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Women's Wimbledon outright thread discussion. Was waiting for the movements after the French Open first before opening this. Will post the best prices available currently on players I talk about.
Serena 2.76. What I don't really get about Serena's price is she was 3.x before the French Open, she's been backed in on the back of French Open, and I'm not really sure why, she looked very beatable for much of the French, was eventually beaten, and there's even a few injury question marks now. You'd expect her to recover, but even so I don't think she should be shorter than 3 on the basis of recent results.
Muguruza 7/1 Was obviously going to get smashed in on the back of yesterday. I'm not convinced grass will actually suit her though despite making Wimbledon final last year. Her other results on grass have been poor, and for me she's ripe for an upset first week. Having seen her up close on grass, I think she finds grass very hard to move on, and despite her own powerful strokes, struggles to deal with power from the opposition on the surface. Also the market always follows a trend of smash in the latest bandwagon, yet the consistency of everyone bar Serena including Muguruza is very sketchy, so I'm not sure I really buy into the idea that she wins the French makes her so much more likely to win Wimbledon. Seems a poor price now that could drift if she loses early in Mallorca, but even if it doesn't, still seems a poor price.
Kvitova 7/1 This one to me seems truly dreadful right now. Obviously it's her best surface, but her form is so poor right now that I don't really get why she's this far up the betting. Kvitova has barely played a good match all year, let and out a tournament. To me she seems like she should be at least double this price right now. Not convinced at all that just because it's grass she will turn it on, and if you're going to be backing 7/1 you need to be pretty sure she's going to turn it on, because even if she was in form she wouldn't be much shorter than this.
Azarenka 19.5 Brought up yesterday that Kvitova and Azarenka seem too short outright during the French Open final. In the 24 hours since though Azarenka has drifted a lot. She was around 11s when I wrote that yesterday. Price seems more realistic now. You don't really know what you are getting back this right now. Could be way shorter after a match or two, but could be out also. No real information on her injury, no form to judge her on very recently, and a lack of match play if she goes in with no matches leave huge question marks. This probably isn't a lay, but at the same time it seems very risky business getting involved right now, albeit you now have the benefit of if she doesn't play you get your money back.
Kerber 26 This is the first one that stands out to me. Kerber started shorter than this to win the French despite clay being her worst surface. Kerber is good on grass, and tends to perform to a good level on it every year. She has a high seeding, and you would think a new found confidence in general with how her year has gone despite recent poor form. This seems a clear back to me before Birmingham where she could shorten a lot on he back of a good week. I would expect her to start sub 20s, and think she should be that price anyway.
Halep 28 Hard to call exactly what direction Halep is going right now. I wouldn't lay this. Halep isn't the grass mug she is sometimes perceived to be, and can certainly be a threat. Mentally there seem huge question marks right now, but I still feel like she should be a tad shorter than this.
Radwanska 33/1 I first picked out this one a few weeks ago. At the time it looked nailed on she would be #2 seed, which of course she now isn't on the back of Muguruza's French Open win. However I still think this is a good price. She still has a high seeding, and much like Kerber generally performs well on the grass. I am actually scratching my head a bit why this is so high, there's a general perception that these events are reasonably open right now, and there certainly seems nearly a dozen players you could see conceivably winning it right now. She started much shorter than this for the Australian Open, but I imagine most people would agree that her best chances have always appeared to be on grass to win a grand slam. This is another price I expect to shorten, however unlike Kerber, Radwanska has often performed poorly in Wimbledon warm ups, so maybe isn't guaranteed. But I'd definitely expect this to shorten once the event gets going.
From that I guess my general perception is that the field should be more closely grouped together than they currently are. It seems open to at least all of these players. I might talk about some outsiders further down the betting later. Just to mention one final price at the top of betting. Keys 25/1 Ever since Keys made that run in the Australian Open last year her prices for grand slams have come tumbling down. There's a bit of the Dimitrov/Raonic's about her prices now imo, in that she always starts a bit artifically short on the hype factor. I wouldn't want to back this when there are more proven players at even bigger prices, and wouldn't really want to back someone this short based on potential in general.
Probably the large outsider that jumps off at me right now is Cibulkova 260, that seems way too big when looking at a lot of the people above her in the betting.
