the Dominic Thiem thread

after his 1st 2 wins on grass at a new career high #28, maybe even #26 next week, but for being seeded in NY he has to defend 150 pts from Kitzbuhel's final last year till then - possible, but not a walk in the park. Playing DC this week in Kitzbuhel (versus NED with 2 times winner here Haase), then Umag, Gstaad, and Kitzbuhel, probably seeded top 4 every time, followed by ATP1000 events in Montreal and Cinci.

horrible match today. it's a small miracle he's at a career high atm.

big shame as venue and surface was chosen to please him. Probably he couldn't stand the pressure of #1 at home. Failing on key points an issue through the whole season!

what did you think about his second match? still the mental pressure? it was kinda (...) he didn't win a single set with all the support.

He played better than on Friday, but Haase was on top when it mattered. Maybe it even would have been better to nominate Melzer with his 4-0 h2h vs Haase. Being 0-4 now in DC doesn't help either.

In all he's not playing a good season, being ranked 26th now with that is the best you can get out of it.

While I thought he would lose vs compatriot AHM in Umag QF the win vs Monfils in SF has already almost secured seeding for US-O. Deserved fav in final due to h2h, though Odds maybe a bit low.

you know more about thiem than me, but I think he'll win his 2nd here. He looks good, the kid.

I did Dominic Thiem Wettquoten. Am I going to win?

Thiem breaks first. *4-3

Dominic Thiem wettquoten incoming.

Dominic Thiem wettquoten landed.


EVENT / SELECTION MARKET / ODDS SETTLEMENT DATE STAKE (£) MARKET P&L (£)
TENNIS
D Thiem vs J SousaTotal 22.526/07/2015£172.89£161.22
D Thiem vs J SousaPoint Spread -2.526/07/2015£165.62£160.50

very solid result (and level of play) following the DC debacle.
I wonder if Austrians don't feel a bit bitter after the last 10 days.

ranked 24th now and 22nd in race. Let's see if he adopts better to altitude now for the next 2 weeks.

Next final in Gstaad, once more playing his nemesis Goffin now. Thankfully Goffin withdrew from Kitzbuhel, making Thiem #1 seed, where he might play AHM again in r2. Having to defend not much more but his US-O 4th round for the rest of the year he might approach and even sneak into top 20 by the end of the year, esp with his home tournament in Vienna upgraded to a 500-event.

Having won Gstaad and being ranked 21 (15th in race), top 20 looks likely before US-O, transition to HC will decide if he'll keep it for end of the year.

17th after SF in Kitzbuhel, now it's even possible to be seeded top 16 for US-O, though it's not easy unless someone ahead withdraws.

again 2 r1 defeats in the pre US-O 1000 events, his results in big tournaments being rather poor this year apart from Miami

I think this man will knock Murray out in the 4th. #justsayin'

not sure Mugray will go that far, but Anderson likely to beat Thiem before.

r3 exit vs Anderson makes him lose 90 pts, but he still is 20th (18th in race). He has 90 pts to defend for the rest of the season, his planned schedule being St Petersburg, Beijing, Shanghai, Vienna, Basel, and Paris. While he might win more than those 90 pts, I doubt he will win enough to improve his ranking to 16 for AO seeding.

finishing the season with another loss to Anderson in r2 at Bercy 7-6(3), 6-7(4), 6-7(5). 1st time he came close to Kevin (h2h 0-4), but he even should have won, when he broke early in set 2, but failed to serve out missing on mp.

Summing up the season he started at #39, finishing at 19 (with an intermediate career high of #18) can't be called bad (while his score of 1600 wouldn't have been enough to award him top 20 in any of recent years), but it wasn't a clean run at all. He achieved a W-L of 36-26 on the tour, 1-1 in his only challenger and 0-2 in DC at home. He managed to reach his pre season targets (top 20 ranking and winning a tournament), which really did surprise me, as his preparation for the season was disturbed and he lacked his 2014 consistency from the start. After a W-L of 3-6 he dropped out of top 50 after IW, but immediately came back with a surprising QF in Miami (beating Lopez on the way). But this success was followed by unexpected losses on his favourite surface vs Pouille, Estrella Burgos and even G Melzer (in rain delayed Munich QF, which made him miss Madrid, where he was forced into qualies). After advancing to r3 in Rome vs a retiring Simon the tournament win in Nice was another surprise, while his r2 exit at RG vs Cuevas was to be expected on paper. His grass swing was only slightly better than the year before, scoring his first 2 wins on the surface. Returning to clay he lost to de Bakker and Haase in DC, but the had his run of success winning Umag and Gstaad followed by a SF in Kitzbuhel. Not surprisingly he started into the American HC swing with 2 losses, followed by a r3 at US-Open, and the rest of the season was mediocre as well.

