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The Perfect Soccer Betting System

But what the hell, eh?

05 Aug 11 10:54
TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 414,41
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 213,76
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $179,46
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 707,10
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$72,64
       
Total Funds:         $4 734,99

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A crappy day for Mr.Kelly yesterday. He went 1/5 and went down -$274. I also got pummelled, going 2/4 for a -$29 loss. Only Longshot Larry hit any profit yesterday, he was only around to lay 3 bets, winning all of them for a $7 gain. Always a crazed smile on that guy's face!


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The markets are in fear mode at the moment, so the Demon is starting to buy, buy,buy. (Remember, all of these purchases of stocks and bonds are from profits from horseracing lay betting since December on this blog. I have only used profits from my betting to generate more profits in stocks and bonds...). The Demon has no profit at the moment because he has been busy buying stocks and the market has been dropping. Keynes once famously said the the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. What he meant was that most investors can't keep buying and buying as the market drops and drops because at some point they run out of money and have to give up and cut their losses.

Shannon's Demon never runs out of money (in theory, anyway). It can be as liquid as the market is irrational, and can stand in there as long as it takes. That's not a problem for him. The Demon will buy and buy and buy in exactly the right amounts that will preseve his bank as the market drops. One day the markets will recover and the Demon will enjoy great profits....and then he will begin selling it as the market overreacts on the way up in a buying frenzy (like in 1999).

One point about my Demon. If you set up a demon to buy stocks you are playing with a time horizon of many years. For the purposes of this blog, I should perhaps have set up a demon only using cash and bonds, because the time-scale of the blog is to reach Florida within a year. Such a short time-scale normally means investors should be looking at bonds and cash, not stocks,  because they are a much better short-term investment (risk-wise) than stocks.  That means that I don't have years and years to wait for the Demon to generate stock profits. But what the hell, eh?



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My good friend, GreenGiant has also been stomping around the Sit and Go 10-handed tournaments, crushing most that stood in his way and keeping the flow of green going the right way. Yesterday, the big green guy had 1 win and 1 third, hitting the money 2 out of 4 times.

Poker is a great way to build a bankroll from nearly nothing.My bankroll is now up to $257 by following a simple tournament strategy that grinds our steady profits over time. It's a big myth that you need to be really smart to win at poker. Nope. You just need to follow a long-term strategy and have iron disciple (just like laying horses on Betfair).  There is certainly big money to be made down the road. The great thing is that you can keep scaling this up to higher and higher levels, although that edge is sure to drop as you move up against tougher opponents!

Just keep your buy-ins at 1-2% of your bank, and follow a simple strategy so you don't need to think at all. Play a few SNG tournaments each day and your bankroll over time will grow. Enter higher tournaments as your bankroll increases.

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the fund is back over $5K

04 Aug 11 13:54
TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 443,84
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 489,54
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $172,45
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 725,39
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$54,35
       
Total Funds:         $5 051,48

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Well, the fund is back over $5K after a solid day of betting from Mr. Kelly. The Perfect Gambler went a perfect 4/4 for a profit of $284,45. Larry and I were not big factors: I went 1/3 for a -$41,69 loss and Larry wasn't around at all.
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I have begun a small-stakes poker recently, using my unlocked bonus. I'm keeping stats and the results have been good so far. I play my system as GreenGiant11. Simple, logical poker is what I am into, combined with some sound bankroll management.

Total Events    Top50%    InTheMoney    ITM%    Top 50%    Total Stake    Total Profit    Profit%
11    9    5    45,45%    81,82%    $14,70    $21,80    48,30%

If The Giant can keep it up for awhile I may invite him to join the Florida team. We'll have to see how he does over 100+ events.
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 468,21
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 307,96
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $168,13
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 740,58
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$39,16
       
Total Funds:         $4 905,14
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Not much to report on for betting yesterday, with a limited day. I went 0/2 for a loss of -$98,02, while Mr.Kelly went 1/2 for a slight gain of $19,36. Longshot Larry showed up for work and went 2/2 for again of $4,02.

I am not betting enough to keep up with my model. We all need to make more bets per month or else I will have to adjust or abandon my model and plans to get to Florida by December. It's not looking good right now unless I can get my number of bets up and the total liability per month. But remember, Mr. Kelly and Longshot Larry can be extremely volatile. One big hot streak can expand their banks dramatically and that's what we are waiting for.
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I cleared my poker bonus yesterday which I have been playing like crazy for 2 weeks. Time to take a break and get back to Betfair laying! I ended up almost 15% down, which is about what I expected considering I played 1200 hands and broke even on the poker itself. It is the rake which gets you!
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Shannon's Demon made a purchase of stocks yesterday. The markets have been going down recently, so the demon has become interested and has sent BUY signals. The problem so far is that the demon has been too small to make even minimum buy and sell orders, although yesterday was the first day it came close ($30 is the minimum order). The Demon has to be content with a rebalanced drip-feeding for now (adding more stocks than bonds to balance the Demon). Anyway, for anyone interested, the Demon is sending a BUY signal for the market now, in the amount of 1% of the total bank. I'll update the demonic results soon.
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 566,23
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 288,60
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $164,11
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 746,29
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$33,45
       
Total Funds:         $4 985,49
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Well, July is over. No betting yesterday. Mr. Kelly was active on Friday and Saturday. He is currently on a 9-game winning streak, racking up $495,03. I am also on a modest 4-game winning streak for $72,21.
I have updated the chart to get an idea of the progress we are making towards our goal.

