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Here we go again, 2 weeks of bleary eyed mornings. I've looked in the Mirra and I've seen Andreeva as winner.
2023 WTA Aussie Open tennisdrawchallenge winner, hoping to reclaim my title 3 years on. You can follow all my pre-tournament, round by round predictions in the below link, once the tournament starts they can't be changed. I appreciate that's all a bit like showing your holiday photos to someone, you think they're as interested as you, but really they're not
I'm hoping there's a surprised finalist in the men's so we're not all bored with another Sinner-Alcatrash final, but that does look unstoppable atm.
Certain players who I think will do well are Kostyuk, Muchova, Mboko, and if there was one BIG shock a la Raducanu US Open 2021 than I'd plump for JOVIC who's 250/1 with one bookie (and chump change on the exchange), generally 150/1 with the rest incl paddies who gave me a free bet to entice be back so I stuck it on that
, all have a decent draw for the first few rounds and all started the season well, Badosa can also go on a good run with her draw and could even take down Keys in the 4th. Shelton can comfortably make the quarters. Would also not be surprised to see the big friendly bean Pole Hubert go deep with his draw, back after 7 months off tour, probably the first man most likely to take out Novak.
I've refrained from casting SoriGOAT as winner so as not to jinx her obviously.
Spoiler: Show
full picks at http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/user/wta/profile/dirtballer
still looking to get more than 47 in Round 1
Kind Regards
2023 WTA Aussie Open tennisdrawchallenge winner, hoping to reclaim my title 3 years on. You can follow all my pre-tournament, round by round predictions in the below link, once the tournament starts they can't be changed. I appreciate that's all a bit like showing your holiday photos to someone, you think they're as interested as you, but really they're not
I'm hoping there's a surprised finalist in the men's so we're not all bored with another Sinner-Alcatrash final, but that does look unstoppable atm.
Certain players who I think will do well are Kostyuk, Muchova, Mboko, and if there was one BIG shock a la Raducanu US Open 2021 than I'd plump for JOVIC who's 250/1 with one bookie (and chump change on the exchange), generally 150/1 with the rest incl paddies who gave me a free bet to entice be back so I stuck it on that
, all have a decent draw for the first few rounds and all started the season well, Badosa can also go on a good run with her draw and could even take down Keys in the 4th. Shelton can comfortably make the quarters. Would also not be surprised to see the big friendly bean Pole Hubert go deep with his draw, back after 7 months off tour, probably the first man most likely to take out Novak.I've refrained from casting SoriGOAT as winner so as not to jinx her obviously.
| 1/4 WINNERS | ODDS | ALT / VALUE | ODDS | 1/4 WINNERS | ODDS | ALT / VALUE | ODDS | |||||||
| ALCARAZ | 1.25 | PAUL | 21 | SABALENKA | 1.53 | JOVIC | 21 | |||||||
| MEDVEDEV | 2.75 | RUBLEV | 9.5 | ANDREEVA | 3.75 | VONDROUSOVA | 21 | |||||||
| DJOKOVIC | 2.4 | TSITSIPAS | 36 | ANISIMOVA | 2.75 | KESSLER | 34 | |||||||
| SINNER | 1.17 | SHELTON | 15 | RYBAKINA | 3.75 | CIRSTEA | 101 |
| REACH FINAL | ODDS | ALT / VALUE | ODDS | REACH FINAL | ODDS | ALT / VALUE | ODDS | |||||||
| ALCARAZ | 1.53 | FELIX | 29 | ANDREEVA | 10 | MBOKO | 21 | |||||||
| SINNER | 1.4 | SHELTON | 67 | RYBAKINA | 5 | BENCIC | 21 |
