TheSnapper

    Current Bank        Start Bank
TheSnapper    $578,79        $198,00
Mr.Kelly    $522,42        $20,00
Soccer     $325,76       
MrQ's Tips    $80,10       
Horses    $256,00       
Other Sports    $293,79       
Reserves    $1 018,78       
           
Total Funds    $3 293,64        $218,00

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The bot picked up a profit of $17,77 yesterday working in 27 markets. The profits have been added to the stakes and the stakes have been moved up to $42,60.

The idea is to compound these profits and keep steadily increasing that profit.

The stats for October in the horse markets for TheSnapper's horseracing bot are:
Markets:66
Profit: $46,79

I am pleased with it so far, because I am not around in the afternoons to watch horseracing. I let the bot do all the betting for me according to the startegy. I'll talk about this strategy later when I have more time.

    Current Bank        Start Bank
TheSnapper    $544,73        $198,00
Mr.Kelly    $530,22        $20,00
Soccer     $327,43        $320,00
MrQ's Tips    $80,10       
Horses    $256,00        $300,00
Other Sports    $299,83       
Reserves    $1 018,78       
           
Total Funds    $3 063,21       
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No action for Mr.Kelly yesterday, but my bots picked up some cash with a few weird selections. The bot layed a dart thrower named Justin Pipe who missed the dart board a few times and earned me a profit of     $8,46. Then the bots layed a soccer team called St.Patricks, who couldn't get the job done for another $8,82.
So, the bot banks have their stakes increased for today's action. Compounding...
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    Current Bank        Start Bank
TheSnapper    $545,83        $198,00
Mr.Kelly    $530,22        $20,00
Soccer     $320,79        $320,00
MrQ's Tips    $80,10        $100,00
Horses    $256,00        $300,00
Other Sports    $291,37        $300,00
Reserves    $1 018,78       
           
Total Funds    $3 049,21        $1 024,90
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Mr. Kelly had a solid weekend. He won 17/20 bets and made a profit of $60,76 from a stake of $187,72. So, his comeback continues...

I have been sidelined from the horse place markets due to time problems, but I spent some time thinking about it this weekend and digging into some stats. I came up with a way to bet on the horses using my bot in a way that I can place the bets and leave the computer running and have the bot fire in the bets for me. So, I can still use my $545 bank and see if I can get it going upwards. That said, you have to remember that a bot is only as good as the strategy behind it.

So, I am hopeful that this month will get back on track. I'd like to welcome Mr.Q. who has been providing some tips on sport bets. I've added this small bank and I am using Kelly staking to see if it can compound into a big bank sometime down the road. So far, we are under a bit of water, but the day is long...

Stay tuned!
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    Current Bank
TheSnapper    $532,60
Mr.Kelly    $494,86
Soccer Funds    $460,68
NFL    $317,03
MLB    $227,56
Steamers    $149,51
Reserves    $1 023,64
   
Total Funds    $3 207,14
   
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Quick update. Not much action yesterday.The steamers yesterday were as follows:
Runner    Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Sparta Rotterdam    $3,40    1,60    $2,09    -$2,09
Regal Acclaim    $3,20    2,88    $6,02    $3,20
Mistress of Rome    $6,63    1,71    $4,71    -$4,71
Russian War    $3,38    2,10    $3,72    $3,38
Barista     $3,32    2,90    $6,31    $3,32
BMunich    $4,60    1,78    $3,59    -$3,59

Mr. Kelly was out of action and MLB was 0/2.
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    Current Bank        Start Bank
TheSnapper    $532,60        $198,00
Mr.Kelly    $494,86        $20,00
Soccer Funds    $463,83        $450,00
NFL    $317,03        $300,00
MLB    $227,56        $200,00
Steamers    $147,91        $150,00
Reserves    $1 010,25       
           
Total Funds    $3 208,69        $1 024,90

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I have been busy making some big changes to the betting banks over the weekend. Due to some changes in my work schedule, I won't be able to monitor the afternoon racing. That's bad news for me and Mr.Kelly since I need to see the prices close to the off. It means that we will only be able to make bets on some weekends and occasionally for some night races. Basically, we are going to be sharply cut back. It's too bad, because Mr.Kelly was mounting a solid comeback and my own betting was solidly in profit, grinding away at an overall 5-10% return.

