Mr. Kelly's Bank:$19,18
The bank increased $21,62 yesterday, and Mr. Kelly improved a few bucks to $19,18, even though he has only made 1 bet in the past 3 days (not his fault...)
I have been doing some thinking about why this bank is increasing so slowly compared to my other betting areas (soccer, tennis). I place several bets in the Place market. But in the soccer and tennis markets, I play one match at a time.One bet at a time and re-calculate the stake after each bet -- in effect, Kelly staking (which requires single bets and recalculation of stake after each bet).
To summarize, my tennis and soccer betting is probably more successful than the horse place markets exactly due to this. The profits are being re-invested and growing the bank. So, after some consultation with Mr.Kelly, he came up with the following changes to my staking plan:
John Kelly's Advice to The Snapper:
"Mr. Snapper..y'all need to do the following at once...
1. Make single bets per event, pardner...
2. Recalculate the stake based on yer bank after each bet (up after a win, down after a loss)
3. Betting stake ranges between 2.5% and 9.5% of bank per lay bet depending on the odds. (Half Kelly stake for a 5% edge)
4. Use yer whole bank, since y'all have no risk of losing it all."
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Well, it sounds good to me, except for #4. As a conservative punter, I think I would prefer to build up to making the massive bets that Mr. Kelly enjoys. So, I think I will use 25% of my bank as a kelly bank and start today making kelly bets. The idea is that nothing can grow your bank as fast as Kelly Staking, and if I am going to make it to Florida anytime soon I have to get this bank growing. The only trick is being sure of the edge. If the edge is actually greater than 5%, that's ok, but if the edge is less than 5% , or worse, negative, then no staking plan, not even Mr. Kelly's, can help. In fact, Mr. Kelly will turn against me in that case --- hence, I think I will omit point #4 in the advice from Mr.Kelly since in sports betting judging the edge can be a rather hit-or-miss affair.