| FINALISTS | ODDS | ALT / VALUE | ODDS | FINALISTS | ODDS | ALT / VALUE | ODDS | |||||||
| ALCARAZ & SINNER | 1.91 | ALCARAZ & DJOKOVIC | 13 | ANDREEVA & RYBAKINA | 41 | ANDREEVA & KEYS | 151 |
| WINNER | ODDS | ALTERNATIVE | ODDS | ODDS | ALTERNATIVE | ODDS | ||||||||
| ALCARAZ | 2.5 | ZVEREV | 26 | ANDREEVA | 17 | JOVIC | 251 |
Spoiler: Show
| ROUND 1 | CORRECT. | INCORRECT. | DRAW/POS | ROUND 1 | CORRECT. | INCORRECT. | DRAW/POS | ||||||
| FRENCH OPEN 2022 | 43 | 21 | 298/1765 | FRENCH OPEN 2022 | 45 | 19 | 909 / 1078 | ||||||
| WIMBLEDON 2022 | 46 | 18 | 829 / 2158 | WIMBLEDON 2022 | 45 | 19 | 745 / 1255 | ||||||
| US OPEN 2022 | 43 | 21 | 1177 / 1939 | US OPEN 2022 | 40 | 24 | 411 / 1155 | ||||||
| AUS OPEN 2023 | 47 | 17 | 818 / 2312 | AUS OPEN 2023 | 47 | 17 | 1 / 1384 | ||||||
| FRENCH OPEN 2023 | 42 | 22 | 67/1662 | FRENCH OPEN 2023 | 47 | 17 | 303 / 1003 | ||||||
| WIMBLEDON 23 | 39 | 25 | 826/2061 | WIMBLEDON 23 | 38 | 26 | 825/1138 | ||||||
| US OPEN 23 | 40 | 24 | 763/1743 | US OPEN 23 | 43 | 21 | 467/1024 | ||||||
| AUS 24 | 47 | 17 | 1229/1842 | AUS 24 | 41 | 23 | 734/1064 | ||||||
| FRENCH 24 | 41 | 23 | 182/1553 | FRENCH 24 | 42 | 22 | 748/873 | ||||||
| WIMBLEDON24 | 45 | 19 | 294/1875 | WIMBLEDON24 | 45 | 19 | 828/1045 | ||||||
| US OPEN 24 | 41 | 23 | 1112/1667 | US OPEN 24 | 44 | 20 | 386/986 | ||||||
| AUS OPEN 25 | 47 | 17 | 766/1789 | AUS OPEN 25 | 43 | 21 | 758/1044 | ||||||
| FRENCH 25 | 46 | 18 | 298/1459 | FRENCH 25 | 41 | 23 | 674/800 | ||||||
| US OPEN 25 | 42 | 22 | 1029/1539 | US OPEN 25 | 40 | 24 | 771/891 |
full picks at http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/user/wta/profile/dirtballer
still looking to get more than 47 in Round 1
Kind Regards
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Journeyman17 Jan 26 16:27Joined: 14 May 06
Vicky strategically tanking a 500 final to get some rest shows she's going for the bog one.
I'm assuming there's no preview thread due to the phorum being on life support but if you do one please repost the following picks.
Mens
Q1 Demon or Budkhov Kjaer (who I fancy to pull a shock win on Opelka in R1)
Q2 Norrie or Tien
Q3 Mensik or Musetti
Q4 Sinner or Fonseeeeeca
Womens
Q1 Mboko or Kostyuk
Q2 Jessica Bouzas Mineiro or Mirra (unless winning an event the night before a slam takes its toll)
Q3 Amanda and Noskova rematch and again I think the winner may go on to win the title
Q4 Rybakina or Valentova
Iga and Carlos need this to complete the career slam but my hunch is neither will be happening this year
Marina Stakusic needs to be watched as a proven big match player that has been kept off the radar by injury
She came through the Canadian hipster scene with Mboko and will be keen to follow her trajectory.
I see you also picked Mboko and Marta to do well as well
Vondrousova out so will replace alternate pick with Shnaider at 13 for Q2 as she hasn't played yet.
Kostyuk out already
Kostyuk out already
Donna Vekic giving Mirra a fright but can now go back to punting her jewelry at her onsite stall.
Mixed night for Canada with Mboko progressing but Felix and Staks retiring. Marina just can't seem to catch a break
Your alt value pick McCartney Kessler looked good and she's definitely god a big run in a slam in her. She's essentially the new Danielle having come through the college system and having that experience of the world outside the tennis bubble she can think through problems and adapt during matches like a shrewd soccerball manager at half time.
