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i like madison keys chances . she won her prep race , has top draw form in the book when beating last months french open winner in rome , proven on the surface , unexposed ,progressive and 10-1 ish . looks good to me
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Watched part of Key's match yesterday and she was serving bombs as usual and looked to have even more zip on her groundstrokes. As you say, one of the few with proven recent form on grass and improving all the time. Good luck.
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I just could never back a "prospect" at a price like that without serious form suggesting otherwise, ie. having won big titles. Keys is still totally unproven at big match level.
Her draw isn't great either. Flipkens is tricky for R2. R3 is pretty soft, but beyond that it's tough. I don't see for example how you could back Keys as a favourite against Kerber who is in the same quarter, Keys is 10.5, Kerber 26. |
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I would never back keys at 10/1. I would at 50/1. Keys will lose her big serves once she come up with a top player. Flipkens will certainly make her play her best game. If keys wins comfortably i would consider a small bet. But at those odd its better to lay her.
It would pay to have a small bet on Sabine Lisicki at 50/1 easy first round win, and we all know she hit the most Aces at Wimbledon. Thats what i wold call value. A great run for your money. Her next opponent is Stosur and if she can come through that match the price will drop to 20/1 or less. Good luck folks |
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Things not looking too bad now. Only really Keys left from the heavily overrated players by the market. Keys is still a crazy price outright though. 9s outright vs Kerber 10.5. But Keys is 1.85 to beat Halep, Kerber is 1.25 to beat Doi next round. Given Kerber is better than Halep on grass, surely Keys should be evens absolutely shortest vs Kerber in a potential QF, but in my book Kerber should be around 1.77 to beat Keys, we're almost certainly not getting that price though.
Cibulkova down to 15.5 now, big match vs Radwanska next though. As SiG pointed out to me you can still get 45/1+ on Venus, Safarova, Shvedova, Suarez Navarro, and one of them has to make the SF in the bottom half, which means they will have a reasonable SF too on the other side of the draw to Serena. |
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What's worth noting is Wimbledon has followed the general form guide. Expectations were far too high for some based on previous results, rather than their general form being far down from previous years (especially true of Kvitova and Lisicki). None of the upsets have really surprised me so far in the sense they were all people you could see struggling against the results expected for them.
My general feeling now is Serena will probably win, I just find it hard to pick who will actually beat her here, but there was plenty there in her last round against McHale that she's not at her impervious best. |
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What do you reckon to Coral's prices on the 2nd Quarter?
1/1 Radwanska 3/1 Cibulkova That looks wrong to me unless you think Cibulkova is suddenly going to feel the pressure of being on the verge of a Wimbledon semi-final. |
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Well done to those and took Lisicki @50 she was excellent values which came down to 17/1 just as i mention in my previous post quick in out with a nice profit.
I think Cibulkova will beat Radwanska again, as her recent match with Rad the rain interrupted when Rad was up set and break if i am correct, and Cibulkova came back and beat her. As Cib is in good form and won that tournament. I would take this opportunity since Ana KONJUH, nearly beat Radwanska if she didn't step on the ball and injure herself. |
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Any thoughts on these?
I view Halep as even more vulnerable than Radwanska but so far she hasn't dropped a set and is being supported to beat Keys? Is this more about a presumed frailty in Keys? Where has this run by Shvedova come from? As far as I could see she has hardly won a match all season. Now being backed to come through her next round as well. Any chance that Vanderweghe could turn over Serena or is it a case of a big game against a much bigger game and she will need a massive amount of help? On the other thread you mentioned that Radwanska might be able see off Cibulkova easily. I get the impression that Cibulkova is quite a strong character who isn't going to just wave a white flag if things aren't going well. If she did progress then like so many she hasn't got a very good record against Serena although looking on the optimistic side it is only 5 defeats to Radwanska's 10. |
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To the first question it's how good you perceive Keys to be. For me Keys has been horrendously overrated by the outright, because despite some good results she really hasn't beaten that many top players. With that in mind it's already on hypotheticals that Keys is even favourite vs Halep, so I definitely wouldn't be in a rush to back here.
