Andy Murray's march towards the World Number 1 spot in Australia 2014 starts here

problem for Murray is the proximity of Cinncy to the USO and Paris to the O2

he will always tank those events to prepare for the bigger tourneys, so he's losing the best part of 1000 there for a start

best chances to close the gap are O2 and Oz

I hear he is going to give up tennis having achieved his main goal and open an organic veg shop in Notting Hill...!

You should probably be looking towards Murray going to the number 3 spot after Australia . Highly likely he will be number 3 providing Nadal actually plays tennis between now and then.

You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.

Points to defend between now and end of Australian Open:
Djokovic - 8080
Murray - 5650
Nadal - 0

So with that taken into account:
Nadal - 6860
Djokovic - 4230
Murray - 3710

They are better hard court players, but they have to share a lot of the points, I expect Djokovic to dominate on the whole on hard courts. 3150 points is a big gap to catch up.

You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.


what is the very first line

Nadal on hard courts his knees are finnish

The Olympics. Djokovic also loses 270 points.

Jul 8, 2013 -- 4:54AM, AyersRock wrote:

You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.what is the very first line

Nadal on hard courts in 2013. 6/0 100%. . If he can win Indian Wells, I wouldn't count on him being so bad that he can't even post consistent quarter finals +.

n88uk

current rankings

1.    Djokovic Novak      Serbia    12310
2.    Murray Andy      Great Britain    9360


opening post

1.    Djokovic Novak      Serbia    12040
2.    Murray Andy      Great Britain    8610


i already deducted them

that was a slow hard court in indian wells as many players cited, and then he skipped miami

Ok. But all my other points still stand anyway. It's Murray's master series events which massively let him down.

Ayers why are you digging up 2 year old 'Murray will never win a slam' threads when he won a slam last SEPTEMBER?

what other points, nadal looked so bad against darcis I wonder whether he will even bother again, i owuldnt be surprised if he missed the next two masters

and the olympics i explained,

i was highlighting some comments not thread titles lurka, murray has taken such a beating on these forums last two years its time for taste of medicine for at least a day imo

He will play 1 masters warm up to USO.

Murray will have to win at least one of USO or Australia. Djokovic is still very much the favourite for both.

he is barely the favourite both of those going by odds,

Yer but it's a overreaction to Murray beating him at Wimbledon. Eg. Right now Djokovic is a bigger price to win them than he was Wimbledon, well one of those is utter stupidity. Beating Djokovic on grass doesn't have much relevance to what will happen on hard courts.

Also I find this ironic, because I remember discussing with you pre-Wimbledon how Djokovic's price to win it was madness, so you have changed your tune.

i never thought murray would win wimbledon if he played novak but the number 1 spot regardless has never been out of reach or questioned by me becuase he is capable of cleaning up on hc's,

Combining Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris and the O2, between now and the Oz, Murray has 1270 out of a possible 5500 so there is plenty of scope to add more from those if he is motivated

going into 2014 clay he has only 280 points from Rome, Madrid, Monte Carlo and Roland Garros from a maximum 5000 so clearly has plenty to gain there before Wimbledon 2014

he has 4200 to defend from USO, Aus Open and Miami which account for over half his points not including the 2000 from Wimbledon

basically 9 heavy scoring opportunities and 3 where he can lose significant points between now and Wimby 2014

definitely possible if he ups his game in the Masters for a start - 870 to defend between Canada, Cinncy, Paris and Shanghai ffs, could get more than that by winning one of them

He will improve some of those, but others are tough. Eg. Paris, how motivated is he really going into Paris.

Djokovic ultimately is still the best hard court player until we see otherwise.

not that it really counts but I really think Muzz had a shot at winning Oz this year but developed terrible blisters in the second or third set and could not really run. Had he won that match (was a set up, lost breaker in second) after winning USO we might be calling him the best HC player currently considering he also won Miami

anyway, as I said on the first reply, you are correct he will not be trying in Cinnci or Paris so he needs to defend USO title, win O2 and Oz and pick up points on the clay. If he does all that he will be #1

n88uk,

yes or no do you think he will be number 1 by the end of the australian open next year? if not where? #2? #3?

silence is deafening

No.

Second question is too dependent on Nadal's fitness. But I think it's far more likely he is #3 than #1. On the same count I would edge towards #2 being a slight favourite overall.

I agree, no

but only because he is not prioritising it

if he set out to maximise points he could deffo do it but he will sacrifice MS events to focus on slams

there is the chance that Djoko has a mare at some point, like at the O2, and Muzz wins it causing a big swing of points but not likely

my predictions by end of oz (assuming nadal puts in some kinda effort over the n american/asian swing)

#1 murray
#2 djokvic
#3 nadal
#4 federer

see ya later

He claims he is prioritising it btw judorick.

no he doesn't, he said yesterday when asked that he thought #1 was too far away and that he is targeting winning more slam titles over rankings

The problem is if he starts prioritising all those events, it might jeopardise the big events, which then works out overall worse for him. Making number 1 is about conistency across the board. The reason Murray isn't making it, and is nowhere near is because Djokovic is the out and out #2 on clay, Murray is barely in the top 10, that is where he can't catch Djoko.

Very different interview to he's given in the past judorick. That is code for I am not good enough for #1, and is a PR answer anyway.