So, I thought about what I can do. I decided to take $1100 of the profits from TheSnapper bank and set up 4 smaller banks to make lay bets that I won't have to monitor. They will be "fire-and-forget" bets, because I won't be around to watch. The different banks all place lay bets on the lowest priced teams I can find. The funds have started to work since Sunday and are in profit. Each fund is set up the same. I assume a 5% edge and apply full-Kelly stakes across a range of prices up to 2.00. The banks are split into 2, with a half-bank and a staking bank. Dividends are paid out as half the daily profit to the Shannon's Demon Reserve Bank, which is withdrawn from Betfair and invested.

The Steamers is an interesting bank I have set up for ad-hoc bets on many different sports. I will just lay any upcoming event which is listed in Oddschecker as a steamer, at odds under 2.00 and ask for the best bookie odds. I don't know how it will work out, but I will be able to continue Kelly Staking in independent banks. Hopefully a few of them will hit a few winning streaks and mutate into monsters and getme to Florida.

My thinking is that the value lays in consistent contrarian betting -- betting against what the market thinks. My strategy is simple, lay over-bet prices, place single bets and compound profits. It will be interesting which of the banks will show a profit. It's a competition of sorts. Darwinian betting strategy at it's finest.

TheSnapper    $1 655,70
Mr.Kelly    $478,52
Soccer Funds    $186,47
Reserves    $1 043,16
Total Funds    $3 345,59
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Mr, Kelly went on a rampage yesterday, winning 8 straight lays for a gain of $46,72. He has now won 9 in a row. His stake has moved up to $178,52.

I had a weak day. 8/17 for a loss of -$24,77. My daily fixed stake has moved down to $8,28.

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Soccer picked up $9,38 on a stake of $15,53 winning 4/5 bets.
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TheSnapper    $1 680,47
Mr.Kelly    $431,80
Soccer Funds    $184,49
   
Reserves    $1 078,22
Total Funds    $3 321,66
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I had a nice day on the nags yesterday. I went 5/7 for a gain of $21,97. My stakes have now moved up to $8,40.

Mr. Kelly went 1/3 for a loss of $7,31. His betting stake is now based on $131,80.

In soccer, I got drilled for 4 losses.
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Betting Bank Structure

Good bank management is really important. My bank is simple, but effective. Divide your bank into two. One half is kept as a reserve. One half as a betting bank. Your stake is based on a percentage of the betting half-bank, not of the whole bank. When you make profits, put half of it in the reserve bank and half into the staking bank.

This way will ensure that you never go broke and you will always have a solid reserve which you can keep away from Betfair. Another good idea is to invest these reserve funds, compounding your betting profits as you go.You should be making steady withdrawals from Betfair to your reserve.

Although your half-bank will go up and down, your reserve will always be there and should be (hopefully) growing over time.

A further advantage is that if your half-bank gets run right down to practically nothing, you can wait for interest on your invested reserves to provide you with more funds for your half-bank. In theory, you can continue gambling forever this way (although if you blow your half-bank you better look around for another edge!)Even if you are winning, you can add profits from your reserve bank to your half-bank and "pump up" your stakes. Either way, it can help you i fyou are winning or losing.

TheSnapper    $1 658,50
Mr.Kelly    $439,11
Soccer Funds    $208,92
Reserves    $1 047,94
Total Funds    $3 331,43
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A solid day yesterday for both me and Mr.Kelly. I went 8/12 for a $33.91 profit and Mr.Kelly hit 5/7 for $5,12 profit.

My stakes have increased now to $8,29 and Mr.Kelly's staking bank is now up to $139,11,

My soccer fund also benefited from Ipswich's win last night for a small profit. The soccer fund actually is made up of 4 small betting banks (Home, Away and Draw bets along with a fund called Mr.Q's tips)

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I also made my first dividend payment for awhile yesterday to my reserves ($20). The daily dividend payment is simply up to half of the daily profits withdrawn to the reserves for investment outside of Betfair. You don't need to keep all of your funds in Betfair. Never leave all of your funds in one place!

