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Women's Wimbledon outright thread discussion. Was waiting for the movements after the French Open first before opening this. Will post the best prices available currently on players I talk about.
Serena 2.76. What I don't really get about Serena's price is she was 3.x before the French Open, she's been backed in on the back of French Open, and I'm not really sure why, she looked very beatable for much of the French, was eventually beaten, and there's even a few injury question marks now. You'd expect her to recover, but even so I don't think she should be shorter than 3 on the basis of recent results.
Muguruza 7/1 Was obviously going to get smashed in on the back of yesterday. I'm not convinced grass will actually suit her though despite making Wimbledon final last year. Her other results on grass have been poor, and for me she's ripe for an upset first week. Having seen her up close on grass, I think she finds grass very hard to move on, and despite her own powerful strokes, struggles to deal with power from the opposition on the surface. Also the market always follows a trend of smash in the latest bandwagon, yet the consistency of everyone bar Serena including Muguruza is very sketchy, so I'm not sure I really buy into the idea that she wins the French makes her so much more likely to win Wimbledon. Seems a poor price now that could drift if she loses early in Mallorca, but even if it doesn't, still seems a poor price.
Kvitova 7/1 This one to me seems truly dreadful right now. Obviously it's her best surface, but her form is so poor right now that I don't really get why she's this far up the betting. Kvitova has barely played a good match all year, let and out a tournament. To me she seems like she should be at least double this price right now. Not convinced at all that just because it's grass she will turn it on, and if you're going to be backing 7/1 you need to be pretty sure she's going to turn it on, because even if she was in form she wouldn't be much shorter than this.
Azarenka 19.5 Brought up yesterday that Kvitova and Azarenka seem too short outright during the French Open final. In the 24 hours since though Azarenka has drifted a lot. She was around 11s when I wrote that yesterday. Price seems more realistic now. You don't really know what you are getting back this right now. Could be way shorter after a match or two, but could be out also. No real information on her injury, no form to judge her on very recently, and a lack of match play if she goes in with no matches leave huge question marks. This probably isn't a lay, but at the same time it seems very risky business getting involved right now, albeit you now have the benefit of if she doesn't play you get your money back.
Kerber 26 This is the first one that stands out to me. Kerber started shorter than this to win the French despite clay being her worst surface. Kerber is good on grass, and tends to perform to a good level on it every year. She has a high seeding, and you would think a new found confidence in general with how her year has gone despite recent poor form. This seems a clear back to me before Birmingham where she could shorten a lot on he back of a good week. I would expect her to start sub 20s, and think she should be that price anyway.
Halep 28 Hard to call exactly what direction Halep is going right now. I wouldn't lay this. Halep isn't the grass mug she is sometimes perceived to be, and can certainly be a threat. Mentally there seem huge question marks right now, but I still feel like she should be a tad shorter than this.
Radwanska 33/1 I first picked out this one a few weeks ago. At the time it looked nailed on she would be #2 seed, which of course she now isn't on the back of Muguruza's French Open win. However I still think this is a good price. She still has a high seeding, and much like Kerber generally performs well on the grass. I am actually scratching my head a bit why this is so high, there's a general perception that these events are reasonably open right now, and there certainly seems nearly a dozen players you could see conceivably winning it right now. She started much shorter than this for the Australian Open, but I imagine most people would agree that her best chances have always appeared to be on grass to win a grand slam. This is another price I expect to shorten, however unlike Kerber, Radwanska has often performed poorly in Wimbledon warm ups, so maybe isn't guaranteed. But I'd definitely expect this to shorten once the event gets going.
From that I guess my general perception is that the field should be more closely grouped together than they currently are. It seems open to at least all of these players. I might talk about some outsiders further down the betting later. Just to mention one final price at the top of betting. Keys 25/1 Ever since Keys made that run in the Australian Open last year her prices for grand slams have come tumbling down. There's a bit of the Dimitrov/Raonic's about her prices now imo, in that she always starts a bit artifically short on the hype factor. I wouldn't want to back this when there are more proven players at even bigger prices, and wouldn't really want to back someone this short based on potential in general.
Probably the large outsider that jumps off at me right now is Cibulkova 260, that seems way too big when looking at a lot of the people above her in the betting.
Serena 2.76. What I don't really get about Serena's price is she was 3.x before the French Open, she's been backed in on the back of French Open, and I'm not really sure why, she looked very beatable for much of the French, was eventually beaten, and there's even a few injury question marks now. You'd expect her to recover, but even so I don't think she should be shorter than 3 on the basis of recent results.
Muguruza 7/1 Was obviously going to get smashed in on the back of yesterday. I'm not convinced grass will actually suit her though despite making Wimbledon final last year. Her other results on grass have been poor, and for me she's ripe for an upset first week. Having seen her up close on grass, I think she finds grass very hard to move on, and despite her own powerful strokes, struggles to deal with power from the opposition on the surface. Also the market always follows a trend of smash in the latest bandwagon, yet the consistency of everyone bar Serena including Muguruza is very sketchy, so I'm not sure I really buy into the idea that she wins the French makes her so much more likely to win Wimbledon. Seems a poor price now that could drift if she loses early in Mallorca, but even if it doesn't, still seems a poor price.