Serena 2.76. What I don't really get about Serena's price is she was 3.x before the French Open, she's been backed in on the back of French Open, and I'm not really sure why, she looked very beatable for much of the French, was eventually beaten, and there's even a few injury question marks now. You'd expect her to recover, but even so I don't think she should be shorter than 3 on the basis of recent results.
Muguruza 7/1 Was obviously going to get smashed in on the back of yesterday. I'm not convinced grass will actually suit her though despite making Wimbledon final last year. Her other results on grass have been poor, and for me she's ripe for an upset first week. Having seen her up close on grass, I think she finds grass very hard to move on, and despite her own powerful strokes, struggles to deal with power from the opposition on the surface. Also the market always follows a trend of smash in the latest bandwagon, yet the consistency of everyone bar Serena including Muguruza is very sketchy, so I'm not sure I really buy into the idea that she wins the French makes her so much more likely to win Wimbledon. Seems a poor price now that could drift if she loses early in Mallorca, but even if it doesn't, still seems a poor price.
Kvitova 7/1 This one to me seems truly dreadful right now. Obviously it's her best surface, but her form is so poor right now that I don't really get why she's this far up the betting. Kvitova has barely played a good match all year, let and out a tournament. To me she seems like she should be at least double this price right now. Not convinced at all that just because it's grass she will turn it on, and if you're going to be backing 7/1 you need to be pretty sure she's going to turn it on, because even if she was in form she wouldn't be much shorter than this.
Azarenka 19.5 Brought up yesterday that Kvitova and Azarenka seem too short outright during the French Open final. In the 24 hours since though Azarenka has drifted a lot. She was around 11s when I wrote that yesterday. Price seems more realistic now. You don't really know what you are getting back this right now. Could be way shorter after a match or two, but could be out also. No real information on her injury, no form to judge her on very recently, and a lack of match play if she goes in with no matches leave huge question marks. This probably isn't a lay, but at the same time it seems very risky business getting involved right now, albeit you now have the benefit of if she doesn't play you get your money back.
Kerber 26 This is the first one that stands out to me. Kerber started shorter than this to win the French despite clay being her worst surface. Kerber is good on grass, and tends to perform to a good level on it every year. She has a high seeding, and you would think a new found confidence in general with how her year has gone despite recent poor form. This seems a clear back to me before Birmingham where she could shorten a lot on he back of a good week. I would expect her to start sub 20s, and think she should be that price anyway.
Halep 28 Hard to call exactly what direction Halep is going right now. I wouldn't lay this. Halep isn't the grass mug she is sometimes perceived to be, and can certainly be a threat. Mentally there seem huge question marks right now, but I still feel like she should be a tad shorter than this.
Radwanska 33/1 I first picked out this one a few weeks ago. At the time it looked nailed on she would be #2 seed, which of course she now isn't on the back of Muguruza's French Open win. However I still think this is a good price. She still has a high seeding, and much like Kerber generally performs well on the grass. I am actually scratching my head a bit why this is so high, there's a general perception that these events are reasonably open right now, and there certainly seems nearly a dozen players you could see conceivably winning it right now. She started much shorter than this for the Australian Open, but I imagine most people would agree that her best chances have always appeared to be on grass to win a grand slam. This is another price I expect to shorten, however unlike Kerber, Radwanska has often performed poorly in Wimbledon warm ups, so maybe isn't guaranteed. But I'd definitely expect this to shorten once the event gets going.
From that I guess my general perception is that the field should be more closely grouped together than they currently are. It seems open to at least all of these players. I might talk about some outsiders further down the betting later. Just to mention one final price at the top of betting. Keys 25/1 Ever since Keys made that run in the Australian Open last year her prices for grand slams have come tumbling down. There's a bit of the Dimitrov/Raonic's about her prices now imo, in that she always starts a bit artifically short on the hype factor. I wouldn't want to back this when there are more proven players at even bigger prices, and wouldn't really want to back someone this short based on potential in general.
Probably the large outsider that jumps off at me right now is Cibulkova 260, that seems way too big when looking at a lot of the people above her in the betting.