The third French Arthur (Gea) got a comfortable statemark win over Lehecka. He has a chance to get some attention from the French press in the absence of Fils. In the same way the easy moving Jacquemot can get some of their attention in the absence of the higher profile French ladies. I was surprised she beat Marta who has missed a serious chance here.
Mixed night for Canada with Mboko progressing but Felix and Staks retiring. Marina just can't seem to catch a break
Your alt value pick McCartney Kessler looked good and she's definitely god a big run in a slam in her. She's essentially the new Danielle having come through the college system and having that experience of the world outside the tennis bubble she can think through problems and adapt during matches like a shrewd soccerball manager at half time.
The third French Arthur (Gea) got a comfortable statemark win over Lehecka. He has a chance to get some attention from the French press in the absence of Fils. In the same way the easy moving Jacquemot can get some of their attention in the absence of the higher profile French ladies. I was surprised she beat Marta who has missed a serious chance here.
In my original post I said I expect the tournament winner will be whoever wins the Anisimova/Noskova rematch
We're someway off that match but both looked dangerously good in their comfortable first round matches.
We're someway off that match but both looked dangerously good in their comfortable first round matches.
Daniela weighed in on Felix and Marina's predicament on BBC Radio 5 live
'It can be very tough and that's what you expect in Melbourne but I have to say the conditions today were not that extreme. Cramp could be something like not drinking enough the night before or having a heavy meal. Sometimes it has a lot to do with the nerves because when you're spending so much mental energy out there. As a player, it's the worst feeling. You know people are watching and all the pre-season has been working to this moment so you have to feel really bad for Felix and Marina'
Source BBC Radio 5 live
'It can be very tough and that's what you expect in Melbourne but I have to say the conditions today were not that extreme. Cramp could be something like not drinking enough the night before or having a heavy meal. Sometimes it has a lot to do with the nerves because when you're spending so much mental energy out there. As a player, it's the worst feeling. You know people are watching and all the pre-season has been working to this moment so you have to feel really bad for Felix and Marina'
Source BBC Radio 5 live
Shnaider rocking the Polka-dot bandana not a good look, looks like a young Hilda Ogdon.
Arsenal fan spotted supporting Ruud on the highlights reel at 49 seconds with the home kit with some Viking Horns on his bonce, wasn't me
Anyone else find it hard watching on John Cain Arena with it's high camera angle, almost reaching for the binoculars for the Popyrin and Tomljanovic matches.
Felix let me down again, I don't know how you can have cramps so badly when preparation as a Pro athlete must be as stringent as it gets, sack the strength and conditioning coach IMO. That's the second time he's retired in Round 1 of a slam following on from the US open a few years ago.
Kessler has a much sterner test next in Peculiar Pegula, i.e moneybags, but I've never been a fan of the college system, players tend to waste their prime years in their late teens/early 20's just to have a college degree fallback, we'd never have seen the clash of eras with Serena v Steffi Indian Wells final 1999 if Richard had put her down that route, or Venus, or Maria fights for your money Sharapova desperately try and call her mum on court after Winning Wimbledon as a 19 year old in 2004
250/1 shot Jovic quietly going about her business
28/43 first round picks for ATP, wont break my 47 R1 picks record there barring a miracle
34/44 first round picks for WTA, need 14 correct picks from remaining 20 matches.
Kind Regards.
Arsenal fan spotted supporting Ruud on the highlights reel at 49 seconds with the home kit with some Viking Horns on his bonce, wasn't me
Anyone else find it hard watching on John Cain Arena with it's high camera angle, almost reaching for the binoculars for the Popyrin and Tomljanovic matches.
Felix let me down again, I don't know how you can have cramps so badly when preparation as a Pro athlete must be as stringent as it gets, sack the strength and conditioning coach IMO. That's the second time he's retired in Round 1 of a slam following on from the US open a few years ago.
