Barclays ATP World Tour 2014 Finals Official thread

Wawrinka is in terrible form. Cilic's form at the US Open wasn't that unstoppable and he's not in that form anyway.

Djokovic is correctly priced given he's won 27 matches in a row indoors and the format basically dictates he will nearly always be in the semi-finals from his group. The prices say he will be around 4/6 to win from the semi-final stage, hard to argue against that really.

Nishikori looks value to beat Murray.

The only person I can see beating Djokovic is Federer. Murray's outright price is appalling given his difficult group and likely SF meeting with Djokovic if he gets out of it.

I expect Federer to win the whole thing

2 weeks ago an on-form novak got scraped off roger's shoe in shanghai like a piece of poo. Aggressive, confident, majestic tennis which roger was not playing in 2012 and '13 when novak beat him at this tourney. Roger's response to whether he will be #1 at year end shows he knows he is the best player in the world again... it doesnt matter whether i'm #1 this year or early next year (ie. I will return to #1). I would be very nervy backing novak at odds on when the outcome will be on roger's racquet.

Greedisgood: If Cilic plays like he did at the US open on that ridiculous form he'll wipe anyone including Djokovic.
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You let your excitment override your brains.!
You forgot who Djokovic is. Particularly when he delivers his best. Ask Nadal and Federer if you do not believe me!

n88uk   

Wawrinka is in terrible form. Cilic's form at the US Open wasn't that unstoppable and he's not in that form anyway.
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Wawrinka and Cilic are in their normal form. What they delivered in AO and USo was not normal!

Nov 8, 2014 -- 7:26AM, rarther wrote:

2 weeks ago an on-form novak got scraped off roger's shoe in shanghai like a piece of poo. Aggressive, confident, majestic tennis which roger was not playing in 2012 and '13 when novak beat him at this tourney. Roger's response to whether he will be #1 at year end shows he knows he is the best player in the world again... it doesnt matter whether i'm #1 this year or early next year (ie. I will return to #1). I would be very nervy backing novak at odds on when the outcome will be on roger's racquet.

How can you be so convinced Federer is the #1.

He won 0 grand slams to Djokovic's 1. 2 Masters 1000s to Djokovic's 4.

He's always enjoyed a reasonably good match up with Djokovic so it's no surprise he can beat him when he plays well, but he's unlikely to be able to keep up this level for much longer. On top of this despite how well Federer has played relative to last year, he's miles off his best. He no shows a lot of matches these days, it doesn't always cost him the match, but it can have an effect of tiring him out for later in the tournament. Such a performance probably will cost him vs the level of the opposition here, whereas Djokovic consistent level will have him cruise through his group.

Sorry but 4/5 Novak is ridiculous.  I bet against federer or wawkrinka you could get double or triple those odds inplay.

Plus having a baby waking you up all night can only affect one's alertness and perfomance

You have to look at the logic of the format though.

It's easier to win this format than a regular tournament. There are only 2 must win matches. It's nearly impossible for someone like Djokovic to go out in his group.

He's 1.11 to qualify from his group. That leaves him 1.65 on average to win from semi-finals onwards. He will be 1.2-1.25 vs anyone from that 2nd group except Federer. Vs Federer probably about 1.4-1.5 (depending how Federer looks). That gives you over 1.65, but when you factor in Federer has to get far enough to play Djokovic the price will be about correct.

If the absolute odds toughest route occurs and the semi's are Djokovic vs Murray, Federer vs Cilic I'd expect Djokovic to be around 1.75. And that's as tough as it can possibly be before the semi-final stage for Djokovic.

Your numbers add up n88 but the reason i believe novak is too short is because if/when he meets roger i believe instead of 1.5 he should be 2.0 or higher, based on the shift in momentum at wimbledon and shanghai, rogers resurgence, novaks first baby and his dodgy ankle last week. Stats, history, h2h, doesnt matter to me... roger has found the key to the door and has a brilliant chance to turn him over once more. 1.5 for novak to beat him is a joke and is why novak is way too short on the outright.

It reminds me of 2011 when novak kept annihilating nadal having suddenly mastered his punch from the back foot, but each time they met nadal was 1.3-1.5. While you could see after the first h2h of that run that power had shifted, it took several more h2hs for the markets to realise that momentum had shifted in the rivalry.

hope rartherbet can give me evens if they meet in F

group winners seem obvious, who comes 2nd?

djokovic is head and shoulders the number 1 player at the moment whatever delusions federer might have

gap is likely to widen too with djokovic only having a quarter final to defend in australia

am amazed Greed is Good thinks Novak does the baby thing at night. The child won't be within earshot!

am amazed Greed is Good thinks Novak does the baby thing at night. The child won't be within earshot!
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N88 still talking utter bollox I see?

