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NicolNicol
23 May 13 10:04
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Date Joined: 24 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 593 | Blogger: NicolNicol's blog
I'm going to tell you my picks for Dussledorf, and you should tell me yours.

Match 1 - Juan Monaco vs Tobias Kamke

Clay record
Monaco: 14 wins, 8 losses.
Kamke:   4 wins, 6 losses.

Last 25 matches:
Monaco: Winning .50 of serves, winning .56 of returns.
Kamke: Winning .48 of serves. winning .33 of returns.

Head to head:
Monaco: 3 wins (2 of which were on clay during the last 12 months)
Kamke: 0 wins
They've never gone to 3 sets

This is pretty clear-cut because Kamke is just not of the same class. Monaco was 1.33, when I got him, implying .75 winning chances. I put him in the .85->.9 range, here. Even the motivation, I feel, is there for Monaco. Although he is a noted clay-court player, and the French will be his best slam, he should feel that he has a better chance here, with the barely talented field now that Tipsarevic and Kohlschreiber have pulled out. I wouldn't buy him for any less than 1.20 though.

How do you guys feel about this match?

I will make my next pick before Pella-Troicki starts.
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Report prele_ May 23, 2013 12:29 PM BST
probably 3 sets
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 12:35 PM BST
pella for me
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 12:37 PM BST
im waiting the first 4 games
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 12:37 PM BST
then i decide
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 12:37 PM BST
Please tell me I don't have to sit through the doubles to get to this game.
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 12:38 PM BST
you don't have to sit through the doubles to get to this game.
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 12:42 PM BST
:D
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 12:44 PM BST
http://www.atpworldtour.com/scores/schedule.aspx?year=2013&eventid=6710

As a viewer, I'd really like for the singles to all be on center court 1 and the doubles to all be on center court two. But I guess it makes sense from their point of view to split the crowds.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 12:48 PM BST
Really torn about whether to enjoy the Troicki game or do research for Hajek-Sijling. About forty minutes until the coin toss over there.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 12:54 PM BST
Serve points won after 3 games:
Pella - .22
Troicki - .20
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:04 PM BST
crazy point by Pellafella
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:10 PM BST
what do you think of querrey vs vaseline?
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 1:19 PM BST
I'm not too sure about that one. My gut tells me Querrey might have a rough time. His record on clay recently has been poor right? But that is without looking at any stats or watching the match, so I'm not to be trusted.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 1:20 PM BST
Back here, not looking auspicious for Troicki. Too many UEs, too many second serves. It's like he hasn't even turned up today. The only way I'm winning this bet is if a) he lifts his form b) I get very very lucky
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:20 PM BST
he just gave away 3bps at 0-40
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 1:21 PM BST
Net cord! That counts as luck, right?
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:27 PM BST
tibreak :)
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:28 PM BST
+e
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:28 PM BST
querrey looks solid atm
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:28 PM BST
backed him at 2.05
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:28 PM BST
my green is on pella
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:32 PM BST
Oh Pella...
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 1:33 PM BST
Haha. It is almost as if they are both trying to gift each other the first set.
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:34 PM BST
lol, DF
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:34 PM BST
7-6 Pella
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:36 PM BST
Querrey lost 1 points in 3 service games so far
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:36 PM BST
-s
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:39 PM BST
and now he breaks from 0-30 behind, lol
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 1:39 PM BST
I like it when Querrey is doing well. He has been one of my favourite players ever since that tiebreak last year to Tipsarevic where he came back from being down 2-5 to win the third set.
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:40 PM BST
i remember that, i had money on tipsa^^
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:47 PM BST
6-3 querrey, nice
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:51 PM BST
oh, Pella broke
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 1:51 PM BST
Yep, 3 breaks of service to start the second set.
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 1:53 PM BST
funny those two, here comes break 4
Report Quotenschubser May 23, 2013 1:54 PM BST
or not
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 1:59 PM BST
i like querrey for his epic chokes
Report Quotenschubser May 23, 2013 1:59 PM BST
i ll be very proud of troicki if he doesnt gets broken back from 40-0
Report Quotenschubser May 23, 2013 2:00 PM BST
so impressed... should be bankjob troicki now *ironie*
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 2:07 PM BST
let's hope that pelican sam won't disappoint me today
Report Juan Seba May 23, 2013 2:07 PM BST
What a useless way to get your serve broken... Two absolute mong shots from Troicki
Report sarausa May 23, 2013 2:17 PM BST
Pella Laugh
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:18 PM BST
both mugs
Report sarausa May 23, 2013 2:19 PM BST
Both Excited
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:22 PM BST
come on Pella / Querrey
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:22 PM BST
I agree! Absolutely pathetic. I'd already written that match off at the start of the second. Let's keep the ball rolling:

