Current bank: $364,23
Start bank: $198,00
The bank shrank again yesterday, despite a record-breaking stake of $178,32, the bank lost -$20,90.
The overall edge stands at 6,55%. This is what I thought it should be, although I will need to get it up to 10% for my model to stay on track. A few changes will be needed in my strategy, I can see.
So, because I am in a downswing, perhaps this is a good time to discuss downswings in betting and what I am doing now as a result.
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Downswings
1.The first thing to do is adjust your stakes. Kelly staking does this for you, because you have to adjust your stakes after each bet according to your bank size. If you don't use Kelly staking, then drop your staking back to 1 or 2% of your bank. If you have a small edge, that will ususally keep you within the Kelly ranges.
(I am using 1% stakes and only reducing my stakes after a 20% decrease in the bank. This is a good plan, because it prevents you from losing your whole bank due to a sustained downswing. My recent downswing has reduced my bank by 25%. It's time to downsize to protect the bank. If you keep the same stakes as your bank gets smaller and smaller you will exceed the Kelly limits and risk wiping out your bank.)
2. The second thing to do is get out your spread sheet and start looking at your results statistically. Where are the profits and where are the losses? (I found that my lays are generating almost all of my profits, so I will have to make some changes in my overall strategy). Your statistics will point you in the right direction and show you where the holes to be plugged are. Then go and plug the holes.
3. Remember that one day should matter little in your big plan. If you find yourself getting upset or losing your cool after a string of bad losses...it's time to drop your stakes and look at your stats. Downswings are natural and to be expected. If you don't plan for them or can't handle them, then you are in the wrong game!
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