TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 849,57
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
Longshot Larry's Bank: $171,63
Longshot Larry's Start Bank: $100,00
Shannon's Demon: $1 780,54
initial investment: $1 779,74
profit: $0,80
Total Funds: $4 548,03
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I had a quiet day yesterday, going 4/6 for a $28 gain. Longshot Larry also slammed 4/4 for $8,14 profit. Larry is currently on an 8-straight streak. Mr. Kelly got knocked back yesterday, winning 4/7 but dropping -$144,82.
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A close up of Longshot Larry's stats
Larry likes laying outsiders. His theory is that the betting market overprices outsiders and underprices favourites, contrary to what most punters believe. So, he lays them instead of backing them.
He is laying one horse per race which is the closest to the bookies odds before the off. Very often, these are steamers who have dropped in price and have attracted the fancy of the betting market (for whatever reason). Larry doesn't care very much about the horses or the form, just the final price.
Larry's results are interesting. (He is using a 3/4 Kelly stake adjusted after each runner, based on a 5% layer's edge...)Take note of the level stakes edge%.
Total Bets Wins Losses Points Lost Total Points Profit Level Stakes Edge% Total Stake Total Profit Stake Edge%
257 223 34 185,00 38,00 14,79% $732,60 $66,78 9,12%
Larry's problem is that when he loses, he loses BIG. He can have 14 straight wins wiped out by one 15.0 runner storming home. It is really a game of "snakes and laddders" for old Larry.
One the bright side, Larry can rack up some staggering winning streaks...and this is why Mr.Kelly is particularly fond of Longshot Larry. He has had runs of 23, 20, 18 and 17 and other straight wins just in the past 257 bets. The guy is almost always on a winning streak and when he is winning, he is betting more. His ratchet moves up when he hits an all-time high to control his bank.
Personally, I think Larry will succeed over the long haul. I like the guy. He is almost always winning, he has an air of optimism and a happy smile on his face most of the time.He will have some very big ups and some very big downs, but check back in a few months and see where he is at. He could be the biggest star on this thread, and the first one into the pool in Florida!