Kessler has a much sterner test next in Peculiar Pegula, i.e moneybags, but I've never been a fan of the college system, players tend to waste their prime years in their late teens/early 20's just to have a college degree fallback, we'd never have seen the clash of eras with Serena v Steffi Indian Wells final 1999 if Richard had put her down that route, or Venus, or Maria fights for your money Sharapova desperately try and call her mum on court after Winning Wimbledon as a 19 year old in 2004
250/1 shot Jovic quietly going about her business
28/43 first round picks for ATP, wont break my 47 R1 picks record there barring a miracle
34/44 first round picks for WTA, need 14 correct picks from remaining 20 matches.
Kind Regards.
Tery Valentova announces herself on the big stage with a convincing win over Joint
I did wonder during her tame second set fading against Keys last week if she was putting all focus on landing a R! slam win.
I did wonder during her tame second set fading against Keys last week if she was putting all focus on landing a R! slam win.
yeah good call, thought Joint would at least take it to a third
Good win for the Romanian Warrior Princess. Lys is deceptively dangerous as she has no real weapons but you wouldn't want to underestimate her work ethic and desire to get to the top. Her relentless ambition reminds me in some ways of Geri Halliwell An odd comparison. In fact she will probably find a way this year to break into the top 20 (which has been Cirstea's endless quest) and if she does it will be more evidence of her ability to overdeliver based on sheer determination.
We've kept the faith in Fonseca when the megathread were largely dismissing him as hype but he's not delivering. Perhaps some kind of Brazilian all round physical and mental mentor needs to step in and help him?
The stats you posted on Leylah (and Less Rich Emma) don't make good reading. 2025 seemed to have been a great platform to kick on from but that's a horrendous result. I thought she'd benefit from the competition for top Canadian with Mboko (who's probably going to surge away from her into the top 10 in the next few weeks) but maybe not
An odd comparison. In fact she will probably find a way this year to break into the top 20 (which has been Cirstea's endless quest) and if she does it will be more evidence of her ability to overdeliver based on sheer determination.We've kept the faith in Fonseca when the megathread were largely dismissing him as hype but he's not delivering. Perhaps some kind of Brazilian all round physical and mental mentor needs to step in and help him?
The stats you posted on Leylah (and Less Rich Emma) don't make good reading. 2025 seemed to have been a great platform to kick on from but that's a horrendous result. I thought she'd benefit from the competition for top Canadian with Mboko (who's probably going to surge away from her into the top 10 in the next few weeks) but maybe not
The thing about Fonseca is that it's fantastic he has that travelling Brazilian support but when he's struggling to make progress there doesn't seem to be that tennis culture really in a country that is basically football obsessesed.
In comparison Budkhov Kjaer as a Norwegian has the advantage of being at the heart of the European scene with the Scandinavian swing and Caspar Ruud has mentored him and is available for advice. I can see him this year grabbing one of these tinpots that Caspar loved to vulture on the strength of that FH alone but if progress stalls there's a support system there for him.
In comparison Budkhov Kjaer as a Norwegian has the advantage of being at the heart of the European scene with the Scandinavian swing and Caspar Ruud has mentored him and is available for advice. I can see him this year grabbing one of these tinpots that Caspar loved to vulture on the strength of that FH alone but if progress stalls there's a support system there for him.
it's like i've said before mes. felix is useless. has the heart of pigeon and no mental strength whatsoever. has retired meekly on plenty of occasions and that is all to do with fight and more specifically lack of it. his poor mentality means he will not deliver on his undoubted ability
He retired on average once a year on tour since he broke on to it. I'm not holding him up as a future slam winner, just to reach number 4 end of year, which considering he's previous peak is number 5, it's hardly a great shout anyway. It's more an indictment om the rest of the top 10, outside of Sincaraz, there really isn't that much stand out talent.
In other news as JM mentioned, SoranaGOAT quietly going about her business, 6 matches from greatness
In other news as JM mentioned, SoranaGOAT quietly going about her business, 6 matches from greatness
41/64 ATP
45/64 WTA, currently 28th, nobody got more than 49
Moat picks in ATP was 52, men's tennis more predictable than women's, who knew.
Kind Regards.
45/64 WTA, currently 28th, nobody got more than 49
Moat picks in ATP was 52, men's tennis more predictable than women's, who knew.
Kind Regards.
Several obvious IJBABP candidates tonight. Fery to try to avoid a plucky follow up to taking down Cobolli, Jacquemot to come quickly back down to earth after toppling Kostyuk in three epic tiebreaks.