Looking closer into his results from a statistical point of view he was 4-4 at GS level and 8-8 at ATP 1000s, but 3-0 in his finals (all 250s). He scored 0-3 vs top 10 players, the highest ranked beaten were Simon (on retirement) and Lopez at #12, Gulbis @ 13 and Goffin @ 14. The complete statistcs (0-3 vs top 10, 8-8 vs #11-#20 (including 2 wins on retirement), 4-1 vs #21-#30, 5-3 vs #31-#50, 16-8 vs #51-#100, 4-6 vs #100+) underline his inconsistency over the season. While on clay he proved he can beaat top 20 playerson clay (5-1 with the loss coming from Wawrinka), it looks to me like he didn't have made any progress on hc.

He knows he has to target the bigger events to further improve his ranking. What is your opinion? Can he develop an allround game, or will he remain a clay courter who is limited on hc and therefor fail to make top 10? What changes should he make to his game, or is his head limiting his progress currently?

mesmerised   07 Feb 15 13:42 


^Have you considered following Dennis Novak as well, currently #312



He's currently ranked 217 and playing clay challengers in South America. After winning 6 ITF futures this season (5 on clay) he now seems to start getting some decent results on challengers too. Like Thiem he trains in the Bresnik camp (with Thiem's father). He probably will spend 2016 mainly on the challenger tour, if he progresses well he may try to establish himself on the main tour 2017.

Thiem plans to start the season in Brisbane and Sydney prior to Melbourne. As he has only 25 pts knocked off before Miami it is likely he will achieve a career high ranking dzring the first part of the season, though he will need SFs in 250s to improve, which won't be easy in Brisbane and Sydney. But being seeded in Melbourne r3 scoring 80 pts is the minimum target, and doing well in Rotterdam and Dubai 500s could be enough for a top 16 ranking and seeding in IW and Miami. If he does well there this could be the base for establishing himself in the top 16, as there are enough chances to score heavily on clay before his 3 tournament wins will be knocked off.

I was surprised he beat Cilic in Brisbane QF, now he's rewarded witha match against the GOAT

tough AO draw with L Mayer in R1, Goffin in R3 and Fed in R4

win or lose i think Dom will go top 10. he has all the talent required.
slam win not out of the question but either way he's a talented lad.

lost to Goffin in 4 sets, he still doesn't like to play him. He still might improve his career high ranking (18), but the gap to #16 increased.

He's going to play on clay now at the Golden Swing, probably the easiest way to earn ranking points, so it's not unlikely he will be seeded in IW and Miami (as we know Fed won#t play Miami, and probably someone ahead in rankings will miss IW due to injury).

I'm sure he has top 10 potential (not sure about top 5), but that's not all required (ask Dimitrov or Fognini). And I think he won't make top 10 this year, the gap is too big, and the old generation still won't go without fighting, so if the season developes very well I see him at #12 at the end, but it's also possible he suffers a bad spell and finishes outside top 16.

Goffin is no mug, very good player in fact so no disgrace. must admit i thought he would have progressed a little quicker
but he still looks a bit weak physically and lots to build on.

beating Nadull on clay in BA SF is his 2nd win against a top 10 player (the 1st being Wawa in Madrid '14)

He's still a good clay court player. Capable on hard court, but still very vulnerable. I feel he goes to Roland Garros with a good chance of going pretty deep.

I liked the ATP headline, Argen-Thiema

While his 4th 250 tournament win doesn't improve his ranking, it takes him closer to top 16, and it should be a confidence boost. Being 7-2 in tbs and 6-0 in deciding sets this year shows he has already regained some mental strength and fighting ability, which he seemed to have lost last year, though in some matches the necessity to play a deciding set against weaker opposition was mainly due to lapses in concentration.