Nowhere really, but Shvedova was always a bit like that. Not sure getting backed down is to do with her, or just that Safarova hasn't looked very convincing. There's a chance if Serena is under par for sure. At least she has the power to not just get overwhelmed from the baseline. Serena has already shown plenty of vulnerability vs McHale and this year in general. Its been discussed when did Serena last play a truly great match, has to be nearly a year ago now, with how far she was ahead of the field she's still going to win a lot, but it leaves her more vulnerable than in the past. I said that comment more talking about the H2H. Radwanska once beat Cibulkova 6-0, 6-0 in a final to boot. I do think Cibulkova wins tomorrow though. Radwanska hasn't been that convincing, and has already used a get out of jail free card vs Konjuh. I think Cibulkova will have enough to get the job done though. Finally, from a personal point of view I'd rather see Serena vs anyone other than Radwanska in that SF. Serena simply never loses to powderpuff players. It's just not an interesting match up from my point of view, and you saw another example today how she was able to demolish Beck after looking so iffy vs McHale the other day. |
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Kerber is my pick for the womens, i think Serena is past.
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Keys has nearly everything to be a multiple slam winner. Very athletic , good off both wings and a massive serve. She is missing the most important ingredient though - a brain
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Looks like I jumped the gun about Vandeweghe. Looks incredibly slow against an opponent who isn't that quick herself.
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Now definitely looks the time to get out on Cibulkova @ 9.x outright and move your green elsewhere. After today's long match, I have no faith in her bouncing back and winning her QF tomorrow now.
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Getting around 25/1 on Cibulkova to win her first rounds doesn't seem a bad deal.
Think she was around 1.4, 1.33, 1.64 and 2.3 to win he matches. That works out around 6/1. And it's not like her draw fell apart either. |
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Why Keys didn't take a time out today is baffling! I think dlarssonf's post at 9.46 must be spot on.
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Very much hope you are wrong about Cibulkova. I have her in the overall (hoping Serena would self-destruct somewhere along the way) and to win her quarter. Obviously, a tough match like that isn't great news in terms of recovery but Vesnina had a pretty long match as well. Would probably have been preferable to play Makarova but she has won the last two against Vesnina.
Either way it looks as if Serena is unlikely to be threatened in the quarter or semi-final. |
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Well you've got the preferable QF draw and the fact Vesnina played a long match after I posted now. But even so, I don't see Cibulkova going much further, and given I had little green on Serena, now was the time to get out for me.
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It's more also that I don't think Cibulkova is really a good price anymore. When I posted she was 9.x with 3 matches to play and likely Serena looming in the SF's. That for me isn't/wasn't a good price anymore, as she should be like 5s vs Serena alone.
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Cibby is getting married Saturday
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Players who just had a big win always tend to get backed in a bit artificially short in the outright. As they attract a lot of money straight after these big wins.
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Looks like you were spot on about Cibulkova. Serve just doesn't give her any cheap points and you need that if the rest of the game isn't there. Even below par I think she would have had chances against Makarova.
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very well done with Cibu!
Hope we don't get a sister act in the final! |
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Don't know much about womens' tennis, but Kerber at 1.51 to beat venus Williams seems a decent price to me!
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I think it's really hard to recover in a day from a match that was not only physically draining, but emotionally draining too with all the ups and downs. It clearly took a lot out of Cibulkova for today.
I think we will get Serena vs Kerber final. Looks likely Serena will win at this stage, even if Kerber winning is the absolute best result for me. |
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Any chance at all the Cibulkova ruined her chances with her wedding logistics? Surely that was playing on her mind as well. The having to change venues and dates and all the quests whose bookings would have been ruined. Not a good thing to do.
As for the women, its Serena's to lose. I am not taking any of the 1.45, having said that, its looking better to lay than at the last few slams where the 1.45 or lower looked more certain. So if luck would have it she will probably win from here. I would love Vesnina or the older sister to win but that is my book talking. |
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If they were both playing at their best I think Vesnina is just a better grass court player than Cibulkova. The serve advantage in itself is huge.
Vesnina had almost as long a fourth round as Cibulkova and a little less time to recover. I think the big problem for Cibulkova was that that she was coming off a string of wins where she needed to be consistently close to the top of her game because she doesn't get a huge percentage of easy points. What would you rather have a fantastic winner off a twenty stroke rally or an unreturned serve? Wedding talk possibly not helpful but can't believe it had a significant bearing on the match. |