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n88uk
thanks for the write up and much appreciated though Serena is an obvious fav. Bookie statisticians will point out her lifetime average is probably slightly over one grand slam per year and grass is her best surface. The only negative would be her age and motivation. As for Mugu, currently, how many WTA players have gone on to win RG and wimbledons back to back? I think Serena has only done it twice in her 20 year career. Graf did it four times, though could not do it first time after her first 1987 RG victory. 8-1 is a terrible price for a person who has just won their first grand slam , overwhelming stats and history prove it, so i agree, 8-1 is poor price. As for Radwanska, she is the Giles Simon of the WTA! |
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dont think radwanksa has any chance of winning a slam, she missed the boat at wimbledon a few years ago
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grant, i take it you have shoved all yr mugu winnings on her for wimby?
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how about belinda? will she be playing out still injured?
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greed have u backed murray 2day
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depends which murray shows up, if he is slicing to novak's backhand more than 20% of the time he has a very very good shot
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Also I have always rated Murray a bigger talent than Djokovic. He has way more variation, spin and shot selection on his shots than Djokovic . However, the two biggest differences btw the two is that:
-Murray has piled on unnecessary muscle on his skinny frame causing him to 'work' harder on his shots - the boring brick wall that is novak has a MUCH better 2nd serve. novak has gone on record stating he doesn't touch weights or do unnecessary calisthenics exercises to preserve his longevity in the sport. Muzz should take note |
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You will get a trade much before the semi's. I don't get why she's this big a price already. I think she will get backed down by the time Wimbledon actually starts.
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Radwanska has a chance if things go her way. I don't think she will win a grand slam either, but her best chance is probably Wimbledon.
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GREEDISGOOD
Date Joined: 31 Jul 10 Add contact | Send message 05 Jun 16 12:31 Joined: 31 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,931 | Blogger: GREEDISGOOD's blog Also I have always rated Murray a bigger talent than Djokovic. He has way more variation, spin and shot selection on his shots than Djokovic . However, the two biggest differences btw the two is that: -Murray has piled on unnecessary muscle on his skinny frame causing him to 'work' harder on his shots - the boring brick wall that is novak has a MUCH better 2nd serve. novak has gone on record stating he doesn't touch weights or do unnecessary calisthenics exercises to preserve his longevity in the sport. Muzz should take note 3. Novak has best drugs. |
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no drugs just a brick wall who never misses.
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N88uk, great post. It's like reading the forum 10 years ago, when a bit analysis and reasoning was given behind most posts.
Totally agree about Serena. I was backing her at around 3.7/3.9 for the French as her recent clay court w/l record made the price look huge. At Wimbledon, even last year when winning, she was given a real scare by Heather Watson along the way and dropped an opening set to Azarenka. Year before that knocked out by Alize Cornet ffs, year before that knocked out by Lisicki. She is the default favourite but her price at the moment is stupidly short. More than once she has stated that she prefers clay to grass. Muguruza, I think her price is about right. Bit harsh to say that her form on grass before last year's final was poor. She was only 21 when she played the final. Her big serve obviously suits grass, her movement is improving all the time and she is the only person in the draw guaranteed to be in the opposite side of the draw to Serena. Your analysis of Kvitova is spot on. Difficult to make a judgement on Azarenka at the moment but if she turns up fit, she will be a danger. Radwanska, Kerber, Keys and of course Venus have all shown form on grass previously and there are a host of dangerous big servers to throw into the mix. Should be interesting. |
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Although I think Murray is an amazing tennis player I find it laughable that anyone could think he is more talented than Djokovic
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What I find amazing about Murray is that we are discussing him on a womens outright thread. Has he had the chop?
To me Serena looks about right price wise, form is good (ish) and from all accounts she has had an abductor injury in the French. But I will not be backing at these odds. She should win 1 slam at least in a calendar year so anything around 3's is about fair. Muguruza at 8's I think is about right too. Her serve is an asset and she did make last years final. So in a sense that shows form on grass. She also did start slowly in the French, nearly ousted in the first round against Schmiedlova. So maybe she is just lazy pre-tourney and needs the early rounds to get used to the new surface? With the possibility of a 1st round loss? The rest are a toss up for me, not sure on Kvitova (obvious form on grass) and I think Coco may be a roughy, from memory she did well last year here where she almost beat the Ice Queen in the quarterfinal. I thought she looked ok form wise too at the French on obviously a surface that does not suit her style. Anything over 100's on her is worth a punt. Azarenka... don't know what to make of her. Will give 100% if she is there but will she even make the tournament? If she drifts out to 30's I might have a nibble as she will always give a chance if she starts. Just some ramblings. |
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Agree Tyco. Of the 10 most recent threads on here, this is the only one dedicated to womens tennis and it is hijacked by boneheads who can't stop talking about men.
