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The Perfect Soccer Betting System

More bank highs

10 Mar 11 09:39
Current Bank: $487,63
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr.Kelly's Bank: $22,36
Start Bank: $20,00


Yesterday, I made 11 bets using half-Kelly Staking using 25% of my total bank. (Mr. Kelly isn't happy about that, but he will have to get over it...). I got up to over $22,00 in profit after a good run of 6 wins in  a row, then lost the last 2 races to wind up at $2,72 profit. Along the way my bank hit new highs over $500.Happy

Mr. Kelly also had a solid day. He's won 4 straight and has climbed up to $22,36.

This shows you how Kelly Staking is related to the streaks of winners and losers. A good winning streak will pump up the bank fantastically quickly, but  a losing streak will deflate you again almost (but not as)quickly. Since you never know when a streak will start, each new bet could be the start of a very large profitable run. A Kelly gambler is concerned about the long run and in the streaks and slumps of betting far more than the actual bets themselves. All a Kelly gambler needs is an edge and the math will take care of the rest (except, of course, the psychology of the gambler, i.e. handling losing streaks, going on tilt, getting bored, etc..)

The interesting thing mathematically is that a pure-Kelly gambler always has a 50-50 chance of doubling his bank before he loses half of it (but never all of it). A half-Kelly gambler drastically reduces his bank volatility, with only a 25% reduction in potential profit compared to a full-Kelly gambler. This is why half-Kelly staking is often recommended for sports gambling as a good trade off between risk and profit for most gamblers.



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