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PJ & Green Beards love nest
29 Sep 15 11:20
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Date Joined: 04 Jan 08
| Topic/replies: 623 | Blogger: PJ & Green Beards love nest's blog
hi

could someone please explain the relationship between match odds and set odds in 3 and 5 set matches please.

thank you
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Report Mike-lfc September 29, 2015 12:07 PM BST
a 1.36 shot would be like evens for 2-0 and 2/1 for 3-0... no idea about other prices. Thats just easy to remember
Report bb66 September 29, 2015 12:28 PM BST
match odds imply odds on winning single set, e.g. set odds of 1.3 lead to match odds of 1.156 (bo3) and 1.092 (bo5), 1.5--> 1.35 and 1.266, calculation has to be done with binomial distribution. Watching in play you have to think if what has happened so far changed odds of winning a set from pre match.
Report DStyle September 29, 2015 2:46 PM BST
assuming an equal probability of winning a single set.

bo3:

P(match) = P(set)^2 + 2* (P(set)^2 * (1-P(set))


bo5:

P(match) = P(set)^3 + (3* (P(set)^3 * (1-P(set))) + (5 * (P(set)^3 * (1-P(set))^2))
Report PJ & Green Beards love nest September 29, 2015 2:57 PM BST
thanks guys
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