Kvitova 7/1 This one to me seems truly dreadful right now. Obviously it's her best surface, but her form is so poor right now that I don't really get why she's this far up the betting. Kvitova has barely played a good match all year, let and out a tournament. To me she seems like she should be at least double this price right now. Not convinced at all that just because it's grass she will turn it on, and if you're going to be backing 7/1 you need to be pretty sure she's going to turn it on, because even if she was in form she wouldn't be much shorter than this.
Azarenka 19.5 Brought up yesterday that Kvitova and Azarenka seem too short outright during the French Open final. In the 24 hours since though Azarenka has drifted a lot. She was around 11s when I wrote that yesterday. Price seems more realistic now. You don't really know what you are getting back this right now. Could be way shorter after a match or two, but could be out also. No real information on her injury, no form to judge her on very recently, and a lack of match play if she goes in with no matches leave huge question marks. This probably isn't a lay, but at the same time it seems very risky business getting involved right now, albeit you now have the benefit of if she doesn't play you get your money back.
Kerber 26 This is the first one that stands out to me. Kerber started shorter than this to win the French despite clay being her worst surface. Kerber is good on grass, and tends to perform to a good level on it every year. She has a high seeding, and you would think a new found confidence in general with how her year has gone despite recent poor form. This seems a clear back to me before Birmingham where she could shorten a lot on he back of a good week. I would expect her to start sub 20s, and think she should be that price anyway.
Halep 28 Hard to call exactly what direction Halep is going right now. I wouldn't lay this. Halep isn't the grass mug she is sometimes perceived to be, and can certainly be a threat. Mentally there seem huge question marks right now, but I still feel like she should be a tad shorter than this.
Radwanska 33/1 I first picked out this one a few weeks ago. At the time it looked nailed on she would be #2 seed, which of course she now isn't on the back of Muguruza's French Open win. However I still think this is a good price. She still has a high seeding, and much like Kerber generally performs well on the grass. I am actually scratching my head a bit why this is so high, there's a general perception that these events are reasonably open right now, and there certainly seems nearly a dozen players you could see conceivably winning it right now. She started much shorter than this for the Australian Open, but I imagine most people would agree that her best chances have always appeared to be on grass to win a grand slam. This is another price I expect to shorten, however unlike Kerber, Radwanska has often performed poorly in Wimbledon warm ups, so maybe isn't guaranteed. But I'd definitely expect this to shorten once the event gets going.
From that I guess my general perception is that the field should be more closely grouped together than they currently are. It seems open to at least all of these players. I might talk about some outsiders further down the betting later. Just to mention one final price at the top of betting. Keys 25/1 Ever since Keys made that run in the Australian Open last year her prices for grand slams have come tumbling down. There's a bit of the Dimitrov/Raonic's about her prices now imo, in that she always starts a bit artifically short on the hype factor. I wouldn't want to back this when there are more proven players at even bigger prices, and wouldn't really want to back someone this short based on potential in general.
Probably the large outsider that jumps off at me right now is Cibulkova 260, that seems way too big when looking at a lot of the people above her in the betting.
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n88uk
thanks for the write up and much appreciated though Serena is an obvious fav. Bookie statisticians will point out her lifetime average is probably slightly over one grand slam per year and grass is her best surface. The only negative would be her age and motivation. As for Mugu, currently, how many WTA players have gone on to win RG and wimbledons back to back? I think Serena has only done it twice in her 20 year career. Graf did it four times, though could not do it first time after her first 1987 RG victory. 8-1 is a terrible price for a person who has just won their first grand slam , overwhelming stats and history prove it, so i agree, 8-1 is poor price.
As for Radwanska, she is the Giles Simon of the WTA!
thanks for the write up and much appreciated though Serena is an obvious fav. Bookie statisticians will point out her lifetime average is probably slightly over one grand slam per year and grass is her best surface. The only negative would be her age and motivation. As for Mugu, currently, how many WTA players have gone on to win RG and wimbledons back to back? I think Serena has only done it twice in her 20 year career. Graf did it four times, though could not do it first time after her first 1987 RG victory. 8-1 is a terrible price for a person who has just won their first grand slam , overwhelming stats and history prove it, so i agree, 8-1 is poor price.
As for Radwanska, she is the Giles Simon of the WTA!
dont think radwanksa has any chance of winning a slam, she missed the boat at wimbledon a few years ago
how about belinda? will she be playing out still injured?
grant, i take it you have shoved all yr mugu winnings on her for wimby?
Jun 5, 2016 -- 12:16PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:
grant, i take it you have shoved all yr mugu winnings on her for wimby?
invested some in over 39.5 games 2day
depends which murray shows up, if he is slicing to novak's backhand more than 20% of the time he has a very very good shot
Jun 5, 2016 -- 12:16PM, GRANTCKING wrote:
how about belinda? will she be playing out still injured?
Back next week.