So far, 7 months of betting, 1362 bets, $53,000 has been slammed down in bets for a return of nearly $5,000. Mr. Kelly never said it was going to be easy, but it shows you what is possible by straight one-way betting if you are willing to stick with it for the long haul.

It's time top look around Florida and see what I can find in the 5K range ... maybe a trailer park special...

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Only another 150 hands left to play to unlock my poker bonus I have been playing for 2 weeks or so. My bank has dropped 10% over 1050 hands, so it seems clear to me that unfortunatly my straight Nash-equilibrium heads-up strategy will have to be adjusted to make it a biut more profitable, enough to clear the rake anyway. I'm mulling it over. Anyway, it is good enough to clear this bonus without losing too much.
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 526,03
TheSnapper's Start Bank:     $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 849,57
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $171,63
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:     $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 780,54
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         $0,80
       
Total Funds:         $4 548,03

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I had a quiet day yesterday, going 4/6 for a $28 gain. Longshot Larry also slammed 4/4 for $8,14 profit. Larry is currently on an 8-straight streak. Mr. Kelly got knocked back yesterday, winning 4/7 but dropping -$144,82.
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A close up of Longshot Larry's stats



Larry likes laying outsiders. His theory is that the betting market overprices outsiders and underprices favourites, contrary to what most punters believe. So, he lays them instead of backing them.

He is laying one horse per race which is the closest to the bookies odds before the off. Very often, these are steamers who have dropped in price and have attracted the fancy of the betting market (for whatever reason). Larry doesn't care very much about the horses or the form, just the final price.

Larry's results are interesting. (He is using a 3/4 Kelly stake adjusted after each runner, based on a 5% layer's edge...)Take note of the level stakes edge%.

Total Bets    Wins    Losses    Points Lost    Total Points Profit    Level Stakes Edge%    Total Stake    Total Profit    Stake Edge%
257    223    34    185,00    38,00    14,79%    $732,60    $66,78    9,12%


Larry's problem is that when he loses, he loses BIG. He can have 14 straight wins wiped out by one 15.0 runner storming home. It is really a game of "snakes and laddders" for old Larry.

One the bright side, Larry can rack up some staggering winning streaks...and this is why Mr.Kelly is particularly fond of Longshot Larry. He has had runs of 23, 20, 18 and 17 and other straight wins just in the past 257 bets. The guy is almost always on a winning streak and when he is winning, he is betting more. His ratchet moves up when he hits an all-time high to control his bank.

Personally, I think Larry will succeed over the long haul. I like the guy. He is almost always winning, he has an air of optimism and a happy smile on his face most of the time.He will have some very big ups and some very big downs, but check back in a few months and see where he is at. He could be the biggest star on this thread, and the first one into the pool in Florida!
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it's coming...wait for it

28 Jul 11 08:27
TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 497,70
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 994,39
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $163,49
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 782,01
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         $2,27
       
Total Funds:         $4 657,85
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Another limited day of betting yesterday as July winds to an end. Everyone was undefeated yesterday, i went 1/1 for $15 profit, Mr. Kelly was 1/1 for $57,95 and Longshot Larry showed up for a 3/3 day and a $5,19 profit.

I was looking back and I see that Mr. Kelly started the month with $2 177,18. His bank stands at $2 994,39 today, so even though I thought it was a poor month, in fact Mr. Kelly has actually ground out a gain of $817,21 for the month, so it wasn't as bad as I thought, even though he has not hit a decent winning streak for a long time....it's coming...wait for it.

His ratchet is still set at $1905,30 and he is using an active bank of $1 089,09 so he still has to earn $900 before he can move his ratchet up again (and withdraw any money).
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I also was banging away at poker. I have less than 900 hands left to go to clear my bonus. I am still breaking even using my simple coin-flipping Nash strategy, so that is just fine with me. I have been thinking about adding Mr.Nash to the team as a poker addition to the team. I think I will wait to clear the bonus first and see how it goes.

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a beautiful system

27 Jul 11 08:10
TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 482,70
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 936,44
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $158,30
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 780,54
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         $0,80
       
Total Funds:         $4 578,24
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Very limited day yesterday,as today will also be. Too busy to do any betting! Mr,Kelly went 1/1 for a gain of $52,73. Longshot Larry showed up and got nailed for a -$15,58 loss with 2/3 wins but laying a 9.0 runner. I didn't bet at all...I did find some time to play poker later and I now need only less than 1,000 hands to clear my bonus. I am actually in a slight profit after 200+ hands, so my poker system is working fine.

