TimeformBlog

If you can't have the ace then a king and a queen will do nicely. Frankel misses York this week, but Twice Over and Midday give his veteran handler Sir Henry Cecil a powerful hand against exciting Irish raider Await The Dawn in the International. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham feels the favourite might have to work hard on day one of the Ebor Festival.


Seville ripe for Voltigeur success

It's the age old question of performance against potential in the International Stakes at , with Midday and Twice over boasting almost 30 Group 1 outings between them and the hot favourite Await The Dawn precisely none.

As so often happens, the Betfair market is leaning hard in favour of untapped potential, with Await The Dawn trading at 1.87 on the back of a runaway Chester win and an emphatic Royal Ascot defeat of two horses who franked the form handsomely at Goodwood recently.

My gut feeling is that Aiden O'Brien's colt might well be improving fast enough to beat two very solid rivals, but the market takes full account of that scope for further progress and it's probably best to look elsewhere in search of better value options.

And the first of those options is Seville in the Great Voltigeur at 15:05. Once again, this is a case of proven form against untapped potential. But Seville is a Group 1 colt in a Group 2 race and the form he showed to finish second in the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris makes him a standout at these weights.

Sea Moon is clearly on the up based on his handicap win here while Namibian is thriving physically and battle hardened after gutsy wins at Ascot and Goodwood.

However, Seville has 5lb and more in hand on Timeform ratings and the form of his Longchamp second behind the exciting Meandre was franked when fourth placed Treasure Beach won the Secretariat Stakes in Chicago on Saturday.

In short, he will be mighty hard to beat here on his way to a probable tilt at the St Leger and 2.3 is a very fair price indeed.


Brook far from Barren at a big price in finale

Cracking big handicaps at York is seldom straightforward and Wednesday's finale at 16:50 will be tough with the totally unexposed Newmarket winner Eagles Peak and fellow improver Ithoughtitwasover lining up with very persuasive claims.

However, with that pair cornering a sizeable chunk of the market there could be some win and place value about Barren Brook at much longer odds.

This gelding has several points in his favour here. First, he's a proven York performer trained by a man who has already had seven winners on the Knavesmire this season.

Second, he has Kieren Fallon aboard for the first time.

And third, Barren Brook lines up fresh from a career best win at Doncaster where he quickened smartly from well off the pace before idling close home. A 3lb rise for that win looks fair and Barren Brook looks a definite player at double figure odds.


Ritual has more on than the market suggests

Several names suggested themselves as possible lay material on day one at York but Ritual makes more appeal than most as one to take on in the place market for the opener at 14:00.

The fact that this gelding has four wins from six starts and messrs Noseda and Dettori against his name will ensure he attracts trade, but look a little deeper and it transpires that he doesn't seem well treated off a BHA mark of 90 for winning a middling Sandown handicap.

Add in a stinker of a run when favourite at Ascot last time and a potentially tricky draw in stall 17 and Ritual looks easy enough to oppose in the place market at 3.5 or thereabouts.


Blanc could be all white at Nottingham now Buick is aboard

Concentrating on the big races during Festivals is always tempting but doing so runs the risk of missing value options on less heralded cards.

And Blanc De Chine is certainly worth a second look in Nottingham's opener at 13:50.

Granted, this filly faded when well fancied at Sandown last time, but her Bath debut was promising and the speed she showed to bang heads with some very smart juveniles for a long way in Newbury's Super Sprint remains vivid in the memory.

William Buick is booked to ride for the first time here and it's far too early to be writing Blanc De Chine off as a potential maiden winner.

Indeed, her best form gives her a clear chance on these terms and if Buick lets her roll along from a high draw it's easy to envisage her pre-race odds coming tumbling down by the halfway stage.


Recommended Bets

Best Bets: Seville in the 15:05 at York
Barren Brook win and place in the 16:50 at York
Best Lay: Ritual for a place in the 14:00 at York
Best Away Bet: Blanc De Chene (back to lay) in the 13:50 at Nottingham


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