Also I have always rated Murray a bigger talent than Djokovic. He has way more variation, spin and shot selection on his shots than Djokovic . However, the two biggest differences btw the two is that:
-Murray has piled on unnecessary muscle on his skinny frame causing him to 'work' harder on his shots
- the boring brick wall that is novak has a MUCH better 2nd serve.
novak has gone on record stating he doesn't touch weights or do unnecessary calisthenics exercises to preserve his longevity in the sport. Muzz should take note
-Murray has piled on unnecessary muscle on his skinny frame causing him to 'work' harder on his shots
- the boring brick wall that is novak has a MUCH better 2nd serve.
novak has gone on record stating he doesn't touch weights or do unnecessary calisthenics exercises to preserve his longevity in the sport. Muzz should take note
Jun 5, 2016 -- 12:15PM, GRANTCKING wrote:
dont think radwanksa has any chance of winning a slam, she missed the boat at wimbledon a few years ago
you might get a trade out of backing her @33's and then getting out if she reaches the semis, but yeah I never see her winning a slam
You will get a trade much before the semi's. I don't get why she's this big a price already. I think she will get backed down by the time Wimbledon actually starts.
Radwanska has a chance if things go her way. I don't think she will win a grand slam either, but her best chance is probably Wimbledon.
GREEDISGOOD
Date Joined: 31 Jul 10
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05 Jun 16 12:31 Joined: 31 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,931 | Blogger: GREEDISGOOD's blog
Also I have always rated Murray a bigger talent than Djokovic. He has way more variation, spin and shot selection on his shots than Djokovic . However, the two biggest differences btw the two is that:
-Murray has piled on unnecessary muscle on his skinny frame causing him to 'work' harder on his shots
- the boring brick wall that is novak has a MUCH better 2nd serve.
novak has gone on record stating he doesn't touch weights or do unnecessary calisthenics exercises to preserve his longevity in the sport. Muzz should take note
3. Novak has best drugs.
Date Joined: 31 Jul 10
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05 Jun 16 12:31 Joined: 31 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,931 | Blogger: GREEDISGOOD's blog
Also I have always rated Murray a bigger talent than Djokovic. He has way more variation, spin and shot selection on his shots than Djokovic . However, the two biggest differences btw the two is that:
-Murray has piled on unnecessary muscle on his skinny frame causing him to 'work' harder on his shots
- the boring brick wall that is novak has a MUCH better 2nd serve.
novak has gone on record stating he doesn't touch weights or do unnecessary calisthenics exercises to preserve his longevity in the sport. Muzz should take note
3. Novak has best drugs.
N88uk, great post. It's like reading the forum 10 years ago, when a bit analysis and reasoning was given behind most posts.
Totally agree about Serena. I was backing her at around 3.7/3.9 for the French as her recent clay court w/l record made the price look huge. At Wimbledon, even last year when winning, she was given a real scare by Heather Watson along the way and dropped an opening set to Azarenka. Year before that knocked out by Alize Cornet ffs, year before that knocked out by Lisicki. She is the default favourite but her price at the moment is stupidly short. More than once she has stated that she prefers clay to grass.
Muguruza, I think her price is about right. Bit harsh to say that her form on grass before last year's final was poor. She was only 21 when she played the final. Her big serve obviously suits grass, her movement is improving all the time and she is the only person in the draw guaranteed to be in the opposite side of the draw to Serena.
Your analysis of Kvitova is spot on. Difficult to make a judgement on Azarenka at the moment but if she turns up fit, she will be a danger.
Radwanska, Kerber, Keys and of course Venus have all shown form on grass previously and there are a host of dangerous big servers to throw into the mix. Should be interesting.
Totally agree about Serena. I was backing her at around 3.7/3.9 for the French as her recent clay court w/l record made the price look huge. At Wimbledon, even last year when winning, she was given a real scare by Heather Watson along the way and dropped an opening set to Azarenka. Year before that knocked out by Alize Cornet ffs, year before that knocked out by Lisicki. She is the default favourite but her price at the moment is stupidly short. More than once she has stated that she prefers clay to grass.
Muguruza, I think her price is about right. Bit harsh to say that her form on grass before last year's final was poor. She was only 21 when she played the final. Her big serve obviously suits grass, her movement is improving all the time and she is the only person in the draw guaranteed to be in the opposite side of the draw to Serena.
Your analysis of Kvitova is spot on. Difficult to make a judgement on Azarenka at the moment but if she turns up fit, she will be a danger.
Radwanska, Kerber, Keys and of course Venus have all shown form on grass previously and there are a host of dangerous big servers to throw into the mix. Should be interesting.
Jun 5, 2016 -- 12:21PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:
depends which murray shows up, if he is slicing to novak's backhand more than 20% of the time he has a very very good shot
murray didn't bother with slice in the first set, so a little surprised he won it. In fact I can't remember him him slicing the ball not once in the first which was a huge tactical mistake and was lucky to get away with it by relying on UEs. Nnetheless, by then you knew if he did the same baseline rallies djokovic would eventually take over. I also see Murray tried slicing (but a little short) and moonballing to novak's forhand in the fourth which worked a little better but much too late,. Murray can beat novak at wimby but he will need to sort out that slice which novaks struggles more with on grass, but still would be a long shot
Although I think Murray is an amazing tennis player I find it laughable that anyone could think he is more talented than Djokovic
What I find amazing about Murray is that we are discussing him on a womens outright thread. Has he had the chop?
