Start Bank: $198,00
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $77,40 (+287%)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00
A solid weekend drove both Mr. Kelly and I to new all-time highs. Mr. Kelly doubled his bank by increasing over $40 (+108%), and I increased by $99,79 (+12,7%). In dollar terms, you might say that I was the winner on the weekend - I won $59 more than Mr.Kelly, after all, but a Kelly Staker would say that Mr.Kelly crushed me ...108% to 12,7%. Who would you agree with? Who won this weekend? (...a hint...it was the guy from Texas.)
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Viewers might note that I am emphasising the percentage returns these days. There is a reason for this. If you are a serious Kelly staker, then you have to start viewing the world in percentage terms. The reason is simple, Kelly stakers are only interested in using the percentage return to steadily compound the profits.
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Here is a screenshot from Sunday. Only 6 bets, all winners. (Sorry, but the screenshot turned out a bit small, I have pasted the data from you records below so you can see better.)
TheSnapper
Runner Stake Odds Liability Result
Requinto $13,17 3,45 $32,77 $13,17
Sir Cool $14,90 3,2 $32,78 $14,90
Daring Man $15,21 2,92 $29,20 $15,21
Oracle Des Mottes$34,58 1,43 $14,87 $34,58
Mr.Kelly
Runner Stake Odds Liability Result
Requinto $4,82 3,65 12,77 $4,82
Are You The One $5,36 3,15 11,52 $5,36
I want you to take a close look at Oracle Des Mottes in these figures.. It was a horse running at 1.43 in the place market against a weak field. Look at the liability I placed against it - $14,87. Compare that to the liability I placed against Requinto - $32,77. Kelly Staking requires larger bets when the event is more likely to occur...for layers, this means you need to stake more against outsiders and less against favourites, as I have shown in this example. Why? Well, it is clear. To compound your profits quickly you should be interested in winning often, not making bets on things which will only payoff once in a thousand times. Both might be fine bets, but the high-probability bet is the one which should interest Kelly betters, due to the higher compounding possible.
