TimeformBlog

Thursday at York is Ladies' day in more ways than one, with the fillies and mares taking centre stage in the Yorkshire Oaks. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is backing Crystal Capella in the feature and is looking for a big run from a dark horse in the opener on day two of the Ebor Festival.


Capella and Wonder can call the Oaks tune...

The first point to make about the Yorkshire Oaks at 15:40 is that Midday's (and now Snow Fairy's) absence places a completely different complexion on the race.

And the second point to make is that new complexion is attractive from a punting point of view.

In short, I'm keen to be with Crystal Capella and Wonder of Wonders and happy to be against Blue Bunting.

Snow Fairy, who is now likely to go to Deauville, improved on a dull reappearance in the Eclipse to chase home Midday in a slowly-run Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, but Crystal Capella was only a length-and-a-half behind her that day and this extra two furlongs on much easier ground looks all in her favour.

Add in the fact that Sir Michael Stoute's mare pulverised some smart males on her previous start on rain softened ground at Newmarket and Crystal Capella begins to look a strong contender here with Fallon aboard on a track which suits her bold galloping style very well indeed.

Trying to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the four fillies who dominated the finish of the Irish Oaks isn't easy, but I can't resist adding Wonder Of Wonders to the list of Thursday positives.

Aiden O'Brien's filly looked superb in the paddock prior to her fine second in the Oaks at Epsom and ran well for third in the Irish Oaks considering the very testing ground was probably against her.

I'll be surprised if there isn't better yet to come, in which case she looks overpriced at 8.0 and bigger on Betfair.


But don't hang out the Bunting for Frankie...

Yes, I know Blue Bunting is a dual Classic winner with Frankie Dettori on board and that she came home with an irresistible late surge out wide to thwart Banimpire, Wonder Of Wonders and Laughing Lashes in the Irish Oaks last month.

But I wonder if Blue Bunting is quite as good as that bare result suggests.

To my mind, Blue Bunting picked up the pieces under unusually testing conditions after the leaders had quickened better than her approaching the final furlong at the Curragh.

Wonder Of Wonders went like the better filly at Epsom even allowing that Frankie set his filly a lot to do and I'm content to oppose Blue Bunting for small stakes in the win market with more on her to be out of the first three at much shorter odds in a race where seven of the nine runners have clear place claims.


Gamilati the safe option in a strong Lowther

Dettoriand Godolphin will hopefully be out of luck with Blue Bunting but I reckon they have better prospects earlier on day two when Gamilati lines up for the Lowther Stakes at 14:30.

This Bernardini filly took a major step forward when unleashing a telling turn of foot to land Newmarket's Cherry Hinton Stakes last month and another look at the replay of that race suggests she has bright prospects of confirming the form with Shumoos and Inetrobil despite a 3lb penalty.

Fire Lily looks the one for a saver based on her emphatic success in Group 3 company at the Curragh, while Angels Will Fall has to be respected after showing a sharp turn of foot to land Ascot's princess Margaret Stakes.

However, I'm not so confident about Best Terms and Richard Hannon's filly offers some place lay mileage given that she looks to have more to find under a penalty for her narrow defeat of Shumoos in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.


Bogart and Coco to star on the day two undercard

The other two horses I'm keen on this Thursday are from differing ends of the form spectrum.

First up is Bogart in the DBS Premier Yearling Stakes at 14:00. Nominating Kevin Ryan's colt in such a hot race against proven pattern race performers like Crown Dependency does involve a leap of faith, but Bogart looked a smart prospect when forging clear on his Ayr debut and shaped way better than the bare result suggests when seventh in Goodwood's Champagne Stakes.

Inexperience caused Bogart to drift noticeably right from two out at Goodwood. But the way he tanked along prior to that marks him out as a live one at a working man's price here.

The odds about Wild Coco winning the Galtres Stakes at 16:15 will be much shorter, but that doesn't mean she isn't of interest.

Sir Henry Cecil's filly is a big, lengthy stayer who seemed all at sea on fast ground at Goodwood on her latest start.

I'm happy to forgive that to focus on her gutsy defeat of the very smart subsequent winner Meeznah on good to soft ground at Newmarket earlier in July.

That is much the most persuasive piece of form on offer here and Wild Coco will be very hard to beat indeed if she reproduces it on a track which will suit her much better than Goodwood.


Recommended Bets

Back Crystal Cappella and Wonder Of Wonders in the 15:40 at York
Lay Blue Bunting in the 15:40 at York
Back Bogart in the 14:00 at York
Back Gamilati and lay Best terms for a place in the 14:30 at York
Back Wild Coco in the 16:15 at York


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