TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1 615,31 (+ 7976,55% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00
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A better day yesterday, I hit 3/3,broke my losing streak and increased my bank 4.6%. Mr. Kelly made a slight profit, going 2/4 for a $5,27 gain.
Today, I would like to introduce my friend Longshot Larry who will join the team. I have asked Larry to help us out by laying the outsiders in horseracing markets.
Longshot Larry
Larry is an old friend of mine who specializes in laying outsiders in horse races. He claims that there is money to be made laying nags at big prices. The Massey Stats I posted earlier agree with Larry about this, so with time and patience I think Larry should be able to turn a good profit. The twist is that Larry will be using half-Kelly stakes and it will be interesting to see how much faster he can compound profits than Mr. Kelly and I. Since Larry will be laying nags at high prices, it means he will have a very high strike rate, probably over 85%. He should be able to generate some serious compounding...probably better than I can, with my strike rate of 70%.
Anyway, I said, "OK, Larry, I'll give you a shot, but I want results. You need to double your bank within 150 bets or you are out. Mr. Darwin will give you $100, you will need to prove to him that you can succeed, thrive and multiply your bank or you will be wiped out market efficency. I'm sorry that he is so brutal and even cruel, but there is no emotion in this game, no room for feelings. You are either efficient or you are dead (to paraphrase Mr. Darwin a bit)"
(It took me 36 bets and Mr.Kelly 113 bets to double our starting banks, so if he can't beat that, I'll have Mr. Darwin give him the boot).
Larry will be laying between 7,5% and 35% of his bank on one nag per race.
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Longshot Larry is off to a good start:
Runner Stake Odds Liability Result
Griffin Point $2,50 19 $45,00 $2,50
Lees Anthem $2,44 5,1 $10,00 $2,44
Rafaal $2,62 10 $23,58 $2,62
Hot Sugar $2,31 4,5 $8,09 -$8,09
First Fast NowMay Be Some Time $2,55 4,9 $9,95 $2,55
Woop Woop $2,50 15 $35,00 $2,50
Coolella $2,57 15 $35,98 $2,57
Scottish Glen $2,45 12 $26,95 $2,45
Dancing Welcome $2,81 4,9 $10,96 $2,81
Pytheas $2,81 9 $22,48 $2,81
Murindo $2,88 6 $14,40 $2,88
My Brother Sylvest $2,90 11 $29,00 $2,90
Ubenkor $3,02 7,6 $19,93 $3,02
Court Red Handed $3,16 5,9 $15,48 -$15,48
Goodmanyourself $2,71 4 $8,13 $2,71
So, Longshot Larry has recorded a profit of $11,19 on his start bank of $100 from Mr. Darwin. That is 11,19% profit after 15 bets, so he's on track after 2 days of work. His strike rate is 13/15, or 86%, so that is right where he needs to be.
Good luck Larry!