About Muguruza. She is entered to play in the very first Mallorcan Open, next week. Its a new grass court tournament and the field looks pretty weak. At the moment Ivanovic is the number two seed, Errani number three. As a Spanish player playing in the very first Spanish grass court tournament in a weak field, she really should get plenty of grass court match practice before Wimbledon. A decent showing by her there and by Kvitova in Birmingham, I can't see Serena starting too close to her current price. The current price for her is too short. As said before, she wobbled badly against Heather Watson last year and was put out of the tournament by Alize Cornet the year before and by Lisicki the year before that. Your shout of an SP around 3's wouldn't be too far off the mark. Serena has a great forehand and great backhand but Sam Sumyk had Muguruza hitting directly at Serena's feet a lot of the time, giving Serena little width. Serena's footwork adjustment is not the greatest. Will be interesting to see if this tactic is picked up on. You can make a case for plenty of lively outsiders this year. |
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Just as an addition to my earlier post. I wonder if Sharapova is worth a lazy bet because if she does play her odds will shorten dramatically... or will they. Will she be too underdone, or can she get some form in the first week of the slam to have a chance against the better players?
Maybe the 25's are a bit short, but at least its almost a free back because if she does not play you get money back. |
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Has she been covertly practicing on the grass courts?
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Forget what I just wrote last night. I see she has been banned for 2 years. Very likely not going to Wimbledon. I had seen her practice with her fitness trainer so trying to keep in shape etc...
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The results this week have somewhat supported my original post, yet the market prices aren't moving at all on the favourites. Muguruza and Kvitova are far too short at this point.
I actually think the 4 favourites right now are all bad prices. Serena seems a tad too short. Muguruza and Kvitova are mad prices, and what is theory behind Keys being 4th favourite exactly? Seems madness. |
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Betting to 129% on the outright at the moment. Market will be much more competitive nearer the off. Can't really judge Kvitova and Muguruza on their performances in Mickey Mouse tournaments. Muguruza said she has had no time to practice on grass due to spending a week giving interview after interview and Kvitova was carrying a slight injury and was apparently told on court by her coach, Frantisek Cermak, not to try too hard and be ready for her next tournament, according to a Czech poster on tennisforum.com. Serena should be a slightly longer price based on going out to Cornet and Lisicki at Wimbledon in recent times and nearly going out to Watson last year. Keys has seemingly been punted in, based on a couple of wins against Babos and Paszek. That is puzzling. A lot of uncertainty in the market at the moment. Maybe Eastbourne next week will give a few clues.
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I expect a bit of market correction because of the ovveround you say, but honestly the likes of Muguruza and Kvitova should be twice the price they are now. Kvitova especially is based heavily on past performance at Wimbledon here, rather than the fact that she hasn't really performed all year now. Past performance should be taken into account of course, but not to the extent it currently is, when the form guide is heavily suggesting otherwise.
There's far better prices available on Azarenka, Kerber, Halep, Radwanska. Azarenka is @ 30s right now or was earlier and will probably be sub 20s after a round. There is no way Muguruza and Kvitova are so much bigger favourites than these group of players in reality. |
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Agree with a lot of what you say. I actually got matched at 30 on Azarenka but again her price is based on uncertainty. She was injured at Roland Garros and pulled out prior to Nottingham recently. If she doesn't start, stake is returned, just the fact she starts I would expect to see her sub 25 for sure. Again, Halep pulled out prior to Birmingham starting. Birmingham has been a washout so I wouldn't take much notice of any results there. I would guess that some players will take an early loss just to get away from the place and avoid sitting around waiting for the rain to stop.
