TheSnapper

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 101,66( +763,46% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 781,95(+ 13809,75% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00
----------------------------------------------------

Well, I went a dismal 0/3 yesterday and Mr. Kelly went 2/3 for a gain of $89.10
Longshot Larry got smashed in Australia (-$19,01) but stormed back in English and Irish racing (+$26,89), so the lad is doing well enough. He has piled up $56,04 in profits after 108 lay bets against outsiders. He has a fair chances of doubling his bank fairly soon. If he can do that, I'll welcome him aboard the team!

_____________________________________________________

Mr. Kelly hit another all-time high yesterday of $2,902.23 before losing -$120,28 on Petsas Pleasure in the last race of the day. He has built up a solid $680 lead over me now...but look at the profit percentage! My bank started at $198. It is now 7 times larger,not bad at all, but that pales in comparison to the mighty Mr. Kelly...his bank is 138 times larger than when he started.

Ladies and gentlemen...the perfect gambler.

-----------------------------------------------------

People are always writing to me and asking, "Mr. Snapper, aren't you worried about laying steamers? The smart money is on them, don't you know?". Well, let me say this...smart money, hot money, cold money, dumb money, funny money, mug money...what difference does it make in the long run? How the hell can I know who is backing a horse and why? The only thing that matters are the massey stats which I have put up here several times. Sure, some races look dubious, no doubt about it....but my stats keep matching the massey stats, and I keep on winning over time. So what conclusion can you draw about "smart money"? That's right...it isn't always as smart as you think.

(John Kelly was interested in exactly that question. Even if you "knew" the outcome of a race...how much should you wager on it to draw the most benefit from your "tip"?)

Anyway, remember....there are no good or bad horses...only good or bad prices. Prices are the only thing that matter.

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 269,38 (+1043,67% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 692,85(+ 13364,25% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Longshot Larry's Bank: $148,16(+48,16%% pofit)
Longshot Larry's Start Bank: $100

-----------------------------------------------------------
Mr. Kelly hit an all-time high on Saturday at $2 832,62 before he dropped back to $2692,85. He still has that logarithmic look in his eye!


-----------------------------------------------------------

Longshot Larry also has been rolling along, with some impressive win streaks, (20 straight and 17 straight). He hit an all-time high of $167,05 on Saturday. His stats to date are encouraging:



Bets: 89
Wins: 77
Losses: 12
Win%: 86,5%
Total Stake: $252,58
Total Profit: $48,16
Profit%: +19%
Level Stakes profit: +20,55 units
Level Stakes Profit%: +23%

But I told Larry that he had to double his bank before he could join the team and get on the chart, so he has to keep going for awhile during his probation period. He needs to raise another $52.

Larry is , obviously, laying outsiders to lose in the win market. His only criterion is the price of the runner. If it is close enough to the bookies, he lays it. Very simple strategy for a very simple guy. The only twist is that Mr. Kelly is helping him with the staking. He uses half-Kelly staking, and you can see that the compounding is already occurring to his bank.

(I just love that crazed look in his eyes...it makes me laugh to think he is taking money from all those punters who carefully study the racing form all night just to lose their money to a money-crazed moron like Larry! ...But we will see who has the last laugh!)

---------------------------------------------------------

TheSnapper's Bank: $2264,47 (+1043,67% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2443,14(+ 12115,70% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Longshot Larry's Bank: $134,98 (+34,98% pofit)
Longshot Larry's Start Bank: $100

______________________________________________________

A quick update on the race to Florida. The relentless Mr.Kelly has stormed back to take the lead. He has gone 6/7 for a gain of $608,21 since Friday.

Longshot Larry has also been doing well so far: 71 lays and a profit of $34,98. He has a staggering 61 wins and 10 defeats and an 85,9% strike rate and a level stakes profit of 16,55 points. I am going to see if this will help him compound profits at a faster rate than myself and Mr. Kelly. So far, so good, but it is still early days....