What will be crucial is not having to wait 10 matches again till he beats another top 10 player!

Looks like the Austrians got themselves a new Muster

Probably Thiem plays the part of Fognini from last years in 2016. Though he should be more consistent, I don't think he'll challenge the real big guns, RG SF at best, QF more likely. Don't know his planned schedule for the European clay court season, maybe he targets the one Djoker will ignore. He's top 16 now, I'd skip Acapulco nowand concentrsate on IW and Miami.

I think he's more solid than Fognini. He's got a real chance to target top 12 in the world by the end of this year. Kevin Anderson is struggling so he'll be dropping down the rankings. But I guess Del Potro will be on the move and could find himself in the top 20 by this time next year

12th is what I considered is possible for Thiem at the end of the season if he does really well, at the moment it looks like he's on the the right way.

and yes, he is more solid, I meant it the way he is able to beat the best on clay sometimes.

Potro, it's way to early to know whether he is able to play at high level for a whole season after those long breaks due to surgeries.

things are looking nice for him at the moment. I guess only time will tell!

While he showed last week that he can win after a great match, he couldn't do it this time, imo more physical than mental weakness this time. So I don't know why he's going to Acapulco, I see again troubles coming up for Austrian DC team, I hate the games Bresnik is playing using Thiem as his pawn just the same way Leitgeb did with Muster, when Bresnik coached Skoff. I hoped this would be done when Leitgeb retreated from leading the Federation.

Tursunov is big value tobeat Thiem tonight, looks like you should get 6.5-7

Hope you had a good trade!

Haven't seen Dimi recently, but @2.6x value should be with Thiem, though I admit it's hard for me to prize that match

After beating Dimi 7-5 6-2 he is now fav for the tournament win, Querrey is the bigger threat in SF imo, but 1.8 looks about right.

Surprisingly easi beating Querrey 6-2, 6-2 and winning against Tomic being a break down in all 3 sets giving him the first title on HC and on 500 level. Career high #14 (top 16 should be secured till July), 3rd in race won't stand the test of time. Next points dropping off in Miami (180).

Now playing DC on hard in Portugal, never done well in this competition so far.

He's gone down in my estimation after realising he supports Chelsea!

I think Thiem can fill the void left by Nadal, Corin can be the next Djokovic and Zverev be the next Roger. I know these look unrealistic but surely these players can come close to the current big 3.

what sense does it make Portugal playing Austria on a hard court? What are they playing on what they consider to be Thiem's weaker surface yet Gastao Elias cant even win a match on a hard court, at least he is quite a solid player on clay and he would have had much more of a chance to beat Thiem on clay if he had a bad day.

They probably hope Sousa can beat Thiem on HC, and you have to remind choice of surface had to be made months ago.

Mar 4, 2016 -- 9:26AM, bb66 wrote:

They probably hope Sousa can beat Thiem on HC, and you have to remind choice of surface had to be made months ago.

Not only that, they probably thought Elias can beat him too

Finally Thiem has scored his first wins in DC against Potugal (3-2 vs Elias and in doubles, 3-0 vs Sousa). Now back in America, I'm not sure if he has fully recovered, so while he should beat qualifier Kovalik without any problem, 1.1 is no value. The likely following opponents Sock and Tsonga won't be easy.

not playing really well in IW, 7-6, 7-6 vs Kovalik not impressive, 7-5, 6-7, 6-1 vs Sock was ok, but without any chance vs Tsonga (3-6, 2-6), I didn't understand why odd were almost evens for this match.

dropping 1 place from career high #13 after IW as Raonic overtook him, which isn't surprising.

Not a good draw in Miami being seeded only 14 (he was 11 in IW), Estrella Burgos (h2h 1-1) or Groth in R2, F Lopez (or maybe Sousa) in R3, then running against Djoker. With Estrella not having too good a season and Lopez suiting him he should make it to R4, but he will have to fight for it, then expect game over.

End of Thiem.

End of thread.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeLSVlMWoAINRXe.jpg:large

I can't believe Thiem is sub 1.2 vs Groth, he is not known to be a great returner. Groth not with a good w/l record this season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a tb, which Groth is able to win. 1.35 more realistic imo.

