Start Bank: $198,00
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1351,43 (+ 6657,15% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
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A new all-time high for me. A solid day with 4/5 wins for a bank increase of 8,5%.
Mr. Kelly got crushed. He lost 3/5 for a beating of -20,3% of his bank.
So, I've regained first place in the race again!
I withdrew $52,50 from Betfair to send to my reserve bank investments, ("The Demon").
(The Demon now has $930,09 in cash/capital. It has generated $15,67 in profits.)
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TheSnapper and Mr.Kelly's Simple Horse Racing Lay Method in more detail.
There have been many questions from followers regarding the selection methods I use, so I will say a few words today to help clarify things.
First of all, I just want to encourage everyone to search out their own edges. I am not a guru and I don't know all the answers. You can probably find even better strategies on your own. I did, and you all can too! This is just how I do it.
1. Finding an edge
These are the statistics of all horse races run in the UK. I have circled what is relevent for you. The stats show clearly that there is a significant edge in laying horses over 4.0 This is true for all races, field sizes, ages, conditons, etc..This edge is also in the corresponding place market.
This shows you that the Win% SP return is 90% on horses over 4.0. This means that you are going to be 10% poorer backing these beasts at SP. So, obviously, this is the zone you want to be laying in, because you have a 10% edge, just based on the stats.
However, it is not so easy. The Win% SP price is based on the bookies odds, not on Betfair SP. The bookies odds are 5-15% lower, on average, than the Betfair SP. Also, Betfair takes up to 5% commission from your wins as well, so you have to factor that into your calculation.
So what you need to do, then , is to lay at odds as close to the bookies odds (preferably under them) as you can before the race. I often place my lay bets on Betfair at 10% or more below the bookies odds. Often enough, one will be matched. It's kind of like fishing...you dangle a bait and wait for a fish.(My field of speciality!).
Why the place market, not the win market? Well, both markets have the same edge, but the place market is preferred because it has less liquidity. This means it is less efficient, and the edge will be larger.
Anyway, that's the starting point for the laying method. I will continue tomorrow with more on the subject. I'll try and answer your questions as soon as I can, although `I am a bit pressed for time thses days. Thanks for all your interest. Good luck!