Forums
Date Joined: 20 Jun 05
view profile
50 people are following this blog
The Perfect Soccer Betting System

"fire-and-forget" bets

27 Sep 11 08:38
    Current Bank        Start Bank
TheSnapper    $532,60        $198,00
Mr.Kelly    $494,86        $20,00
Soccer Funds    $463,83        $450,00
NFL    $317,03        $300,00
MLB    $227,56        $200,00
Steamers    $147,91        $150,00
Reserves    $1 010,25       
           
Total Funds    $3 208,69        $1 024,90

---------------------------------------------------
I have been busy making some big changes to the betting banks over the weekend. Due to some changes in my work schedule, I won't be able to monitor the afternoon racing. That's bad news for me and Mr.Kelly since I need to see the prices close to the off. It means that we will only be able to make bets on some weekends and occasionally for some night races. Basically, we are going to be sharply cut back. It's too bad, because Mr.Kelly was mounting a solid comeback and my own betting was solidly in profit, grinding away at an overall 5-10% return.

So, I thought about what I can do. I decided to take $1100 of the profits from TheSnapper bank and set up 4 smaller banks to make lay bets that I won't have to monitor. They will be "fire-and-forget" bets, because I won't be around to watch. The different banks all place lay bets on the lowest priced teams I can find. The funds have started to work since Sunday and are in profit. Each fund is set up the same. I assume a 5% edge and apply full-Kelly stakes across a range of prices up to 2.00. The banks are split into 2, with a half-bank and a staking bank. Dividends are paid out as half the daily profit to the Shannon's Demon Reserve Bank, which is withdrawn from Betfair and invested.

The Steamers is an interesting bank I have set up for ad-hoc bets on many different sports. I will just lay any upcoming event which is listed in Oddschecker as a steamer, at odds under 2.00 and ask for the best bookie odds. I don't know how it will work out, but I will be able to continue Kelly Staking in independent banks. Hopefully a few of them will hit a few winning streaks and mutate into monsters and getme to Florida.

My thinking is that the value lays in consistent contrarian betting -- betting against what the market thinks. My strategy is simple, lay over-bet prices, place single bets and compound profits. It will be interesting which of the banks will show a profit. It's a competition of sorts. Darwinian betting strategy at it's finest.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 543 views ]
www.betfair.com