Beating Groth after wasting 8bps in set 1 breaking on his 3rd 0-40 lead doing a comfortable set 2. After Sousa being promoted to a seeded slot and qualifier Nishioka beating Lopez he had an easy ride into rd4, now waiting if Sousa can beat Djoker to open his road. With Fed withdrawing and LL Zeballos eliminating delPo Goffin is threatening Goffin is threatening his #13 ranking.

super talent, dominated an all be it off par djokovic, came of age last night, this kid will be competing for grand slams before long.

Thiem didn't play bad vs Djoker, but didn't take his chances. You don't often get 15 bps vs Djoker, but winning only 1 (donated by a df) is poor on the other hand. And Djoker won't do 9 dfs next time! Djoker was off his best by far, but the odds told a story, not dropping much after 1st set, that Thiem was a dangerous opponent able to win a set.

As it had to be expected after the withdrawal of Fed and the loss of Ferrer Goffin overtook him in WRL. I would be satisfied with him reaching the QF at RG this year, let's at first look how he performs in the big tournaments till then. He never won a match in MC, then he plays Munich (don't know why he still follows the schedule of a journeyman), probably followed by Madrid and Rome. I hope he doesn't defend his Nice title.

Thiem will definitely be competing for the Top position in the coming years and it's players like him that can stop Novak from overcoming Roger's grandslam record. Thiem, Zverev, Coric, Fritz are the future but apart from Thiem no one else is ready to beat Novak now, they need atleast a year.

Bresnik saying Thiem is scheduled to play Nice as well, on the other hand he said he wants him going into RG with 15 matches on clay. But if Thiem proceeds like he should do on paper, that schedule means 19 matches at least

MC draw looks very easy till r3, but as he never has won a match there, odds off 1.15 vs Struff (h2h 0-1 from Auckland Jan '15) can't be value. R3 opponent should be Nadull again (h2h 1-1). Outright market has Nadull still as 2nd fav (which looks ridiculous to me), and Thiem as 6th.

After losing to Nadull in MC rd 3, Kohli in Munich final and delPo in Madrid rd 1 (which of course was an unfortunatley hard draw), rd 3 in Rome brings up another biggie with Fed. It's their 2nd match and the 1st on clay. Of course he will have to do better on break opportunities if he wants to win it. This was again his weakness being defeated by Nadull and delPo.

Due to his failure in Madrid it looks very unlikely he'll make a top 12 seeding for RG (Munich doesn't count for the moment), so he is likely to meet one of the top 4 seeds in rd 4. Therefor I can't understand why he is 7th fav on the outright market.

Zverev called Thiem a right-handed Nadal. Excellent comparison by someone who has played against both men and knows his stuff.

He even has a deep uuuuuughh grunt after every stroke just like Rafa They're so alike. If he wasn't beating Alex Zverev every week because of his superior fitness and whipping heavy topspin forehand I'd become a fan.

I love that deep long grunt after every shot. So sexy

They showed a statistic. Zverev and Thiem are about split evenly on short points while Thiem outlasts the young German big time in the longer rallies

draw opens up more and more, Granollers, then Goffin/Gulbis/Almugro

hello Grand Slam semifinals!

took advantage of the withdrawals of Nadull and Tsonga, his luck it happened on his strongest surface, so he went into his 1st SF in a GS or ATP 1000, which make him advance into the top 10 as well at #7. He has a real chance now staying in the top 10, maybe even qualify for WTF in London, though I think that's unlikely unless he shows improvement on grass as well.

What surprises me most is his climbing in rankings almost without any setback since the start of 2014, I thought he would have to face an unsuccessful period before arriving where he is now.

Looking at his schedule he will have to adopt it to his ranking, I can't see any sense in playing a 250 in Mexico during Olympics, as even a win there will score him no points almost for sure playing Hanburg, Kitzbuhel and Vienna as well.

Disgraceful performance from Goffin really had Thiem on the ropes and gave it away should have won that match in 3 sets FFS

was it poor from Goffin or strong from Thiem coming back? Not sure Thiem wouldn't have turned around even from 0-2 sets.

question @carambastats: When did a player younger than Thiem today advance into top 10 last time?

May 28, 2016 -- 1:29PM, mouse trap wrote:

hello Grand Slam semifinals!