-------------------------------------------------------

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 303,50(+1063,38% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1 945,10 (+ 9625,50% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

----------------------------------------------------------

Well, June is almost over so it's time to take stock of the month's betting.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
TheSnapper: Profit: $786,35
Level Stakes Profit (in units): +26,71 units

Mr. Kelly: Profit: -$590,78
Level Stakes Profit (in units): +15,90 units
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmmn. So, I won the month rather easily, but as you can see there is a curious difference between us. Mr. Kelly posted a loss, even though he had a respectable level stakes profit. Take a look at this statistic:

TheSnapper's longest winning streak:  19 wins , $961,75
             longest losing streak: 4 losses, -$406,99

Mr. Kelly's longest winning streak: 6 wins, $474,11
             longest losing streak: 4 losses, -$639,64

So, you can see just how important the winning and losing streaks are for Kelly stakers. Mr. Kelly couldn't string together a big winning streak all month, like he did back in May. A 19-win streak for him in June would have put his bank to over $18,000! Unfortunately, the best he could muster was a measly 6 win streak.

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 336,56(+1080,08% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1 615,31 (+ 7976,55% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

------------------------------------------------------------------

A better day yesterday, I hit 3/3,broke my losing streak and increased my bank 4.6%. Mr. Kelly made a slight profit, going 2/4 for a $5,27 gain.

Today, I would like to introduce my friend Longshot Larry who will join the team. I have asked Larry to help us out by laying the outsiders in horseracing markets.

Longshot Larry




Larry is an old friend of mine who specializes in laying outsiders in horse races. He claims that there is money to be made laying nags at big prices.  The Massey Stats I posted earlier agree with Larry about this, so with time and patience I think Larry should be able to turn a good profit. The twist is that Larry will be using half-Kelly stakes and it will be interesting to see how much faster he can compound profits than Mr. Kelly and I. Since Larry will be laying nags at high prices, it means he will have a very high strike rate, probably over 85%. He should be able to generate some serious compounding...probably better than I can, with my strike rate of 70%.

Anyway, I said, "OK, Larry, I'll give you a shot, but I want results. You need to double your bank within 150 bets or you are out. Mr. Darwin will give you $100, you will need to prove to him that you can succeed, thrive and multiply your bank or you will be wiped out market efficency. I'm sorry that he is so brutal and even cruel, but there is no emotion in this game, no room for feelings. You are either efficient or you are dead (to paraphrase Mr. Darwin a bit)"



(It took me 36 bets and Mr.Kelly 113 bets to double our starting banks, so if he can't beat that,  I'll have Mr. Darwin give him the boot).

Larry will be laying between 7,5% and 35% of his bank on one nag per race.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Longshot Larry is off to a good start:

Runner    Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
               
Griffin  Point    $2,50    19    $45,00    $2,50
Lees Anthem    $2,44    5,1    $10,00    $2,44
Rafaal    $2,62    10    $23,58    $2,62
Hot Sugar    $2,31    4,5    $8,09    -$8,09
First Fast NowMay Be Some Time    $2,55    4,9    $9,95    $2,55
Woop Woop    $2,50    15    $35,00    $2,50
Coolella    $2,57    15    $35,98    $2,57
Scottish Glen    $2,45    12    $26,95    $2,45
Dancing Welcome    $2,81    4,9    $10,96    $2,81
Pytheas    $2,81    9    $22,48    $2,81
Murindo    $2,88    6    $14,40    $2,88
My Brother Sylvest    $2,90    11    $29,00    $2,90
Ubenkor    $3,02    7,6    $19,93    $3,02
Court Red Handed    $3,16    5,9    $15,48    -$15,48
Goodmanyourself    $2,71    4    $8,13    $2,71

So, Longshot Larry has recorded a profit of $11,19 on his start bank of $100 from Mr. Darwin. That is 11,19% profit after 15 bets, so he's on track after 2 days of work. His strike rate is 13/15, or 86%, so that is right where he needs to be.



Good luck Larry!

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 163,06 (+1198,01% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1 610,04 (+ 7950,20% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

----------------------------------------------------
Ouch! My bank went 0/4 for a loss of -15,7%. Mr. Kelly was smashed, losing 3/4 for -25%.

A brutal day, but interesting in its destruction. There must be lows, as well as highs, and there will be losing streaks and bad days. Yeasterday was about as bad as it can be. But the boat is still afloat and I have been through periods like this a few times already. My record losing streak was 6 in a row, and I bounced back soon enough.

My Kelly staking has already cut back my stakes to protect the bank. My stake, for example, for laying  a 2,00 runner has dropped from $64 to $54, a 15% drop.