To me Serena looks about right price wise, form is good (ish) and from all accounts she has had an abductor injury in the French. But I will not be backing at these odds. She should win 1 slam at least in a calendar year so anything around 3's is about fair.
Muguruza at 8's I think is about right too. Her serve is an asset and she did make last years final. So in a sense that shows form on grass. She also did start slowly in the French, nearly ousted in the first round against Schmiedlova. So maybe she is just lazy pre-tourney and needs the early rounds to get used to the new surface? With the possibility of a 1st round loss?
The rest are a toss up for me, not sure on Kvitova (obvious form on grass) and I think Coco may be a roughy, from memory she did well last year here where she almost beat the Ice Queen in the quarterfinal. I thought she looked ok form wise too at the French on obviously a surface that does not suit her style. Anything over 100's on her is worth a punt.
Azarenka... don't know what to make of her. Will give 100% if she is there but will she even make the tournament? If she drifts out to 30's I might have a nibble as she will always give a chance if she starts.
Just some ramblings.
To me Serena looks about right price wise, form is good (ish) and from all accounts she has had an abductor injury in the French. But I will not be backing at these odds. She should win 1 slam at least in a calendar year so anything around 3's is about fair.
Muguruza at 8's I think is about right too. Her serve is an asset and she did make last years final. So in a sense that shows form on grass. She also did start slowly in the French, nearly ousted in the first round against Schmiedlova. So maybe she is just lazy pre-tourney and needs the early rounds to get used to the new surface? With the possibility of a 1st round loss?
The rest are a toss up for me, not sure on Kvitova (obvious form on grass) and I think Coco may be a roughy, from memory she did well last year here where she almost beat the Ice Queen in the quarterfinal. I thought she looked ok form wise too at the French on obviously a surface that does not suit her style. Anything over 100's on her is worth a punt.
Azarenka... don't know what to make of her. Will give 100% if she is there but will she even make the tournament? If she drifts out to 30's I might have a nibble as she will always give a chance if she starts.
Just some ramblings.
Agree Tyco. Of the 10 most recent threads on here, this is the only one dedicated to womens tennis and it is hijacked by boneheads who can't stop talking about men.
About Muguruza. She is entered to play in the very first Mallorcan Open, next week. Its a new grass court tournament and the field looks pretty weak. At the moment Ivanovic is the number two seed, Errani number three. As a Spanish player playing in the very first Spanish grass court tournament in a weak field, she really should get plenty of grass court match practice before Wimbledon.
A decent showing by her there and by Kvitova in Birmingham, I can't see Serena starting too close to her current price. The current price for her is too short. As said before, she wobbled badly against Heather Watson last year and was put out of the tournament by Alize Cornet the year before and by Lisicki the year before that. Your shout of an SP around 3's wouldn't be too far off the mark.
Serena has a great forehand and great backhand but Sam Sumyk had Muguruza hitting directly at Serena's feet a lot of the time, giving Serena little width. Serena's footwork adjustment is not the greatest. Will be interesting to see if this tactic is picked up on.
You can make a case for plenty of lively outsiders this year.
About Muguruza. She is entered to play in the very first Mallorcan Open, next week. Its a new grass court tournament and the field looks pretty weak. At the moment Ivanovic is the number two seed, Errani number three. As a Spanish player playing in the very first Spanish grass court tournament in a weak field, she really should get plenty of grass court match practice before Wimbledon.
A decent showing by her there and by Kvitova in Birmingham, I can't see Serena starting too close to her current price. The current price for her is too short. As said before, she wobbled badly against Heather Watson last year and was put out of the tournament by Alize Cornet the year before and by Lisicki the year before that. Your shout of an SP around 3's wouldn't be too far off the mark.
Serena has a great forehand and great backhand but Sam Sumyk had Muguruza hitting directly at Serena's feet a lot of the time, giving Serena little width. Serena's footwork adjustment is not the greatest. Will be interesting to see if this tactic is picked up on.
You can make a case for plenty of lively outsiders this year.
Jun 6, 2016 -- 6:04PM, dlarssonf wrote:
Although I think Murray is an amazing tennis player I find it laughable that anyone could think he is more talented than Djokovic
Murray has more shot variation and spin variation and just about anyone who knows tennis could tell you that. In fact, when Novak and Muzz were growing up together , everyone on the circuit said Muzz would go on to be the better talent. As it happens now, you cannot beat a brick wall on a gluten free diet.
Just as an addition to my earlier post. I wonder if Sharapova is worth a lazy bet because if she does play her odds will shorten dramatically... or will they. Will she be too underdone, or can she get some form in the first week of the slam to have a chance against the better players?
Maybe the 25's are a bit short, but at least its almost a free back because if she does not play you get money back.
Maybe the 25's are a bit short, but at least its almost a free back because if she does not play you get money back.
Has she been covertly practicing on the grass courts?
Forget what I just wrote last night. I see she has been banned for 2 years. Very likely not going to Wimbledon. I had seen her practice with her fitness trainer so trying to keep in shape etc...
The results this week have somewhat supported my original post, yet the market prices aren't moving at all on the favourites. Muguruza and Kvitova are far too short at this point.
I actually think the 4 favourites right now are all bad prices. Serena seems a tad too short. Muguruza and Kvitova are mad prices, and what is theory behind Keys being 4th favourite exactly? Seems madness.
