Tennis
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will be 26°c with 10mph wind according to the forecast for friday, the sun/heat helps nadal and his 'spin' as it changes the surface nature to give it more zip on bounce , his first 4 matches were on cold, windy days hence average performances and dropped sets in R1 +R2 so Novak can't even have that advantage, I wouldn't bother reading anything into the thrashing of wawa, he was burnt out and has always been rafas whipping boy, this is the only match on tour that nadal has to adapt to to win - he won't dominate the baseline rallys and will have to make more unnatural net approaches, expect an epic either way,
I'm laying Nadal, he will trade higher no doubt
I'm laying Nadal, he will trade higher no doubt
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Like you say Ayers the weather suits Rafa, I'm with Rafa but I would say the odds should be much closer than present. How windy does it have to be to affect Novak?
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whoever you back, just back them on the outright for a bigger price
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Yeah that's what I have been telling my mates. One thing I always noticed is Novak doesn't seem to like the slice to his backhand, he is forced to generate his own pace and more times than you would expect he hits the net.
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It's a shame we only got to see one match between them before this. Based on that alone it's difficult to get a reading of how things might play out. Djokovic was ridiculous in the first set at Monte Carlo, but Nadal hadn't played him in months and was taken a little off guard I suspect. He could have won the second set despite Djoker's impressive performance.
There was something about Djokovic's performance today though that was almost machine like. Rafa played better than he has, but Djoker had Haas clinging on to every service game whilst winning his own with an ease that I haven't seen from him before. |
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Right okay Madness but with all respect to Haas at 35 he is no spring chicken and after the epic matches he has had this week there was bound to be some fatigue. He had his chance when 4 -2 up in the tie break (if he could have made it one set all who knows) honestly Novak hasn't overly impressed me with his last two performances. Maybe I'm deluded I'm not sure, he has been good without being great imo - was impressed in Monte Carlo but I have watched that back so many times and Rafa wasn't at it, his footwork wasn't great, forehand was lacking, seemed sluggish around the court, no matter what Novak won't get it as easy as he did in that first set in Monte Carlo.
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why the **** is the match on so early ???
I've got a dentist appointment at 11  |
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what time is it on
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HOW YOU KNOW WHEN THIS AINT EVEN ON TILL FRIDAY
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 oh yeahgood point beano |
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Rafa has looked like he has been improving match by match, and the weather conditions will certainly suit him. Just cannot oppose him at RG. Djoko will make it tough for him but still fancy Rafa to win in 4 or 5 sets.
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11am according to betfair, 12 noon according to livescore
can't be right, can it ? |
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well your first mistake is trusting anything betfail say
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bean should be right, confirmed time won't be out yet
and likely afternoon starts anyway |
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The first semi at 13 local time (tournament schedule). I would guess they put Tsonga first, what do you reckon?
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Yeah it'll be afternoon for sure!
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this beautiful match gonna ease your pain after dentist
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nadals moonball backhand shot will get exposed again, i can see him only win 1 set against novak
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djok has to be the play at these odds. Nadal struggles bigtime with that double handed backhand cross court. Even fognini had success with it against him first set. Djok able to take the ball early and hit winners, returns better than rafa, able to get as many balls back etc. Also the big factor that rafa's serve is there to attack, just don't see him having as many easy service games as djokovic. Can see why rafa is favourite due to his past record here, but taking into account the h2h matches you have to be backing djokovic at these odds.
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novak was tanking the other 2 matches on clay against berdych and dimitrov, he never wanted to give nadal the chance the gain the upper hand
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Pretty much the same odds as monte carlo, is it christmas again? Djoker is in nadals head. He will dominate him , nadal will fight back all be it to late.
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The market makes the assumption that best of 5 suits Nadal is the reason for that.
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backed nadal months ago.but got a bad feeling this week when ready djokers former trainer died.always seems to spur players on.have put a few quid on him to win 2moro.hope it loses tho.this is the final for me
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I think Nadal should be favourite, maybe not quite as big a favourite as the market has him though.
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Joker in Nadals head on clay, is he feck slickman. If I had no money on it then I would like to see Nole win, but seeing as I will have my bank on Nadal then selfishly I need a Nadal win. Barring injuries I cannot see Nole beating him, but I have been wrong once or twice before
 As has been said dry & windy plays into Nadals hands. |
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AGREE NADAL, DJOC,NOT FULLY FIT.
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Nadal was about 1.43 in the final last year. It was fairly windy then and djok was far from impressive the whole tournament last year, tsonga had MPs (5 i think?) against him and Seppi took him to 5 sets too. Nadal beat him in 3/3 matches on clay last year, all finals.
Today was more like 2011 djok and the djok from Monte Carlo this year, his serve stats took a huge jump today and he was hitting the lines. I thought haas was more impressive than wawrinka too. Don't think stan was near 100% today and he has never taken a set from rafa even when he has been. If he plays like today again then he will win in 3 or 4 sets IMO and is huge value, can't see rafa living with that. But not so sure he will so I'll wait to see if he does, should be able to tell early enough in the match. |
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aaronh
whoever you back, just back them on the outright for a bigger price --------------- now, since HE said that, I know that the outright is not going to be Djok nor Nadal.  |
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or if you think so, why don't you back Nadal @1.87 in outright, and lay him @1.67 in s/f?? So, you'll get 20 tips for free!
...and then he loses first two sets to Tsonga in the final, or loses first set in the final, and plays TB i second against Tsonga???  |
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You mean Ferrer in the final, of course.
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Nadal vs Djokovic 1pm CET. Followed by Ferrer vs Tsonga.
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lurka said..."Nadal was about 1.43 in the final last year."
Nadal was exactly 1.302 (ave of all matched bets on here) last year as the match started and he was shortening pre match. He may have been close to 1.43 in first set 3-3 0-15, that's the only point (and I mean the only POINT) in the match Nadal was behind, so it's very unlikely he would have gone over that price. ..... Pity this is'nt the final, it certainly deserves to be. As has been said by others, Nadal deserves to be favourite and odds are just about right, so no H2H bet pre match. Had some big turnover on the set betting in the Wednesday quarter final matches, but this will be as good as both of those matches combined. |
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Rain
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shiraz I think though not 100% certain that Nadal was a bigger price when down a break in the 4th set overnight than he was pre-match.
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Because it looked like the match had turned heavily at that point.
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That's fine n88uk, I am happy to be wrong in that respect, I don't keep those figures, but I am 100% certain of start price = 1.302. I am only pointing out something wrong, just in case people assume it is correct and make decisions on this match based on that. i.e. I am only trying to help.
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OK, no worries, but this is not correct pre match "Nadal was about 1.43 in the final last year".
Anyway, I think anyone reading this can get the gist, which is all I want. |
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but you are right about the SP, it was about 1.38 and came in to 1.3 pre-off
graph is here http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/06/11/rain-stops-play-starts-trade/ |
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To be fair, Djokovic was all over him because of the rain...
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