Nishikori value to beat Murray at 3? are you having a laugh?

Murray in a tough group? kidding right, two rookies will be no threat at all, mark miwordz

match vs Fed in 2nd group game decides the group winner and who plays ND in the semi

very simple

Nishori great bet, and now might be the bet time to lay off .  Novak to beat cilic in 2 and wawa to beat novak great bets too.

we are all laughing on judorick

bravo sir, 'very simple' indeed

Nishi was excellent value, and yes I am aftertiming Market must have thought Kei bought his spot in the top 8 and Murray's the Murray of 2013, they've gone in opposite directions. I hope Judorick is ok

wd scan.   only like to back good value winners and followed in small.  fed in 2 against Raonic is good too.

novak 2-0 outright at 1.5 - good odds.

I totally, agree with that, 2-0 Djoko, why, well these 2 have played 10 times, of which Djoko, has won all 10, however in their 8 hard court matches, Djoko is leading Cilic by 16 sets to 2 and their last two closer matches were played on clay and grass.

Djokovic doesn't entirely convince me he is focused.  I still reckon he'll scrape 2-0 though,  Must be the baby keeping him up all night.

4/6 on djokovic outright is a total joke.  he clearly hasn't been practicing much since paris.

why no video  on betfair buts its on betfair moblie

#usopenchampion

fed looked good today.

looks like a toss up between fed, novak and wawa for the title.

andy murray will beat Raonic in 2 tonight. strong bet

I reckon he'll struggle.

GREEDISGOOD   
Djokovic doesn't entirely convince me he is focused. ....Must be the

Cell 1	Cell 2
Cell 3	Cell 4

baby keeping him up all night.
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novak is not at his best, but i predicted he would still win in straight.  I mean all he had to do was get he ball over the net against Cilic, as he was so poor.  I;m here to make money not be drawn into childish 'who's right and who is wrong' insults.  Against fed it looks like a 50-50

Gota fancy cilic on berdychs last performance

djoc, 88 per cent strike rate hard court,took 1.82.

Nov 12, 2014 -- 10:07AM, The Bhoys wrote:

Gota fancy cilic on berdychs last performance

Did you see Cilic's last performance too? They were both terrible.

Berdych and cilic will be much more free flowing in the library atmosphere this afternoon, no pressure at all. I think berdych will have the upper hand as he is a veteran of the event and will know this is his only chance to salvage pride before djoko pummelling.

Couldnt have been more wrong about it being free flowing... horrible disjointed match so far.

Very dull tennis, no wonder the crowd's so flat each point is too quick

How did Cilic ever win anything

He regularly wins biggest MUG of the year

novak v wawa? who wins?  I can decide on this. It all depends on who is having a good day.  Wouldn't be surprised if wawa won in straight nor be surprised if Nova won it straight .. who wins?

bye bye stan 4.2 lay.

crushed.

Fed in two. That will be a boring beatdown imo. Nishikori to drop a set and win 2-1. any opinions?

Will Fed tank against Murray if he has already qualified depending on the Nishikori/Raonic result...

Fed will want to win the group for avoiding Djoker in SF, and he won't want to waste energy

Raonic has withdrawn. This news is bad for Murray. He must now beat Federer or he's out. Outright hasn't really adjusted to this yet either. Murray should be drifting and Nishikori should be coming in.

ferrer replaces him, does ferrer take raonic's current standing?

No.

Ferrer can't qualify. First tiebreak is matches played.

Ferrer, bizarrely enough, can still progress if he beats Nishikori and Roger Federer beats Andy Murray later on. The Spaniard takes the results of Raonic, who lost both his round-robin matches.
Meanwhile, Japan's Nishikori, having beaten Murray in the World Tour Finals opener on Sunday, could lose in straight sets and still progress - although that would have to depend on the result of Federer-Murray.

He can't qualify. Whoever wrote that is talking rubbish.

These are the scenario's:
Ferrer win, Federer win: Federer 1st, Nishikori 2nd
Ferrer win, Murray win: Murray 1st, Federer 2nd
Nishikori win, Federer win: Federer 1st, Nishikori 2nd
Nishikori win in 2, Murray in 2: Games % between all of Federer, Nishikori, Murray
Nishikori win in 2, Murray in 3: 1st Federer, 2nd Nishikori

Nishikori win in 3, Murray in 2: Murray 1st, Federer 2nd
Nishikori win in 3, Murray in 3: Federer 1st, Nishikori 2nd

telegraph posted it

So he definitely doesn't take Raonic's record? I was just reading tipsy took murray's standing three years ago when he pulled out,

He definitely doesn't take Raonic's record.