I actually think the 4 favourites right now are all bad prices. Serena seems a tad too short. Muguruza and Kvitova are mad prices, and what is theory behind Keys being 4th favourite exactly? Seems madness.
Betting to 129% on the outright at the moment. Market will be much more competitive nearer the off. Can't really judge Kvitova and Muguruza on their performances in Mickey Mouse tournaments. Muguruza said she has had no time to practice on grass due to spending a week giving interview after interview and Kvitova was carrying a slight injury and was apparently told on court by her coach, Frantisek Cermak, not to try too hard and be ready for her next tournament, according to a Czech poster on tennisforum.com. Serena should be a slightly longer price based on going out to Cornet and Lisicki at Wimbledon in recent times and nearly going out to Watson last year. Keys has seemingly been punted in, based on a couple of wins against Babos and Paszek. That is puzzling. A lot of uncertainty in the market at the moment. Maybe Eastbourne next week will give a few clues.
I expect a bit of market correction because of the ovveround you say, but honestly the likes of Muguruza and Kvitova should be twice the price they are now. Kvitova especially is based heavily on past performance at Wimbledon here, rather than the fact that she hasn't really performed all year now. Past performance should be taken into account of course, but not to the extent it currently is, when the form guide is heavily suggesting otherwise.
There's far better prices available on Azarenka, Kerber, Halep, Radwanska. Azarenka is @ 30s right now or was earlier and will probably be sub 20s after a round. There is no way Muguruza and Kvitova are so much bigger favourites than these group of players in reality.
There's far better prices available on Azarenka, Kerber, Halep, Radwanska. Azarenka is @ 30s right now or was earlier and will probably be sub 20s after a round. There is no way Muguruza and Kvitova are so much bigger favourites than these group of players in reality.
Agree with a lot of what you say. I actually got matched at 30 on Azarenka but again her price is based on uncertainty. She was injured at Roland Garros and pulled out prior to Nottingham recently. If she doesn't start, stake is returned, just the fact she starts I would expect to see her sub 25 for sure. Again, Halep pulled out prior to Birmingham starting. Birmingham has been a washout so I wouldn't take much notice of any results there. I would guess that some players will take an early loss just to get away from the place and avoid sitting around waiting for the rain to stop.
The fact Betfair did away with the non-runner stands rule makes it a lot more favourable to back players like that though. Plus by all reports she is practicing fine in Minsk anyway.
I will be surprised if Halep's injury is anything more than precaution too. What we have learned a lot in recent slams is it tends to come down to who performs well for that fortnight on the women's side, the actual form around it hasn't been a huge factor, it's about performing when it matters. With that in mind it seems far more favourable to stay away from the bandwagon favourites and hop more towards the less favoured favourites.
It's one thing that makes the women's outright in general a totally different game to the men's outright. In the men's game you know Djokovic and Murray will be around to the business end regardless which creates reasonably static prices, as prices won't budge much while such huge favourites are in the draw. Whereas in the women's draw half the favourites won't even make the QF's most likely.
I will be surprised if Halep's injury is anything more than precaution too. What we have learned a lot in recent slams is it tends to come down to who performs well for that fortnight on the women's side, the actual form around it hasn't been a huge factor, it's about performing when it matters. With that in mind it seems far more favourable to stay away from the bandwagon favourites and hop more towards the less favoured favourites.
It's one thing that makes the women's outright in general a totally different game to the men's outright. In the men's game you know Djokovic and Murray will be around to the business end regardless which creates reasonably static prices, as prices won't budge much while such huge favourites are in the draw. Whereas in the women's draw half the favourites won't even make the QF's most likely.
Only got to look at the last three grand slams on the womens tour. Pennetta, Kerber and Muguruza. Three first time winners. Add to that unexpected semi finalists and finalists...Bertens, Konta, Vinci. Pretty wide open on the womens side and a host of big serving dangers like Keys,Coco, Mladenovic, Lisicki and Venus to make Wimbledon pretty unpredictable.
How is Kvitova still single digits for Wimbledon?
Why is Kerber drifting?
Just doesn't make sense to me. The faith the market has in Kvitova seems somewhat unbelievable. Least I understand why the market has faith in Muguruza even if I don't agree with it.
Why is Kerber drifting?
Just doesn't make sense to me. The faith the market has in Kvitova seems somewhat unbelievable. Least I understand why the market has faith in Muguruza even if I don't agree with it.
As I posted them elsewhere. I will post them here too. Here is what I make prices for favourites approximately.
Serena 3
Muguruza 14
Azarenka 16.5
Kerber 18
Kvitova 18
Radwanska 19
Halep 24
Keys 34
I don't have any information on Halep's injury though, other than work on basis her withdrawal from Birmingham was a precaution.
Standout outsider is still Cibulkova @ 250.
Serena 3
Muguruza 14
Azarenka 16.5
Kerber 18
Kvitova 18
Radwanska 19
Halep 24
Keys 34
I don't have any information on Halep's injury though, other than work on basis her withdrawal from Birmingham was a precaution.
Standout outsider is still Cibulkova @ 250.