TheSnapper    $1 624,59       
Mr.Kelly    $433,99       
Soccer Funds    $201,83       
Reserves    $1 074,75       
Total Funds    $3 285,31
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A good day yesterday for me, I went 10/15 on  my beloved horses for a gain of $27,38. My stakes are now moved up to $8,12.

Mr. Kelly has also started to win again. He hit 7/11 for a gain of $6,43, His stake has moved up to $133,99.

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Start small and compound to become large and grind.

Let's say you set your goal to make a steady source of income from sports betting. Maybe even enough to live on. Let's say you want to earn $5,000 per month which is $60,000 per year. Certainly not riches, but enough to get by or live rather well in most of the world.

There are only 2 ways to do this. One way is to calculate backwards how much you will need to bet each day to earn that much each month. To earn $5,000, assuming you have a 10% edge means that you will have to bet $50,000 per month. That's at least $1,600 per day. (That could be at least $3,000 per day if you are paying 5% commission). If you assume that each bet you are making is a (very) conservative 2% (Mr.Kelly would be calling for 20%!) of your bank per bet as a stake, that would mean that your bank size should be over $80,000 to be able to withstand the inevitable bad runs.

In my view, it is nearly suicidal for a normal person to launch into betting by slamming down $1,6000+ bets per day like this, and unusual for most people to have a spare $80,000 laying around that they suddenly seize upon the idea of launching a sports betting career with.

The second way to be a sports better is to build a bank from a small size up to that $80,000. The advantage is that any small size bank can be grown into a much larger bank. Even $20 is good enough. A $20 bank, can grow into $1000 in less than 50 bets with a 10% edge. The secret to this is by using compounding. Without using compounding, however, a $20 stake will be only worth $100 after 50 bets and a 10% edge.

It just seems to me that what kills a lot of punters is poor bank management and poor math. Start small and compound. Once your bank is big enough, then you can do the large bank grinding of a pro.

TheSnapper    $1 598,48
Mr.Kelly    $478,20
Soccer      $200,00
Reserves    $1 067,22
   
Total Funds    $3 301,58
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No action for Mr. Kelly yesterday, as I left his USB plug in a different computer. I was busy, however, winning 10/15 bets for a gain of $6,43. My stake has now moved up to $7,99 for today....compounding those small profits into large profits!

My stats for the month are:
Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge    Edge by Stake
273    182    66,67%    $1 131,03    $98,48    13,01    4,77%    8,71%

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I've added a bank for soccer trading and betting ideas, which I will be using in the future. I haven't used it yet, but I will update it as I go
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There will be no more changes to my betting system or staking now. I am happy with the way it is set up and I am looking forward to getting on with my compounding strategy. Now, it will just be a straight grind session...Here is a quick review of my two banks:

TheSnapper -- a fixed 1% of half-bank stake. Re-calculated daily. Laying horses in the place market which are good value (usually steamers and fancied outsiders), prices up to 4.0. The other half of my bank is held in reserves, which are invested outside of Betfair and collect interest.

Mr.Kelly -- a fixed Kelly betting stake based on half of his bank, and assuming a 4% edge per bet (based on his stats). His stake size ranges from 0,4% to 12% depending on the price of the horse. This stake is recalculated after each race, with only one selection per race. The other half of his bank is held outside Betfair in investments. Profits from Mr.Kelly will be split between his betting bank and the reserves.

The Reserves -- invested equally in stocks and bonds. Shannon's Demon is an equilibrium strategy which compounds your profits over time. Profits from betting will be sent here for investment, building the reserves.Even if the betting banks get completely exhausted, profits from the reserves can be used to rebuild them and keep betting. This effectively "firewalls" your gambling funds (and liabilities) from your other finances.

I'm closing down everything else to focus on the compounding effect we will need to get to our goal.

Florida, here we come!
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