Tomorrow it will be the turn of Arthur Gea after his heroics against the much hyped Jiri Lehecka. He faces an interesting encounter with Stan (who will be playing his last Aus open with a tear in the eye. This is an event that holds beuatiful memories for the swiss)
Gea in his hipster days had a worryingly slight 'philosophy student living on crisp sandwiches' look about him but he's clearly done the physical work and his game is great to watch. Electric at the net and seems able to build momentum smoothly. It never felt against Jiri that Gea's level or focus was going to drop sharply off a cliff. Great body language and easily engages the crowd.
He might just have Becker-esque long shot potential here if he can avoid the terrifying trapdoor of IJBABP
Tomorrow it will be the turn of Arthur Gea after his heroics against the much hyped Jiri Lehecka. He faces an interesting encounter with Stan (who will be playing his last Aus open with a tear in the eye. This is an event that holds beuatiful memories for the swiss)
Gea in his hipster days had a worryingly slight 'philosophy student living on crisp sandwiches' look about him but he's clearly done the physical work and his game is great to watch. Electric at the net and seems able to build momentum smoothly. It never felt against Jiri that Gea's level or focus was going to drop sharply off a cliff. Great body language and easily engages the crowd.
He might just have Becker-esque long shot potential here if he can avoid the terrifying trapdoor of IJBABP
To think Stan was only a Wimbledon away from completing the Career grand slam, too bad for him he was always a cow on ice on the grass.
Several obvious IJBABP candidates tonight. Fery to try to avoid a plucky follow up to taking down Cobolli, Jacquemot to come quickly back down to earth after toppling Kostyuk in three epic tiebreaks.
Both IJBABP land in style.
Fery spent the day being fanfared by the UK press. A specialist in taking down 20th seeds the BBC pointed out. The inevitable brutal thrashing followed and back on the plane for the Ferryman
If Jacquemot had one of those fortune telling squeezy balls in her pocket it would have given her a better chance of working where her opponent's next ball was going. After three barnstorming tiebreaks against Kostyuk she managed to win just three games last night
Noskova plays Taylah Preston tonight. Watching how she handles a very in form popular Aussie (including body language, intensity etc) will give some clues as to whether she's ready to make a move at a slam on her best surface.
Both IJBABP land in style.
Fery spent the day being fanfared by the UK press. A specialist in taking down 20th seeds the BBC pointed out. The inevitable brutal thrashing followed and back on the plane for the Ferryman
If Jacquemot had one of those fortune telling squeezy balls in her pocket it would have given her a better chance of working where her opponent's next ball was going. After three barnstorming tiebreaks against Kostyuk she managed to win just three games last night
Noskova plays Taylah Preston tonight. Watching how she handles a very in form popular Aussie (including body language, intensity etc) will give some clues as to whether she's ready to make a move at a slam on her best surface.
Gea vs Stan the match of the tournament so far for me. Absolute conviction on both sides. The young French can leave with pride, great future ahead surely.
I've noticed Noskova moves around the tennis court like she's on a beach walking along the shore looking for shells. On the plus side there's little chance of getting injured if you never run for anything ever. That was a good win.
Bartunkova was sensational and might tempt her main cheerleader edy to un-ban himself! Bencic was in great form dispatching Boulter but she had no answers to the young Czech. The best match Bartunkova has played on the main tour surely and she's one to watch.
I've noticed Noskova moves around the tennis court like she's on a beach walking along the shore looking for shells. On the plus side there's little chance of getting injured if you never run for anything ever. That was a good win.
Bartunkova was sensational and might tempt her main cheerleader edy to un-ban himself! Bencic was in great form dispatching Boulter but she had no answers to the young Czech. The best match Bartunkova has played on the main tour surely and she's one to watch.
A third of the way into the event my instincts are telling me there's going to be a first time slam winner on the womens side.
Probably one of Amanda, Noskova, Mirra or Mboko (with Bartunkova and Valentova as speculative longshots)
Probably one of Amanda, Noskova, Mirra or Mboko (with Bartunkova and Valentova as speculative longshots)
250/1 shout Jovic still going as she heads into the 4th round after beating Paolini Nutini in straights.