Regarding Kvitova, she is a 2-time winner of Wimbledon. It was only 2 years ago that she last won the title and grass is her fav surface. She is carrying a very slight leg injury at the moment and I don't think she was giving 100 per cent either at Birmingham or Eastbourne. Her price at the moment has more to do with the rest of the market. Serena very, very rarely has a warm-up tournament before Wimbledon, so it is difficult to gauge her form and fitness. Muguruza lost in the first round of her only grass warm-up tournament, straight sets to Kirsten Flipkins. I watched the match and she was dire tbh. I don't think she had much time to practice on grass beforehand but it was her home tournament and most people expected much more from her. Azarenka, been practicing in Minsk apparently, on grass, but impossible to know what her form and fitness are like. Kerber was knocked out of Birmingham by C S-N who has just been knocked out of Eastbourne by Misaki Doi. Halep has had no grass warm-up tournament. Keys just won Birmingham but didn't beat much. At least she has shown she is in form. Really not sure how you have her at 34. Raddy looked good today.
At the current prices best bet looks a lay of Muguruza around 6.8. Azarenka may be worth a back around 25. Half decent on grass and if fit she can play her way into form.
At the current prices best bet looks a lay of Muguruza around 6.8. Azarenka may be worth a back around 25. Half decent on grass and if fit she can play her way into form.
draw looks like as easy as it can be for Serena, though she can lose to anybody nowadays, the rest is completely unpredictable.
Womens tennis, anybody can lose to anybody, tbf. Muguruza lost her only grass court warm-up game this year in straight sets to Flipkens. She has got Giorgi, round one, who won the tournament at S'Hertogenbosch on grass last year. Possibly former Wimbledon semi-finalist Safarova in round three and former finalist, Lisicki in round 4, former champion Venus in the quarters. All that just to get out of her quarter and she is currently around 5/1 on the outright. Crazy.
Giorgi's form is atrocious though, and on bad days she isn't really a threat to anyone. That is probably a good draw for Muguruza on the whole.
Safarova another out of form player. Lisicki yet another out of form player. That draw won't stand up anything close to that probably.
I watched Muguruza play her match on grass v Flipkens in her home tournament. Muguruza didn't tank and she was useless, beaten in straight sets. Giorgi put up a more decent performance against Babos at Eastbourne. Giorgi also leads the h2h between the two of them. The price on here for Muguruza v Giorgi is 1.27 which makes her just over 4/1 for the outright if she wins her first match. Seems way too short on the outright.
i like madison keys chances . she won her prep race , has top draw form in the book when beating last months french open winner in rome , proven on the surface , unexposed ,progressive and 10-1 ish . looks good to me
Watched part of Key's match yesterday and she was serving bombs as usual and looked to have even more zip on her groundstrokes. As you say, one of the few with proven recent form on grass and improving all the time. Good luck.
I just could never back a "prospect" at a price like that without serious form suggesting otherwise, ie. having won big titles. Keys is still totally unproven at big match level.
Her draw isn't great either. Flipkens is tricky for R2. R3 is pretty soft, but beyond that it's tough. I don't see for example how you could back Keys as a favourite against Kerber who is in the same quarter, Keys is 10.5, Kerber 26.
Her draw isn't great either. Flipkens is tricky for R2. R3 is pretty soft, but beyond that it's tough. I don't see for example how you could back Keys as a favourite against Kerber who is in the same quarter, Keys is 10.5, Kerber 26.
I would never back keys at 10/1. I would at 50/1. Keys will lose her big serves once she come up with a top player. Flipkens will certainly make her play her best game. If keys wins comfortably i would consider a small bet. But at those odd its better to lay her.
It would pay to have a small bet on Sabine Lisicki at 50/1 easy first round win, and we all know she hit the most Aces at Wimbledon. Thats what i wold call value. A great run for your money. Her next opponent is Stosur and if she can come through that match the price will drop to 20/1 or less.
Good luck folks
It would pay to have a small bet on Sabine Lisicki at 50/1 easy first round win, and we all know she hit the most Aces at Wimbledon. Thats what i wold call value. A great run for your money. Her next opponent is Stosur and if she can come through that match the price will drop to 20/1 or less.
Good luck folks
Things not looking too bad now. Only really Keys left from the heavily overrated players by the market. Keys is still a crazy price outright though. 9s outright vs Kerber 10.5. But Keys is 1.85 to beat Halep, Kerber is 1.25 to beat Doi next round. Given Kerber is better than Halep on grass, surely Keys should be evens absolutely shortest vs Kerber in a potential QF, but in my book Kerber should be around 1.77 to beat Keys, we're almost certainly not getting that price though.
Cibulkova down to 15.5 now, big match vs Radwanska next though.
As SiG pointed out to me you can still get 45/1+ on Venus, Safarova, Shvedova, Suarez Navarro, and one of them has to make the SF in the bottom half, which means they will have a reasonable SF too on the other side of the draw to Serena.
Cibulkova down to 15.5 now, big match vs Radwanska next though.
As SiG pointed out to me you can still get 45/1+ on Venus, Safarova, Shvedova, Suarez Navarro, and one of them has to make the SF in the bottom half, which means they will have a reasonable SF too on the other side of the draw to Serena.
