TimeformBlog

Cyfor Malta, Fondmort, Celestial Gold, Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, L'Antartique, Imperial Commander, Tranquil Sea. Not just any list of leading chasers this century, but the roll of honour for this Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, and Dan Barber seeks to unearth the next potential star this time around.


The betting for this year's Paddy Power is very reminiscent of the ante-post market ahead of the 2005 renewal, with the prices suggesting it's little bigger than even money that either Long Run or Great Endeavour will leave Cheltenham with their name carved alongside some of the modern greats. Six years ago it was Our Vic and Monkerhostin vs the field, and the 'tricast' in that order duly followed, but there are clear reasons this time around to suggest it's not so clear-cut as the betting might suggest.

The first question to be asked is a simple one. All things being equal, would one of the duo win just about one in every two runnings?

On Timeform ratings, and in my own mind as a punter, the answer is more than a cautious 'no', given this year's renewal is packed with other unexposed rivals, which arguably wasn't the case the year Our Vic and Monkerhostin endured their pre- and in-race scrap.

Long Run's reputation preceded him on his arrival from France, and the aura of a potential superstar still very much remains. But do any of his performances on the track warrant such a billing? He was receiving 7 lb from Tazbar when scooting up in the Feltham as a novice, under conditions that surely favoured him more than the runner-up, and his subsequent Kingmaker success amounted to a mere 17 lb beating of Timeform's very own Joe Jo Star; 'Joe Jo' was as tough and genuine a horse as could be imagined, but would I take 4/1 about him to win a Paddy Power from a mark of 141?.

Call me negative, but the answer is again a resounding 'no'. And what's more, with fence-sitting diplomacy out of the window for a moment, the presence of his regular amateur rider clearly isn't a help to Long Run's chance, either.

There's less wrong with Great Endeavour. He's an upwardly-mobile chaser who still hasn't had many goes in handicaps, and he showed the track suits him well when winning the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival in March. Plus, anything with 'Pipe' alongside its name in the racecard for the Paddy Power tends to warrant the utmost respect. But there's no way he should be around 4/1 when Sunnyhillboy, relatively lightly raced also and weighted to beat Great Endeavour on their meeting at Cheltenham, is approaching double-figure odds.

Sunnyhillboy presumably had his whole 2009/10 campaign geared towards Cheltenham in hindsight, and but for the equally unexposed Pipe runner he'd have carried off the plan to perfection, so take anything bigger than 8.2 about him coming to the boil at this track again as he seeks to provide Jonjo O'Neill with a second winner in this race in the last five years after Exotic Dancer's 2006 success.

Big names like Poquelin and Mad Max are also prominent in the betting, but both would suddenly need to be top-class or thereabouts to defy respective marks of 164 and 157, the former fully a stone higher than when beaten into second last term and the latter handicapped on his misleading defeat of a below-par Somersby at Aintree in the spring.

A better (and final) play lies with Irish raider Catch Me, who's currently trading at a very generous 9.2 on Betfair. It wasn't too long ago that Catch Me racked up four wins at graded level over hurdles, which instantly makes him of interest from a lower chasing mark, and it's not as if he hasn't taken to chasing in only four starts.

Granted, Catch Me has a fall on his record, but he jumped soundly when third behind leading novices Pandorama and Weapons Amnesty in a Grade 1 at Punchestown in the spring and didn't make any errors when very much catching the eye in filling the same position in the Poplar Chase at Naas on his return, a race his stable won last year with Tranquil Sea en route to landing the Paddy Power.

In short, Sunnyhillboy should be more like a 7.0 chance and Catch Me about the same or shorter, and if a certain well-regarded ex-French chaser comes home in front then it may be time for this writer to take a long run, possibly down a short pier.


(read more at betting.betfair.com)