Tommy Haas vs Jarkko Nieminen

We all remember Haas' excellent run a couple of weeks ago to take the title in Munich, and his horrific loss to David Ferrer the week after in Rome, where he seemed to throw everything he had at the Spaniard.

Haas' recent form:
Last 25: Winning .65 of serves, winning .50 of returns
Last 10: Winning .65 of serves, winning .33 of returns

Nieminen's recent form:
Last 25: Winning .61 of serves, winning .51 of returns
Last 10: Winning .59 of serves, winning .29 of returns

There are a couple of ways to interpret Haas' matches after that Ferrer match. The most popular one here on the forums was that he was throwing his match to Youzhny, or at least not trying because he wanted to conserve his energy for the French open. The other, which I like, is that maybe he just threw everything he had at Ferrer and was physically depleted after it. Maybe a little injured?

2013 Clay Record:
Haas:     7 wins, 3 losses
Nieminen: 4 wins, 4 losses

So, more time has passed. He should be refreshed/recovered. He is in front of his home crowd (his last title was in Munich, also in Germany). He is the favourite of the whole field by far. I'd like to think that he'll get aggressive and push Nieminen off.

I'm going to make a small back on Nieminen. My hit rate so far is .50 (if Troicki loses, which no doubt he will). So I'm playing for a .33 or .66 strike rate tonight.

What do you think about Haas-Nieminen? Who will win?
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:23 PM BST
Haas, without a doubt
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 2:23 PM BST
haas will win of course
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:24 PM BST
especially in Germany
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:24 PM BST
nemo is a mug²
Report sarausa May 23, 2013 2:25 PM BST
Troicki is there only for fun.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:26 PM BST
He sure doesn't look like he is having fun!
Report Juan Seba May 23, 2013 2:27 PM BST
This is one of the worst matches I have seen in some time... Neither player is any good, Monaco will batter both in the Semi Final
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:29 PM BST
Boom Pella
Report sarausa May 23, 2013 2:30 PM BST
Good training session for Troicki.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:31 PM BST
jin_kazz, great call. Terrible match, though.
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 2:31 PM BST
i felt that viktor gonna tank today
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:32 PM BST
6-7 vaseline
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 2:32 PM BST
sam q-ray LoveLoveLoveLove
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:32 PM BST
so typical, no problem with his serve ever, losing tiebreak 2-7
Report sarausa May 23, 2013 2:33 PM BST
Odds on Haas from 1.35 to 1.52.
Report GRANTCKING May 23, 2013 2:34 PM BST
querry is a horrific tennis player
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:35 PM BST
Up on the other court the win just has to be sealed for Igor Sijsling. I didn't end up looking at any stats or any of the match, except for now that I'm waiting for Haas, (and I don't really know much about Sijsling) so I can't say which way I would have leaned. Good for him, though. I'm looking forward to seeing him play tomorrow.