I talk about the highs and about winning money, but I will also talk about the lows, the losing streaks and losing money. Be under no illusion...gambling has two sides, profit and loss, and you need to master both. Kelly staking is there for you in the good times and protects you in the bad times, like now. It is like a storm, you batten down the hatches, steer for calmer seas and hope it blows over quickly. YOu know it can't go on forever and the sun will come out again soon.

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 570,05 (+1198,01% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 148,22 (+ 10641,10% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1635,00 ($1610,50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $$24,50
----------------------------------------------------------------

A crappy weekend for me, a so-so weekend for Mr. Kelly. That's how it goes, day-in-day out. Not exciting, not glamorous, no profits...only frustration and boredom.

And this is what separates the pros from the amateurs. Ask yourself if you can handle a solid week or two of betting without making any profits? YOu have to if you want to be a pro at this game. Amateurs give up easily, in their expectation of quick profits (Money for Nothing)if they hit a losing streak or a non-winning period (as I like to call it), like I am in recently. No real profits for an extended period. My last bank high was on 17 June, ten days ago. That means ten solid days of being down.
Like Leonard Cohen said, "That's how it goes... everybody knows..."

Mr. Kelly continues to circle around, building up for another logarithmic frenzy like in May. His last bank high was June 5 ($2707,25), so it has been 22 days for the bug guy. It's just a question of time till he embarks on another big winning streak. You never know, it could be today, tomorrow or next week...

TheSnapper's Bank: $3127,34 (+1479,46% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2102,70 (+ 10413,50% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1643,02 ($1610,50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $32,52


-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Sorry about the loss of dates on my chart...I am trying to fix it in Excel, but I'm a bit stuck with this problem. Anyway, you get the idea of the progress of myself and Mr. Kelly on The Race to Florida since the blog started back at the beginning of the year.

A few comments about the chart. You will see that Mr. Kelly has more violent up and down swings, while my progress is fairly smooth. This is because I am using half-Kelly stakes, so my volatility is reduced at the cost of overall lower profits. Mr. Kelly will increase his bank dramatically from time to time, and then fall back violently, circle around for awhile and then repeat the process. Why is this so? Well, it is due to the streaks and slumps. These big winning streaks will come, but it is not possible to predict exactly when. In this sense, it is just a random walk. Mr.Kelly needs these big winning streaks, like in May when his bank grew 10 times larger, to pump up his bank like a balloon. Now he has a larger bank, you can more clearly see how much volatility Mr. Kelly has to endure day in, day out. It is certainly not for the faint-of-heart!

TheSnapper's Bank: $3 103,17 (+1467,26% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1 747,59(+ 8637,95% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1630,23 ($1610,50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $19,73
--------------------------------------------------------------
Only time for 4 races yesterday. I went 1/2 for $19,71 and Mr. Kelly also went 1/2 for $27,56.
--------------------------------------------------------------


"THERE ARE NO BAD HORSES, ONLY BAD PRICES"

Keep that as your motto and you will put yourself on the right betting track.

TheSnapper's Bank: $3082,84 (+1457,30% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1720,03 (+ 8500,15% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1630,23 ($1610,50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $19,73

-------------------------------------------------------------

A tough weekend for Mr. Kelly ... the big guy got smacked for a $300 loss over the weekend. Is he worried? Naw...He takes the good times, he takes the bad times...
-------------------------------------------------------------
Investments

You should always invest your profits. Profits should build up and earn more profits for you. Your bank should not be stuck in Betfair if you don't need to use it.

I have about $1600 invested now. My investment plan is simple. Half of the fund into stocks, half into bonds. When the stocks go down (as they have done recently) and bonds go up, then rebalance the fund to its original 50-50% ratio.

My fund hasn't actually done this yet because it is so small and the purchase transfer size is $50. What I have started to do is to add the funds in a technique known as "dollar-cost averaging". What this is is simply using a fixed amount of investment for both stocks and bonds. Let's say $100 for each. Because the market is down, I invested $110 this week in stocks and only $90 in bonds. What this ensures is that over time you are buying more capital when the market is low and buying less when the market is high.

The combinaion of Shannon's demon and dollar-cost averaging over time produces a compounding effect, which is a special case of Kelly compounding. Your profits are re-invested, producing more profits for re-investment, etc. If you want to make big profits through investments you have to think big and think big over the long-term. Compounding is how you do it. Worked well for Warren Buffet, didn't it?