What's worth noting is Wimbledon has followed the general form guide. Expectations were far too high for some based on previous results, rather than their general form being far down from previous years (especially true of Kvitova and Lisicki). None of the upsets have really surprised me so far in the sense they were all people you could see struggling against the results expected for them.
My general feeling now is Serena will probably win, I just find it hard to pick who will actually beat her here, but there was plenty there in her last round against McHale that she's not at her impervious best.
My general feeling now is Serena will probably win, I just find it hard to pick who will actually beat her here, but there was plenty there in her last round against McHale that she's not at her impervious best.
What do you reckon to Coral's prices on the 2nd Quarter?
1/1 Radwanska
3/1 Cibulkova
That looks wrong to me unless you think Cibulkova is suddenly going to feel the pressure of being on the verge of a Wimbledon semi-final.
1/1 Radwanska
3/1 Cibulkova
That looks wrong to me unless you think Cibulkova is suddenly going to feel the pressure of being on the verge of a Wimbledon semi-final.
Well done to those and took Lisicki @50 she was excellent values which came down to 17/1 just as i mention in my previous post quick in out with a nice profit.
I think Cibulkova will beat Radwanska again, as her recent match with Rad the rain interrupted when Rad was up set and break if i am correct, and Cibulkova came back and beat her. As Cib is in good form and won that tournament.
I would take this opportunity since Ana KONJUH, nearly beat Radwanska if she didn't step on the ball and injure herself.
I think Cibulkova will beat Radwanska again, as her recent match with Rad the rain interrupted when Rad was up set and break if i am correct, and Cibulkova came back and beat her. As Cib is in good form and won that tournament.
I would take this opportunity since Ana KONJUH, nearly beat Radwanska if she didn't step on the ball and injure herself.
Jul 2, 2016 -- 10:46PM, differentdrum wrote:
What do you reckon to Coral's prices on the 2nd Quarter?1/1 Radwanska3/1 CibulkovaThat looks wrong to me unless you think Cibulkova is suddenly going to feel the pressure of being on the verge of a Wimbledon semi-final.
Well Radwanska is a dreadful price at this price isn't she. She's 8/11 to beat Cibulkova. You are basically guaranteed to get a better price just backing her to win her 2 matches.
Any thoughts on these?
I view Halep as even more vulnerable than Radwanska but so far she hasn't dropped a set and is being supported to beat Keys? Is this more about a presumed frailty in Keys?
Where has this run by Shvedova come from? As far as I could see she has hardly won a match all season. Now being backed to come through her next round as well.
Any chance that Vanderweghe could turn over Serena or is it a case of a big game against a much bigger game and she will need a massive amount of help?
On the other thread you mentioned that Radwanska might be able see off Cibulkova easily. I get the impression that Cibulkova is quite a strong character who isn't going to just wave a white flag if things aren't going well. If she did progress then like so many she hasn't got a very good record against Serena although looking on the optimistic side it is only 5 defeats to Radwanska's 10.
I view Halep as even more vulnerable than Radwanska but so far she hasn't dropped a set and is being supported to beat Keys? Is this more about a presumed frailty in Keys?
Where has this run by Shvedova come from? As far as I could see she has hardly won a match all season. Now being backed to come through her next round as well.
Any chance that Vanderweghe could turn over Serena or is it a case of a big game against a much bigger game and she will need a massive amount of help?
On the other thread you mentioned that Radwanska might be able see off Cibulkova easily. I get the impression that Cibulkova is quite a strong character who isn't going to just wave a white flag if things aren't going well. If she did progress then like so many she hasn't got a very good record against Serena although looking on the optimistic side it is only 5 defeats to Radwanska's 10.
To the first question it's how good you perceive Keys to be. For me Keys has been horrendously overrated by the outright, because despite some good results she really hasn't beaten that many top players. With that in mind it's already on hypotheticals that Keys is even favourite vs Halep, so I definitely wouldn't be in a rush to back here.
Nowhere really, but Shvedova was always a bit like that. Not sure getting backed down is to do with her, or just that Safarova hasn't looked very convincing.
There's a chance if Serena is under par for sure. At least she has the power to not just get overwhelmed from the baseline. Serena has already shown plenty of vulnerability vs McHale and this year in general. Its been discussed when did Serena last play a truly great match, has to be nearly a year ago now, with how far she was ahead of the field she's still going to win a lot, but it leaves her more vulnerable than in the past.
I said that comment more talking about the H2H. Radwanska once beat Cibulkova 6-0, 6-0 in a final to boot. I do think Cibulkova wins tomorrow though. Radwanska hasn't been that convincing, and has already used a get out of jail free card vs Konjuh. I think Cibulkova will have enough to get the job done though.
Finally, from a personal point of view I'd rather see Serena vs anyone other than Radwanska in that SF. Serena simply never loses to powderpuff players. It's just not an interesting match up from my point of view, and you saw another example today how she was able to demolish Beck after looking so iffy vs McHale the other day.
Nowhere really, but Shvedova was always a bit like that. Not sure getting backed down is to do with her, or just that Safarova hasn't looked very convincing.