It looks like up next, I'm playing to break even! Not my desired position for the night, but I'll take it.
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 2:38 PM BST
sijsling is like mueller but with one handed backhand

serve and volley mostly

was big choker recently but he's not choking so often these days :(
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:40 PM BST
instabreak
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 2:42 PM BST
sam the man
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:48 PM BST
nd misses chance to break
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:49 PM BST
another bp
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:49 PM BST
wasted
Report edy May 23, 2013 2:50 PM BST
Tommy Haas has withdrawn
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:50 PM BST
take it ffs
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:51 PM BST
I think I can make out the word "larger" in his German right now. Withdraw possibly due to hangover.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:51 PM BST
lager*
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:52 PM BST
Well done Sammy
Report edy May 23, 2013 2:53 PM BST
They still give Tommy a trophy, that's nice
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:54 PM BST
The trophy is a giant **** and it is for being a giant ****.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:54 PM BST
Aw c'mon auto-censor. I meant like a rooster!
Report edy May 23, 2013 2:54 PM BST
No no, it's the fair play trophy for being a super cool dude Happy
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:56 PM BST
So I guess Monaco is my pick. He really needs a title, as his ranking is based on older wins and is set to drop to around the 40's in the coming months.
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 2:56 PM BST
monaco played good
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 2:56 PM BST
That should be motivation enough.
Report caramba May 23, 2013 2:56 PM BST
What was the reason, and did he say anything about RG?
Report edy May 23, 2013 2:57 PM BST
He's slightly ill with a fever
Report edy May 23, 2013 2:58 PM BST
and he didn't say anything about RG, just that he's sorry for not being able to play today and that he decided to withdraw rather than play a lame set and retire.
Report prele_ May 23, 2013 2:59 PM BST
Querrey is such a mug
Report caramba May 23, 2013 3:00 PM BST
ah ok, thanks. thought it was the hamstring or whatever it was he had issues with last week against youzhny.
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 3:13 PM BST
Well I might have time to check out another match before bedtime since Haas retired. Looking at Montanes and Mathieu over at ATP Nice. Close odds, and I'm not sure that I'm going to have a bet. I sort of did all of my prep for Dussledorf today.
Report jin_kazz May 23, 2013 3:17 PM BST
it's not in dusseldorf
Report NicolNicol May 23, 2013 3:17 PM BST
Yep, I wasn't sure where the conversation about it was.
Report NicolNicol May 24, 2013 10:36 AM BST
I'm going out tonight, so I will miss the first match and maybe the second. But here are my picks:

Monaco, Sijsling.

What are yours?
Report jin_kazz May 24, 2013 11:09 AM BST
thinking the same
Report madverassocks May 24, 2013 12:07 PM BST
Monaco is in cruise mode and not faced any threat on his serve so far against Pella, should be over pretty soon by the looks of it.
Report jin_kazz May 24, 2013 2:23 PM BST
nice jinx :)
Report Danyo May 24, 2013 3:51 PM BST
Sijsling what a damn collapsing mug. 5-4 and serving for the set.... loses it 5-7
Report mouse trap May 24, 2013 4:01 PM BST
^ studied from the same textbook as Bouchard
Report NicolNicol May 24, 2013 4:22 PM BST
Yeah pathetic tennis, but it's expected at Dussledorf! I'm expecting a mediocre 3 setter here.
Report NicolNicol May 24, 2013 4:24 PM BST
Just realized I aftertimed on that ^^ We can all tell that it is mediocre from what we've seen so far.
Report NicolNicol May 24, 2013 4:32 PM BST
Commentator: "He looked the stronger player in the first set but just wasn't able to keep the momentum going... lost 4 games in a row."
Report Danyo May 24, 2013 4:49 PM BST
can't keep momentum in third either. Nieminen takes this.
Report RyanGiggs May 24, 2013 4:59 PM BST
nice fixers Sijsling and Nieminen stupid idiots and nothing else to add
Report NicolNicol May 24, 2013 5:04 PM BST
If you bet on Sijsling just now, don't get too distraught over your loss. That was basically a coin flip between two inept players and if you keep rooting out those matches and getting > 2.5, you're going to lose a lot of them but you'll end up in front.
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