That has never been the rule.

As far as I am aware.

Matches played become the second tiebreak after matches won in 1998 according to Greg Rusedski.

*second way to define the standings after matches won.

fair enough I couldn't recall it either, but was reading this  too

On-site alternate Janko Tipsarevic of Serbia will take Murray's place for the final two group matches against Tomas Berdych and world number one Novak Djokovic, and will inherit the Briton's record so far.
https://eurosport.yahoo.com/22112011/58/atp-world-tour-finals-injured-murray-pulls-tour-finals.html

So what is the point in Ferrer playing if he can't qualify?

200 points to win. £155k to win.

Nov 13, 2014 -- 2:54PM, scandanavian_haven wrote:

fair enough I couldn't recall it either, but was reading this  too On-site alternate Janko Tipsarevic of Serbia will take Murray's place for the final two group matches against Tomas Berdych and world number one Novak Djokovic, and will inherit the Briton's record so far.https://eurosport.yahoo.com/22112011/58/atp-world-tour-finals-injured-murray-pulls-tour-finals.html

Media often a bit muggery on these type of things.

That didn't happen anyway.

Nov 13, 2014 -- 3:17PM, n88uk wrote:

200 points to win. £155k to win.

$ rather.

Wasn't entirely impressed with Fed.  Something was wrong with Muzz today, like he didn't really care or was not that motivated.  Fed was just fed, I'd fancy Wawrinka to beat him or run him close given what I have seen so far.  Fed never had any long rallies today, given must of the time murray just dumped it into the net, and he was lucky in a sense, given that's his weakness.

Given what on what I saw today, Novak should be able to beat Fed (pains me to say given the stupid odds on novak)),  Everytime Fed will try to go to the net Novak should be able to pass him.  I'll get some flack from n88 or yyyy but it is just my honest opinion and analysis.

really poor tournament with Wawa making the SF

Without Fed or Novak.  I reckon Wawrinka could of gone unbeaten vs murray or Raonic.  As it happens Wawrinka is a bit inconsistent, though, for some reason I still fancy him to beat Federer.  Call me crazy, but his style this year  matches up well with fed's to give him all sorts of problems.

If you really dont want to win a match you wont win it. Psychological factors... 1) stan is not close to his best and will not want to get humiliated by novak again on an even bigger stage. 2) Having his ass handed to him earlier in the tourney will make him feel like he doesnt really deserve to be here. (Something roger spoke about before tournament). 3) stan has a terrible h2h with roger and he openly states roger is a god. Stan is a teammate and a well-wisher. I think it will be an unhumiliating but swift 6-4 6-4.

I;m strictly on form.  Upsets happen unexpectedly now in tennis and with fed, that;s what age does.  Every time I have seen roger play excellently this year he can never keep it up for the next match.  i.e. look at paris as just one example.  Both Fed and wawa are unpredictable. worth taking on fed with a small bet on wawa.

@BenRothenberg Question has to be asked does London deserve to host the ATP tour world finals.

No way should Federer be 4.5 to beat Djokovic. The market is way too reactive to what happened in the last match. Djokovic showed a vulnerability today as well. Got annoyed with the crowd, and it will be way worse tomorrow.

YOMOMMA
@BenRothenberg Question has to be asked does London deserve to host the ATP tour world finals.
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My answer is: NO.
They should be banned for 10 years at least.

Backed roger @ 5.1 pre tourney and after winning 8 of 9 sets and making final he is 4.4. That's soooo long! If anything his near miss should see him come down because he feels like he has an extra life and goes on to play with little pressure like in shanghai

gl with that,im on djoc .82 outright.roger done well 3 match points against,won through.

From both 4 games in both players' matches, I'd expect a bagel or bagguette from Novak.  Federer's timing has been a bit suspect all tourni and was nearly found out.  You can visibility see federer is ageing, his face is gaunt and leg's have lost muscle density.  Novak this summer has been dreadful but now he has improved enough to regain 2011 form ; he is faster, stronger, has better timing  and more flexible than fed.  IF the crowd do not rattle Novak like they did in the 2nd against nishi, this will be one way traffic I'm afraid.  Like I predicted about the Wawrinka Fed match (and just came up short ) - this time Federer will be comprehensively outplayed

who cares who wins is fecking boring. courts are too slow.

novak will win a boring one sided beatdown.  not sure if i want to watch it too.

ive been paid out on djoc.