Profitable players (discussion)

I understand we can’t take retrospective analysis for future predictions, but surely there is might be some point in it.

That is the only method you can use of predicting matches, otherwise each would be 50:50.

But you have to have knowledge too and to statistically check both players.

If you said, oh yes, Nishikori, he is playing Murray today, and has just won the first set. He wins more than 90% of matches from this position, and Murray seems to have an injury, so the 1.2s on Nishikori is a good price, you would be wrong.

For a start, you would be ignoring the knowledge that Murray pretends to be injured a lot. You would not have checked the Murray stats which show that he is the best player in the mens' game at winning from a set behind.

Combine the two statistics and get what you think the odds should be, add in a bit of knowledge of how and why the odds may be different to what that shows, and then bet if you think the odds are wrong.

Well it´s possible to take a quantitative approach and looking for yield clusters.

Apart from all that analysis, markets have become much more sharper over the last 2-3 years. It was quite easy to make money inplay. No bots and odds on favs usually plunged once they´d won the 1st set, allowing tons of cheap lays.

E.g. Blake-Seppi, starting odds around 1.15, 1.01/02 during the 2nd set w/o a break.

The best approach for me was early identifying of players on the upswing. Downswing is a bit trickier since it is rarely so straightforward.

Kerber is a great example, with added bonus that she is STILL undervalued after all this time.

Ferrer is a workhorse and quite reliable, one of the easiest player to predict.
Zvonareva few years back was absolutely incredible at defeating medium and weak players without problems.
Bartoli is a fighter, also has been incredibly profitable for me even though I hear that she was unprofitable from statistical standpoint. Maybe I just have a knack for when to back her.

Players who love to give up are superbly profitable too, especially with streams on. Ivanovic comes to mind

hi, i will not speak about less profitable players, but the one that i never lost money is in Tipsa. he is always at nice odds. i saw him choke once vs berdych from 5-1 to 5-7 after that exemplar. obvious that vs top 3 is other level.

Bartoli is one of the most profitable players at low odds.

for a long time Wozniacki and Azarenka were my most profitable players vs lower ranked players, they were climbing in the top10 then, think it was 2009/10. Also BEPA was very consistent over some months around that time.

also ARad in the last third '11 and first third this year

Srichaphan or Ancic? • August 23, 2012 2:43 PM BST
Bartoli is one of the most profitable players at low odds.

1/10 VS Lucic at Wimbledon

most important is to realize when the form deteriorates

Cibulkova, Bartoli, particularly when serving - they can be better receiving than serving at times. Kirilenko at either v low odds or v high odds is always worth a punt too, she is capable of huge comebacks for or against her - she lost from 1.01 recently and took venus williams from 1.01 to 1.6 last week. Verdasco, Almagro, Troicki when they go below 1.07 for the first time usually come out. they tend to switch off mentally when they are ahead.

Ljubo was the best just before retirement.. all he had left was the serve.. it was a lay on sight machine...

DavyDenko is heading that way... lay lay lay.. all day.

Nice one , also thought of Davydenko he is just like us punter at the bookie.

Last time there was a strange odds moving pre-off when he was playing with Haase R. drifted from 1.5 to 1.9 someone knows something. It’s hilarious he has been talked since 2007, everybody who has eyes says he is not clean. But you never know when Kolya plays is he going to tank.

So who's laying Wozniacki today?

Does anyone use "oncourt" tennis statistical software which seems to be very useful?

my favourite betting has to be when you watch the match live and tiring players. I only ever bet seriously if i can watch the match. Raonic is a player who i think has huge money making potential over the next couple of years, not just from the win point because of his serving but also when he starts to tire, i made very good money against him in the olympic epic vs Tsonga, he was the better player for a long time but eventually started to tire, also just last week he tired in his match against Wawrinka after tough matches against Gasquet/Baghdatis/Berdych on consecutive days.

So for me success in Tennis betting is about being able to read the signs and choosing when to move. Grand slams like the US and AUS, where temperatures can be very high, are a great place to make good money on tiring players (especially mainly challenger players going 4/5 sets)

Aug 23, 2012 -- 10:29AM, yarik wrote:

Does anyone use "oncourt" tennis statistical software which seems to be very useful?

I tried the demo, not too bad but has some errors.

great post blobbylob.

I have significantly increased my greens since I started betting only on matches with live video.
In a one on one sport like tennis, it's hugely important to be able to see players reactions, and like you said, read signs. How motivated they seem, how tired they become, if they are struggling at some kinds of shots in that particular match, etc..
That makes all the difference to me in betting successfully.