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The fact Betfair did away with the non-runner stands rule makes it a lot more favourable to back players like that though. Plus by all reports she is practicing fine in Minsk anyway.
I will be surprised if Halep's injury is anything more than precaution too. What we have learned a lot in recent slams is it tends to come down to who performs well for that fortnight on the women's side, the actual form around it hasn't been a huge factor, it's about performing when it matters. With that in mind it seems far more favourable to stay away from the bandwagon favourites and hop more towards the less favoured favourites. It's one thing that makes the women's outright in general a totally different game to the men's outright. In the men's game you know Djokovic and Murray will be around to the business end regardless which creates reasonably static prices, as prices won't budge much while such huge favourites are in the draw. Whereas in the women's draw half the favourites won't even make the QF's most likely. |
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Only got to look at the last three grand slams on the womens tour. Pennetta, Kerber and Muguruza. Three first time winners. Add to that unexpected semi finalists and finalists...Bertens, Konta, Vinci. Pretty wide open on the womens side and a host of big serving dangers like Keys,Coco, Mladenovic, Lisicki and Venus to make Wimbledon pretty unpredictable.
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How is Kvitova still single digits for Wimbledon?
Why is Kerber drifting? Just doesn't make sense to me. The faith the market has in Kvitova seems somewhat unbelievable. Least I understand why the market has faith in Muguruza even if I don't agree with it. |
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As I posted them elsewhere. I will post them here too. Here is what I make prices for favourites approximately.
Serena 3 Muguruza 14 Azarenka 16.5 Kerber 18 Kvitova 18 Radwanska 19 Halep 24 Keys 34 I don't have any information on Halep's injury though, other than work on basis her withdrawal from Birmingham was a precaution. Standout outsider is still Cibulkova @ 250. |
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Regarding Kvitova, she is a 2-time winner of Wimbledon. It was only 2 years ago that she last won the title and grass is her fav surface. She is carrying a very slight leg injury at the moment and I don't think she was giving 100 per cent either at Birmingham or Eastbourne. Her price at the moment has more to do with the rest of the market. Serena very, very rarely has a warm-up tournament before Wimbledon, so it is difficult to gauge her form and fitness. Muguruza lost in the first round of her only grass warm-up tournament, straight sets to Kirsten Flipkins. I watched the match and she was dire tbh. I don't think she had much time to practice on grass beforehand but it was her home tournament and most people expected much more from her. Azarenka, been practicing in Minsk apparently, on grass, but impossible to know what her form and fitness are like. Kerber was knocked out of Birmingham by C S-N who has just been knocked out of Eastbourne by Misaki Doi. Halep has had no grass warm-up tournament. Keys just won Birmingham but didn't beat much. At least she has shown she is in form. Really not sure how you have her at 34. Raddy looked good today.
At the current prices best bet looks a lay of Muguruza around 6.8. Azarenka may be worth a back around 25. Half decent on grass and if fit she can play her way into form. |
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Aza withdrawn
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Yeah, shame for her and for the tournament.
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draw looks like as easy as it can be for Serena, though she can lose to anybody nowadays, the rest is completely unpredictable.
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Womens tennis, anybody can lose to anybody, tbf. Muguruza lost her only grass court warm-up game this year in straight sets to Flipkens. She has got Giorgi, round one, who won the tournament at S'Hertogenbosch on grass last year. Possibly former Wimbledon semi-finalist Safarova in round three and former finalist, Lisicki in round 4, former champion Venus in the quarters. All that just to get out of her quarter and she is currently around 5/1 on the outright. Crazy.
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Giorgi's form is atrocious though, and on bad days she isn't really a threat to anyone. That is probably a good draw for Muguruza on the whole.
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Safarova another out of form player. Lisicki yet another out of form player. That draw won't stand up anything close to that probably.
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I watched Muguruza play her match on grass v Flipkens in her home tournament. Muguruza didn't tank and she was useless, beaten in straight sets. Giorgi put up a more decent performance against Babos at Eastbourne. Giorgi also leads the h2h between the two of them. The price on here for Muguruza v Giorgi is 1.27 which makes her just over 4/1 for the outright if she wins her first match. Seems way too short on the outright.
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invested some in over 39.5 games 2day