.

He broke Djokovic by shanking a forehand right into the corner. Nadal would be proud of his mini version.

Jun 2, 2016 -- 10:18AM, bb66 wrote:

question @carambastats: When did a player younger than Thiem today advance into top 10 last time?

Raonic?

checked now, Raonic and Dimitrov where 23 already, found delPo in 2008 (2 weeks after 20th birthday) and Gasquet in 2007 @ 21, then we had of course Nadull in 2005

Raonic made top 10 August 12, 2013 (after making Canadian Open final). His birthday is December 27, 1990, so less than 23.

sry, missed that 1 week, ok, so he was 2 weeks younger than Thiem then.

Winning in Stuttgart on grass beating Groth, Youzhny, Fed and Kohli is a real surprise. While it doesn't mean much rankingwise, the improvement on this so far very weak surface is another big step forward, if he can confirm it. In addition it will obtain him a better seeding in Wimb, though top 8 is still unlikely. Doing well in Wimb would really open the chance for YEC.

In Halle he is drawn to play Sousa, Gabashvili, and in QF again Kohli or Karlovic.

Now with another SF in Halle (shame he lost to F Mayer) and Nadull out it might be enough to be seeded 8th, though it's gonna be close with Berdy, didn't make real calculation.

seeded #8, but a difficult draw with F Mayer in R1, Vesely/Q in R2, Sousa in R3, Berdych (Zverev, Youzhny) in R4. R1 likely the most difficult match of the first week, if he makes it thus far I predict R4 to be the end of the journey.

Won his most tricky potential matchup, and opening in the draw possible for him (others not looking great in his section). All good.

Blimey, Vesely looked like a GOAT against him there - crazy game sometimes...

djoc v mugrey final Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

An excellent 1st half of the season proved enough due to the injuries of Federer and Nadull and Berdych (along with lack of form to the finish) to scrape through to the WTF, but with recent form this threatens to become a desaster. On the other hand almost all players seem to be off their best, even Mugray's form shows sign of dropping after Shanghai, only Cilic playing at his best. Maybe to predict the winner it's best to roll a die.

it's good progress this season. providing he recovers well during the offseason, Thiem could be a shock finalist at the French Open 2017

Wouldn't be a real shock. But I hope he will schedule the season till then more sensible, otherwise he will again have no gas left for the 2nd half. As he has much to defend till RG a good start down under would be crucial.

Raonic really dwarfed him at the O2. Thiem younger, shorter, lighter, smaller frame, weaker service.

not a big shame, as Raonic will be the next new WRL #1, winning at least 1 slam in 2017

playing three ATP 500's in consecutive weeks on different surfaces in 2017.

bump...surprised you stopped posting here bb, made one more semi at a slam since last time thread was updated, think he will still win slams.

bb66 gave up on Dom?

as he is a well observed top10 player since RG'16 there is no need for me posting in this thead reporting his progress. It is still surprising for me he managed to get there without any major backslash in ranking, though his performances on the court where going up and down sometimes.

The only slam he may win is RG I suppose, not sure where he will peak in rankings finally. YEC'17 should be no problem, improving the career high ranking is likely this year, given he skipps the post grass European clay swing to prepare for the American HC season.

I think Thiem has the capability to win 3 out of the 4 slams. I think Wimbledon will be too difficult, but he's a beast on hard courts these days.

Congratulations to Dominic on winning his first grand slam almost seven years after this thread was started. Good pick bb66.

Jul 23, 2017 -- 10:36AM, wisewords wrote:

I think Thiem has the capability to win 3 out of the 4 slams. I think Wimbledon will be too difficult, but he's a beast on hard courts these days.

yeah Man of Steel! yeahhhhhhhhhhh

good thread, bb66. and congrats.

some funny quotes here as well

crazycrazytsonga • January 8, 2014 8:34 AM GMT
He will never win a slam.

__JC_GT__ • March 5, 2014 9:38 PM GMT
This kid is totally overrated. He'll be lucky to fill Tomic's boots.

ArmchairIdiot • August 12, 2014 6:50 PM BST
Just a clay mug in the making. Nothing to see here.

MiltonF • August 12, 2014 8:12 PM BST
Please stop this thread.. he is a useless mug