Currently around 40/1 now with most books. Now strong fav to beat Poots next, my only Alt left for quarter winner, ocme thought that and it's Big foot in the quarters unless Mboko shocks the world with an upset, though it wouldn't be that big a shock for those that have followed her progress, she was my alt/value pick to reach the final.
Currently around 40/1 now with most books. Now strong fav to beat Poots next, my only Alt left for quarter winner, ocme thought that and it's Big foot in the quarters unless Mboko shocks the world with an upset, though it wouldn't be that big a shock for those that have followed her progress, she was my alt/value pick to reach the final.
Yes that was a good call on Jovic, mes. Biggest win of her career and she's playing with intensity and you can see the almost crazed belief in her eyes. I've seen that look before funnily enough on Cirstea during one of the Wimbledons.
Now you know very well it would be a classic 'Just beat a bigger player' trap to beat the seventh seed and then underestimate the lower ranked but experienced Putintseva (who has been busy endearing herself to the crowd) Yulia is wily and has all the tricks but if Jovic can pass that test she'll be in the mix.
Now you know very well it would be a classic 'Just beat a bigger player' trap to beat the seventh seed and then underestimate the lower ranked but experienced Putintseva (who has been busy endearing herself to the crowd) Yulia is wily and has all the tricks but if Jovic can pass that test she'll be in the mix.
From my initial list of eight I have one still standing in each quarter but they could be the semi final lineup
Mboko
Mirra
Amanda
Rybakina
Amanda and Rybakina have conserved resources by quietly getting their matches won quickly. Mboko and Mirra are going to need to solve a few three setters. I think Vicky can beat Sabalenka. She never downs tools and moves on to plan b or plan c without fuss if things are going wrong. She's pulled off huge upsets before, notable against Rybakina in Canada.
Mboko
Mirra
Amanda
Rybakina
Amanda and Rybakina have conserved resources by quietly getting their matches won quickly. Mboko and Mirra are going to need to solve a few three setters. I think Vicky can beat Sabalenka. She never downs tools and moves on to plan b or plan c without fuss if things are going wrong. She's pulled off huge upsets before, notable against Rybakina in Canada.
Ryba's so unassuming you sometimes just kinda forget that's she really good. Only 10.3% picked her to win, 4% Andreeva.
Saba-Moboko first up tomorrow, looking forward to that, first meeting.
Saba-Moboko first up tomorrow, looking forward to that, first meeting.
Women's draw fallen apart as usual.
Jovic though crushed Poots 60 61
Next up the Belorussian Night club bouncer.
Jovic though crushed Poots 60 61
Next up the Belorussian Night club bouncer.
Mboko heading home with plenty of new fans
How many players would have downed tools when Aryna went a set and a double break up? Vicky found that extra level and pulled the match back to the tie break. Suddenly Aryna seemed on the ropes and only Aryna's serve was keeping her in the fight, just managing to get the door closed in the tie break. If that match went to a third set there was only one winner imo
How many players would have downed tools when Aryna went a set and a double break up? Vicky found that extra level and pulled the match back to the tie break. Suddenly Aryna seemed on the ropes and only Aryna's serve was keeping her in the fight, just managing to get the door closed in the tie break. If that match went to a third set there was only one winner imo
Amanda on court soon. She seems to be going under the radar again despite going for her third slam final in a row. The hammering from Iga may be fresh enough in the public memory that she's being overlooked as a contender
Xinyu wang can take it into a third set so there should be some pointers about Anisimova's conditioning for the week ahead
Xinyu wang can take it into a third set so there should be some pointers about Anisimova's conditioning for the week ahead
It's hard to see Shelton taking more than a set from Jannik but at least you are only needing him to beat one of the current duopoly to get 15 or maybe 82 points
The headache for the lost generation was always that they would need to beat at least two of the elite and it's a similar situation now for the likes of Shelton, Zverev, Felix and Musetti
The headache for the lost generation was always that they would need to beat at least two of the elite and it's a similar situation now for the likes of Shelton, Zverev, Felix and Musetti
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