There's a chance if Serena is under par for sure. At least she has the power to not just get overwhelmed from the baseline. Serena has already shown plenty of vulnerability vs McHale and this year in general. Its been discussed when did Serena last play a truly great match, has to be nearly a year ago now, with how far she was ahead of the field she's still going to win a lot, but it leaves her more vulnerable than in the past.
I said that comment more talking about the H2H. Radwanska once beat Cibulkova 6-0, 6-0 in a final to boot. I do think Cibulkova wins tomorrow though. Radwanska hasn't been that convincing, and has already used a get out of jail free card vs Konjuh. I think Cibulkova will have enough to get the job done though.
Finally, from a personal point of view I'd rather see Serena vs anyone other than Radwanska in that SF. Serena simply never loses to powderpuff players. It's just not an interesting match up from my point of view, and you saw another example today how she was able to demolish Beck after looking so iffy vs McHale the other day.
Keys has nearly everything to be a multiple slam winner. Very athletic , good off both wings and a massive serve. She is missing the most important ingredient though - a brain
Looks like I jumped the gun about Vandeweghe. Looks incredibly slow against an opponent who isn't that quick herself.
Now definitely looks the time to get out on Cibulkova @ 9.x outright and move your green elsewhere. After today's long match, I have no faith in her bouncing back and winning her QF tomorrow now.
Getting around 25/1 on Cibulkova to win her first rounds doesn't seem a bad deal.
Think she was around 1.4, 1.33, 1.64 and 2.3 to win he matches. That works out around 6/1. And it's not like her draw fell apart either.
Think she was around 1.4, 1.33, 1.64 and 2.3 to win he matches. That works out around 6/1. And it's not like her draw fell apart either.
Why Keys didn't take a time out today is baffling! I think dlarssonf's post at 9.46 must be spot on.
Very much hope you are wrong about Cibulkova. I have her in the overall (hoping Serena would self-destruct somewhere along the way) and to win her quarter. Obviously, a tough match like that isn't great news in terms of recovery but Vesnina had a pretty long match as well. Would probably have been preferable to play Makarova but she has won the last two against Vesnina.
Either way it looks as if Serena is unlikely to be threatened in the quarter or semi-final.
Either way it looks as if Serena is unlikely to be threatened in the quarter or semi-final.
Well you've got the preferable QF draw and the fact Vesnina played a long match after I posted now. But even so, I don't see Cibulkova going much further, and given I had little green on Serena, now was the time to get out for me.
It's more also that I don't think Cibulkova is really a good price anymore. When I posted she was 9.x with 3 matches to play and likely Serena looming in the SF's. That for me isn't/wasn't a good price anymore, as she should be like 5s vs Serena alone.
Players who just had a big win always tend to get backed in a bit artificially short in the outright. As they attract a lot of money straight after these big wins.
Jul 4, 2016 -- 6:57PM, dlarssonf wrote:
Cibby is getting married Saturday
true, but the week is yet TBD
Looks like you were spot on about Cibulkova. Serve just doesn't give her any cheap points and you need that if the rest of the game isn't there. Even below par I think she would have had chances against Makarova.
very well done with Cibu!
Hope we don't get a sister act in the final!
Hope we don't get a sister act in the final!
Don't know much about womens' tennis, but Kerber at 1.51 to beat venus Williams seems a decent price to me!
I think it's really hard to recover in a day from a match that was not only physically draining, but emotionally draining too with all the ups and downs. It clearly took a lot out of Cibulkova for today.
I think we will get Serena vs Kerber final. Looks likely Serena will win at this stage, even if Kerber winning is the absolute best result for me.
I think we will get Serena vs Kerber final. Looks likely Serena will win at this stage, even if Kerber winning is the absolute best result for me.
Any chance at all the Cibulkova ruined her chances with her wedding logistics? Surely that was playing on her mind as well. The having to change venues and dates and all the quests whose bookings would have been ruined. Not a good thing to do.
As for the women, its Serena's to lose. I am not taking any of the 1.45, having said that, its looking better to lay than at the last few slams where the 1.45 or lower looked more certain. So if luck would have it she will probably win from here.
I would love Vesnina or the older sister to win but that is my book talking.
As for the women, its Serena's to lose. I am not taking any of the 1.45, having said that, its looking better to lay than at the last few slams where the 1.45 or lower looked more certain. So if luck would have it she will probably win from here.
I would love Vesnina or the older sister to win but that is my book talking.
If they were both playing at their best I think Vesnina is just a better grass court player than Cibulkova. The serve advantage in itself is huge.
Vesnina had almost as long a fourth round as Cibulkova and a little less time to recover. I think the big problem for Cibulkova was that that she was coming off a string of wins where she needed to be consistently close to the top of her game because she doesn't get a huge percentage of easy points. What would you rather have a fantastic winner off a twenty stroke rally or an unreturned serve?
Wedding talk possibly not helpful but can't believe it had a significant bearing on the match.
Vesnina had almost as long a fourth round as Cibulkova and a little less time to recover. I think the big problem for Cibulkova was that that she was coming off a string of wins where she needed to be consistently close to the top of her game because she doesn't get a huge percentage of easy points. What would you rather have a fantastic winner off a twenty stroke rally or an unreturned serve?
Wedding talk possibly not helpful but can't believe it had a significant bearing on the match.
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