but need to forgive poor effort since.

Etxalar was back on track when chasing home an in-form rival at Carlisle (3¼m) in November, but suspect jumping again let him down since, falling early at Newcastle last time.

Sotovik is a 3-time chase winner, including 3m handicap at Perth in May. Probably needed run over hurdles on comeback in December and likely to be sharper now. Stamina a worry under these conditions, though.

Posh Bird improved at only second time of asking for this yard when beating Cool Mission 5 lengths in 3¾m event at Catterick last month. Has won in mud before and 9 lb rise doesn't look excessive.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Neptune Equester
2. Posh Bird
3. Mister Marker

Timeform Verdict: Neptune Equester has come up short in competitive events the last twice but will find this a lot easier and is well worth supporting in first-time cheekpieces. Recent Catterick winner Posh Bird and Mister Marker look most likely to take advantage if the selection fails to fire again.

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