That is the line Serena gave for years, and then when she finally got back to #1 she was in tears over it.

#1 would be worth absolutely gazillions to someone like Murray in his contracts.

It's hard for Murray to focus on something that he is miles away from isn't it.

well I follow everything on daily basis and his twitter, he has just said that his next priority is to defend the USO title

if he does that then he might re-address the no.1 issue

but he's not gonna go balls out in Canada and Cinncy to get the points for the ranking at the expense of defending the USO (have you seen how close Cinncy is to USO?)

like wise he won't be going all out in Paris

so to get there, he will need to defend USO, win O2 and Oz

the interview was yesterday after the match and he was asked directly 'will you be focusing on the #1 now?'

and his reply was 'winning slam titles is my priority'

Cincinnati the same distance to USO as Queens?

was to Wimbledon.

The same distance as Brisbane to AO.

A lot of slam winners win that tournament 2 weeks before.

yes but it is back to back with Canada

If he goes deep/wins in Canada you can expect a tactical QF tank or injury scare withdrawal at Cinncy

can't see Murray ever being no.1 while he is a flop on clay

Djokovic  will pick too many points up over the 3 masters + FO to make it too difficult

aarong he's been in a RG semi final, he can play, chose to tank the whole season to be ready for Wimbledon imo

aarong

long before the clay, Djoko has 4700 to defend from USO + O2 + AUS

Murray has 3600, if you flip the scores the gap is close and Murray has only 280 from the whole clay season

he needs to start beating top 10 players on the surface lol. It's kinda lame that there is no grass court masters still

Murray will just have to 3 slams and YEC instead

well he can worry about that after AUS, IW and Miami

if he wants to improve his rankings he has every chance between now and the start of the clay season, it's a matter of whether he wants to or not

Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Tokyo, Paris, O2, AUS and Indian Wells - can improve points by just going one round, or more, further

USO and Miami can lose points if not winning the tournament

he will win one of Canada and Cincy, depends which one he wants to lol

much like IW and Miami, having back to back masters is really stupid

even more so when the whole of July is empty apart from 250s pretty much

IW and Miami back to back is fine imo since they're spread out over an entire month and don't have a slam seven days later.

Nadal will be number 1 come Australia.

Jul 8, 2013 -- 6:42AM, aaronh wrote:

he will win one of Canada and Cincy, depends which one he wants to lolmuch like IW and Miami, having back to back masters is really stupid

Jul 8, 2013 -- 4:55AM, AyersRock wrote:

Nadal on hard courts his knees are finnish

his knees are finished, finished for the big occasions, not a chance he win ever again, US or AUS, not unles he gets lucky and doesnt face murr-djok in the best of 5, stupiod killing himself to win two masters back to back a week before a slam, his knees will pay for it

Chief Nadull hater signing in here but you can't underestimate him ffs

if/when hes losing in his semi final he pulled out retired nap

from some other posts it would appear that Murray doesnt want to become world number one.

Aug 18, 2013 -- 10:21AM, AyersRock wrote:

his knees are finished, finished for the big occasions, not a chance he win ever again, US or AUS, not unles he gets lucky and doesnt face murr-djok in the best of 5, stupiod killing himself to win two masters back to back a week before a slam, his knees will pay for it

Aug 18, 2013 -- 10:21AM, AyersRock wrote:

his knees are finished, finished for the big occasions, not a chance he win ever again, US or AUS, not unles he gets lucky and doesnt face murr-djok in the best of 5, stupiod killing himself to win two masters back to back a week before a slam, his knees will pay for it

Can he keep his #3 spot ahead of Ferrer is the only question left now.

Paris, Shanghai, Valencia, he has 1500 points to defend, Ferrer 600. Maybe Nadal and Djok take some time off, otherwise...

My bad, Ferrer won Paris, not Murray. So he probably hangs on.

Short term no. Long term yes. If Ferrer had won one more match here, he would have gone above Murray in the rankings.

Ferrer has 0 to defend in Asia. Murray has semi's in Tokyo and final in Shanghai.

Obviously Ferrer won Paris though, so longer term if he loses it Murray should get it back quickly.

You're right, should still be #3 at the AO.

There's no difference between #3 and #4 if the worst comes to worst anyway.

you spend 7 months injured with dodgy knees than comeback and win 10 titles and 2 slams beating the best player in the world,

something is amiss,

I am a Nadal fan and over the years it has been amusing seeing him prove people wrong time and time again

But this comeback is pretty unbelievable given all his 'problems', if defies human nature

His two longest lay offs in 2009 and last year, have been followed by his best two years on the tour

drugged up to the eyeballs

He shouldn't fall below #4 unless someone outside Djokovic, Nadal and Ferrer goes on a tear for the rest of the season.

if he has a good start to 2014 at least he can look forward to starting with a blank canvas and  picking up points on the Asian swing next year with no pressure to defend a lot of points, at this rate though it'll be 2015 by the time he's in with a chance of #N°1

be interesting to see if Murray comes back better then ever like Nadal  - on the other hand he may have a genuine injury not like Nadal's knees nonsense

Sep 19, 2013 -- 11:54PM, A_T wrote:

be interesting to see if Murray comes back better then ever like Nadal

Another hater.

and a double space merchant to boot