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John Nash

John Nash was the American mathematician the film "A Beautiful Mind" was based on. Why he is important to poker players and other gamblers is that his mathematical formula precisely defines the best moves for poker players (and other similar games of negotiation). The idea is that a crappy poker player, like myself, can make himself "unexploitable" (i.e. can't get his ass kicked) by better or lucky players by simply sticking to a simple aggressive strategy which John Nash worked out. There's nothing your opponent can do against it, except to also play using the same Nash strategy because if he tries anything else, he will lose his chips to you over time. It is a beautiful system from a beautiful mind. Check it out.
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Repeat ad nauseum...

26 Jul 11 08:46
TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 482,70
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 883,71
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $173,88
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 782,16
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         $2,42
       
Total Funds:         $4 542,71
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Mr.Kelly took it on the chin a bit yesterday, going 4/8 and going down another -$162. Grim times for the big guy. In fact, a bad month overall. Is he worried? Nope. He's just waiting for his next winning streak. His best streak this month has been a paltry 7 in a row for $404.
I moved ahead with a $30 gain, going 4/6.
Longshot Larry didn't show up for work yesterday.

POKER
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Just as well...I have been playing some poker these days. Straight heads up, one-on-one. I am trying to play 1200 hands to unlock a bonus. So far, I have 1100 hands left to play and I am breaking even so far, which is all I need. I employ a simple poker system, which is basically that I only bet when the odds are in my favour. I only bluff in one certain situation and I jam everything when I get low on chips. It's very hard to defeat this system, (it's what we poker players call "unexploitable"), but I am not certain that it would be profitable enough to beat the house rake over time. But it should be good enough to clear the bonus, which I should be able to complete within a week or so. Given the vast number of on-line casinos, a $1000 SIGN-UP bonus could be cleared within a week or two, this means that you could repeat this about twice a month... You could then re-use this profit to enter into larger sign-up bonuses (compounding your profits). I don't know what the largest sign-up bonuses offered are (there are so many), but many are larger than $2000. You would probably eventually run out of casinos to play in, but by that time you could, in theory, run up very large profits from your original $100 sign up bonus by compounding everything.Of course, you will have to play an awful lot of poker! Several hours a day, day after day....

Anyway, it's probably worth a try starting from a $50 or $100 sign-up offer. Treat it like a long-term project, compound your profits and take your money and run as soon as you clear the bonus! Repeat ad nauseum...
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 450,80
TheSnapper's Start Bank:     $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 045,89
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $173,88
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:     $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 769,05
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$10,69
       
Total Funds:         $4 659,88
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A quiet weekend, not much accomplished in terms of gambling. Mr.Kelly went 7/10 for a $30 profit. I went 5/9 for a -$104 loss. Longshot Larry was a rather limited 2/2 for a $4 profit.
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Tracking Mr.Kelly's stats:

Total Bets    Wins    Losses    Total Points Profit    Edge%    Total Stake    Total Pofit    ROI%
650    451    199    128,65    19,79%    $32 035,44    $2 934,06    9,16%

Hmmmn...now I have something to ponder. Mr.Kelly has been rolling along at a solid 19% profit at level stakes over the past 650 bets. His Kelly staking levels are set for a 10% edge. The stats say that he should move his Kelly Stakes up to 19% to fully maximize his edge. However, his edge according to the stakes he has bet indicate that this edge is only 9%, which gives the contradictory indication that his current Kelly Stake of 10% is too high.
So, I'll just leave it for now and continue to collect data and see how it goes.
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The ratchet

22 Jul 11 09:58
TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 545,23
TheSnapper's Start Bank:     $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 111,10
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $169,56
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:     $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 777,20
initial investment:        $1 779,94
profit:                 -$2,54
       
[b]Total Funds:         $4 823,35

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A big day yesterday for Mr.,Kelly and I. Longshot Larry had the day off yesterday as between the betting and the poker and other stuff going on it was getting just too busy even for me! I was 3/4 for $33 profit and the big guy went a solid 5/5 for $274,64 profit. So, it was a (very welcome) $300 profit day yesterday for the bank.

There have been a few questions about the ratchet, so let me just say a few words about it now.
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The ratchet

Take your betting fund and cut it in half. So, if you have $1000, then your ratchet should be at $500. You now have $500 to bet with. YOu use $500 as your stake for your Kelly bets. YOu take the other $500 and invest it. YOu want to achieve 10-20% profit per year with it and compound that using Shannon's Demon (see my other posts about that). Let's say you win $100. Your bank is now $1100. Your ratchet is now moved to half of your bank, so $550. YOu withdraw $50 from your staking fund and put it in your investments. You are now using $550 for your Kelly bets and you have $550 invested safely away from Betfair.

Let's say you lose. You lose $200. Too bad. Your stakes should be now reduced to smaller levels based on $350. YOu still have $550 invested elsewhere. The point is that your ratchet protects your total bank and gives you a line which your kelly betting cannot cross. Money beyond this "event horizon" is outside of your betting universe and should be put to work in stocks, bonds and other capital investments to continue growing. The profits from betting flow ONE-WAY into this investment account. The ratchet continues moving up each time your bank hits a new high. I believe that my ratchet plan along with disciplined Kelly staking will result in better than level-stakes profits and lead to long-term success at gambling and investing (the two are the same thing, in my view). My results speak for themselves.

I hope that helps.
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